저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
ASML과 TSMC를 매출성장률(ASML 19.8%, TSMC 17.3% CAGR), 영업이익률(ASML 34.8%, TSMC 48.8%), ROIC(ASML 24.9%, TSMC 31%)로 비교. 관세 불확실성과 인텔 투자 축소로 ASML 단기 수주에 역풍, TSMC는 미국 생산 이전으로 마진 압박 예상. DCF 적정가 ASML $75(현재 $83), TSMC $185(현재 $253)로 둘 다 고평가 또는 적정 판단. 선행 PER은 ASML 29.5배, TSMC 20배. 장기 투자자 관점에서 ASML을 선호.
다듬은 글
ASML and Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing company have two offsetting forces. On the one hand, artificial intelligence and the rising effectiveness of AI is creating an increase in demand for their equipments and manufacturing services. Meanwhile, the increase in trade barriers is creating confusion and closing markets for these two companies.
So, investors are curious about these two stocks, and most interestingly, they're asking me which one I think is the better buy. I'll answer that question in this video. I'll compare these two on critically important financial metrics, and I'll share with you my fair value calculations and determine which one I think makes the better buy today for long-term investor the first thing I wanted to compare these two on is revenue growth over the previous decade.
And first of all, Taiwan Semiconductor has increased revenue from 25.6 billion in 2015 all the way up to 116 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period. That's good for a compounded annual growth rate of 17.3%. Meanwhile, ASML has increased revenue from 6.8 8 billion in 2015 to 37.9 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period.
And that's good for a compounded annual growth rate of 19.8%. Looking forward, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is forecasting better revenue growth over the next 1 to 3 years, while ASML reported some headwinds from customers pausing orders of new equipment given the uncertainty related to these trade barriers instituted by President Donald Trump.
Additionally, one of ASML's largest customers, Intel, has paused or slowed down production of its newer manufacturing facilities as a result of the change in leadership and a change in strategy at the company over the previous 5 years or so. Intel has invested tens of billions of dollars in enhancing its manufacturing capabilities, but those investments have really, really hurt the company's balance sheet.
and now they're having to take drastic measures to shore up their finances. That's one of ASML's biggest customers. The next metric I wanted to compare these two on is their operating profit margins. Uh Taiwan Semiconductor stands out as one of the best manufacturing companies in the world. Not just the best manufacturing company for semiconductors, but just one of the best manufacturing companies.
Full stop. at a at an operating profit margin of 48.8% you'll scarcely find the manufacturing company that generates operating margins this high and that's up from 38% from 2015. Now the management team did share that their margins will be under pressure as a result of the geopolitical uh the geo diversification it's undertaking.
Remember, it's moving some of its manufacturing facilities to the United States because that's what some of its customers want to alleviate some of the risks from the concentration in its home country of all of its manufacturing. The company's management team said that it's higher cost for the company to manufacture outside of Taiwan.
So, in the United States, its profit margins will drop as a result of diversifying the supply chain. Meanwhile, ASML's operating margins increased to 34.8% up from 29.6%. And the management team often gets asked, you know, how much further can you raise your prices given that you have a near monopoly in your most cutting edge technology.
Nobody else can produce the most cutting edge technology that ASML produces or brings together, right? Because they, you know, they're more of an aggregator. They have hundreds of suppliers and they bring together everything and assemble and bring it all together, but nobody else can do what it does.
And so a lot of investors believe that ASML can continue raising prices. Remember these products already cost a couple of hundred million each one. It's a machine that manufactures semiconductors. So it's really cutting edge technology. Only ASML can produce the most cutting edge technology and investors believe the company can continue raising prices to generate higher margins.
The returns on investor capital are also attractive at 31% for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and 24.9% for ASML. ASML demonstrating the better trend line here for ROIC. Remember, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is one of ASML's customers. Taiwan Semiconductor uh regularly reinvests 30 to40 billion annually in updating and expanding its manufacturing facilities.
It's a very capital inensive industry. That's why I suggested that you're not going to find a better company than TSMC at manufacturing because it's so difficult and so capital inensive and they managed to do such an excellent job in this regard. So let's look at valuation. My fair value calculation for ASML is $75.
The current market price is $83. So it looks uh slightly overvalued or fairly valued you can say when I apply a margin of safety. And similarly t 185 compared to the market price is 253. Even after applying for a margin of safety, this stock looks overvalued based on my DCF. And when I look at the forward price to earnings valuation, ASML is at 29.5 while Taiwan Semiconductor is at 20.
Taiwan Semiconductor looks undervalued based on the forward PE ratio as does ASML given its profile and attractiveness as an investment. So, if I had to pick between these two stocks to buy today, I would pick ASML. ASML, I believe, is a better value for long-term investors at current market prices.
Thank you for watching this video. I truly appreciate it. I know there's a lot you could be doing with your time and a lot of other videos you could be watching. So, I truly appreciate that you chose to watch this one. If you want to see more videos just like this, hit the subscribe or the like button. They'll both help me make more videos just like this one. Thank you again.
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