저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 주가가 2024년 들어 약 2배 상승(약 $17→$32.29)한 상황에서, 매출 성장 재가속·영업이익률 상승(11.78%)·현금흐름 개선 등 펀더멘털은 우수하다고 평가. 다만 선행 PER 74.4배로 역대 최고 밸류에이션이며 향후 5년 EPS 성장률 85% 전망은 과도하게 높아 불확실성이 크다고 판단. 이에 투자의견을 매수 경계에서 보유(Hold/Market Perform)로 하향하고 일부 차익실현을 고려하라고 제시.
다듬은 글
paler stock is trading near record highs at $32.29 per share of course I've had paler stock rated as a buy almost all all year long here in 2024 but is it finally time to sell paler stock and take profits I'll answer that question in this video I'll look at the company's prospects how it's performed in recent quarters and the outlook for the next 5 years and weigh them all against its valuation to determine if it's a good time for long-term investors to lock in some profits with paler stock like I highlighted paler stock has performed exceptionally well here in 2024 it's now near record highs at $32.29 per share it started the year off at around $17 per share so it's almost doubled year to dat in 2024 but this increase in stock price has not just been driven by hype the company has re accelerated Revenue growth continued its momentum of increasing profitability on the bottom line and made great inroads with Enterprises and diversified away from just being a government business government to business relationship so it's done a lot to improve its prospects and so as much as it has and like I highlighted I've had paler stock rated as a buy almost all year long and I last updated this recommendation on August 6 reiterating that I like the stock but I had it on a borderline buy and one of the reasons it was on a borderline and not just a clear outright buy is because of the valuation because of the price I was a little bit concerned because there wasn't much margin of safety given the company's excellent stock price increases but like I mentioned paler had done an excellent job improving the business you can see here Revenue growth was decelerating considerably from 2021 where it was growing Revenue over 50% per quarter year-over-year and that was on a clear downward Trend here until late 2023 when the company found a way to re accelerate Revenue growth and then you can see that big bounce up and now it's been several consecutive quarters where paler has re accelerated Revenue growth and one of the reasons one of the catalysts behind its Revenue growth re acceleration was the AIP boot camps where paler went into Enterprises and demonstrated to them what it can do for them and that increased the interest from Enterprises in purchasing paler Services paler has best-in-class AI services but they are expensive to hire and so businesses were hesitant to hire palente here it had great great Traction in government business because governments have Deep Pockets and they can afford the best-in-class offering but Enterprises there aren't very many businesses that can afford paler Services even though it's done a great job in recent quarters to accelerate that business it still has less than 400 Enterprise customers just to highlight how expensive it is but that opportunity is massive if paler can continue to demonstrate excellent performance businesses will increase the budgets they're willing to pay for paler Services furthermore as paler brings down the cost to serve it can lower its price to serve these Enterprises so it's not surprising to me to see the stock price rise the way it has and this is one of the reasons I had recommended paler stock as a buy to begin with and it wasn't just that paler was increasing Revenue it's easy to increase Revenue to a certain degree if you're willing to accept lower profit margins and if you're willing to offer incentives and promotions to make those sales but paler what's been impressive about palente tier's recent reacceleration in Revenue growth is that it's come on the back of continued profit margin expansion its operating profit margin reached its highest point ever at 11.78% in the most recent trailing 12- month period so while it's increasing Revenue accelerating Revenue growth it's doing so profitably it's doing so without sacrificing profit margins in fact it's improving profit margins that's what made it so impressive to begin with and it's a similar story with its cash flow from operations to sales which are very healthy at 28.58 and have been increasing also across the board paler has done a great job here with the business accelerating Revenue growth increasing profit margins finding a way to get themselves into Enterprises and broaden their reach outside of government business and all that has increased its return on investing Capital over the last several years so several things working in palente here's favor the one thing that's not working in palente favor well I guess you can say it is working in palente favor because it's beneficial for a company to have a higher valuation because it can then use equity to raise Capital if it needs to but palente here doesn't need to raise Capital it's got a pristine balance sheet with close to $4 billion in cash and short-term Investments with zero long-term debt and since the company's generating such strong profit margins and cash flow from operations I don't suspect paler will ever need to raise Capital again unless it needs to make some massive acquisition or some big strategic play which I don't see happening at the near- term or anytime soon but what I mean by the valuation it's trading at the most expensive valuation it's traded for going back along time it's trading at a forward price to earnings of 74.4 N and you can see just in the last couple of months how that valuation has spiked higher from a forward PE of less than 60 all the way up to a forward PE of 74.4 n now when you look at PS by 85% per year over the next 5 years now if you were confident in this EPS forecast then the valuation would make sense because you're getting an EPS growth rate that's higher than the forward PE you're paying so this number is 85 and this number is 74 when this number is higher than this number that's usually a sign of a good value for an investment however when you're dealing with numbers this High 85% EPS growth rate that's nearly eight times the rate of the average stock in the S&P 500 which is expected to grow at only 11.73% over the next 5 years so when you're dealing with numbers that high and of course when you're dealing with forecasts and estimate these are forecasts and estimates based on Wall Street analyst and so there's more uncertainty the larger the numbers get when you get into this range the uncertainty in increases exponentially and so if you're getting this and you're uncertain about the EPS forecast which I am I think paler will grow its earnings per share nicely over the next 5 years will it be 85% I don't know if if I had to wager taking the over or under on 85% growth I would take the under just because it's so difficult to grow EPS by 85% on average per year over the next five years and so in combination looking at the expensive valuation and the uncertainty with the EPS expectations they will be robust I'm relatively certain about strong EPS growth but I don't know if it'll be that strong at 85% so given all of those factors I think it's an excellent time for investors to take profits in paler stock I'm lowering the recommendation here to a hold and a market perform and I'm updating that on August 21st now acknowledging it's an excellent company with great prospects it's just a valuation is already incorporating so much of its excellent prospects already it might be a good time if you were considering if you're on the fence to take some profits in paler stock
Comments 0