저자: SanjayMehrotra/진행:JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론 CEO는 분기 매출 1,330억 달러(전년비 250%↑), 매출총이익률 87%를 발표했고 다음 분기 가이던스는 86.25%라고 밝힘. 성과급 인상이 영업비용과 매출원가에 반영돼 이익률에 일시적 영향이 있다고 설명. 고객 장기 공급계약은 8월 20일 26건으로 늘었다고 하며, 기존 계약 연장 및 신규 계약이 2031년까지 이어지고 수요를 충족하지 못하는 상황이라고 주장. 크레이머는 과거 메모리 부족이 과잉 투자 이후 발생했다는 점을 들어 이익률 하락 가능성을 지적하며 반론을 제기. 발언 후반부 진행자 등은 AI 관련 재난 대비 보고서(Axios) 및 Zeta Global 관련 내용을 다루며, 업계 리더들이 AI 재난 이후 상황을 모델링한다는 보도를 소개하고 출연자들은 과장일 수 있다고 평가. 마지막 해설부는 마이크론(432% 상승, 목표 제한), 엔비디아(300달러 목표가 분석 언급), 마이크로소프트의 AI 수익화 가능성을 제시하고, 주가가 이미 크게 오른 종목은 조정 위험이 있다고 언급. 스페이스X 관련 약 140억 달러 투자 보도도 소개.
다듬은 글
I keep wondering why stocks are falling. Maybe this is a mistake. Data center revenue has increased 11 times, but that's not the main story. We'll find out what went wrong last night, because I think it's a big mistake to think everything was bad. Joining us now exclusively on CNBC is Micron Chairman and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra.
First of all, I want to congratulate you, Sanjay, and thank you for coming to the show. Thank you, Jim. I'm so happy to be on your show again. Thank you. Now I want to move on to gross margin, which was extraordinary here. Anyone who's followed your company for many years knows that this...I mean, Andy Grove, perhaps the greatest semiconductor executive of all time, would say, "This is impossible.
"Your numbers are impossible." But Wall Street seems to have remained unsatisfied. The more I study this, the more I realize that even since '94, the only time you've had a shortage was when too many companies started making chips. It wasn't a shortage. It was your decision to pay employees more money.
This is literally a share of the profits. Can you explain to people the difference between the so- called "drop" in profits due to the decision to pay people a little more, versus the influx of new chips, which usually destroys gross margins and profitability. Jim, we delivered an exceptional quarter, an exceptional year with $133 billion in revenue, up 250% year-over- year, with a gross margin of 87% in the fiscal fourth quarter .
And we gave a forecast of 86.25% gross margin, about the same for our first fiscal quarter , the current quarter. So, the Micron team truly delivered an exceptional quarter. And of course, you know, consistent with our record quarter, we rewarded our team members in a record way with their incentive compensation, which impacted operating expenses in our fiscal fourth quarter .
But since the fourth quarter incentive compensation for production employees is carried over to the cost of goods sold in the first quarter, this impacts our gross margin, however, we are forecasting a very good gross margin at 86.25%. We are very pleased and proud to have been able to motivate our team members in line with our record results.
It is important for us to be competitive . It is important for us to attract, retain and motivate our talent so that our momentum is maintained. Jim, memory is key in this age of AI or superintelligence. It is this memory that provides intelligence. This improves intelligence, and Micron has a comprehensive portfolio of technologies, products, manufacturing capabilities, and we continue to capitalize on rapidly growing opportunities.
So, Sanjay, I visited you on August 20th in Boise. You had 26 strategic agreements with clients. You've been there since , uh, you had 16. You just called the number 26. Where, how did you get 10 new ones since August 20th? Jim, not only do we have more customers looking to enter into long-term supply agreements with us, but customers with whom we already have strategic agreements are also coming to us with additional demand.
In fact, we cannot meet the demand of our customers. Customers are extending these agreements even now until 2031. We have implemented both extensions and new agreements with a term until 2031. This gives us tremendous transparency, certainty about demand, and it helps us plan our investments in production capacity with confidence .
And, of course, this provides the advantage of guaranteed supplies to our customers and the opportunity to confidently develop their business. So, this just reflects the importance of memory in the age of artificial intelligence. Memory is absolutely critical for scaling AI to deliver value to end users and of course, deliver a reliable experience, as memory enhances the value proposition of computing platforms that are being deployed and continue to rapidly evolve in the AI era.
to a record high. He needs to close with a 53- point gain, which he just did. And with 34 minutes left in trading, that puts him on track for a record-breaking 29th close this year if he can hold on. It is now slightly below the 53-point gain. Okay, we already talked about this . Some say that fears that AI will destroy humanity are completely absurd, but companies on the front lines probably don't think so.
According to an Axios report published today, industry leaders and competitors including Anthropic and OpenAI are quietly modeling what would happen the day after a catastrophic AI-related event, including public backlash, possible uprisings, and calls for tighter regulation. The article notes that these leaders are expecting, I quote, a "large-scale event," and not the best one, which will lead to the disruption of access to financial services, internet connections, and extremely important services such as electricity and water supply.
This now poses a critical question for businesses. How to harness the positive power of AI while protecting confidential data and ensuring the safety of systems and people? Today, on an exclusive Fox Business broadcast, I'm joined by the founders of Zeta Global, ay that uses AI and consumer data to help companies better understand their customers and personalize marketing.
Former Apple CEO John Sculley and Zeta CEO David Steinberg are already with us. John, regarding the preparation for " the next day" that Axios is writing about, whether AI companies are working together or separately, what do you think about this Axios report? I...I haven't seen that report, Liz, so I really can't comment on it.
Okay, well, I'll tell you: it's about these guys being so worried that they're creating what's called a "next-day report " in case there's a large-scale human uprising against AI. I think that's a big exaggeration, at least from what I know. We have a lot of really smart people running AI companies, and I think we need to see a little more detail about who is raising these issues.
I haven't heard of it . Of course, we've seen a lot of information about what could happen if something goes wrong with AI and it starts acting on its own without human assistance, but I don't even know if that's what you're talking about. David, let me reach out to you because you do business with many companies that are supposedly discussing this and preparing for this development .
Does this surprise you? Did they involve you in these discussions? I mean, we spend a lot of time with these guys, Liz, as we've discussed. And I would say that it's quite possible that they're discussing scenarios where, you know, if AI gets out of control, they're thinking about how to contain it.
Honestly, I would be shocked if it went this far because I do n't think they believe it would come to this . That is, these are not the conversations we have about artificial intelligence at all. Most of our conversations about AI focus on how it can make the world better, not worse. But, like John, I haven't seen this report.
If it exists or if this work is underway, I personally do not know about it. David, let me continue with you, because one of the things they call a " doomsday event" is a certain massive cybersecurity breach . You ensure the protection of customer data, and this is critical for the models that Zeta has just introduced.
You have a new operating system for enterprise intelligence called Athena OS. What does it do and how does it simplify the workflow while keeping customer data secure? Your clients include BMW and TJX. Yes, I mean 51% of Fortune 100 companies trust us. There is a money problem in AI not because companies have stopped investing, nor because the demand for computing has disappeared, but because Wall Street is starting to ask a much harder question.
When will all these expenses turn into stable profits? And this question could determine the next major step for Nvidia , Micron, Microsoft, and the entire AI infrastructure market. Let's start with a company that investors may still be undervaluing. Micron, a memory chip maker , has already shown extraordinary growth, with market commentary indicating a gain of approximately 432% over the past year.
And even after such a jump, some investors believe that the stock has the potential for further growth . Their argument is simple. , data centers require increasingly powerful computing systems supported by large amounts of modern memory. When demand outstrips supply, producers gain a pricing advantage, which can lead to increased revenue and potentially much higher profits.
Micron could also benefit from another development—the next generation of AI-enabled personal computers. If consumers and businesses start replacing older machines with systems designed to work with AI, this could create another source of demand for memory. The bullish sentiment also points to the company's financial health with approximately $68.3 billion in net cash mentioned during the discussion.
But there is one nuance. Stocks that have already more than quadrupled in value could fall sharply even if the underlying business remains strong. Investors should distinguish between a great company and a stock whose future growth is already reflected in its price. This discussion brings us to Nvidia.
The company remains a central link in building AI infrastructure. And some analysts believe its future capabilities extend beyond the current data center market. Consider physical AI. Robotics, automated machines, and other systems capable of interacting with the real world could create additional demand for advanced computing.
If these markets develop at scale, Nvidia's potential opportunities could expand significantly. One analyst discussed a $300 price target, suggesting that the long-term potential could be higher. This is an investment thesis, not a guaranteed result. Importantly , investors are increasingly valuing Nvidia based on what AI can become, not just what the product is today.
And this creates both opportunities and risks. Now let's look at Microsoft. Its advantage comes from another part of the AI economy . Microsoft already has connections with companies around the world. It operates a large cloud platform, sells enterprise software, and has many ways to integrate AI into its existing products.
As companies move from experimenting with AI to implementing it into their operations, Microsoft's cloud business could benefit. But investors ultimately need evidence that customers are willing to pay enough for these services to justify the infrastructure costs. This is the same exam that every major AI company takes.
And this test becomes even more difficult when we consider the broader ecosystem. Cybersecurity firms stand to benefit as organizations deploy AI agents that access sensitive information and perform tasks. Enterprise software vendors can help businesses organize data and integrate AI into existing systems.
Networking and memory companies could benefit as computing infrastructure becomes more complex. The opportunities extend across the industry. However, not every company will receive the same share of the value. Some will possess critical technologies. Some will provide interchangeable components. Others may have difficulty converting growing demand into sustainable profits.
The next phase of this market could reward companies according to their actual position in the AI economy, not simply for their involvement in the trend. And then there's SpaceX. Reports discussed in market commentary point to a financial effort of around $14 billion tied to its broader ambitions.
The most interesting thing is that SpaceX's potential evolution goes beyond their traditional business.
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