저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 랠리는 아직 유효하며 2025년 하반기도 강세 추세 지속 전망. 과거 약 7번의 유사 2개월 급등 후 3·6·12개월 모두 상승했다는 역사 데이터 제시. 엔비디아 신고가 및 반도체 내 순환매 진행 중이며 메모리(마이크론 등) 공급 부족이 장기간 지속될 것으로 봄. 애플 가격 인상은 마진 방어 차원이며 수요 영향은 미미하다고 평가.
다듬은 글
How do you read this today? What impact will this have on Apple? There seems to be a lot of pain here. I look at a quote from Tim Cook for the Wall Street Journal in mid- June where he said, quote, “This is a flood of a century. "I've never seen anything like this in any region in over 40 years." Yes.
Look, they had to do it, and in our opinion, the price of the iPhone will also increase by $150-200. But if you look at the gross margin and what that does, ultimately we're talking about a churn of maybe one to two percent of some high-end products, and I just think they're trying to get ahead of that.
Ultimately, Intel and the other partnerships they have will be able to navigate this; their supply chain tactics. But that just goes to show . It was something like a "no"; they had to raise prices. It was a good time to make sure they did it, that margins didn't go down trying to get ahead of it. I mean, they react to it.
How do they get ahead of something? They react to what they see in the market. Yes, Scott. I think given this price increase, I would actually consider it. They waited as long as they could. I mean, you could argue they could have done this 6 months ago. And the reason they're doing it now is because they realize when it comes to their elasticity and what they think the churn could be, when you look at the actual growth, we're talking about a maximum of 1.2% churn.
So I think they realize that despite what happened with stocks, and I think it's an overreaction compared to what it's actually going to be like in terms of demand, the supply chain dictated it. They held on as long as possible , but I think the price increase will be less when it comes to the iPhone.
And they are embarking on a three-year, massive equipment acquisition cycle. They need to do this at the beginning. Sure, but why such an overreaction in stocks if the Reds just lose to the Brewers? But who cares? They can beat the Yankees. They can't beat anyone else. Yes. Good. Um, you kept talking about an inflationary year, but that wouldn't necessarily be bad for the stock market.
Um, you like to look at history. We are up 20% from the March lows. What happens after such a movement? When was the last time you saw such a two-month movement? Very rarely. It's rare, I think you're saying it's because of COVID, right? And then again after Liberation Day, right? So it's quite rare.
Joe, we are up 19.5% in 42 trading days . It's been two months. As you just said, we looked at history. This has only happened seven times in the world. What happened after that? You are higher. After three months, every time, after 6 months, every time, and after a year, every time. Every time. Every time, seven months–this is a small sample.
Yes. But when there are so many other things we can pay attention to, I think this consolidation, if you will, during June is quite normal. I mean, the June slump , the second half of June is usually not that good. This is where we are now. And you were talking about it before I came. It's clear that the AI trade is back.
So we are still quite optimistic after this small consolidation of the June decline. It's 1999 , and we've just lost to Greenspan. You don't notice it either. Uh , I'm doing it. I was aware, but we pointed out the irrational rampage that was in 1996 . Hmm. So a lot happened between '96 and '99 that added to the mayhem.
Right. You look at the stock chart of Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital, or any of these companies, and it looks like 1990-1999. But we just saw Micron numbers that completely confirm the bullish forecast or even more than confirm it. They give the impression that prices may even go higher. So, as I said before, this time it's different , because it's backed up by the numbers.
Well, no, it's true. That's right . And you know, this speech, I believe it was on December 5, 1996, when he talked about this, and the S&P doubled for the next three and a half years or so. And the NASDAQ rose by about 300%. So 300-300%. So this can happen. Um, you know, I think what's interesting about the last few days is just really...By the way, welcome back, Andrew.
Thank you. So, what happened in the last few days? The market was falling, yes , but two days ago it fell 1.4% for the S&P 500. However, yesterday more stocks in the S&P 500 rose than fell. Yes, practically unchanged, but over 300 stocks rose. So, the technology sector did n't perform very well, but what did ?
Financial, industrial, healthcare. I know a lot of guests have talked about this, but this rotation is real. And the way we look at it , Joe, is like a barbell approach. Yes, we still have a little bit of a technology bias here, but to have some financials and some industrials here. I don't want to get too carried away with the tech trade, but we call our forecast "riding the wave," and our mid-year forecast will be out very soon.
It's called "Still Riding the Wave." Very creative, I know. But these waves are still real, in our opinion. Well, there is an internal rotation because the chips have retreated and now it looks like they might be letting you know about an obstacle in the road. Have we overcome it? I think so. Do you think so?
Nvidia is also hitting new highs. And another thing to think about is it's July, and I know seasonal changes, right? July is historically a pretty strong month, one of the strongest months , especially in the last 20 years. And why is that? There are several reasons, but I think earnings season is an important period.
And we're going to find out soon with these big tech names, names in AI, deployment, spending, capital spending. Hmm, when it comes to artificial intelligence, we don't think it's slowing down, and it's likely to still be a net positive for this bull market, which is still alive and well. A year of inflationary growth, your inflationary part of this may have shown the worst levels.
I'm talking about inflation. Yes. Given what's happening with crude oil and energy prices, it's likely, but again, we talked about inflationary growth. We thought inflation would be around 3-3 1/2% this year. But again, with a strong economy led by profits, led by many things, profits and , um, margins.
All this is reproduced. What's interesting about inflation is looking at core inflation, right? As we know, it again excludes energy carriers . We are seeing rising inflation in services. We are seeing rising commodity inflation. Well, um, Tim Cook said that last week about Apple, right? Rising prices, but that probably means higher margins too.
That's why these stocks have held up well since he said it. And they are lagging behind, but the real story is much more serious. Something is still ongoing. Demand for chips remains extremely high, and memory companies are making huge profits. Spending on AI infrastructure continues to rise , and yet Nvidia is one of the biggest players in the semiconductor sector.
Think about it. The company at the center of the artificial intelligence revolution is watching other chip stocks surge ahead. So what exactly is happening? Is Wall Street preparing for the end of Nvidia's dominance, or is the money simply moving to the next group of companies that will benefit from the development of artificial intelligence?
Because when you look beneath the surface, the answer becomes much more interesting. The AI trade is changing. 3 years ago, investing in artificial intelligence was easy. Thanks to Nvidia, AI needed GPUs, cloud providers, the government, everyone wanted more computing power. And Nvidia controls the most important part of the infrastructure.
But today the AI ecosystem is much larger. Building entire data centers requires much more than just accelerators. You need memory, networking equipment, storage, power generation, cooling system, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and a huge physical infrastructure. This means that investors are discovering a new winner in the AI supply chain.
Money doesn't necessarily leave artificial intelligence. They are moving deeper into the infrastructure needed to support it. Why has memory become the new focus of attention? The most striking example is memory. For decades, memory manufacturers were treated as commodity divisions . When demand increased, prices rose.
Companies expanded production, and eventually supply caught up with them. The price fell, and the whole cycle started over. But artificial intelligence has created a completely different demand environment. Modern AI systems require huge amounts of high-performance memory. Without sufficient memory, the world's most powerful accelerators cannot operate efficiently.
And suddenly the industry discovered something important. Increasing computing power means systematically consuming more memory. That's why companies like Micron have become some of the biggest beneficiaries of the current AI investment cycle. The deficit cannot be solved overnight. The obvious question is simple: if memory prices are rising, why shouldn't the manufacturer produce more?
Because advanced semiconductor manufacturing doesn't work that fast. New factories require billions of dollars. Clean rooms need to be built , equipment installed, and engineers hired. The production process must be qualified and production must be improved before large-scale production can begin. This entire process can take years.
Meanwhile, spending on AI infrastructure continues. More data centers are being built , more accelerators are being deployed, and more memory is needed. This is why the supply-demand imbalance will persist for much longer than investors initially expected.
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