저자: Ashley · 외국인
요약 보기
QQQ가 하루 2.77% 급등한 뒤, 과거 데이터상 다음날 상승 지속(58%)과 1주 후 하락(67%) 경향을 언급. 주간 MACD 골든크로스와 RSI 상승을 근거로 상승 추세 전환을 주장하며 신고가 가능성 제시. 다만 갭 메움·조정 가능성도 언급. SPMO도 유망하다고 소개하고 유료 서비스 가입을 유도.
다듬은 글
This is a teaching example based on my experience; Results may vary significantly , and nothing herein guarantees profits or future results. Hello everyone. Welcome to the show " Trading with Ashley". I wanted to try recording a quick video. I had a crazy day. Thank God, my daughter is fine. I was in the middle of a busy day when I got the call everyone dreads—and it's happened to our kids a few times—that she had been in an accident.
And luckily, even though she was hit twice—a car swerved into her lane, hit her in front and spun her around, and a car behind her hit her side—thank God, she's okay. She has a safe car that is now completely wrecked, but she was the one who saved it, and it's a reminder of how fragile life is. So I want everyone to stop for a moment right now, hug their loved ones, and be grateful for every day spent with them.
But having said that, let's move on to more serious matters. I wanted to discuss what happened at the market today. It was an incredible growth that we saw. What was our score? It looks like there's a 2.77% return on QQQ alone today, which is impressive because that's an incredible jump in one day, and we've seen that happen a few times this year—2.5% or higher.
But what's even more surprising is that last week we were very far from the prices we have today. So, if you've been in the community and you've been lucky enough to make some deals, you're very happy now, and I'm sure you're wondering the same thing I do in these situations: "Oh, wow, is it worth taking a profit?" Is growth over?
Can I come in? Isn't it too late ? Can I still jump ? Did I miss the moment? So I decided to take some time today to figure it out. I researched what usually happens the day after such rapid growth. And also, what happens in a week and a month? I think this will surprise you. And there are a few more very important technical indicators that I noticed on the indices; I shared them with my participants and I want to share them with you so you can take a look at them for yourself .
You know, when you do this long enough, you start to understand the market movement well, and that helps you enter deals more confidently. So, the goal of this video is to break down what I see, and it will help you make better decisions for the rest of the trading week. Let's take a look. The first thing I want to do with you is analyze the research to see if that usually leads to a positive day.
So let 's look at the data I found . Actually, this data is quite interesting. If you look at the Qs performance for the 12 sessions with the largest movements over the past 3 years, you can see that in 58% of cases the next trading day for Qs was " green". This upward momentum, once it appears, usually has a continuation.
And if you look a week later, in 67% of cases the market was in the red, that is, higher than the day the jump occurred. This is important to note, and I will show you in the charts why this may be the case, especially at this point in time. So, let's look at this now. Let's see what I see on the charts.
You all know, having watched this channel for a long time, that I like to look at the MACD crossover, particularly the weekly one, to understand if we are in a bullish trend. We were in a bearish trend and I was sharing with you data that one of my great trainers had prepared; He noticed that after such a crossing, especially with respect to Qs, it usually takes about 10 weeks for the trend to change.
Eight weeks have passed, and judging by this data, the situation looks very promising. Let's take a look. You see right here on the RSI that this usually precedes an actual upward move above the weekly MACD. This just happened today. We saw this today. Now let's look at the MACD. You see, here it curves upwards.
Once this intersection occurs, provided that small green bars form in the next day or two, it is likely that we will go to all-time highs. This doesn't mean we have to go straight there. Maybe the situation will calm down a bit. The RSI may slow down a bit, and then new buyers will appear and the price will go up sharply.
But once this intersection occurs, it will become a very important technical signal for many traders. So expect that after the crossover itself you may see increased pressure from buyers. Let's look at this from a traditional technical perspective so you can see the RSI and what's going on. If you look at this chart, we are going beyond the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, but remember that these bands can move.
They can expand even further. We're at 65 on the RSI. Earlier today, when I was advising trades, we were below 60. So it's quite nice to open these trades in the morning and see them already rising rapidly, it's really exciting when that happens in one day. You don't expect it to happen so quickly, but sometimes it does .
And so you see that we have created a gap. So if there is some pullback, we could potentially close this gap right here at 721. And that could happen anytime in the next few weeks. It doesn't necessarily have to happen this week. But if there is some pressure, it is quite possible. If you say, "Okay, I'll enter the deal at the next gap close ." Maybe that's where it will happen.
But just keep in mind that there are no guarantees that these gaps will be closed. And if you're looking at a long-term deal, like I usually do , I like LEAPS options, then it doesn't matter if the market continues to go up as long as you're looking to make some money in the long run. So just remember that .
At 65, we can, of course , continue to grow. I want you to understand: when people say “I won’t trade when the RSI is at 65,” know that if the market moves sideways or slightly up, the RSI can cool down and drop to around 60, even if the indices don’t fall significantly. A sideways movement over the 14-day RSI period will “ cool” the indicator a bit.
So I want you to understand: this does not mean that serious pullbacks are needed for the RSI to go down. The market is still looking for growth, so it's worth considering. Let's take a look at another option that I want to show you. I like trading SPMO. The options chain is not as liquid as QQQ with spot, but I really like SPMO.
I made a whole video about this . If we look at the SPMO, it is about to cross the RSI line, and if that happens, we may see the same thing with the MACD. So, if you want a deal that isn't as expensive as QQQ but still has a lot of momentum, consider SPMO. If you are considering " skips", "puts" or even selling puts, or if you just want to buy and hold for a while.
This is also worth taking into account. I hope this gives you a little more insight. Let's take another look at SPMO and consider the technical indicators on our traditional moving averages and RSI. If you open the SPMO you will see the same gap as I saw on QQQ, but the RSI is not as overheated. It is at level 59, so there is obviously more room for growth.
This is very encouraging for those with small accounts and who want to trade what can catch momentum. This is not leverage. This is very important to note and it will help you if you decide to hold the asset for longer. I hope this has opened your eyes. Maybe I gave you a little more confidence to enter the market.
You may not have caught the bottom, but you don't have to catch the bottom to get a profitable trade, especially in long- term deals. Remember, if you trade with me, with Ashley, no trader will be left behind. If you're tired of guessing the market and want full access to me throughout the day, I'll leave a QR code on your screen.
Feel free to click on it and it will connect you with my team. They will tell you about the next steps. I can't wait to meet you in person. I'll leave you with one more video. Until next time, I'll leave it right here.
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