저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
틱톡 딜 발표로 주가 반등했으나 최종 승인은 중국 승인에 달려 있어 미완료 상태라고 진단. 프라이빗크레딧 규모(약 4조달러)와 Oracle 불안을 우려하면서도, 1월 9일 고용·지표 전까지 단기 강세를 기대. 현재 구조적 리스크(실업수당 27주 지표, 소비심리 악화)는 경계, 시장 낙관은 일시적이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
Well, stocks are mooning today, which is great. And part of it is because of the Tik Tok deal and Oracle. But what do we need to know about that deal that could create some risks in the future? And is this just a slide bailout by Donald Trump? I mean, after all, this morning in the Alpha Report, as always, and this is something for you to take away from, we analyzed that if we went green in the first 5 minutes, we're going to go for a 617 test on the Q's.
And what was remarkable is as we covered this at the morning in Oracle which has been plummeting and you could take this away and learn for it. We went to the five-minute candles and noticed that the volume on the one minute now today in fairness is triple witching but the volume 1 minute into the market open with a massive green candlestick was already three times larger than what we had seen in the prior days which is a good sign that things were going to be bullish for the day.
And sure enough, look at this. You can't make it up. If you bought in that first minute, you'd be straight up on the cues today. Pretty remarkable. So, will this enthusiasm last? Yesterday, we bounced on the 607 line. Today, we're at 617. Is the pain finally over? And all of it comes down to this approval of the Tik Tok deal.
Yesterday, Donald Trump suggested that a deal has been signed with Bite Dance. A definitive agreement has been made. Trump and the CEO of Tik Tok have made that clear. So, does this mean the deal is in the bag? Are we done? No. And that's really critical because I would make the argument that today we actually have this behemoth of private credit that we don't even realize how big it is.
to come up with an analogy, which we talked about this morning as well. To come up with an analogy, consider the size of JP Morgan going bankrupt, the same as the size of our private credit markets. Think about that. JP Morgan is about a $4 trillion AUM bank. Banks lend to non-bank financial intermediaries like a Jeff who then lend to private credit companies.
Private credit is how big? $4 trillion. So if private credit goes poopy dupy, it's like losing a too big to fail JP Morgan. And now why does this Tik Tok and Oracle deal matter? Well, because private credit has been flowing into data centers, but Oracle's been getting whacked because their private credit lender, Blue Owl, just bailed on them and their stock tanked even more.
And so what we want to see is companies like Oracle succeed so that way downstream chips can do well, memory plays can do well, infrastructure buildout plays can do well. Uh and then we get space data centers downstream in the future. Right? All of this could really prop up our GDP. And so what Trump is basically doing is saying, "All right, we got we already got the Fed doing po and tommo, right?
permanent market operations, temporary market operations. On the temporary side, we're pumping in five billion bucks, you know, every few days. On the POMO side, we're doing $40 billion a month plus $20 billion a month of mortgage back securities. So, we're pumping liquidity to pump up private credit.
Trump's coming in here saying, "We realize this is happening. Oracle still falling because of private credit fears. Hey, why don't we just assume we have a deal and let's prop up Oracle stock and stop the bleeding. And so far, the market is buying it. Hook, line, and sinker. The Q's are happy. Oracle's up 7%.
Coreweave in the last day has gone lineto line 68 to 79 on the lines. It's trying to break out. Micron's had a great run. AMD is up. Nvidia's up. All of these prop up semis and and the tech stocks. Duh. But the question is, is this deal a done deal? What hangs in the balance of the deal? Well, what hangs in the balance of the deal is kind of like what jaded Kevin wrote yesterday on X.
You could follow me there at Realme Kevin. Jaded Kevin wrote, "The Tik Tok deal signed being subject to China's approval." Okay. Some might be jaded and say that this is just to stop the bleeding at Oracle stock, which is working, right? The bleeding is stopping at Oracle stock, which is great. But what does China say about this?
And so this is where I spent a whole $6. Okay, we did this live. We spent $6 on this. We can put a bottom line to this. You can thank me by joining the Meet Kevin membership. That way you get the alpha report every morning. Okay, so you know, I'm making big investments here for us. Anyway, I spent $6 and sent it to the commies and uh in this article that we unlocked for $6 and then I promptly cancelled my subscription.
Uh they actually so this is from the Hong Kong perspective and then we're going to look at the Chinese perspective. So the more the Beijing perspective, the Hong Kong perspective is hey, we're not so sure about this because there are a few problems from both sides. First of all, who's actually going to take the algorithm?
Because if China keeps the algorithm, it may not qualify for US regulatory approval because Congress said the algorithm needs to get out of China's hands. But if the algorithm is going to stay with China then and and we're going to, you know, say we're going to retrain some of the algorithm here, but if some of the algorithm is staying in China via this section right here, the deal departed from the previously anticipated direct sale or full divestment model, adding to the complex approach to splitting the algorithm, which could face close scrutiny under US compliance requirements.
We're basically saying, is Congress going to be okay with this? That's the US problem. Let's assume the US side is okay with it. What do the Chinese say? Well, the Chinese will also have to approve these algorithm deals. And quote, there are uncertainties about the algorithms control and relationship with the parent company.
And this factor may be a point of ongoing conflict between the US and China, especially before midterms. Okay. What does that mean? It's a threat. It's a threat. China is basically saying, "We know you want this, but you have midterms coming up." Guess what we don't have in China? Midterms. Guess what we have in China?
All the power. All the power. Okay. So, so in other words, China's got leverage over this deal, especially with Trump going into midterms. And what do they say over here regarding Taiwan? Oh, and the approval cannot necessarily be taken for granted for the Tik Tok deal after Washington's terribly big 11 billion in arm sales to Taiwan, a sale angrily condemned by Beijing.
Pop over to the Associated Press. That's your fearless leader. And what do we have here? We have uh US announces massive package arm sale to Taiwan valued at more than 10 billion angering China. They didn't speak to China about this. If approved by Congress, it would be the largest package to Taiwan uh larger than the 8.4 4 billion Biden sent them.
So big dollars. China's obviously not happy about this. China's foreign ministry attacked the move saying it would violate diplomatic agreements between China and the US and gravely harm grave grave. This is like worse than critical. You know, when you go to hospital and you're dying, you know, they they put you into like different conditions, like, you know, they're critical but stable, critical but not stable, and then there's like grave.
Okay, grave is like, well, you're almost in the grave. Uh, it's really bad. So, that's what they're calling it. Gravely harms China's sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, undermining regional stability. Taiwan's independent forces on the island seeking independence through force and resist reunification through force, squandering the hard-earned money of the people to purchase weapons at the cost of Taiwan turning into a powder keg, right?
So, this is like war hawking and wararmongering and blah blah blah drama. Big deal, right? But really, the point of this is this deal isn't done. There are a lot of issues. Trump has midterms coming up which puts him in a not great spot. You just piss them off with Taiwan, which you're going to keep doing.
We're basically fighting space wars in space. I I can't remember who did a piece. I think it was Wapo did a piece on that yesterday. Uh space wars with satellites. I mean, we're we're adversaries. Yeah. Here it is. Like, look at this. You can't make this stuff up. WPO, why US and Chinese satellites are dogf fighting in orbit.
And my stupid battery is low. You know, this stupid battery does just doesn't last long. Freaking Naga Pro. It's a scam. It's not pro. It should be called Naga Noob. But anyway, yeah, they've got this whole like demonstration here of like how close satellites are getting and and how they're like trying to outmaneuver each other and and you know, basically it's this giant freaking article.
I just really cared about the animations. I was too lazy to actually read this crap. I read some of it. Uh but basically, uh you know, we're at each other's throats. We know that. We know space is going to be the next frontier. That's why Trump 1.1 created the uh the Space Force conveniently at the same time as he was having his first trade war with China over steel tariffs back during the first Trump administration.
So anyway, this this whole thing is a little interesting because it's predicated on Donald Trump sort of reinterpreting the law. The law was we want a direct sale of Tik Tok. Donald Trump is reinterpreting it and he's basically saying, "Yeah, we're good. we have a deal and you know Oracle is going to own 15% of it which if they own 15% of it might create profits of like $7 billion of Oracle or to Oracle which is great because frankly you know they're they're burning a lot of cash right now they could definitely use the money question is you know are they going to issue stock or cash to buy their stake we'll have to see but uh point is today people are enthusiastic things are going up on this this is great we're pushing against 617 In my alpha, I've been calling for a slogish recovery to 617 and then I'm hoping we can go up even higher basically because we don't have catalysts until January 9th.
So, think about this. The Tik Tok deal ain't over. Uh this deal isn't over. Uh but we won't uh we won't see the deal finalized until about January. I think it's the 23rd. It might be the 22nd. So I'm just going to say 22 23 just from memory. It's one of those days. We have big catalyst Jan 9 and 13 for big catalyst outside government uh shutdown.
You know we just had the worst consumer sentiment survey I think zero hedge what they say since 40 years. It was remarkable. I mean you go to zero hedge they were complaining about this being the worst in 40 years. So, we definitely have reason to be cautious and I do think that's why people are diversifying.
I mean, look at this. I think this is why we are actually seeing a lot of inflows from investors into House Hack. I mean, we're well over $2 million now in investments in just a week, which for us is incredible. We're not venture capital backed, right? Uh I mean, it's it's incredible. We're this little tiny real estate company uh with what I think is a frankly, pardon my French, but like a in artificial intelligence software and and machine learning that we trained ourselves uh mostly me mind you on the training.
Not to take away credit from the devs because they're doing great work with the big data and waitings. Like they're like the unsung heroes, right? Like they're putting it all together. But like I'm training input data and then they're working waitings with my feedback. We work on this together and we create this AI.
I think it's a great way to diversify and it's so exciting. But you know, I mean, look at this current conditions at the worst levels in what? Yeah. Over 40 years since they begun tracking it. We're at worse levels than COVID and the global financial crisis. This is crazy. So, who knows? Maybe we could launch off.
But let me put it this way. I think there's reason to be jaded. So, I'm going to put a little bottom line on this, and I've been saying this, but I think there's reason to be bullish between now and really like Jan 9, maybe Jan 8 as people pre-ell uh the uh jobs data, right? This is kind of like what we called, if you remember what we called November 18th, I posted a video called buy and I said bullish through D9 right before these 10 Fed meeting, remember?
And the market went straight up during that time. It was great. So, I'm hoping that like we've got enough of a catalyst here on this Tik Tok news for people to kind of be somewhat blindly bullish between now and Jan 9th. We still have serious structural issues. So, I'm still at a 5.4 on the bare bull scale.
I've been pretty stable there. And if you go to the St. Louis Fred, the 27w week unemployed level is still trash. Uh, and this is a leading indicator of recession because the recession line gets painted in after the fact and 27 weeks unemployed always peaks after the recession's already over. So, it tells you when you're kind of entering into recessionary territory when this is consistently rising, which it is.
And it's possible that we're already in that blue line recessionary period right now. Now, the market's not pricing any of that in because right now it's like, hey, everything feels like soft landing. We're going to start hiring again next year, right? We got rate cuts. We got, you know, Trump fiscal uh uh stimulus through lower taxes and, you know, we've got earnings expectations that'll keep booming.
I hope so because I want to IPO my startup and I don't want to be in a crap market. I don't want to be in, you know, I don't want to try to IPO in like a 2008, you know? I'd rather wait. Uh so you know I hope but here's just your classic Kevin skepticism. Uh and if you want your fair dose of Kevin skepticism every single day before the market is open in our alpha report.
Remember you get lifetime access over at mekevin.com. So with that said good luck out there. I will not be here Monday and Tuesday because I'm going to take a break. So I love y'all. and uh don't ge.
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