저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 전쟁이 6개월 넘게 지속되며 승리에서 멀어졌고, 정부 주장(유가 $40~50 하락)은 거짓이라고 주장. 구리 가격은 트럼프 취임 이후 약 60% 상승했고, 금 대비 구리 비율상 구리가 금 수준으로 추가 상승해야 한다고 봄. 니켈·아연·텅스텐·코발트·농산물·에너지 가격도 함께 상승 중이며 자원주는 52주 신고가 경신. 이는 Fed의 인플레이션 2% 복귀 전망과 모순되며, 65개월째 2% 이상 인플레가 지속됨. 금은 4400달러에서 더 오를 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
when oil prices fell. How the hell are we going to get down to two when they're growing up? And you know, I keep hearing presidential, you know, boosters, well, Scott Bessant on the Sunday morning shows confidently saying that when this war with Iran is over, don't worry, oil will be $50 or $40 a barrel.
I mean, this guy is just lying. I mean, that's what everyone in the Trump administration is doing . Apparently they are ordered to lie, and they do so because the entire administration is built on lies. It's one lie after another. One of the false claims is that this war will supposedly end. There is no end in sight to this.
The war with Iran began over 6 months ago. It started at the end of February. Almost 6 and a half months have passed. I think we are further from victory now than when we first dropped the bombs. Copper has risen nearly 60% just since Trump took office. And he has been in office for less than 2 years.
And you have almost a 60% jump in the price of copper. But, you know, despite this movement, copper prices are actually cheap when measured in real money terms. Many people look at the ratio of gold to copper. I'm looking at that too. And there were a lot of people who thought gold would fall to balance that ratio because copper was very low relative to gold.
Some thought gold would fall to meet copper. I think it's the other way around. Copper will rise to meet gold because now if copper returns to its historical average or modern day performance. If gold stayed at 4400 like it is now, and it won't stay at 4400, but let's assume it does, copper would have to rise to over $11 a pound.
This is another 60% increase from the current level, so that copper is not expensive, but simply has a normal price. Because , again, gold is real money. Anything you buy with "funny" money, with Federal Reserve notes, costs more. But this is not because goods are becoming more expensive, but because the currency with which you buy goods is becoming less valuable.
Now, if you use real money to make purchases, if you have gold, then you don't see it. You see prices falling, including copper. Now you can buy copper at a good price. If you buy it with gold, not if you use the government's inferior fiat currency. But copper prices still have a long way to go if we measure them in real money.
Of course, this is a changing benchmark. Gold will not stay at 4400. Gold will rise in price, which means copper will increase significantly in price. But copper is just one metal. The same thing will happen with nickel, zinc, all these industrial metals, tungsten, cobalt—everything will become more expensive.
And it's not just about metals. And not only in energy. These are agricultural products. And look at how these stocks behave. Look at copper company stocks today. I wo n't name them, but look at these stocks hitting 52- week highs. And those that haven't yet are still showing significant growth and will continue to move upwards.
Agricultural companies are also growing. The rapid rise in copper and oil prices is inconsistent with the Fed's position, which still believes that inflation will fall to 2%. Why is that? If inflation hasn't even dropped to 2%. And again, I'm not talking about real inflation, which is the expansion of the money supply.
I mean the CPI that the government likes to refer to so much, right? Consumer prices. But if consumer prices never fell to the 2% growth rate , as the Fed's target. Dude, it's been over 5 years, 65 months of inflation above 2%. But if we couldn't get to two, copper is just a leading indicator of a broader overvaluation of commodities.
Industrial metals such as nickel, zinc, tungsten and cobalt are rising in price along with agricultural commodities and energy markets. Resource stocks reflect this shift, with mining and agricultural stocks consistently testing 52- week highs. This massive increase directly contradicts official statements that inflation will return to the Fed's 2% target.
With many years of inflated CPI figures, expecting a slowdown in price growth amid a sharp rise in energy and metals prices is a complete departure from economic reality. When oil prices were falling, how the hell were we going to get to two when they were rising? And you know, I keep hearing from presidential sycophants, like Scott Bessant on the Sunday morning shows , confident statements: They say, when the war with Iran is over, don't worry, oil will be $50 or $40 a barrel.
I mean, this guy is just lying. I mean, that's exactly what everyone in the Trump administration is doing . Apparently they were ordered to lie, and they do so because the entire administration is built on lies. This is a complete lie. One of the lies is that, you know, this war will end soon. There is no end in sight.
The war with Iran began over 6 months ago. It started at the end of February. Almost 6 and a half months have passed. I think we're further from victory now than when the bombs were first dropped . And if you remember, Trump said it would be, well, a simple operation. It was all supposed to be over in 2 weeks.
The entire regime was about to fall. We were going to change the regime. We were going to liberate Iran. It should have been easy, like a walk. Well, it's been over 6 months and we're actually in a worse position than we were. Iran is in much better shape because they have already endured the worst we could do.
I mean, we've already bombed everything. We blew up their fleet, did n't we? Trump constantly brags about how their beautiful ships lie at the bottom of the ocean. So, we sank their ships. Uh, we blew up a lot of their missiles. We destroyed many of their military targets. Okay, what now? I mean, they're still there.
The regime in power. Yes, these are different people, because we killed the previous ones, but now new ones have come.
Comments 0