저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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CPI 발표가 주거비(OER) 0 처리 등으로 조작된 의심이 크다고 주장. 607선 지지 여부를 단기 강세 조건으로 제시하고, 오라클 CDS·OpenAI 자금조달이 AI 데이터센터 파이낸싱의 핵심 리스크라고 강조. 실업률 5% 도달 시 신용사건 가능성과 장기금리 급락을 예상하며 모기지 회사 및 부동산 노출을 완충 수단으로 언급. 전반적으로 1월 9일 고용지표 전까지 단기 강세 쪽에 기울어 있으나 확신은 낮음.
다듬은 글
number is not to be trusted. If what is true? If this story about what's happening with housing is true, there's a major step down in shelter inflation. The twomonth pace of shelter inflation, so that's from September through October into November, is even less than the typical one-mon pace that we saw before the shutdown.
It's a material slowdown and a big part of that is because October was not reported. So the shelter index right now is artificially low. So here's what we know. The data this morning was a farce. This isn't a surprise because if you actually look at the data for the September to October change or October to November change on the right for the CPI report, it's basically blank.
And the only things that we saw were gasoline numbers and some housing numbers as well as some transportation numbers. And so a lot of people are blatantly pissed off saying these numbers are fully rigged and not to be trusted, which is exactly what the Federal Reserve said. To show you the magnitude of the changes of the data this morning, take a look at this chart right here.
CPI, housing inflation. The orange line represents Zillow's kind of trailing uh uh you know data on the housing. Now, the reason they lag it by 12 months is to try to align it with the owner's equivalent rent chart. The Zillow single family rent data does not lag by 12 months, but they're telling you they purposefully lagged it by 12 months to show it align better with CPI because CPI is always like a year behind.
Right? What's interesting about this is that the CPI numbers we got this morning actually show that CPI has now plummeted below the Zillow rent index in spite of the lag already of 12 months. So, they're somehow catching owners equivalent rent not only up to Zillow because it even with a 12-month delay, it still lags.
But all of a sudden, now it's shooting ahead of the Zillow uh rent index, showing that rents have actually fallen below than what Zillow was tracking. Obviously, this data is extremely sus and questionable. In fact, when you jump it over here, what was basically done is the Bureau of Labor Statistics deleted the biggest contributor to core inflation.
They just set it to zero for October. And by setting housing inflation, the 34% contributor to CPI inflation, the 25% contributor to PCE inflation to zero. They basically said, "Hey, don't look at core goods rising at a rate of 1.9%." You know, in COVID, we were rising at 0% or pre-COVID, we were rising core goods prices by 0%.
There was no goods inflation. Instead, let's just set housing to zero and hide all of this tariff bump of inflation and call it a good report. So this morning in my alpha report, I said, "Hey, uh, I think there's a good case to be made that we're going to dump to 607 at open." And if we hold that, it's good and we could go on a slow schlog up.
Now, why slow schlo up? Because we don't have any other catalysts. We have rigged data between now and mark your calendar for January 9th and January 13th. That's when we're going to get jobs and CPI data for December that hopefully is at least less rigged. But this data is kind of the last data that we get for this year.
And we're kind of sitting around twiddling our thumbs until next year. This morning we were trading in the pre-market, you know, right about here at about 609. And I'm like, watch for a 607 before you do anything. I think institutions are going to dump this puppy because they'll look at this data and go, "This data is bull crap." So look what happened.
dump bounced right at 607. The literally the line we called out in the alpha report. We bounced within 8 cents. Remember, you can get lifetime access at mekevin.com. Use uh the coupon code release the app. We bounce again within 24 cents of the line and we come again within 51 cents of the line. So, really critical line here at 607.
One uh thing to pay attention to is Oracle is not catching bids. Oracle was up about 2.9% this morning on sort of like a deadcat recovery bounce and it's actually bleeding out which is bearish the data centers. Coreweave is having trouble holding on to that 6847 line now rejecting it. Look at Oracle CDS's.
Oracle CDS's tell you that private credit is still an issue. We're still seeing Oracle credit default swaps rise not only to the highest level since 2008 but we were already at the highest level of two since 2008 over here you know then we went to 140 150 now 156 so the private credit issue is still a issue we still need to finance these data centers if we look at the open AI news we could see that open AAI is trying now actively trying to raise tens of billions of dollars at a valuation of 750 billion ion dollar.
We need this financing to go through to stick a soft landing. Now TS Lombard says, "Guys, don't worry. Everything is fine. The economy is actually underestimating how bullish things are going to be." That's literally what they're saying. TS Lombard says, "The 2026 consensus is wrong. The 2026 consensus is that we'll have steady global growth and a bit of disinflation and it'll look a lot like 2025." The problem they're saying is they actually think we're going to see a stronger rebound in activity.
Now, maybe that'll be true, but what you have to get through is you have to get through labor recession risks and AI bubble risks. How do you know that we're getting through those? In my opinion, Oracle starts rebounding and OpenAI gets its funding. if Oracle can meaningfully rebound from this disaster and start recovering like like let's let's set some precedents or or some rules of the game here.
Rules of engagement we'll call them. Okay, let's put this away. Oh yeah. Uh look at that. Uh my alpha report holding 607. If we bounce off 607 within the first 12 minutes, bullish. It's literally what happened. Uh but again, we're just catalyst light until Jan 9, right? Which is generally a bullish thing.
So, uh, criteria for, uh, criteria for bullish. Okay, what do we need? 607 hold. Uh, we've already done that three times. Three times already. Now, we've already done that. But on top of that, we want Oracle to catch a bid and we want OpenAI to get funding. As long as these things happen, then we can we can see a case for hiring and a soft landing.
I mean, I make the comparison that House Hack is going to hire two more devs in January. You know, we're growing our devs because we're seeing a lot more profitability than than we expected from our AI. You know, I got a note this morning that uh our fund raise over the last week as of the update from this morning is this number right here, which we're blown away that let that focus there that in in a week, you know, we could do essentially nearly $2 million of fundraising uh and and the fund raise closes at the end of the month.
It's crazy to us, but we actually see it as bullish for AI software and hiring. So maybe TS Lombard will be right. See, they think that the weakness at the bottom of the K will be balanced out by strength at the top and as long as big tech keeps investing in AI, households can keep spending. I agree with them, but it's the only way data centers keep spending is if we don't uh have a financing issue.
See, this is where Bank of America has a podcast and they actually say that one of the classic hallmarks of a bubble is prices becoming unstable as they rise. I mean, look at the volatility we saw on Tesla. You know, we get all-time highs 2 days ago, then we crash 5% today. Today, we see 4% up again.
You know, on the bounce, we're seeing a lot of volatility. Now, they say the volatility so far has been constrained to sectors like nuclear and quantum, which typically we see volatility rising as prices go up. We've seen this in nine out of nine of the last asset bubbles. Now, they say we're not seeing that ye no, we are depending on where you look.
I mean, look at Oracle. Volatility is rising at Oracle. We've got volatility rising and prices down on AMD. The same is true if you go to Nvidia, wherever Nvidia is. You know, we ran to like 210 on the day. I think 214 intraday, 212 on the day, I guess. You know, now we've been bleeding down, although we're stabilizing a bit over here.
But this is why I think it's so important that we need to see Oracle catch a bid because if Oracle catches a bid, the CDS pain will reduce and then we could actually see data center financing and we could keep seeing the bubble and the policy keep going. Great. We start losing that we have a problem.
At the same time, if we lose that, we could potentially get unemployment closer to 5%. Bank of America makes the argument that getting the unemployment rate to 5%. Is very bearish because that starts signaling uh the uh you know recessionary indicators. That's when the alarm bells start going off, right?
Somebody here writes, "How can I apply as a dev?" Just email [email protected] if you want. That's probably the easiest way to do it. And then we'll take your app and we'll forward it to the dev team and and they'll look at it. So 5% unemployment would be a red flag. But then they also in their Bank of America say this here.
I think to be lower on yields, you clearly need to see the economy come closer to recession. This is literally the Kevin thesis right here. You're going to need to see one of those credit events, whether it's in crypto or private credit, private capital or the Japanese bond market. There are a lot of areas it could come from, but if you get a recession, you will get a credit event and yields could fall a lot further than anyone thinks.
This is basically the TLT bet, right? This is my take is that some shock causes yields to plummet much faster than people think. I think this is going to happen. I think a way to you know a long way to hedge for this uh long real estate exposure obviously biased house hack right uh but then also long mortgage companies long mortgage companies like UWMC somebody in the community tab of our um uh of our course member app this morning they were talking about UWMC and uh I looked into their UWMC post.
So UWMC, here was their post. They asked about WMC has announced they're acquiring uh making an acquisition. So they're acquiring TWWO and they're doubling their mortgage servicing rights. Think about this basically as getting mortgage statement exposure for advertising for the refinance boom. I think there's going to be a massive refinance boom if we have one of these credit events.
And that's why I think a way to hedge for one of those events is long mortgage companies slowly though, you know, slowly because they're very volatile, very volatile stocks. Uh, and long real estate exposure, which is lowvall. So those are hedges, right? Lowval. That's why I say it's like you don't have to invest in house act.
Read the offering circular before you do. You can invest in mortgage companies very slowly. You know, slowly diversify away. You take some profits from a Tesla or whatever. You slowly diversify away. This, in my opinion, gives you some upside in a credit event. The stocks could go down in the short term, but over time, as people start refinancing and unlocking their equity in their homes, that's when those mortgage company plays, I think, get very, very expensive very rapidly.
So, that's interesting. So, it all makes sense. Like, to me, I could put this together pretty simply by arguing that this is the criteria for being bullish. Uh, we lack catalysts, right? we lack catalysts until Jan 9 to13. Uh no news is good news. Uh and as long as we could stay positive then we could see the case for hiring in a soft landing.
Uh risk is uh that you know Jan 9 unemployment looks bad closer to 5%. participation rises, uh, layoffs accelerate rather than hiring. And then you have a credit event and you want hedges again via either real estate, uh, long or, you know, slow diversification to mortgage plays. Bank of America's heartnet reiterates that.
He always does the flow show piece, by the way. He's the guy that talks about that exposure of uh, of cash balances being at record lows, you know, 3.3%. big contrarian sell signal. JP Morgan is bullish 26. I looked at this list because I think JP Morgan could go to hell. Uh but I looked at their I hate them with a passion.
Um but um JP Morgan has a list of stock ideas for 2026. And so I wanted to look at their stocks to make sure none of my stocks were on their list. And I'm very happy to say that none of the course member top 10 stocks to buy are on the JP Morgan list. I'm very because like I contrarianly hate them. They didn't even which I did think was funny.
They didn't even put JP Morgan on their financial sheet for financial stocks, but they've got stocks on here like Alphabet, Roku, Disney, and I I'm tempted by Disney, but I haven't bought Disney yet. I actually have two Mag Sevens in my uh media and Teleico list on my top 10 stocks to buy that are not on here, which is great.
I'm very happy cuz I don't want I don't want to be where everybody else is, you know? then you can't make money if you're where everybody else is. You can't make money. Uh so very interesting. And I noticed they put Salesforce on here as one of their upside plays. I have a very Carvana. This is like stupid.
Uh very very dangerous play, especially in a downturn. Salesforce isn't bad. I have a very similar play that I think is better than Salesforce because their cash flow is better, their pricing power is better. Um I'll just give it to you. It'll be a free sample. Okay, free sample. I think that UIP path is a way better play.
Uh, and I actually I hope they go down because I I like I want to increase my exposure to them. But if you actually look at the financials for them, their pricing power is going up, their operating leverage is going up, their free cash flow is going up, they're buying back stock, they've got like a a fortress balance sheet, and they've got a kind of a cheap valuation because they've gone to crap since 21.
And so everybody's kind of forgotten about how UiPath has exposure to financial AI and healthcare AI without me having to actually pick healthcare and financial AI and maybe I should do a standalone video on it. But but you know I think that's a huge play. So this is a little freebie I guess uh over the long term.
You know I'm I I'm not I'm hoping it doesn't like have any kind of meme crap because you know then it makes it hard to buy. Uh Micron obviously had fantastic earnings this morning. uh or last night rather. They're kind of like the TSM of of uh America. Uh you have to be careful though because Micron is a very cyclical play and they're a lagging tell.
So don't look at Micron as a tell for what Oracle is going to do because you have to look at it like this. The way money goes is you borrow uh then you spend on data centers like Oracle then Oracle buys chips and memory right okay so that's the order so Micron shows up over here right so they're not a leading tell a leading tell is financing for data centers that that's at the far left side.
Uh, and and that's where you want to pay attention. This is why that OpenAI fundra is kind of important to pay attention to. Uh, somebody says somebody Tony, is this the same Tony as yesterday? Uh, we like Tony. I told Lauren I told um I talked to uh Lauren about Tony yesterday. Isn't skepticism around CPI the perfect setup for the next bull run as the market climbs a wall of worry into the next year and CPI eventually starts coming?
Yeah, I mean like I'm not worried about CPI. I actually agree with you that like even though these CPI numbers are rigged, okay, CPI is going to plummet in my opinion. I'm of the camp uh that CPI will come down no matter what. Uh, so I don't really care uh of this rigged data, but like to your point Tony, TS Lombard makes the argument that because they think markets are actually going to zoom, they think that inflation is a greater risk.
See, with pent-up demand, reflationary fiscal policy, and improving activity in Europe and China, we suspect the consensus is underestimating the strength of the US economy in 2026. that provides a bullish backdrop for risk assets in the first half. The problem is now that supply is constrained. So stronger growth will feed inflation, cutting the cutting cycle short, right?
So uh but yeah, I mean like this last CPI report was fugazi. I I don't think we can really justify a really rapid run in the short term on markets. Uh, and I'm more nervous about Oracle not holding up because I think that could drag down the cues. But I hope that if Oracle can stabilize, we could just have a nice bullish Christmas slowly move up towards January 9th without any kind of crazy panic.
Now on my bull bear scale, I've maintained 54 even after the CPI data. I don't really think it's data and neither does Nick T. You know, if you investigate what Nick T says, uh he tells us this is this is mostly uh like a fugazi number. Mind you, I also wrote on X here, Blackstone CEO says data center spending is extremely conservative and not bubble style work.
Everything is fine, right? Yeah. that to the extent that you believe um the Blackstone CEO. But anyway, Nick T says, "If you look over here, I am the same to Tony, your future BFF." What's up, Tony? Uh, okay. So, totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed owner's equivalent rent was zero for October.
I'm sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a 2-month average for rent at 0.06 and owner's equivalent rent at.13 is assuming October was zero. There is no world where this is a good idea, right? I mean, it's we know it's rigged, so we should ignore this data. And that's why in the alpha report that this morning,
it's because that's why I made the argument that institutions were going to snuff out the bull crap and they were going to be sellers. And that's why I was looking for a 607 bounce, which is exactly what we got today. You know, knock on wood, it was a good call. But, uh, but point is, I don't to me long term, this data doesn't matter.
Shortterm, as long as Oracle doesn't fall off a cliff or continue to fall off a cliff, we should be bullish between now through January 9th slowly on a lack of catalyst. There's no more news between now and January 9th. No Fed meetings, nothing. The biggest concern is that Open AI, this is the biggest risk.
Open AAI comes out and says, "Hey guys, we're effed. We can't raise money." That would be a big concern because it's so early in the cycle. Going back to Micron for a moment because I I feel like I didn't fully explain this. Micron is a very good business. They are very disciplined. They're free cash flow positive.
Pricing power is very strong. They're paying off debt. They're paying off $4.8 $8 of debt for every dollar they're buying back. This is a very strong business. But you have to understand it is late cycle. It is not the leading tell. Uh so if we get a leading tell like really open AAI failing over here, that's what you want to pay attention to.
This would be your biggest red flag is OpenAI not making money. That's the biggest concern to pay attention to. Now some other entertaining things that you could look at just from a pilot point of view. I mean, prayers obviously to Greg Biffle. I made a separate video on on good old Biff, but uh on a more entertaining side, where was it?
There was a um there's an FAA posting out Department of Transportation ruling out that companies like Archer and Joby might be able to conduct their air taxi services as regular airplanes rather than V talls, like vertical takeoffs. But if you miss the V in EV tall, you basically have EOTL e EOTl, you know, electric takeoff and land.
Nobody cares. Like I'd rather buy Cirrus Aviation stock them. So the whole vertical aspect is the whole damn point that I could go land at helipads and and land in places that planes can. I don't only want to go airport to airport. if I want to go airport to airport, I just fly a Cirrus. So, I wasn't really enthused about that.
And then I do think it's a little bit of a slow news day because uh the Wall Street Journal had this hilarious piece about how uh people uh are now praising the jetweight Jesus. And so basically the idea is that Tik Tok is circulating a hack to where you could get priority to board early if you ask for a wheelchair and then you get to prioritize like overhead compartment space.
But somehow miraculously when you land most of the passengers that needed wheelchairs to get on miraculously got up and walked towards baggage claim. And so people are now calling this this the jetway Jesus that basically somehow while people are on their planes, they are miraculously no longer disabled.
So they get the VIP experience going in and then they just get up and run out on the way out. Somehow on their flight they're able to be healed. It says here sometimes there are up to 50 wheelchairs boarding a plane that only seats 130 passengers. and all of a sudden people are healed by the time they land.
And so I thought it was potentially a sign of a slow news day that we're talking about the jetway Jesus uh on o also talking about how they let AI run their office vending machine. And apparently this clawed vending machine uh ended up giving out called Claudius ended up giving away PlayStations and a lot of food as a marketing experiment.
And they're like, "This AI sucks cuz it just gives away PlayStations, underwear, cigarettes, pepper spray, stun guns, and even live fish." Profits collapsed and newsroom morale soared. So apparently, um, the Claudius AI sucks at running a business, but it's very, very nice. You do have the Financial Times flagging uh about the warnings in in the CPI report, you know, basically saying that a lot of this data was imputed or interpolated or basically bull crap.
I kind of make the argument that Jerome Powell's right. We should take all this data with a grain of salt. Remember October where we happened to not get a jobs report was like the worst labor report we've seen since the you know co recession because we had like negative 150,000 jobs but nobody saw that headline because Trump buried it in the shutdown.
Of course he was able to release the October CPI numbers. So it's all kind of rigged. We can't really trust the numbers. And I think Jerome Powell is right to say don't trust the numbers. This is rigged. Be careful. take it all with a grain of salt. So, that just leaves me hoping that we keep seeing the data center financing place get their money and that's how you could be optimistic about the market.
As soon as that funding dries up, it's all crap. It all sucks. It all goes to poopy dupy. Uh, that's my take. So, anyway, with all that said, stay safe out there. Prayers obviously to the plane crash. We did cover the plane crash in a separate video this morning if you want to see what's going on with the um Cessna plane crash.
And uh well folks, good luck out there. Stay safe. I got to go do some work with house hack. Maybe we'll get over 2 million within a week today. I think we will given that we're $1,100 away. So, uh we'll see when the numbers start coming through. Anyway, thanks for being here, folks. .
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