저자: FindingAlpha · 외국인
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결론: 발표자는 Berkshire Grey(AACQ SPAC 합병)에 대해 긍정적이나 밸류에이션과 예측 정확성은 추가 검증이 필요하다고 봄. 사업 개요: 로봇·AI 기반 창고 자동화 소프트웨어/하드웨어 기업으로, Walmart·Target·FedEx·TJX 등 대형 고객을 확보. 시장 규모: 글로벌 창고 TAM 약 2,800억 달러(인건비 2,300억, 자동화 장비 560억, 연 13% 성장 예상), 창고 자동화율은 약 5%에 불과. 성장 전망: 2021~2025년 연평균 99%(또는 93%) 매출 성장, 2025년 매출 약 9.27억 달러(2021년 대비 약 26배). 현재 백로그 7,000만 달러, 1.7억 달러 파이프라인 언급. 밸류에이션: 2021년 EV/매출 약 46배로 비싸지만, 2025년 기준 FCF 수익률 5.3%, EBITDA 11.9배, 매출 약 3배로 매력적이라는 계산. 발표자는 15배 매출 가정 시 현 시점 대비 약 5배 수익(IRR 약 37.5%) 가능성을 제시. 리스크: 2021~2024년 약 3억 달러 현금 소진 예상(보유 현금 5.07억 달러로 당장 문제는 낮음), 매출총이익률 급증 가정의 근거 불확실, 로봇서비스(RaaS) 수익 모델 전환은 5년 이후. 경쟁사 존재 여부, 경영진 이력, 기술 복제 가능성 추가 조사 필요. 출연자 전망: 발표자는 장기적으로 매력적이나 예측의 정확성은 미지수라는 입장. 특정 자산 단기 방향 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the channel today we are going to be covering our aac stock which will be taking berkshire grey public via spec merger chamath pali apatiel was the lead pipe investor pouring 165 million into the transaction as we can see by his announcement on twitter this company has some really high growth expectations they're predicting a 99 compound annual growth rate up to 2025 which is over a 25 x in revenue from today quite remarkable and makes you wonder can any stock be overvalued with a 99 compound annual growth rate over five years as you would expect though on the announcement the stock our aac has jumped somewhat only by around 20 to 30 making it slightly more expensive than originally calculated but that's fine because as always we're going to do some number crunching ourselves and see what kind of value exists within this deal today we're going to jump into chamath's investment thesis we're also going to look at the investor presentation that berkshire published and do a little bit of research on the market itself see what the opportunity is but firstly let's just listen to this very short clip explaining what berkshire grey is and does the fundamental truth is that the world is getting smaller more interconnected accelerated and complex the demand to meet consumer expectations to get what they want when they want it faster and cheaper is ever increasing it's time to radically change the essential way we do business at berkshire gray we take a holistic view to complex problems innovate with intention then ground it with smart pragmatism the result real solutions that deliver value today we help customers compete and grow with intelligent robotic systems that automate tasks never before performed by machines in commercial settings through leading-edge technologies in artificial intelligence computer vision machine learning novel sensing and customized robotics berkshire gray solutions are revolutionizing e-commerce fulfillment retail replenishment and logistics and this is only the beginning customer focused and dogged in our pursuit for ever greater adaptability precision and speed our game-changing solutions are a fundamental engine of change that moves you forward okay so that tells us fundamentally what berkshire grey does they are a robotics and ai business offering software that helps customers particularly in retail automate their warehouse operations most notably they have secured high profile customers such as walmart target fedex and tjx which says something about the company even though it's in its early stages let's jump into chamath's investment thesis and see if we can make sense of the investment case so in summary chamath feels the landscape for automation in the back end of retail and some other areas is rapidly changing and demand for automated solutions is becoming greater than ever this is driven mainly by consumer demands for faster cheaper and better with free shipping and next day delivery becoming the standard brick and mortar retailers are definitely feeling the pressure and need viable solutions the market itself is huge with global warehouse total addressable market reaching 280 billion dollars annually with that only five percent of warehouses are currently automated meaning the space to fill is also enormous the current supply chain operations are highly inefficient and no longer sustainable with the three pressures that he mentions below bearing down on the market those are labour availability increasing customer demands and increasing competitive landscape in his qualitative analysis here chamath breaks down their competitive edge saying berkshire gray combined ai with patented hardware meaning they are a completely unique product offering because no one else can steal their patent they combine their robots with berkshire software that helps customers automate tasks with ease their products are functional and ready to implement immediately meaning they provide an immediate impact to the customers which they serve in respect of increasing productivity in a more efficient way and and therefore accelerating revenues and reducing costs so they are becoming a very important asset for a company to deploy berkshire gray also allows the rest of the pack to catch up with the likes of amazon and compete in terms of robotic infrastructure meaning they are a desirable business for a wide market to utilize here we see in the numbers how efficient the utilization of robotics actually is you've got 70 reduction in labor cost through robot picking and throughput of one berkshire grow solution is equal to they have eight manual pickers and hundreds of case handlers one berkshire gray solution will likely mean a couple suite of products rather than one hardware product but still that's very impressive and makes it seem like a no-brainer given that the upfront cost actually makes sense we don't actually get an idea of how much their products do cost which is one thing i'll probably look into myself but you look at the customers that they're targeting you know these customers do have deep pockets and we'll touch on that again in a moment five core verticals which just means the five areas they are targeting for growth and penetration and you can see here it's retail e-commerce grocery parcel and 3pl which they're all different verticals in the sense that they will have different demands you know grocery versus general password or retail is maybe one to point out but i can see all of the links and and see how they integrate together at the top what speaks volumes in my opinion is the profile of customer they've already been able to attract like we just said and they're essentially still in their venture or infancy stage so to be able to have contracts with the likes of walmart target fedex and tjx makes you wonder they really could be the best choice in this field and also you factor in these are customers that have very deep pockets like i said and they will prioritize quality over cost so this may be telling us something about berkshire great they may be the best option out there for these customers apparently there is a visible pipeline of 1.7 billion dollars from these current blue chip anchor customers and some new customers which is a real positive in my opinion especially if it's accurate that one assumption could make the stock good value today now the quantitative part which doesn't mean much to us now but let's just scan over um 95 compound annual growth rate expected for 2021 to 2025 which equals a 26x in sales which is fantastic some visibility in these estimates in that they have 70 million in current backlog so 85 of 2021 expected revenue and 40 of 2022 expected revenue is already held in backlog so that gives us some visibility we saw a similar thing with proterra which is one of the reasons why i actually invested in proterra because of that backlog this is similar in that sense in that there are 30 million already 70 million would get them to 100 million although that revenue would be spread across two years so as for the current valuations here are the current ones and you can see i've i've put it down us versus chamath we're not actually far off or a long way off where chamath and some of the other early investors got in which is actually refreshing to see as you can see it looks really expensive currently being 46 times 2021 ev to sales but that growth rate that we have here that 93 compound annual growth rate over five years just eats at that multiple we pay today and brings it down to a more attractive value in 2025 you've got a 5.3 free cash flow yield on the 2025 expected 11.9 times ebitda and then almost three times sales which makes it seems more attractive you know chamath didn't get that much better that being said 93 compound annual growth rate here on the top line revenue will be the upwards end of what is achievable they won't be low balling this here i should also point out the gross profit i just flick over actually to their investor presentation financial model they gave us i should point out gross profit scales up quite a lot in their projections which i always get a little bit cautious of especially given that their projections told us most of their five-year growth was coming from their current products and robotics as a service which we'll get to in a moment would be introduced later usually you see it move up a bit but this is going from single digits to nearly 48 and this usually implies that they benefit from economies of scout in a big way however it's one of those things that you know it's so recognizable that i'd be surprised if there wasn't a valid explanation for it and i'll dig for that explanation and let you all know one thing i probably should mention they gave us the shares outstanding for pro forma the transaction all shares are going to be set at 10 per share or when the transaction happened so from that we can get an equity value and then they have no debt whatsoever and then 507 million of cash which gives us our enterprise value today and as you can see it's only about 500 million more than what the original investors paid so you can see just by the numbers there's a lot of potential in this company obviously given the numbers that it's putting up the growth that it's putting up i also like the fact that we're getting in near the same levels as the initial investors so they've got skin in the game exactly the same time as us you don't see that often like i said let's now browse through the investor deck and see what the opportunity is here so as you guys know i like to look at the numbers but really i like to get a sense of the story of the business as well and here we have somewhat of a mission statement given from berkshire gray that's quite impactful we help retail e-commerce grocery and package handling companies transform to compete grow and win key word here being disruption and they hint to the market which is 280 billion dollars so even with a one percent capture it would make it a great investment here is revolutions investment thesis which is actually the spat company that merged with berkshire gray and is taking it public they lead on a little bit further as to what chamath was saying so they added a little bit more detail pause if you'd like to read it all but it's pretty much what we've covered one thing i will say though that stands out that we didn't cover in their business model is they're looking to move to a more asset-like business model and turn more to recurring revenues and reoccurring revenue streams with robotics as a service and they do give some guidance as to when this will be introduced and actually they don't put much of it within the next five years so maybe not something to think about now but if you're looking beyond five years with this company definitely an attractive prospect now in terms of leadership here it is i'll be honest i don't know much about these guys actually i don't know these guys from a hole in the wall and don't expect you to do so either so i'll be doing some digging and find what i can if you do know anything about tom wagner steve johnson or mark fiddler let me know here's the market opportunity and how they break it down 280 billion total tan which we covered 230 billion of that is total annual warehouse labor spend and then 56 billion on automated material handling equipment and that's expected to grow at 13 per year so a little bit of a tailwind there on that 56 billion dollar tam and the migration in general to robotics and automation or the need for migration has picked up some tailwinds as shown on the right hand side here we've covered five percent of warehouses are currently automated which is a small number emerging and rapidly growing e-commerce retail and logistics industries and i think the biggest thing here really is just demand and need for retailers or warehouses to cut costs down and make it a more efficient process that's really going to drive the change here quite notably they point out that amazon have spent 180 billion on r d and 93 billion on capex related to robotics meaning they've set the pace and it's only natural that some of berkshire gray's potential customers ramp up that spend to adapt and compete but it gives us an idea of if someone like amazon who's pretty much a pioneer in the retail or e-commerce space is spending that much on it then it's going to be something that others follow suit with as for their business model if you haven't actually grasped it yet they develop systems that use artificial intelligence mobile robots and scanning gripping and sensing technology to actually pick orders and then speed those items through the distribution centers so they're more like robotics to use for just picking up items and moving them through the process and a little bit more about this 1.7 billion pipeline or this visibility pipeline that they see and this is important because if they really do have this pipeline and it is accurate then this takes them beyond even what they were estimating in their projections and the main anchorage in it i guess and they've called it anchor customers these customers here so the walmart targets fedex and tjx and here they talk a little bit about their capex how many distribution centers they have and really how they can provide all of these businesses with the right resources that they need to compete with the likes of an amazon or adapt to the changing environment i haven't quite you know got down to whether this 1.3 billion dollar five-year pipeline that they have whether it's something they've actually managed to negotiate with these customers or it's just something that they've plotted out and said we could squeeze this out of them over a five-year period haven't been able to actually get to the bottom of that yet but i will look into that because it's a very important component of the valuation okay so back to the numbers we've just covered obviously what what our price would be versus chimath but now let's dig into those revenue figures and try and work out how feasible they actually are as we mentioned they do have 17 million in current backlog so with current revenue being 35 million as mentioned they do have about 70 million dollars in current backlog which hints to the demand for their products and this should get us fairly smoothly to our 2022 expected revenue without too much hassle as they're already at 35 million as for the 927 million in 2025 like we just covered it looks like they feel the likes of walmart target fedex and tjx some of the blue chip customers they have will ramp up their spend and contribute a large part to that 927 million as for new business i didn't see anywhere that disclosed some of their other customers but but we do know they're targeting five different verticals which will allow for a very large pool of customers if you think back to the industries that they're going to be tapping into another thing to always check with these projections is how much cash are they likely to burn so here we're going to have three or four years of cash burn or losing money so we've got to check that do they have enough cash on hand or are they going to have to be raising money again to actually get to profitability or at least turn into a company that has self-sustaining cash flows and can reinvest their cash flows so they have 507 million in cash on hand from this transaction as well as some that they had already so it doesn't look like a huge worry for now looks like the cash burn will be anywhere from 260 to 360.
so let's say 300 million they'll burn in the next three years so that doesn't concern me too much and here i've done a quick calculation to estimate our likely investment return if we were to buy today and they pull off these projections so with an expected 15 time sales in 2025 just taking that number and i've gone with 15 time sales and the logic there comes with the fact that year-over-year revenue growth is over 100 and then earnings growth during that period is over 350 in the final year so 15 times that sales would actually be super cheap but you never know if interest rates rise and continue to go up those multiples in the whole of the market and especially the high growth companies will start to come down so going off of that that would equal a 5x return today which more accurately is around a 37.5 irr which is a very high number now this tells you with this number that even if they don't quite hit these numbers here and these projections that they've set themselves but can get close to it you're still going to have a good return so it's quite obvious the numbers are great if you can take management's word that they'll actually achieve it then it could be a great investment the the real question is how accurate are these forecasts and unfortunately it's a little bit of an unknown industry and and not something that i've had great exposure to myself and a couple of things that we didn't cover here in this video that i'd suggest you guys look into if you want to make a serious and accurate judgment on these predictions and invest maybe a large amount competition find out if there is any viable competition even though it's a very new industry with complex products and needs if there isn't any then that definitely tells you something and is a massive positive in my opinion i haven't been able to find much in the way of competition so far find out the history of management and success and failures are obviously a big thing if you can look into that find out the margin potential of the industry itself high margins attract competition and usually powerful competition one hint was the likes of amazon purchasing a robotics company rather than producing their own so they've decided to just acquire a company and rather than go about it in their own way maybe because it didn't seem viable when the margins weren't great for them themselves find out more about robotics and ai try to understand how easy it is to replicate their business model that's going to be a big thing and then i'll be looking into all of these as well as producing a rough valuation model that's a little bit more sophisticated than this like we usually do on berkshire gray hopefully i will post a link either on the membership or community tab or upload it as a video so you can all see that as well hope you enjoyed watching this one does look very intriguing let me know if you have any inside or helpful info into berkshire grey or just your thoughts in general leave a like if you enjoyed the video this really helps out the video and the channel in a big way subscribe if you haven't already and put the notification bell on so you know when the next deep dive is up and hopefully that will be tomorrow thank you for watching good luck with all your investments
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