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for supply from the USA to protect against geopolitical risks. Another reason to love Intel. Previously, under the previous CEO, Intel spent billions of dollars on factories, and it was complete chaos. With Geth, who is a real engineer, the problems were solved. Over the next few years, new production facilities will be launched , and I am confident that all of them will become profitable.
Today we learned that Intel has begun production on node 18A, which if successful could secure an order from Apple. Elon Musk's giant Terra project is another Intel partner. A lot of interesting things can happen. It's all thanks to Helsinger. I know that until recently this "pearl" of national importance was on the verge of survival.
Last year, the stock fell to about $18, and that was the bottom . First the government and then Nvidia were forced to step in and literally buy back shares to save the company. Since then, Helsinger has been able to correct one area after another, and the results have been extraordinary. The stock rose more than 100 points.
Of course, I could tell you, "Here, 100 points, don't miss this, losers ." But, as I have said many times, this approach is not working with this group right now. He has been out of work for over a year. A revolution is happening, and this revolution needs as many processors as possible. Processors are Intel's specialty.
This is the king of production volumes. They will be needed because I think processors will eventually become like DRAM now, which forced Apple to raise prices. This means you will reach the deficit level and you will be greeted by a flurry of upward revisions in forecasts and target prices. Here is the main conclusion.
I do n't want to give up the discipline of not touching stocks that have skyrocketed. But when it comes to data center technology equipment, sometimes you may simply have no choice. You can't afford to worry about where these stocks have been before. You only have to care about where they are going.
And when it comes to Intel, I think the answer is up. Good. Now let's move on to Hope, Ohio. Hope. Congratulations. Hope. Greetings. Greetings. How are you? Greetings. I'm fine. How are you , Hope? Great, thank you. Good. What's interesting? I wanted to hear your opinion about Marriott. Let's talk a little about Marriott.
Good. Here's how it is with Marriott. OK. I told this personally to the CEO. This is what I call a stock that is growing. Every time Mary falls, I just have to look at the chart to see what to do, and I stand my ground . And, you know, it's really incredible. I do n't feel this way about any other hotel company.
Marriott is the best. Now let's move on to Sunny from Illinois. Sunny, hi Jim, a huge "buoy" to you from Eganberry from Orland Park, Illinois. How are you, my friend? Oh man, that's a powerful geographic "buoy," thank you for it. What is happening? Hi, I'm a club member and a longtime fan. I love your new book, How to Make Money in Any Market, but I have to be honest, Get Rich Slowly was my favorite, Jim.
"Rich Be Cautious" was my favorite. "Rich beware." You know, it sold well. I thought it might be better for funding the next, you know, big innovation, data centers. And there are a lot of people who look at these levels of profitability and say, "Yeah, I want to be a part of this." So, we think we 're at a pretty good point in terms of yield, and you don't necessarily have to wait for rates to go down or up just to have some income in your portfolio.
You are not an expert in fixed income instruments. That's right. But I remember decades of incredible economic growth and stock market performance when we were well above 5%. Is n't that right? This was not an obstacle. Business didn't say, "Oh my god, that's 7%." And when the rate dropped from seven or eight to six, we never thought it would drop below six.
So, you know, we were in this...I don't know what level is historically correct, what was an anomaly, but look at the 80s, by the way, I wanted to quickly check: what was it like during the dot-com bubble? I know what the 10-year bond rate was. Well, let Kelsey answer that question. Kelsey, I'm right that we were above six, if not approaching six with something, when it accelerated around '99, right?
And at that time, there were incredible levels of business investment, and we may be returning to those levels. You know, right now we need to see, I would say, that business investment in the US is still quite concentrated. You don't see a lot of business investment outside of the technology sector.
But really the question you're raising is , is the policy restrictive? And Wall was actually asked this question several times at press conferences. And he said the situation is uneven, right? There are certain sectors of the economy, like housing, where we are definitely restrictive. But if you look at the financial markets, Yes.
It's hard to say we're being restrictive, how long have we been sympathetic to the elderly and others who had no choice, other risk-averse people, retirees and people like Kelly, who I didn't know I was leading to the fact that they really need a high risk-free rate of interest where they can earn real income.
Listen, I'm already so burned. January 2000 , we were at the level of , I don't know if we can show a graph for 25 or 30 years. Here for the seniors and Kelly, by the way, in 1998 we were at 4.74 on the 10- year bond. In November 1998, we were at four and a half. Look deeper. Go back to the beginning, go back to 93.
In 1993, we were at level six. So, we were at level 8 in '91. 91st. They dropped to 5.6, everything was fine until the end . Yes, everything is fine. And then look up. In 1994, we were at level seven. In 1995 and 1996, we were at level six. In 1998, we were at level four. Here it is, the long-term schedule.
Yes, inflation was probably higher too. So it was logical. So the real rates are probably similar. Yes, that's right. The real rates now are actually quite high compared to history and are more in line with the periods you just discussed. We need to talk about what's happening in the semiconductor market right now, because after one of the strongest rallies of the year, some of the largest AI hardware stocks are suddenly experiencing a sharp pullback.
Micron is falling rapidly from its recent high. Samsung has shown extremely strong profit growth, and yet the stock is selling off. Memory maker stocks, which seemed unstoppable just a few weeks ago, are suddenly experiencing significant volatility , and investors are asking the same question again.
Is this just a healthy correction within a strong bull market, or are we seeing the first signs that the AI hardware cycle is nearing its peak? I believe the answer is much more complicated than either side of this debate wants to admit, because it's important for investors to understand: huge winners rarely move up in a straight line.
One analyst recently studied companies that grew tenfold in 5 years, and the median company experienced about a 50 percent pullback somewhere along the way. Think about that for a moment. These are companies that later become ten-fold leaders and some of the best investments , but investors still had to endure huge falls on the way to success.
This does not mean that every stock that falls 50% will eventually recover. Obviously this is not the case , but it demonstrates something extremely important. Volatility alone does not indicate that the fundamental investment thesis is broken, and that is exactly the situation investors are trying to understand about Micron today.
Micron has experienced an extraordinary rally. The company benefited from one of the strongest memory markets in history. Artificial intelligence has created a huge demand for high- bandwidth memory. The supply remained unchanged , customers tried to secure capacity for years to come, and Micron's profitability systematically increased.
But after such a massive rally, stocks became vulnerable to correction. Investors booked profits and momentum weakened. Expectations became extremely high , and suddenly every piece of news surrounding the memory industry began to attract huge attention. But here's where the situation gets more interesting.
Despite the pullback, many analysts continue to believe that Micron remains fundamentally undervalued. One estimate suggests that Micron could trade at about four to five times annual potential peak earnings and about 10 times normalized earnings. If these estimates are even remotely correct, then the market is pricing Micron as if the current memory cycle will soon collapse , and historically that makes sense, as memory has always been one of the most cyclical industries in the semiconductor market.
Demand is growing, prices are rising, and margins are widening. Manufacturers are investing billions of dollars in new production facilities. More supply enters the market, prices fall, margins disappear , and the cycle begins again. Investors have seen this movie many times before. That's why the market remains skeptical.
The most important question surrounding Micron is not whether the company is making huge profits today.
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