저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드 포트폴리오 내에서 테슬라가 로쿠보다 매수 매력이 높다고 판단. [비교 기준 1: 분기 매출 성장률] 테슬라 매출 성장률 37%, 로쿠 11.91%로 테슬라가 3배 이상 높음. 2019년 이전에는 두 회사 모두 높은 성장률을 보였고, 이후 테슬라가 공급망 문제·인플레이션 등 어려움 속에서도 상대적으로 우위를 보임. [비교 기준 2: 최근 12개월 영업이익률] 로쿠는 2022년 이후 하락해 최근 12개월 기준 -8.3%. 테슬라는 상승세를 유지하며 16.98%로 로쿠보다 크게 우위. [비교 기준 3: 영업활동 현금흐름] 두 회사 모두 2022년 이전까지 상승세였으나 이후 로쿠는 12개월 기준 2억 4천만 달러대에서 -2,100만 달러로 급락. 테슬라는 약 147억 2천만 달러로 강한 현금흐름 유지. [비교 기준 4: 밸류에이션] PER: 로쿠 88.89, 테슬라 53.18로 로쿠가 더 비쌈(로쿠는 최근 적자로 공정한 비교 아님). PFCF: 로쿠 66.86, 테슬라 88.55로 테슬라가 더 비쌈(로쿠 현금흐름 음수, 데이터 시점도 상이). PSR: 로쿠 2.885, 테슬라 8.2로 로쿠가 상대적으로 저렴. 종합하면 로쿠가 모든 면에서 싸다고 보기는 어려움. [리스크 및 조건] 테슬라는 경쟁 심화로 인해 최근 차량 가격을 수천 달러 인하했고, 이는 매출총이익률 하락으로 이어질 수 있다고 언급. 로쿠는 매출원가 부담이 크고 플레이어 가격을 올리지 않아 마진 하락이 지속될 위험이 있다고 평가. [종합 판단] 성장률·수익성·현금흐름 세 지표에서 테슬라가 우위이므로 PSR 프리미엄(약 2배 이상)은 정당화된다고 봄. 발표자는 캐시 우드 보유 종목 중 현 시점 최선의 선택으로 테슬라를 제시. [기타] 영상 중 'deals to buy now' 등 광고성 문구가 포함되어 있음.
다듬은 글
Which stock from Katie Wood's portfolio is the best to buy ? Roku and Tesla are among the key holdings in Katie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF portfolio. Of course, a well-known investment manager is attracted to innovative stocks, growing companies, and strong long-term incentives. Roku and Tesla are no different from many other stocks she likes to hold.
So let's answer that question in the video by looking at four different metrics. Let's start with quarterly revenue growth on an annualized basis: even before 2019, they had equally high growth rates. Tesla outperformed Roku at certain times, then Roku outperformed Tesla, and then Tesla overtook Roku when it faced significant difficulties, coping worse with supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, inflation, and more.
Tesla's revenue growth of 37% was more than three times higher than Roku's 11.91%. So, Tesla has the advantage in terms of revenue growth rate. Next, let's look at the operating profit margin for the last 12 months. Again, let's go back to the period before 2019. Both companies were on a remarkable upward trajectory until 2022, when their paths diverged: Roku's operating margin began to decline, reaching minus 8.3% over the past 12 months.
Meanwhile, Tesla continued its upward trajectory, maintaining an operating profit margin of 16.98%—that's significantly better than Roku, so Tesla has the edge. I believe this advantage will likely remain with Tesla, even though the company faces increasing competition, having recently cut prices by thousands of dollars on two of its most popular cars.
This will lead to a decrease in gross profit margin. However, Roku faces greater difficulties due to its higher cost of goods sold. In addition, Roku did not raise prices for its players because it wanted to focus on growing its customer base and attracting new users. As a result of this decision, their margins continue to decline.
Next, I wanted to look at cash flow from operating activities and compare Roku and Tesla on this metric. Again, similar upward trends in both until 2022, when Roku's situation changed dramatically: cash flow from operating activities in the 12 months fell from over 240 million to minus 21 million in the most recent period.
At the same time, Tesla's upward trend has persisted; Although the figure is down slightly from the previous quarter , it remains very strong— $14.72 billion in cash flow from operations. So, Tesla has the advantage and wins on this metric as well. So, so far, Tesla has an incredible advantage in three out of three indicators.
My last metric is valuation, and when I see such an advantage, the only chance for a lagging company is if its valuation is much lower than the one that is doing better. So let's see if the Roku's cost is low enough to make up for the performance lag from the Tesla. Here I have listed the valuation metrics: Roku by price- to-earnings ratio, and Tesla by price- to-free cash flow and price-to-sales ratio.
Let's start with the price- to-earnings ratio: Roku is more expensive than Tesla, trading at 88.89 according to the latest data. Of course, its profits have recently turned negative, so that's not even a fair comparison. Tesla has this indicator of 53.18, so Tesla is more profitable by this criterion.
The same goes for the price- to-free cash flow ratio: Roku has 66.86, while Tesla has 88.55. So, by this metric, Tesla is more expensive, but Roku's cash flow was negative, as we saw on one of the previous slides. This is not a completely fair comparison, as Roku is currently in negative territory, and we are looking at data as of July 2022 , compared to Tesla's more recent data.
As for the price- to-sales ratio, we can compare them directly, because sales are never negative — well, not to say " never," but it's rare for any company , and certainly not for Roku. So, looking at the price- to-sales ratio, Tesla trades at a multiple of 8.2, while Roku trades at 2.885. Thus, by this indicator, Roku is significantly cheaper than Tesla, but if you look at it as a whole, then in terms of price- to-earnings ratio, Tesla wins over Roku.
Therefore, it is not entirely obvious that Roku is cheaper in all respects. And, regardless, in my opinion, Tesla's advantage over Roku on the three other metrics we looked at justifies its premium valuation. If Tesla, say, was trading at a price-to- sales multiple of 20 and Roku was trading at 2.885, then I might say, "Okay, that premium is a bit high." But I think a premium of just over double that is completely justified.
Tesla is confidently ahead of Roku on all major fundamental metrics. So, if I had to say which Katie Wood stock is the best to buy, I would say Tesla is the best pick among her stocks right now. Well, that's all I wanted to say in this video . Thank you for watching. See you next time. I want to thank The Motley Fool for sponsoring this video. Visit fool.com/parkev for the 10 best deals to buy now.
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