저자: RaoulPal&TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
AI/에너지→지능 전환을 글로벌 자본 경쟁으로 규정하며 유동성 확대와 화폐 희석이 지속된다고 주장. 최근 비트코인 급락(12.6만→6만달러)은 강세장 내 조정이며 장기 상승 확장 가능성이 크다고 봄. 금리 정책 전환과 AI 생산성 개선이 위험자산에 우호적이라는 전망.
다듬은 글
This market could be the biggest capital shift in modern history. What we're witnessing right now is the early stage of a global race, one that's pulling , liquidity expansion, and digital assets at the same time. And according to Raoul Pal, this race is unstoppable. He calls it the conversion of energy into intelligence, a system so powerful that no government, no corporation, and no market force can slow it down.
Capital is being forced into this trend, and crypto sits right at the center of it. At the same time, global liquidity is expanding, currencies are being debased, and the real hurdle rate to build wealth is now over 11% per year. If you are not outperforming that, you are falling behind. But, here's where it gets interesting.
While many investors are panicking over recent price drops, Raoul Pal says this is not a bear market. It is a correction inside a much larger bull cycle, and history shows that these phases often lead to even bigger expansions on the other side. Tom Lee adds another layer to this. He believes the market is entering a phase where AI is no longer just hype.
It is delivering real productivity. Companies are cutting costs, output is increasing, and this shift is creating massive winners. Combined with the potential shift in Federal Reserve policy, this could become a major tailwind for risk assets like crypto. In this video, we are breaking down Raoul Pal's everything code, why this AI-driven capital race is too big to fail, what these brutal corrections really mean, and how Tom Lee's macro view could signal the next explosive move in crypto.
're going through the most extraordinary time in human history. Nothing [snorts] else matters. This whole funneling of all capital into intelligence is the biggest race that's ever happened. Mhm. It's the race of nations, it's the race of corporations, it's the race of everybody. And so, of course it's going to suck every single piece of capital because you can't slow it down.
Tell me more about this race. There is no world in which you can allow one superpower to have AGI. Mhm. So, there has to be two. There's only two nations in the world who can afford to do it. That's the US and China. No nation can now game theory suggests that no nation can now stop because the other one will get the advantage.
So, there is nothing that can stop this. Now, it doesn't mean we can't have a bear market at some point, whatever, but even then you play through things like people will fearing like there's people borrowing money and this is all going to blow up. Okay, let's say let's say OpenAI blows up. They run out of money.
That's the doom mongers thing. What happens the next second that's announced? Is the US going to say, "Oh, we're going to lose one of the largest AI firms?" They're going to say "Right, what we're going to do is we're going to auction off the assets immediately to Microsoft, Google, and everybody else who will buy them in seconds because if they sell it to one company, that one company doubles their computer overnight and then wins the entire game, which you can't allow either.
You can't allow one company to have the advantage." So, the game is so big that nobody will stop. All of the Iran game, all of the Venezuela game, it's all the same game. It's converting which I call the universal code, converting units of energy into units of intelligence. Every single process is this.
So, the So, it's too big to fail. We are in the middle of what Raoul Pal calls the biggest capital shift in human history. This is not about hype or narratives. This is about a global race that no one can afford to lose. Right now, every Every nation and every major corporation is competing in a single direction and that direction is artificial intelligence.
This is not optional. This is not a trend that fades. This is a forced allocation of capital at a scale we have never seen before. Trillions of dollars are being redirected into compute, data, and intelligence infrastructure and that flow is accelerating. Raoul Pal frames this as the conversion of energy into intelligence.
Every system, every company, and every government is being pulled into this transformation. And the key detail most people miss is that this race cannot stop. If one player slows down, another one gains the advantage. That creates a game theory scenario where capital must keep flowing no matter what.
Even in extreme scenarios, the system keeps moving. If a major artificial intelligence company collapses, its assets do not disappear. They are instantly absorbed by competitors, the infrastructure, the talent, and the compute get redistributed, and the race continues. Nothing actually stops. This is why Raoul Pal calls it too big to fail.
The stakes are simply too high and when capital flows at this scale, it does not stay contained in one sector. It spills over into every asset class that benefits from exponential growth and global liquidity. And that is where crypto enters the picture because if this is the largest capital race in history, then the assets connected to digital networks, liquidity expansion, and technological adoption are positioned to absorb a massive share of that flow.
But, if that is true, then why does the market still experience these brutal draw downs that shake out at the worst possible time? So, for you Bitcoin going from 126 down to 60k is is not a bear market? No. It's a nasty correction. It's a It's a nasty correction in a bull market. Now, I've been in crypto since 2013.
I've seen many corrections, non-bear markets, of 50% in Bitcoin. But, people get this every time. And when that happens to Bitcoin, others go down more. We talked about this in the past. There's a risk curve. It's natural. Happens all the time. I think it was Solana last cycle did down 80 in uh in 2021 before it before it had that massive run.
And that was in a bull market year with liquidity flowing. Happens all the time. Happened to Ethereum. Happened to So, it happens all the time. The difference is in 2021 when Bitcoin went down 50%. Yeah. It was pretty quick. Went down and then it went back up also very quickly and then it went down [clears throat] and it was a bear market.
This time around it's kind of choppy and it takes time and months and So, That's probably why people are Yeah. And what might might you get from the other side of it? You might get a longer, more persistent, larger bull market, right? Cuz don't forget the the Bitcoin pull back in 2021, as you said, was it was what?
So, from January to July. And then it was back all-time highs in November. So, it's actually 6 months of falling. So, when did Bitcoin make its all-time high? December last year? I think. Mhm. So, it's only Yeah, only went down the same equivalent number of months. Didn't go down that long. Um but let's see.
The longer it takes to go up, the more extended it becomes, I think. If you have been in crypto long enough, you have seen this exact movie before. Prices drop fast, sentiment flips negative, and suddenly everyone starts calling for a bear market. But according to Raoul Pal, that is not what is happening here.
All we are seeing right now is a correction inside a larger bull cycle. And that distinction matters more than most people realize. Bitcoin has historically dropped around 50% multiple times during strong uptrends. This is not unusual. It is part of how the market resets leverage, shakes out weak hands, and prepares for the next move higher.
And it is not just Bitcoin. When Bitcoin pulls back, the rest of the market follows with even deeper drawdowns. Higher risk assets tend to fall more, sometimes dramatically. In previous cycles, assets like Solana dropped as much as 80% before going on to deliver massive upside within the same broader bull phase.
The difference this time is the structure of the correction. Instead of a fast collapse and recovery, the market has been moving sideways and choppy for months. That kind of price action wears people down, creates doubt, it makes investors question whether the cycle is over. But historically, longer consolidations often lead to more extended bull markets.
The more time the market spends building a base, the more energy it stores for the next expansion phase. And we are already starting to see early signs of that shift. Liquidity conditions are stabilizing, institutional flows through spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to accumulate over time despite volatility, and macro indicators that were previously weak are starting to turn.
Even manufacturing data has begun to show signs of recovery, hinting that growth could reaccelerate. Right. So, while the short-term feels uncertain, the structure beneath the surface is starting to strengthen. And if this really is just a reset within a larger uptrend, then the next phase may not just be a recovery, it could be something much bigg; The everything code is that idea that because of debt, debt, and demographics, we're debasing currency to replace the aging population.
And that debasing of currency is the trend that matters the most. So, we can see from this chart that you guys should be familiar with by now that we are by using the total liquidity measure, that's all global liquidity, we're growing at an 8% annualized rate. Right now, we're growing at about 10%, but average over time with the down cycles as well, you grow at about 8%.
So, that's 8% loss of of the power of the denominator, your purchasing power. That keeps going down. On top, you'll have average maybe another 3% inflation. Inflation is separate to debasement. Debasement is when the value of your currency or your savings goes down versus long-term assets. CPI is when it goes down versus the cost of goods and services.
They're both different things, so you have to add them together. You'll get to an 11% hurdle rate of which if you're if you're if your returns aren't beating that 11%, you're actually getting poorer every year. And this is the one thing that's making the rich richer, the poor poorer, is poor people weren't able to invest as easily.
Now, crypto changed a lot of that because it's more fractionalizable, it's also globally accessible. But, that's where we are now. There is a hidden force in the global economy that most people never fully understand. And according to Raoul Pal, it is the single most important driver behind why assets like crypto continue to rise over time.
He calls it the everything code. At its core, this idea is simple. The global system is built on debt and aging populations. Governments are forced to print money and expand liquidity just to keep the system functioning. That means the value of currency is constantly being diluted whether people realize it or not.
Right now, global liquidity has been growing at an average rate of around 8% per year. That is not a short-term anomaly. That is a long-term trend driven by structural forces. On top of that, you have inflation, which adds another layer of pressure on purchasing power. When you combine both, you arrive at a critical number, roughly 11% per year.
That is the real hurdle rate. If your investments are not outperforming that level, then in real terms, you are losing wealth every single year. And this is where the gap between different groups begins to widen. Those who own assets that can outpace debasement continue to grow richer. Those who hold cash or low-yielding instruments fall behind over time.
It is not about working harder, it is about being positioned in the right asset. This is one of the reasons crypto has gained so much traction globally. It offers accessibility, divisibility, and exposure to high-growth networks that can potentially outperform this debasement cycle. At the same time, recent data shows liquidity conditions are picking up again after periods of tightening.
That shift matters because liquidity is the fuel that drives risk assets higher. So, if the system itself is designed to debase currency over time, then the question is not whether assets will rise. It is which assets are positioned to benefit the most when that liquidity wave accelerates again. Why aren't you worried right now?
Um you know, one thing an adage that came from Art Cashin, the late Art Cashin, is that bull markets don't die of old age. Um they get killed by the Fed. So, um yeah, so something to keep in mind is that just because stocks have done well, doesn't mean that they can't continue to do well. And I know we'll get cover this in our conversation today, but I think in 2026, we are starting to see the other side of the payoff from AI.
Um and it's creating winners and losers. And uh I think that we are getting a policy shift from the Fed, which also is a tailwind. So, I think in many ways, there are reasons for people to want to buy buy stocks this year. And what's going on right now? I mean, we've seen even in just the last couple weeks, right?
Software stocks down a ton, crypto down a ton. And we'll get into crypto a little more specifically later. Does a period like this start to freak you out? Does it change the thesis at all? Um well, I think many people in the audience have been following the story for the last 2 years, which has been uh AI like as a juggernaut.
You know, people already have exposure. But as Liz pointed out, there is something that's different this year. All of a sudden, a lot of stocks and industries are starting to have shrinkage. So, the software industry for instance, is seeing shrinking demand and a repricing of their service. And there's now many research reports pointing out that agentic AI products or AI products are starting to replace traditional software.
And then as you know, there's even stories of uh technology employment has shrunk in the last 3 years since the introduction of chat GPT. It's a shrinking share of employment. And college graduates unemployment rate is now higher than non-college students of the same age. Now, that is like what you might think is the bad news story and that's what's the headlines right now.
But think of it the other way. That's productivity for the economy. This is how you measure productivity is that you produce more output with less people. So, that's proof that AI is productive. Software companies sell services to corporations. If they're spending less on software, which they are, that's a margin story.
We're starting to see the benefits of AI. While most investors are still reacting to short-term volatility, Tom Lee is looking at a much larger structural shift underneath the surface of the market. His core message is simple. Bull markets do not end just because prices move sideways or even drop sharply.
They end when liquidity is removed or when policy turns restrictive in a sustained way. Historically, that has been the Federal Reserve. When the Fed tightens aggressively, risk assets struggle. When the Fed shifts toward easing or even just stabilizing conditions, markets tend to recover and extend their cycles.
Right now, expectations around monetary policy are starting to shift again as inflation cools and growth concerns reappear in the background. At the same time, a deeper force is beginning to show up in the data. Artificial intelligence is no longer just a narrative. It is starting to impact real economic output.
Companies are reducing costs, increasing efficiency, and in some cases shrinking headcount while maintaining or growing productivity. That shift is already visible in software pricing pressure and changing labor dynamics in tech. This is where Tom Lee's argument becomes more powerful. He sees this as the early phase of an AI-driven productivity cycle that will eventually feed into corporate earnings and broader market expansion.
In other words, what looks like disruption today may translate into higher profits and stronger markets tomorrow. Even the recent weakness in technology and crypto is being interpreted through this lens. Instead of signaling the end of the cycle, it may simply be the market adjusting to a new productivity regime.
Spot Bitcoin ETEFF inflows continue to show institutional participation even during corrections. That suggests larger players are still positioning for longer-term exposure rather than exiting the space. So, while sentiment may feel uncertain in the short term, the macro backdrop is quietly shifting in a way that historically supports extended bull markets.
And if that alignment between policy and productivity continues, the next phase may not just be recovery. It could be acceleration. Put everything together and you start to see a larger picture forming across both Raoul Pal and Tom Lee's frameworks. On one side, you have a global capital race driven by artificial intelligence, compute, and national competition.
On the other side, you have a liquidity system that continuously expands over time because debt, demographics, and policy leave no other option. Raoul Pal's argument is that this combination creates a structural engine for asset inflation. Markets are not simply moving up because of speculation, they are being pulled upward by the constant expansion of global liquidity and the forced allocation of capital into high-growth technologies.
Even when corrections appear violent, they sit inside a much larger system that is still expanding. Now, layer in Tom Lee's view, the short-term pain in technology and crypto is not destruction of the trend, it is compression before expansion. As artificial intelligence begins to show real productivity gains, companies become more efficient, margins improve, and earnings potential expands.
Historically, that combination tends to attract more capital, not less. This is where crypto begins to change character. It stops behaving like a purely speculative asset and starts behaving more like a macro liquidity receiver. Institutional flows through Bitcoin ETFs are a clear example of that shift.
Capital is not just trading in and out, it is accumulating exposure over longer time horizons. At the same time, the market is still shaking out excess leverage. That creates the illusion of weakness, but underneath that volatility, positioning continues to build. Liquidity trends are stabilizing, policy expectations are softening, and AI-driven productivity is starting to show up in real economic data.
So, what looks like uncertainty may actually be transition, a transition from speculative crypto cycles into something much larger, a system where digital assets are increasingly tied to global liquidity, institutional allocation, and the productivity of artificial intelligence itself. And if that transition continues at this pace, the next phase of crypto may not just be another bull market. It may be the moment it fully integrates into .
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