저자: FindingAlpha진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 4분기 실적은 매출 강세로 긍정적이나 수익성 지표는 혼재. 주가는 실적 발표 후 급락 후 일부 회복. 실적 요약: 2020년 4분기 매출 3억 2,200만 달러(전년 대비 40%↑), 2020년 연간 매출 11억 달러(47%↑). 2021년 1분기 매출 성장률 가이던스 45%. 주식보상비용 제외 시 4분기 영업이익률 28.7%, 연간 약 9% 영업이익 수준. 매출총이익률 4분기 84%, 연간 81%. 투자 논리: 장기 비전은 단기 이익이 아닌 고객 필요 충족과 지속적 개선. 캐시 우드의 발언을 인용하며 장기 투자 관점 강조. 정부 부문이 매출의 61%를 차지하나 상업 부문 확대 기대. 2025년 매출 40억 달러 가이던스를 언급. 밸류에이션: 5~10년 DCF 모델로 주당 약 22달러(시총 약 350억 달러)를 산출했고, 성장률 시나리오(연 40%→25%)와 EBIT 멀티플(30배~35배) 가정에 따라 공정가치 약 29~33.5달러로 제시. 현재 주가(약 29달러)가 공정가치 부근이라고 평가. 리스크: 높은 밸류에이션 프리미엄, 성장 둔화 가능성, 정부 매출 집중, 상업 부문 성장 지연, 실적 발표 후 변동성. 진행자는 제한적 비중의 장기 보유 의견을 밝힘. 결론: 실적은 혼재이나 장기적으로 보유 가치가 있다는 입장. 단, 자동 DCF 모델의 한계를 인정하며 맹신하지 말 것을 당부.
다듬은 글
so last week palantir reported q4 earnings and full year 2020 results we've already covered palantir on this channel and as most of you will know i do own palantir stock the results were not bad in my humble opinion however i would say they were mixed definitely one positive for me was top line revenue at 322 million for q4 alone which equaled growth of over 40 percent year-over-year now it isn't a huge surprise the stock sold off considering it had a great run-up to around 38 dollars per share and the valuation was becoming a little bit steep in my opinion also a lot of people have very high expectations for palantir and the fact they were unable to pull through on the bottom line numbers obviously made some investors or analysts nervy now some investors and analysts were concerned with the commercial segment growth and a reliance on big ticket contracts too which in my opinion is nothing that we didn't know already the drop was around 34 but it has since marched back up to 29 per share which is around a 24 drop from the high just for disclosure like i said i do own palantir stock already not a huge amount but i am bullish on the company's future and i will do my absolute best to still conduct an unbiased review of the facts a couple of things that i want to talk about in this update so firstly i want to review the full year 2020 results and talk about why they are better than most people or analysts may think secondly the investment thesis or ball case for this company not the short-term outlook but the long-term destination for palantir we'll also listen to what kathy wood had to say i'll just drop in a short clip because she really hits the nail on the head about what palantir investors should be looking at lastly i want to cover their brief guidance they gave for the next five years and it's good that they did give us that guidance whether it be accurate or not it's good to see how they're thinking and we'll revisit my valuation very quickly just to check if we're still on track if you would like to see a deep dive into palantir and all of its products and what it offers and a full valuation of the stock you can watch my previous video on palantir from a few months ago not much has changed from that period apart from the stock price okay so the q4 results they were obviously impressive from a revenue perspective although i do feel some people still have unreasonable expectations of how quickly a company can grow over a sustained period 30 to 40 percent over a 5-10 year period or longer is a very powerful thing you need to remember that so revenue got to 1.1 billion for the full year up 47 year-over-year which is a big number and then the quarter alone was up 40 over year as we just spoke about some new contracts with some big names as well pg e rio tinto us army uh the british nhs as well and they've also given some guidance for q1 2021 revenue growth to be 45 year-over-year which again would be another massive achievement so the bottom line numbers which were the disappointment for most investors from what i could gather were actually much better than they look at first glance so if we back out a lot of the stock based compensation or associated stock-based compensation expense that were from the public listing and stock-based comp throughout the year they actually achieved as 28.7 operating margin and you could even take it a step further and back out the associated taxes paid on these compensation costs so and that would look even better and on a full year basis they made a nine percent operating profit if we back those stock based compensations out now that's not to say that we will not see any stock-based comp going forward for palantir but it's very unlikely we will see compensation of this size given the majority of the cost was associated with the direct listing because insiders are looking to cash out their options but that compensation ratio should decline as the business matures it's probably a better way to put it rather than just saying it's a complete one-off cost that will go away forever secondly gross margins were higher than ever the cost of revenue has improved with scale and this is likely due to the increased spend of the current customers that they have so it's a lower cost of acquisition and with q4 gross profit reaching 84 and full year reaching 81 you know that's a fantastic margin that will leave lots of room for profit and cash flow on the bottom line into the future as you know i like businesses with high gross margins for this reason and it makes the price to sales valuation seem more reasonable when you have a business that has the potential to reach a 30 or more operating margin in the near future okay now i want to come away from the near-term distractions or financials for this company as it only tells us some of what we need to know as long-term investors let's cover the potential investment thesis just recap that for this company and then listen to a short clip of kathy wood very recently and what she had to say because like i said it pretty much hits the nail on the head in terms of how you should be thinking about a company like palantir let me ask you about palantir which we just found out you you've added to can you tell our viewers why you added rather significantly to your stake in palantir yes they reported yesterday and the stock was uh down on the report um it's interesting to listen to the ceo um he was speaking our language he he essentially said to investors you know we are playing in a massive space here and we're going to invest aggressively now in order to capitalize on the exponential changes that are taking place here so if you are short-term in your focus you probably don't want to spend too much time investing in palantir so that's music to our ears because and we do believe more and more companies are going to start behaving in this way instead of catering to short-term uh time horizons uh and short-term short we would say in some cases short-sighted shareholders who are much more interested in profits now dividends now share repurchases now then they are in a company investing aggressively for going short-term profitability in order to really to catch some very big waves out there uh so i'm astonished their revenues are still 61 government but i've learned and i think most people in the innovation space have learned over time that some of the most important innovations uh in our lifetimes have started in the government especially in the in the defense sector and in the intelligence sector so we think in many ways and they won't talk about how uh but they're certainly garnering a lot of business which tells us that they are and investing in the future in in ways that companies are going to need uh especially as we're competing against china we have not been spending enough in innovation and so you know palantir's attitude is refreshing it's exactly how uh we invest we want our companies to invest aggressively we don't want profits now we want them to invest aggressively because we're moving into many winner take most markets okay so a few points just leading on from what kathy woods said we need to think about the destination of this business not its near-term margins and growth year over year so let's refresh our memory on palantir's aim or long-term vision first to be the most important software business in the world not the biggest not the most profitable but the most important to its customers and their customers being the world at least in this scenario my belief is the majority of palantirs potential customers don't actually know they need the solutions or could adopt the solutions that palantir can offer them yet and they will likely be made aware as as transformations in the world and business accelerate into the future most of the long-term success stories in business are not fueled by financial targets definitely not near-term financial targets but by exceeding customer needs and expectations on a consistent basis to an extent that customers always return as there's a relentless focus on improving their experience and amazon apple costco are all very good examples of this playing out and second is to create products services and solutions for the world five years before they think that they need them another powerful vision that is long-term focused and revolves around relentless improvement rather than short-term margin expectations or short-term growth expectations they've shown that they can do this thus far but if they continue to do it in the next period of rapid accelerated technological change then the results will definitely speak for themselves keeping both of these visions in mind it's important to factor them in and know that palantir's growth or progress isn't always going to be linear they want it to be consistent in the sense that over a 5-10 year period you will see visible progress but it's not always going to be linear because they're not prioritizing those near-term targets those near-term financial targets they're thinking more about a long-term vision that will take the company to a different destination okay a couple other points to consider when trying to think about palantir as a long-term play so what separates this from seemingly similar speculative bets in my opinion is a it has very much proven products high customer retention and a clear path to profitability with the excellent gross margins that they've put on display his total addressable market is still in the infancy stages and has the potential to be a much bigger space than it already is as businesses needs and demands switched to a more sophisticated technology data ai based solutions the government organization segment will dominate for a while and and that's to be expected i wouldn't get nervy about that as their needs are always further ahead than the commercial outfits that are out there also more businesses than ever are entering the 500 million dollar threshold that palantir set for their target customers in terms of yearly revenue this means that again the commercial segment will take time to build out but over time it will become a larger part of the business as the market starts to expand and lastly palantir's presence and loud entrance into the public markets has woken businesses to realizing the potential for more advanced data solutions that it can provide them leading to a positive and cost efficient network effect finally let's revisit the evaluation we did on palantir or i did on palantir i've amended it slightly to show you some scenarios now just to be clear palantir is not going to seem cheap to anyone and shouldn't for that matter it's priced at a big premium and carries expectations for a long sustained growth period but i'll tell you i have it in my portfolio as a small bet which i feel has the potential to outperform my cost basis wasn't very low and i didn't manage to get in early around say the 10 to 18 mark but i'm okay with holding this company for a long period of time and will welcome another 50 drop to buy even more so should any bad news arise i actually would be quite happy the story of product excellence made me feel this business has the potential to grow for a very long time considering the points we covered earlier in this video i have complete faith the business is not a risk of capitulating so my only risk is under performance on the stock and with all that being said a five to ten year dcf valuation doesn't do it complete justice but it's a useful tool to look at as we need some kind of financial output or model to measure palantir's potential value now palantir or alex carp the ceo gave five-year guidance that they should reach 4 billion in revenue or around over 4 billion in 2025 meaning they will grow at above a 30 rate constantly for the next five years which seems more than possible given last year and this year's results and their guidance they're giving for the first quarter of next year so if we use that guidance for the next five years and then just pull forward another extended period of growth that i think that they could achieve that gets us to around 14 billion of revenue in 2030 and manages to get 30 margin by 2025 and then scale it up a little bit further into the future and so with that we get a fair value of 22 per share today or 35 billion as a market cap however i think they're playing down their guidance to an extent similarly they gave guidance that revenue would be up 40 in 2020 and then they beat by seven percentage points it could be a coincidence this isn't the safest assumption to to make you know i will say that but from all the research i've done on the company i think they can average 35 to 40 for at least the next three to five years and like i said palantir's long runway for growth is going to be long and as a number of available customers will grow consistently over the next decade or more and they will continue to be a dominant force in this space so my scenario is this they average 40 for the next three years let's say i mean they're already given guidance for 2021 that q1 is going to be around 47 growth so i don't see that dropping for no reason in the quarters or years after that maybe as we get to this period growth will slow and that's what i've put in gets to 35 then to 30 then to 25 towards the end of the period and this gets palantir to around 18 and a half billion in revenue which is large but doesn't make them seem like a behemoth by any means and this is what i mean by sometimes getting caught up in the year-over-year growth rate really with certain businesses it's beneficial to think about what the likely destination is for this business in 10 years time or even more in some cases and here i think 18 billion which is around a 10 capture of their current addressable market is a fair judgment considering they seem to be far and away the best data analytics company to deploy for their target customer base i don't even think alternatives are close from what i can tell at the moment meaning they should quickly eat market share whilst that market continues to expand and it will be a powerful combination to have so this actually gets us to a fair price of 29 per share depending on your multiple so if i put in a 35 times multiple actually it gets us to 33 and a half dollars per share so if i said that palantir always going to have a multiple that matches the software system and application industry as well as the us market and then a similar company that's around 10 years or five years ahead of let's say palantir we average those out we get 35 times ebit multiple then the fair value is a lot higher than we are now by around 15 to 20 if we want to go a bit more conservative and say it's going to stick at 30 which is closer to the market average then we've got a buy price or fair price today of 29 per share which matches the current stock price meaning the pallent is around fair value after the recent dip and if you haven't got a position in palantir right now it could be a good time to get in especially if it drops even further it's up to you what multiple you think is more likely or more fair to use a 35 would be a lot more bullish but i can see a software company especially one like palantir if it's still growing in 2030 will be priced at a premium around 35 considering you know the industry as a whole and considering some comparable companies even 29 though if you want to be conservative shows that you could buy a fair price today which is good to see but again though this is just a tool to use to assess value it shouldn't be taken as concrete especially for a business like palantir so don't worry if your cost basis is higher than the current price this is just my take on it and my valuation so in summary you know these are my thoughts on the recent palantir earnings guidance etc and the recent sell-off although i wouldn't be betting the farm on it it still looks like a good long-term hold for me here and that's just about it for this video hope you enjoyed if you did leave a thumbs up subscribe to the channel if you haven't already and i'll see you all in the next video good luck with your investments
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