저자: FindingAlpha채널진행자 · 외국인
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바이두(BIDU)는 2021년 3월 급락 후 저평가 구간이며, 광고 외 매출과 AI 사업 성장으로 장기 가치 상승 여지가 있다는 분석이다. 최근 40% 하락의 주원인은 미국 외국기업책임법(HFCAA) 등 감사 규제 우려이나, 진행자는 과도한 공포로 보고 있다. 사업 구조: 광고 매출 약 62%, 아이치이 스트리밍 약 27%, AI 사업(듀얼OS, 아폴로 자율주행, 바이두 클라우드, 쿤룬 칩)이 성장 동력으로 제시됨. 시장 성장률 근거: 디지털 음성비서 시장 2020~2024년 두 배 성장 전망, 자율주행 AI 시장 CAGR 약 40%(2027년까지), AI 클라우드 CAGR 약 20%, 아시아 AI 시장 CAGR 약 42%. 밸류에이션: FCF 수익률 4.2%, PER 약 20배. 보수적 매출 성장률 10%, 터미널 FCF 수익률 5%, 영구성장률 3% 가정 시 2025년 기업가치 약 1300억 달러, 목표주가 375달러, 적정가치 206달러로 제시. 낙관 시나리오(성장률 15%)에서는 적정가치 246달러. 진행자는 아직 매수하지 않았으며 추가 분석 후 판단하겠다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hi and welcome back to another video in this video we're going to be analyzing baidu ticker symbol bidu they are a chinese tech giant that owns an ecosystem full of products and services that include but are not limited to china's number one search engine a mapping service similar to google maps a chinese encyclopedia an entertainment and streaming service and an autonomous driving technology and ai intellectual property unit of the business as you may be able to tell from their product portfolio or at least what i've just mentioned the majority of their revenue comes from advertising on their various platforms that they have or their mobile ecosystem they call this marketing services and it makes up 62 percent of their revenue their entertainment and streaming service is a company called iqe i hope i pronounced that right but it's similar in nature to a netflix and boasts over 479 million monthly active users this segment of the business makes up around 27 percent of baidu's revenue but they are in the running to become china's leading air tech and autonomous vehicle company which would launch the business into a completely new dimension away from its legacy products baidu have been investing lots of time and energy and money into building out their ai segment of the business which includes three core products we've got baidu's dua os which is a virtual voice assistant that uses ai to handle an action voice query similar to an alexa or something like that but i do work with over 300 partners to install various smart devices and household products such as phones watches and speakers with this ai technology additionally and most notably to be honest with you uh baidu's apollo project which is their autonomous driving platform that supports the production of self-driving vehicles including self-valet parking and things like that through apollo they'd already launched china's first autonomous shuttle bus which is quite an impressive achievement and they are pretty much sponsored by the chinese government as the designated ai and autonomous driving provider to improve traffic flow air pollution and road hazards across china and lastly baidu cloud which is focused on delivering cloud-based ai solutions to commercial customers and individuals by developing cloud infrastructure and products to help automate all areas of their business to improve productivity and operational efficiency here on their website they use the example of call centers and getting rid of basically all of the team and the higher cost of a call center and automating it through the use of voice technology and they have other ai endeavors uh that are more in the infancy stages than these three areas here such as their ai chips which is baidu kunlun that makes chips for their own ai deep learning and computing needs but no doubt will scale to partner with other products and third-party vendors in the future they manage to actually raise 2 billion us dollars under the radar very recently to invest in this segment of the business so it's definitely an area of growth for baidu into the future and by these financials have been uh stagnating for a number of quarters or had been should i say causing the stock to fall quite drastically over the two-year period as we can see is a massive dip here but recently the stock has been in favor mainly due to their efforts in the new ai segment of the business but also the visibility and growth from their most recent quarter the growth wasn't huge but it gave investors at least the indication as to what they're looking for with baidu which is this new segment of the business the ai segment of the business and you could go as far to say the recreation of the business into a new dimension and some thought the valuation have got too rich with the stock shooting up uh to over 320 at its high but the stock has sold off aggressively over the past month or so seemingly due to concerns around uh chinese companies being delisted from u.s exchanges if rules cannot be complied with uh with the sec other rumors had arisen around hedge funds having to flog huge volumes of stock in in a short period too which could be a cause but the main cause is quite unclear and in most cases it will probably be unjustified after all we are looking at a 40 drop here in just a month and so in this video we are going to be analyzing the recent sell-off of baidu and if it means we shouldn't invest or what it does mean really we'll look at the potential for growth based off of what we know about their current product offering we're not going to be too specific on that because it's going to be hard to put a number on it but we're going to get an idea of how different scenarios may create value out of the stock today and then lastly we'll assess that valuation uh plug estimates into my model and see if baidu stock is currently at a fair price to buy today so firstly if we explore why the stock had been selling off and if we should be concerned at all and it's been selling off for about a month as we saw but the biggest drop was on the 25th last week the stock actually managed to fall 13 and a half percent in one day of trading which is a really big drop and the likely proximate cause was worry not about the business or its operations but around the new policies that are being introduced by the us and china's oversight of big tech companies that will aim to regulate the use of personal data in my opinion this doesn't warrant a 40 drop in the stock uh in a short period of time now it may have been overcooked slightly in the valuation so we do have to consider that but i feel this is more noise at the moment than anything else and here's why so the new policy that will be introduced is under the holding foreign companies accountable act that was established by the trump administration and essentially means that foreign companies could potentially be delisted from the american exchanges if they do not comply with the us or sec auditing standards for three consecutive years and it was introduced after the luck in coffee scandal in general lack of compliance and transparency among chinese companies listed in the us and it aims to reduce the risk of defrauding investors like we saw in the luck and coffee scandal and personally i i think companies that we follow and even baidu will be able to comply with these rules it's unclear what they would be hiding or you know even need to hide so i don't see it as much of an issue here even the ceo has gone on bloomberg recently to say that he doesn't see it as much of an issue but he understands why people you know may have an opinion on it and plus we don't even know if baidu are in the firing line in terms of meeting auditing requirements last time when the sec come out and said about various different chinese companies that were not disclosing what they wanted to see it wasn't any of these big tech companies it was some smaller chinese telecom companies so there's no need to be too worried at the moment in my opinion of course if you're really concerned about this but love the company then just buy the hong kong exchange security we touch on the potential for growth for but i do i really just want to focus on their non-ad revenue portion of the business for now uh which is the growing portion look at the tailwinds they will get from the ai segment of the business and this part of the business is growing very fast and even the ceo said they expect that in not too long a period it will become the largest part of the business i believe advertising revenue accounts for about 70 of overall revenues non-advertising revenue has clearly increasing as we just touched on at what point do you see non-advertising revenue overtaking advertising revenue and if so what time frame yeah it will happen i i cannot see you know accurately which year but i think the trend is quite clear for us it's it's it's like a monopoly we just started with an uh you know online marketing bins but uh as a large platform you know people hundreds of millions of people come to baidu every day right besides showing them ads there are lots of things we can do with them we can help them we can charge membership fees we can do live streaming we can offer online games we can have transactions e-commerce there are lots of ways to to really monetize the the traffic we we just got started on that what i will say though is by these legacy products still have a lot of room to grow especially given they provide an ecosystem for millions of users daily and can do better to monetize those users in my opinion you also throw into this that china currently has only 700 million plus internet users which is yes double the total u.s population but it's only half the chinese population so there's only 50 internet or around 50 internet penetration in that country and this leaves a lot of room for growth in their core segments of the business which provide a gateway into internet usage for everyone it's so touching on the ai business though and its growth we need to look at the growth in total addressable market and demand for these products and services and how long it should take them to come into fruition and actually become a mass market product firstly if we look at the digital voice assistant part of the business which is the uh duro s this is a segment of the business that is is pretty much not i wouldn't say going to mass market now but it's already uh fully operational and going by statista the number of digital voice assistants was forecasted to double from 2020 to 2024 leading to 8.4 billion units sold so you've got double in less than four years a really high growth rate and this of course complements uh this segment of the business for biden that is installing uh on millions of of smart devices and partners with hundreds of businesses and customers so a very strong tailwind for that portion of the business especially if it can be a key player for china and asia and then if we touch on the auto or the ai auto part of the business which is the apollo project that they're working on we can see that that market is set to expand rapidly as well over a longer period so here in this business wire estimate they're forecasting out to 2027 and they're estimating a compound annual growth rate for the industry of 40 which is just huge and this is the automotive ai market so this is with the technology the process that goes behind the cars not actually the manufacturing so i'm not talking about the oems here this is just the portion of the business or the portion of the industry sorry that baidu will be operating in it it's more the intellectual property part of autonomous driving which is more asset-like and and still is going to be a really high growth industry probably a better place to be than the actual manufacturing of the cars if you ask me and then just lastly relating to the baidu cloud portion of the business so ai cloud is expected to grow around a 20 compound annual growth rate for the next sort of five to six years up until 2026.
obviously baidu cloud you know isn't anywhere near being the biggest player in this industry as we can see here we all know these big names like aws microsoft uh google ibm in china even you know the dominators of this market are the likes of alibaba with baba cloud and and 10 cent as well but baidu are up there and and they're doing something that's a little bit more niche than just these cloud computing companies they're trying to develop uh the ai supercomputing capabilities and infrastructure that sits behind it so they could take a good grab of this market share of course we know cloud computing or cloud service is going to be a huge market into the future and just to round it off in general for the artificial intelligence business here i've got a compound annual growth estimator that was done a little while back now but to do with the asia pacific ai market and how quickly it's set to grow from 2020 to 2027 as you can see here the estimates are that it will grow at a compound annual rate of 42 over the next seven years which is quite astounding makes a lot of sense to me we've seen how quickly it's grown in north america and in europe and it's set to grow even further on from here asia is a little bit more underdeveloped in terms of how many people are actually and how many businesses are actually exposed to these resources that the likes of baidu offers through their products so i can see this growth rate coming into fruition now what am i showing you here this is all very vague obviously i'm just showing you you know market data or or tam data in terms of how much it's going to expand over the period but now i want to use this in our valuation we've looked at almost 20 percent of baidu's business is in this fast-growing sector and and they're backed by the government in a lot of these cases and they have some impressive products so we're going to take this into our valuation and see that based off the price now in terms of how much the stock has dropped what sort of growth rate i do would need to see for it to be a good investment from here okay so lastly i'll show you what all of this means for baidu's valuation after the recent sell-off and then also factoring in all of the products that they have and the potential growth that they should see off of those products being introduced over the next sort of three to four years now and what this means for baylor's current valuation is a 4.2 free cash flow yield which is about as good as you're gonna get especially in this market and especially with a company that has some growth potential when medium to long term bond yields are lower than one percent or around one and a half percent a four point two percent trailing twelve month yield on an investment is a very attractive price for all of you who are more familiar with pe that's a 20 times pe which is a good price to be getting into a stock definitely in this market and definitely with a company that has some growth potential now you can see their historical results here over the past sort of three to four years they haven't been amazing the four-year average growth rate here has been 13.2 which isn't huge but the majority of this revenue was coming from their legacy portion of the business which we know is stagnating slightly now what we're worried about the future so let's look at what i've done here uh in terms of the next five years for baidu so i've gone with a really conservative just for demonstration at the moment 10 growth rate in revenue over the next five years and this is at a time when the total addressable market or tam growth rate for baidu is expected to grow around 35 percent so this would probably tell you that baidu are not going to be a winner in their total addressable market but they are going to take par all right so they're not going to die out and they're going to take part i don't think this will probably play out i think that they're a leader especially in the ai portion of their business and the autonomous driving i mean they're backed by the government which is going to help as well and what really puts this growth rate this 10 growth rate into perspective because some people might think that 10 is not bad growth rate it's not that conservative well the growth rate of the chinese economy that's going to underlie this business is eight to nine percent anyway so you know it'd be the equivalent to a u.s company or forecasting a u.s company to grow at three and a half to four percent for the next five years so just a little bit above the growth rate of the economy that would be seen as conservative especially for a tech company that has all of these fast growing products as part of its portfolio now i've done anything with margins i've pretty much kept them all as before and then for my terminal values i've gone again with a conservative what i would call conservative free cash flow yield as the multiple of five percent which is a good investment in any market so here we're saying that you know the market's not going to get more excited about baidu as an investment they're actually going to get bearish you know versus now even though this is sort of the period 2024 2025 when their ai portion of the business should really take over and be the biggest part of the business and approach the steepest point in its growth curve but we're saying that the market will apply five percent free cash flow yield which is a good investment even in a bearish environment i've also gone with a terminal value perpetual growth rate as well growth method which is a three percent uh perpetual growth rate and then we're going to average out those two terminal values there and that gives us 130 billion dollars for the company as an enterprise value in 2025 and that's almost a 2x in just five years to a share price we're putting a target price on it of 375 and you can see look that that price that you're paying today is gradually going down as well so you'd be paying 13 times 2025 earnings just based off of this quite conservative growth estimate going into the future and show you what that presents us as our intrinsic value well we've got 206 dollars per share as the intrinsic value of fair value to buy baidu stock today based off of these forecasts here that you can see and a 15 required rate of return so essentially it'd be telling us that if we bought the stock today let these projections play out and the terminal value is correct we would get above a 15 rate of return on this investment over five years which is very attractive now if we get a little bit more bullish on what baidu can do in over the next five years and we think that non-ad revenue portion of the business is really going to grow and grow a little bit closer to the total addressable market that they're entering into now we're still not going overboard here this is you know 15 as part of a 35 percent tam so still above half the growth rate and only just above the economic growth of the country that they're in then this means we've got a 25 undervalued stock in baidu and that the fair value today is 246 dollars per share and what i'm trying to show you here is off of the latest sell-off that 40 or 40 plus drop you know there's really been some value creation in the stock now so we've got a good margin of safety especially if you're bullish on what baidu can do into the future here i've just applied a 10 and 15 growth rate and you can see the stock looks very much undervalued i'll just show you just to finish off you know if we start getting more and more bullish as you get more and more bullish this company starts to look more and more undervalued so really it's up to you if you understand baidu and the businesses that it has then you can make a fair judgment you know based off of that how much you think the stock is undervalued today but hopefully i've just demonstrated to you that this stock now has some potential after the 40 drop and i'll be transparent with you i haven't bought uh any baidu stock as of yet i'm still going to wrap my head around the ai portion of the business take a deeper look into the legacy portions as well and see if i can come up with a more definitive growth rate i will say that i think they can do better than a 10 growth rate over the next five years which means that you know by my accounts it will be undervalued but i'm just going to do a little bit more work on baidu and i'll let you know how i get on and if i make any purchases as always this valuation model and an irr for buyer do stop will be available on the patreon or discord if you want to support the channel go and check that out and you can do some editing on this valuation model and see if you think baidu is a good price today if you enjoyed the video leave a like comment let me know what you think of baidu in the comments below subscribe to the channel if you're new and haven't already i'll see you in the next video good luck with all of your investments
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