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결론: 발표자는 Pershing Square Holdings(PSH)가 순자산가치(NAV) 대비 약 30% 할인되어 거래되고 있어 장기적으로 매력적인 투자라고 평가하며, 할인율이 축소될 것으로 본다. 펀드 구조 및 빌 애크먼 개요: PSH는 런던증권거래소에 상장된 폐쇄형 펀드로 영구자본을 가지며, 2020년 9월 말 기준 NAV는 주당 약 44.7달러, 주가는 약 33.75달러였다. 애크먼의 투자 실적: 최근 15~16년간 PSH 수익률 16.2%로 S&P500(9.2%)을 상회했으나, 최근 5년 중 3년은 부진했다. 2019년(58%)과 2020년 상반기(74%)에는 큰 반등을 보였다. 애크먼의 투자 원칙 8가지: 단순하고 예측 가능한 사업, 잉여현금흐름 창출, 지배적 시장지위, 높은 진입장벽, 높은 자본수익률, 통제 불가 외부 리스크 노출 제한, 강한 재무구조, 우수한 경영·지배구조. 과거 실패 사례: Valeant(약 30억 달러 이상 손실 후 2017년 매도), JCPenney(주당 약 20달러 매수 후 약 12~13달러로 하락, 약 5억 달러 손실), Herbalife 공매도(주가 회복으로 큰 손실은 아니나 차입비용 부담). 포트폴리오 분석: 주식 포트폴리오 약 85억 달러, 7개 종목 집중. PSH 현재 이익수익률 4.6%, 2021년 예상 8.2%로, S&P500 PE 36배 대비 저평가. 2021년 예상 주당순이익 성장률 약 77%. 촉매 요인: 자사주 매입, FTSE 100 편입, 높은 자기자본이익률(ROE), 새로운 투자전략에 따른 변동성 감소, 매크로 베팅 수익의 재투자, 실적 성장, PSTH 스팩 합병 관련 워런트(주당 20달러 행사가, 현재 약 25달러 거래). 리스크: 포트폴리오 가치 하락 가능성, 애크먼의 공격적 행동 재발 가능성, 투자 복잡성. 발표자 결론: 할인율이 완전히 해소되지는 않더라도 상당 부분 축소될 것이며, 현재 주가는 NAV 대비 약 25~30% 저평가 상태로 본다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to part two of our pershing square holdings analysis in this video we'll be doing a deep analysis on psh and deciding whether we feel is a good investment at the moment pershing square holdings ticker symbol psh is bill ackman's investment fund that trades on the london stock exchange pershing square owns a significant stake in blue chip u.s companies such as lowe's hilton starbucks chipotle and others the fund's net asset value is around 8.8 billion as of 30th of september 2020 or 44.7 uh dollars per share versus a share price of 33.75 it is a closed end fund which means it's a portfolio of pooled assets that raise a fixed amount of capital through an ipo and then list the shares for trade on a stock exchange this means they have permanent capital rather than your typical hedge fund who invests with their clients money and earns a management fee this mitigates the risk that investors clients will will pull their money out in times of distress which would kill the majority of investing approaches but especially akron's long-term hold approach as ackman said in his interview we covered in the previous video he sees pershing square as an investment holdings company that owns businesses with great runways for growth ahead and with real equity value not just another fund before we dive deep into psh if we're to invest in bill ackman's company let's first look at who bill ackman is and what his investment record looks like bill ackman is both celebrated and criticized for his confidence and tenacity when it comes to making big bets on a handful of positions his all-or-nothing approach has led to some of the greatest most rewarding calls in the investing world but also some of the biggest busts ackman is considered an activist investor by most due to his traditional strategy being to buy the common stocks of public companies when he thinks they are undervalued and pushes for changes so the market can realize the value of the companies some background on ackman his first real step into the investment world was when he founded gotham partners with fellow harvard graduate david birchwich the firm grew from making small investments in public companies to making big bets on shorts and credit default swaps which both paid off uh although not without causing major hassle to the firm in some cases in 2004 he founded pershing square capital management with other business partners using their own money and in 2012 ackman launched a new closed end fund called pershing square holdings which raised 3 billion in an ipo on the euro next stock market if we look at akman's performance versus the s p 500 we can see that over a 15 16 year period he has managed to outperform the market we've got 16.2 percent uh for psh versus 9.2 percent for the s p however if we just look at and concentrate over the past five years we can see he's significantly underperformed the market for three consecutive years for reasons that we'll cover in the investment bus however in 2019 and 2020 this is just got the first half for now um have really caused a turnaround for aquin achieving 58 and 74 respectively beating the market by some way he credits his turnaround to an adjustment in the investment philosophy he claims they made bold moves that strayed from their core principles of investing and that they would not make the same mistake again and so here are his principles of investing or eight rules for investing what he needs in a company to now invest in them and we've got first simple and predictable businesses second free cash flow generative third dominant market position fourth large barriers to entry fifth higher returns on capital sixth limited exposure to non-controllable extrinsic risks seven strong balance sheet where outside capital is not necessary eight excellent management and good governance and really it looks similar to you know the warren buffett type approach of looking at or looking for quality businesses he doesn't mention much about prices to be honest with you he's more focused on the characteristics of a business and there's not many businesses in the world let alone the us that meet all of these eight requirements but obviously what led to these eight rules or principles of investing uh being so ingrained in pershing square was the investment bus that caused poor performance for two to three years straight due to ackman betting quite heavily on businesses that didn't just not work out uh but proved to be a disaster so first of all we've got valiant pharmaceuticals he originally entered around 180 per share they took an 8.5 stake in the entire company and it was thoroughly smashed following accusations of fraud against valiant valiant battled against a bundle of challenges that led to the deterioration of the stock although the company lived to tell the tale it has since changed its name to try and move on from the scandal in march 2017 pershing square sold its entire position after 18 months of trying to save it realizing a loss of more than 3 billion and then another more notable investment bust was jcpenney this was quite a while back now but still very well known ackman was able to invest in jcpenney's stock around 20 per share after it declined from around 80 per share the business was going for a very rough patch he figured the brand could still be salvaged however and that its real estate portfolio still had value thus ackman's pershing square took a 16 stake in the company akman managed to gain significant power on the board and appointed a replacement ceo who had ideas to change the company and cutting a long story short the changes didn't work out and actually drove customers away it said the shares are sold for around 12 to 13 per share meaning he lost almost 500 million on the investment he wasn't alone on betting on the turnaround of jcpenney successful investors such as george soros richard perry and carl bass all followed his move and it just shows that sometimes even the smart money can be wrong and in a very big way of course there is herbalife as well i've kept it off of here uh herbalife was obviously an investment flop of ackman's uh but more so to do with the borrowing costs that he had to encounter and the bad publicity that came with it he shorted the stock and it dropped significantly in the first few months after and then come back up to its previous level so he didn't make any money on it and and really he did make a loss but it was more from the borrowing costs so we've covered uh psh's track record it's essentially bill ackman's record we have also covered the structure of the firm being a closed-end fund with permanent capital we've looked at pershing square's investment philosophy and principles as again they're essentially bill ackman's now let's look within the fund and do some analysis to see what we would essentially be buying if we bought psh stock here is pershing square stock portfolio now remember this is just the stock portfolio and doesn't account for any cash or other securities they own they made a significant amount of other income off of trade such as the recent two billion dollars of profit made in the 2020 bet against uh corporate bomb rate there is also the warrants attached to the pershing square tontines back that means shareholders of pershing square holdings psh stock will receive 1.5 to maybe three percent of the market cap of the new merged company when taken public but we'll get into that in a moment so when we conduct a look through analysis we start to see where the value is in pershing square stock it's selling at obviously 70 of net asset value which we already covered whilst measuring against net asset value is deemed risky and not great measure by some people if we look at the underlying metrics it means that psh is selling at around 21 times uh current portfolio earnings which are here and only 12 times uh 2021 portfolio projected earnings which are over here and that's an earnings yield of 4.6 currently and 8.2 earnings yield in 2021.
meanwhile the s p 500 has a pe ratio of 36 times and the securities individually they're selling for 30 times so the holdings themselves individually on the stock market are selling below the market norm to be honest with you a forward earnings yield of 8.2 is always a great indicator that the price is going to move up eventually because there's not many places in the market you can find a forward earnings yield of 8.2 and there's definitely not many places where you can get a current earnings of 8.2 so that's an indicator that if those projections can be reached the stock price for psh will likely move up quite significantly so why is pershing square holding stocks selling at such a significant discount to net asset value well apart from the reason uh ackman mentioned in the interview we watched about them being listed on the european exchanges and the awareness of the fund not being huge outside of the us and also not being part of the indexes until last month which prohibited domestic funds from buying its stock another reason generally is that closed end funds tend to trade below net asset value although the margin is usually a lot smaller you tend to see around three to five percent discount to account for the volatility of the liquid assets that sit behind it in this case publicly traded stocks however i feel the reasons for the 30 discount to net asset value are more likely to be the patchy five-year performance of the fund losing money uh three years in a row due to some bad investments prior to 2018-2019 the portfolio is also highly concentrated eight and a half billion in just seven stocks that comes with great results when your picks are right but a volatile net asset value as one of the largest stocks can move the needle with a drop in value at any point one interesting point to consider here is pershing square tontine holdings the highly spoke about spack that is made up of entirely cash trades at over 106 percent of its net asset value so investors are relying solely on the investors ability to find a great investment but yet psh trades at only 70 of net asset value but is managed by the same investment team and owns sponsor warrant that means it's a one billion dollar forward purchaser of the spac common stock with the right to increase to buy an additional 2 billion at any point at twenty dollars per share that is it's already trading at twenty five dollars per share with no merger or investment announced so in the event that pershing square taunting holdings completes a successful merger pershing square holdings stock and shareholders will hold a significant stake in the new company and probably achieve a big return on the 20 per share investment there is also the fact that psh has a net cash position of 1.7 billion in addition to the large stock portfolio sponsor warrants and forward purchase commitments we don't know yet what he is planning to purchase with the spac proceeds but names such as airbnb were floated originally as well as names like stripe more recently now let's talk about the catalyst for the stock and for future growth i listed some throughout the interview in the previous video but here they are as well as uh two editions so first of all buybacks they're buying back hundreds of millions worth of stock essentially putting their money where their mouth is when they say they think it's undervalued and they're accumulating it as much as they can while the discount asset value is still around 30 secondly added to the index in this case the ftse 100 and to be honest with you they are one of uh if not the most attractive stocks in the ftse 100 index it doesn't have a terrible amount of good stocks in the index i must say third high returns on equity high returns on shareholder equity that will result in book value growth and will grow shareholder equity at a double digit rate should the high roe continue fourth new and improved investment strategy likely leading to less volatility which may over time cause the discount to net asset value to reduce fifth ackman's ability to make big bets on macroeconomic trends which should provide book value growth from getting profits or proceeds from the trades and then reinvesting those into securities to compound gains which is what we saw in 2020 with the big bet against the market and all of those proceeds being reinvested back into the portfolio sixth underlying earnings uh earnings per share to grow at around 77 in 2021 from an earnings yield of 40 oh sorry from an earnings yield of 4.6 to 8.2 it's very unlikely the underlying securities will not move up in value if the projections are anywhere near accurate just think 77 percent eps growth combined it's very unlikely that will not move the needle on the market cap of all the companies and then seven the warrants to purchase up to three billion of the tontine spec merger at twenty dollars per share as we said psth is already trading at 25 so there's a a chance to make some very good profit there so to be honest with you anyone who was uh looking to invest in the tontine spac but turns their nose up at uh regular psh stock really should rethink their strategy is although you're not getting full exposure to the tontine's back merger here you are getting a much better value deal considering it's already trading above 25 per share and you would essentially be getting uh buying warrants to own it at 20 per share once the merger happens in summary is pershing square holdings a good investment in my opinion it's hard to argue you're not getting value from investing in psh stock there are significant catalysts that will likely lift the stock price in the future even if the 30 discount to net asset value is not closed in my opinion the 30 gap will close uh may not close to 100 of net asset value but it will close the gap somewhat especially given the recent addition to the index we've already seen it drop to around 27 to 30 over the christmas new year period due to these reasons i could see it being a long-term winner with book value growing at a rate close to return on equity say 16 to 20 and ackman being able to make big trades that produce lumpy profits to be reinvested into this stock portfolio which is compounding at its best time to be more definitive i would say that pershing square should probably trade at or around its net asset value even trailing it say three to five percent will probably be more suitable meaning that it's currently around 25 to 30 percent undervalued in my eyes there is of course risk involved just because there are catalysts and a slight margin of safety doesn't mean the value of the portfolio can't drop for any reason therefore reducing psh's overall value or maybe ackman returns to making bold activist moves and produces a horrible investment however i think he's learnt his lesson the hard way and it shouldn't happen again also it is quite a complicated investment considering all the stones you have turn over in order to analyze the business you have to really see if it fits your investment principles and investing goals and maybe conduct some more research of your own if you are not sure but let me know in the comments below what you think of psh and bill ackman are you investing in either psh or psth or is it a pass all together for you if you enjoyed the video please be sure to leave a like and subscribe to the channel for more analysis and stock market valuations let me know in the comments if there are any specific stocks that you want value in next time but until next time good luck with your investments
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