저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론(MU)은 AI 수요와 데이터센터 매출 급증으로 실적이 호조이며 현금흐름과 재무구조도 양호하다. 다만 주가가 DCF 적정가치 131달러를 크게 웃도는 169달러에 거래돼 과열 부담이 있다. 9월 23일 실적과 2026년 가이던스를 확인한 뒤 판단하는 것이 낫다고 보며, 실적 발표 전 매수는 권하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
Micron stock is soaring in 2025. It's already up over 101%. And of course, I'm 've been telling my viewers, I really like the value this stock provided. And finally, the stock caught a bid and soared more than doubling year to date here. It's already up almost 6% today. Just on the back of that news that partnership between Nvidia and Intel is lifting semiconductor stocks and Micron Technology especially.
So investors are now asking me about Micron if it's too late to buy this stock. The company on September 23rd. And investors are asking me if they should buy this stock before the company announces earnings or if they should wait until after the earnings announcement or if they should buy this stock at all.
now after its uh share price has soared by all this much. So, should look for from the company in the upcoming earnings release. I'll share with you my fair value calculation for Micron Technology and let you know if I think this stock is a buy, hold, or a sell going into this earnings updat, Micron's been benefiting significantly from the rising demand for artificial intelligence.
Its technology is going into electronic devices that are being embedded with more capabilities to provide users with that more computing power they need to utilize artificial intelligence on their end devices like computers, smartphones, tablets, etc. Micron is also selling into the data center market partnering with Nvidia.
So, it's getting increasing demand from that side of enterprise spending as well. The management team said in their most recent update to investors, their most recent quarterly update on June 25th, they said that that they delivered a record quarter in their fiscal Q3 driven by all-time high DRAM revenue, including 50% sequential growth in high bandwidth memory.
data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year and they're experiencing strong growth across the board. Overall, their revenue increased to 9.3 billion, which was up from 6.8 billion in the same quarter last year. Their operating income almost tripled to 2.169 billion, up from 719 million in the same quarter last year.
Their business is absolutely booming. One area investors had concerns about Micron coming into 2025 was their capital expenditures and they were worried that Micron was going the direction of Intel overinvesting in their manufacturing and thereby hurting their balance sheet and their expenses as the depreciation expense after the capital expenditure will start to eat up more of the company's revenue.
But those concerns have been put to the wayside and investors are now more enthusiastic about the bull case for Micron instead of being concerned about the balance sheet and capital expenditures. For Q3 capex spending total 2.66 billion. So it's still relatively high compared to revenue. 2.66 billion divided by 9.3 billion.
Still a very large percentage of its revenue is going towards capital expenditure. But even after that, adjusted free cash flow was solid at about two billion. So even though they're spending a lot on capital expenditure, they're generating so much cash flow that there's money to do that. And their balance sheet is still strong.
They've got uh cash, marketable investments, and restricted cash of over $12 billion. So, the balance sheet is healthy as revenue has recovered and operating income is jumping and free cash flow is increasing. They're using that money to enhance and expand their manufacturing capabilities. Looking ahead, the company is forecasting more solid performance in the fourth quarter when they report results on the 23rd.
They're expecting revenue of around 10.7 billion, which would be a nice sequential increase from the 9.3 billion they reported. And their gross profit margin was 37.7% in the previous quarter. They're now expecting a gross profit margin of 41%. So, sequential improvements in revenue for a nice amount and gross profit margin also a nice amount in the upcoming quarter for Micron.
Also, investors should look out for Micron providing you guidance for their fiscal year 2026. That's going to be a big development. The company could deliver an excellent quarterly performance, but if the guidance for 2026 disappoints, that could provide some big downside for the share price following the earnings release.
So, let me share with you my discounted cash flow valuation for Micron. I calculate this value is B is this business is worth $131 per share but the share price has increased by so much that the market price is now well above the intrinsic value trading at $169. So this stock now looks slightly overvalued when applying a margin of safety compared to the intrinsic value per share.
So to answer the question, do I think investors should buy Micron stock before the company announces earnings? Now I'm going to say no. Even though I have Micron stock rated as a buy coming this close into earnings, the volatility of the share price is now even more elevated. You're taking on even more risk and at the same time the valuation is not so cheap where I think the risk versus reward is worthwhile for investors.
So, if you're interested in Micron stock and you want to add this stock to your portfolio, and I certainly am interested in Micron stock, what I would be doing is I'm going to wait until the earnings come out. I'm going to evaluate the results, digest the information, incorporate it into my valuation, and then determine if I want to buy this stock or if I think it's going to be time to take profits in Micron stock.
There's, I think, more downside to Micron stock going into this earnings release, especially because they're likely to provide guidance and updates for their fiscal year 2026. And so, at these share prices, with these conditions, I'm waiting to see what's coming out before I make a decision with Micron stock. So, I would not be buying going into earnings release here. .
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