저자: JessicaInsk · 외국인
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AI 랠리가 아닌 '효율성 붐'이 지속되며 하이퍼스케일러 지출이 시장의 추세적 상승 동력이라는 낙관론. 단기적으로는 시장이 사상 최고치 부근의 과열 상태라 부정적 뉴스에 취약하며, 7월 30일 재무부 분기 재융자 규모(단기물 발행 증가)가 가장 큰 하방 리스크라고 봄. 코인베이스는 규제 준수 기반 확장과 스테이블코인 성장으로 장기 성장을 기대하며 기술적으로는 약 369 저항 확인 필요. 피서브(FI)는 은행 연계 스테이블코인의 브리지 역할을 기대하지만 장기 투자 관점이며 추가 증거를 기다리는 입장. 엔비디아는 장기 강세로 보고 조정 시 매수 기회로 봤으나 과열 구간이라 지금 추가 매수는 비추천, 현금담보 풋 매도 전략을 언급.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Trading 360. I'm Diane King Hall. Time now for the big three. Three stocks, three charts, three trades. Rick Dukat will take us through the charts. And here to take us through the tickers on her list is Jessica Insk, director of investor research, stockbrokers.com. It is great to see both of you.
Jessica, uh before we dive into the names on your list today, I'm curious to know your thoughts, a big picture thought on the market action, especially given we saw some cooling after those records that we saw at the end of last week, but we certainly didn't fall off a cliff. What's your take? Absolutely.
The most dangerous position for the market to be in is in a euphoric state, and when we're at all-time highs, we tend to be in that euphoric state. So any negative news absolutely has the potential of pushing us downwards. That's a concern for me. But we've got a lot of tailwinds with what I'm calling not the AI rally anymore, but the efficiency boom that is certainly a tailwind as we see lots of spending within the hyperscalers.
This race to artificial general intelligence and this fiscal policy that really supports digitization, tokenization, and stable coins. That's a whole another leg to this efficiency boom. But my big headwind actually would come around July 30th. That is a Fed day. But that's also when we get our quarterly refinancing of our budget.
Yellen issued a lot on the front end of the curve. That's coming due. I want to see how much Treasury we have issuing. And if it's more than anticipated, I think that's the risk that could send the market down. But there's a lot of data we have in between now and that date. So paying attention to that and how that really affects interest rates, the deficit, but I'm still bullish on that efficiency boom.
Jessica, way to read the tea leaves because I've been trying to figure out what the theme is for the back half of this year, but I feel like you've characterized in a nutshell a lot of what's been occurring this year, as you mentioned, is not just about the AI trade, the efficiency boom, even when we think about labor and what's happening in the labor market.
All right, I'm not going to go too far off on a tangent because we we've got some names on your list today. You've got Coinbase, ticker coin, uh that's been an outperformer compared to the S&P 500. What's your view on this one now? Yeah, absolutely. Thank you, Diane. And I really wanted to go with you on that tangent.
So, thanks for rolling me back. Uh Coinbase, it's transforming. So, it's reg into regulated, scalable backbone of of crypto finance. There's stable coin growth in access to derivative markets. And that's going to position it in my view for long-term growth independent of any of that short-term trading hype that we have.
Stable coins is going to be important relative to my macro thesis because those are backed by US treasuries. That's definitely going to have some volatility created within the credit market. But either way, there's still demand for treasuries. That's an important component that I see in fiscal policy is backing that.
So they're lean scalable growth and stable coins for derivatives. And when I say derivatives, what I want to get across is this regulatory edge. Though there was a recent regulatory breakthrough that allows Coinbase to offer CFTC compliant perpetual futures for Bitcoin and Ethereum and overseas the global that that's a there's they can tap into 90% of that market.
So that's another tailwind for them from a revenue perspective inclusive of what's happening with blockchain and stable coins. So, I really think they're in the forefront of that. Okay. All right. So, Rick, you're up now. Uh Rick, our lead market technician. So, Rick, tell us about what you notice about this chart for Coinbase.
Well, breaking above the old highs here, but not really able to make the push upward yet that the bulls may be hoping for. So, we can see here 34975 back here. That was our old high point uh from all the way back in uh uh November. Uh we can see that after a a gradual decline here kind of a cup and handle type of shape here we had the bottom come in near 14258.
Now price has made its way back up to those old highs. We had a brief uh uh down swing here. Uh and then we have so far managed to recover but not really taking out those highs near 382. For now our shorter term trend line here in white is still in play. We did have an interesting situation where we had our gap up, a brief period of a a consolidation here in a symmetrical triangle type shape, then the big push as well that took us above the 300 level point and then several high points here.
So that was another uh big breakout area. So, uh, we can also see that even though we do still have a green upward sloping trend line going across the lows on the RSI, for now, the RSI has retreated from that overbought area, that threshold of 70. What the bulls would want to see would be for price to retake those old highs, push beyond them, and for RSI to re-enter that overbought area and make new highs in tandem.
So, uh, be on the lookout if that starts to happen. uh if you have a bullish outlook in this name. When we look at our volume profile study, we can see that there was some uh heavy trading around this area near those old highs right around 350 or so. This could be a supportive area to watch. Beyond that, volume picks up once again from 300 to 310.
That's also the site of uh our our green line that we mentioned earlier. If price were to keep moving to the upside here, well, we can see that our plus two standard deviation channel, our orange line here, two standard deviations up from our linear regression line, which is a line of best fit, that could be potential resistance, comes in right below 369.
So, that's about where price topped out today. So, by one measure, uh, this could be a consolidative or or or resistance point to keep an eye on that level near about 369. Okay, Jessica. Uh, if you have a final thought on Coinbase, hit me. If not, let's move on to your next trade. Ticker FI for Fiserve.
That has been an underperformer compared to the S&P 500 year to date. So, I am curious to know where you go from here. You can tag team on them. If you have a final thought on Coinbase, if not, let's move on to Ferve. Yeah, let's move on to Ferve because it it's important to understand the investment thesis around this.
It's really about powering the future of bankbacked stable coins. If we think about the concept of stable coins, really that could have a lot of headwinds for traditional banking. But we need to understand that corporate America is very agile and resilient. We see that with tariffs spreads out, spreading out.
We see that across since so much since the great financial crisis. I think of the most recent headwind perhaps that disrupted banking which was when Venmo came about. But then that's when zel occurred and that's how banks are going to implement within that type of world and something's going to happen with stable coins as well.
But behind that is fiserve. They have security and compliance at their core. They have built-in fraud risk and settlement controls. And that's very important for banks mirroring their trusted role that they had in those real-time payment systems like zel. So they are positioning itself to be this bridge between traditional banking and digital assets.
And it's giving banks the tools to compete in a in a tokenized world really with safety and scale. And that's going to be very very important as we see these key partnerships roll out as I'm looking for more evidence of with these launching branded stable coins from banks as we're talking about them in theory to them actually coming through and if they are ferve is a solution that you need in order to bring those to life.
So therefore, it's a longer term play, but I do believe there's a lot of earnings potential here as stable coins are more adopted broadly. Okay. I'm glad you said it's longer term because you mentioned the like zel that stuck out to me, but the question that came up in my mind is it sticky enough. So then Rick, tell me what you noticed about the chart for Fiser.
Well, we held on to an important low fairly recently. This green line here near about 156. That was an old floor, a general area where price found some footing before uh what was a nice rally took us up to those highs 23859. From there though, uh we did uh uh fall back down to earth as I said here, finding that supportive area near 156.
Now making some progress to the upside here, trending upward, but stuck once again 176, our red line here. Low points back there, another low point here, and an old high point. So you look for these areas where price repeatedly stops uh to give you some kind of a a potential idea about where to find support or resistance.
So in this case we so far have not managed to uh uh break above that area yet. We do have a supportive confluence right here. Our yellow 21-day exponential moving average and our short-term trend line up around 170 or so. We can also see that RSI is uh uh you know kind of uh in this triangular shape here.
We have our longerterm downward sloping trend line in red. Our shorter term upward sloping trend line in green. RSI right about on that 50 midline right now. Now, when you look at this one too, trend lines, sometimes they're very clear. They match up very cleanly. Sometimes they're a little more messy.
You could draw maybe two trend lines here. One going across the highs after we we had our our 52- week high. That would give you this white line to look out for. Some people might also think of it this way. This blue line here, that's kind of like the line of best fit where price would find support and resistance here.
So, by one measure, we have broken out from a downtrend. By another, we're still kind of stuck at this resistance level. When we look at volume, we can see that the point of control, the heaviest trading area comes in around 162. So, heavy volume at a big low that often uh uh is interpreted as a sign that an important low point has been reached.
Not saying it'll hold for for sure or anything like that. Just saying that's a notable area. Now volume picks up once again near 202 right around our linear regression line, our line of best fit. Okay. All right. So, thank you for that deep dive into the chart for Ferve there, Jessica. Let's talk about the final name on your list, Nvidia.
I'm looking at this one and I'm like and what the thought occurred to me what a different chart which I know it sounds like I'm seeing a brick for this uh for Nvidia when you look at it from April to now uh but again if you look at it overall for this year so far it's been an outperformer compared to the S&P 500.
So tell me about your thesis here now Jessica and then Rick will go over the chart. Absolutely. I think a lot of times on Wall Street at least we equate Nvidia to purely being this AI demand play which it is not. There is software in addition to hardware. There are hyperscalers that are spending so much and it's really this heart from AI to even crypto.
They are this silicone behind the scenes when the world digitizes if you will. So it's infrastructure backbone of the entire digitized world. So they're powering blockchain 2. They're key enablers of the blockchain network indirectly because they support the scale of stable coins through GPO GPU powered mining and network validation.
There's a lift of the AI diffusion role which increases sovereign demand which could be another tailwind. So they're essentially everyone is spending on AI and if everyone's searching for gold, Nvidia is the shovel if you will. Nvidia is selling shovels and you need that. And hyperscaler symbiosis I think is important to point out because we see even today meta announced this uh someone from Apple coming over as the race to art agi artificial general intelligence.
Nobody knows what that is but it's critical game theory and technology is very iterative and agile meaning we want artificial general intelligence. We don't know what that instate or that prize is but everyone wants to be in the game. Therefore they're willing to spend because whoever owns that owns the next leg of the AI rally.
Whoever that is and whoever the spending is, it creates hyperscaler symbiosis within Nvidia because AI infrastructure now is planned. It's it's executed at scale and that's really good for a company like Nvidia that can plan and offset other things that may occur due to tariffs. So, I think Nvidia has a lot of tailwinds for it.
Definitely in the longer term. In the shorter term, like I said at the top, when we're in a euphoric state and at all-time highs, we always I always have a pause. I wouldn't necessarily add them to my position here, but I am bullish on the long term. Selling cash secured puts that on a shorter term than those 45 days might behoove you in this, but any pullbacks are opportunities to add to your position.
Okay, so Rick, uh, take us through what you notice about this chart. Any shovels looking for gold? Well, perhaps. Yeah, but you know, pullback, uh, being a buying opportunity, that's pretty much what just happened recently here. So, we broke above 153, the old double top highs. You can see here at our red line, price pushed to the upside.
Then after the initial breakout, we retested that old resistance area which now became support. Now uh it seems like the trend is continuing on to the upside. A common situation that happens in trading. Not saying it's going to happen every single time or anything like that, but uh uh you know it's after a breakout, it's very common for people to uh you know um take profits or reduce positions or whatever.
and we get we get that pull back to an old area of interest there before the trend continues here. So just something to consider here. But we can look at our blue trend line sloping upward across those lows that took us really straight into those 52- week highs about a 84% gain or so. But the the trend has moderated somewhat here.
Now the price action is mostly between these two white dashed lines here giving us a slightly more modestly sloping upward channel. uh RSI, tiny bit of bearish divergence here, but still re-entering that overbought area. Looking like it really could break out once again here if uh the bulls managed to push above that 161 level.
So um when we look at volume, we can see here that the heavy volume is uh a bit below where we are now. Most mostly here between about 135 to 145. That's the next big volume node. Plus two standard deviation channel comes in just below 162. That could be a potential resistance area to watch. But for support, our old highs 153 and then our 21-day EMA comes in around 150.
Those could be some areas to watch. All right, areas to watch there. Uh, thank you, Rick. That's our Rick Dukat, lead market technician, and Jessica and Skip of Stockbrokers.com. Thank you both. Have a great rest of your day.
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