저자: Ashley · 외국인
요약 보기
실적 시즌 앞두고 테슬라는 MACD 주봉 골든크로스 미완, RSI 60, 200일선 근처라 실적이 상방 촉매가 될 수 있다고 봄; 자율주행 개인 경험을 강조하며 강세 입장. 인텔은 RSI 78로 과매수, 이미 큰 상승으로 선반영 우려, 보유분 커버드콜·익절 고려와 53달러 부근 재진입 언급. 옵션 프리미엄 수익률(연 환산 27~65%)을 근거로 풋셀·콜셀 전략 제시.
다듬은 글
This is an educational example based on my personal correct results vary widely and nothing here guarantees profit or future performance. Hello everybody. Welcome to the trading with Ashley show. I hope you're getting ready for a busy week of trading. It does look like we have a lot of potential volatility that can move the market.
So you have the geopolitical dynamics that's going on right now. There's a lot of question marks on that. But then it is the kickoff of earnings season. So I am going to go over two potential stocks. One you may consider buying before earnings and one you may consider selling before earnings. I'm going to be going over Tesla and Intel and I'm going to explain why I'm looking at each of them very differently.
And then I have some potential plays I want you to consider if you want to try to play earnings. Now when you play earnings you need to be careful. I never buy short-term options over earnings because the IV is elevated which means you are paying more for that option. And you not only have to be right on the direction you choose, you have to be right fast.
And so for that reason I only sell options over earnings. So I'm going to go through maybe what you might want to consider if you want more exposure to Tesla. There's a lot of reasons why you might and I'm going to go over what you might want to do if you own shares of Intel because it has experienced an incredible run and both are going into earnings with different dynamics.
And so I look at that when I'm trying to decide what to do. All right, let's go get into the details for each stock and I'll give you some potential plays that you might want to consider going into this week. Before we get into the technical analysis for Tesla and I'm going to also give you the expected move based on how I calculate expected move for earnings.
I wanted to talk real quick about the product itself. Now the stocks that I have the most conviction in are the ones that I personally experience the product. So I purchased a Tesla actually with my proceeds from trading Tesla. I was able to purchase a Model X with the self-driving capability. It's supervised self-driving.
Now we all know that they recently rolled out all of the different robotaxi dynamics. They just now expanded to Houston and Dallas which is huge. But I have been experiencing this for myself with the technology. It is incredible and it helped our family out quite a bit in this recent situation that we had.
My husband was having a medical emergency and so as you know when you're in the middle of a medical emergency rushing to the hospital, it's it's a very dynamic highly charged situation. It's really hard to focus, drive, and call the hospital all at once. But because I had Tesla self-driving, I was able to put on the mode of Mad Max which drives really fast.
I was able to put that on while I tried to calm down my husband in the passenger seat and I was able to actually reach the surgeon while we were driving. Tesla was doing all the driving. I was able to call, reach the surgeon and we got to the hospital they were able to get him into surgery right away based on the fact that I had arranged everything in advance on our 30-minute drive to the hospital.
Now truly had I not been in the self-driving mode, I don't know that I would have safely gotten us there with everything that was happening at the moment. And so when you think about the more people that experience this technology and what it brings to their lives and how it can truly help people, I think about our elderly individuals that they want to drive but they don't have the capacity to actually drive.
Their reflexes aren't as great. This would be an incredible gift to give to an elderly family member. Give them the self-driving technology so that they can be more mobile and they can get to where they want safely. So that's just scratching the surface on what Tesla offers. There's so much more coming with robotics and everything when you think about the human order robots and what it can offer us, there's a lot of positive things coming.
And I know it's scary to to give up some of our our freedoms and our human ability to robots. But I like to look at the potential opportunities that this stock offers. And so based on my personal experience, I am super bullish on Tesla and with the future holds. Now let's go look at the technical analysis.
The first thing that I want to do when evaluating Tesla is look at the MACD to determine whether it's bullish or bearish. Now you can see right here on the weekly we crossed over. This was in the December-January timeframe. We crossed down below the signal line and it has had a rough time ever since.
Now you can see down here we are starting to cross up but we're not quite there yet. To have a larger amount of confidence in Tesla from the price action dynamic, you'd want to see this crossover take place on the weekly and it stay above before it heads back up. But earnings could be the catalyst to actually push it back up through that MACD signal line and then if so, we could be off to the races.
Now looking at the technicals, let's take a look at all of the different things we like to consider when we are trading a stock. So you can see right here on the RSI, we are 60. So that's good because we are over 50 and that means that we could continue to run. There is some gas left in this tank if it wants to continue to run.
But we're also at a very important point. You see right here this 200-day moving average, we're sitting right there on the middle of it. We haven't yet definitively pushed above it. Now earnings could be that catalyst to push above this 200-day and if so, it might then start to use it as support as it takes on its new journey up the potential price action dynamic.
It's nowhere near the top of where it is traded. You can see right here the top is closer to 500. So you can see we've got a long way to go if it decides to turn bullish again. So really if you want to be more conservative, you're in the wait and see mode for Tesla. Or if you're a little bit more aggressive, you want to start establishing a longer-term position now.
This would not be a bad spot to start to buy longer-term leaps or actually buy the shares. Let's look at the expected move. I did this calculation for you. The expected move on Tesla post earnings is about $22 up or down. So we are looking at anywhere between 378 and 422. Now remember this is just the expected move.
It could do something completely different. But at least we have that bit of knowledge before we go look at potential trades. As most of you know, I like using elevated IV to sell options on some of my favorite stocks especially over earnings because you're going to get this additional premium just for putting your money at risk over an earnings dynamic.
So let's look at a potential two trades I found really. Look here at 5/22/2026. This is 33 days from now. This is a monthly option. And when I'm trading over earnings, I like to give myself a few weeks at least after earnings to allow for some price movement to take place if the stock drops. And so you can see right here 375 is something that I'm looking at.
And the reason I'm looking at 375 is because if you notice that expected move gets it down to 378. So I'm going a little bit lower than that and that would offer me about $11 right now to take this trade. Now if Monday things pull down further, you would actually get more to take the trade at the 375 level.
So if I took this trade, then that would offer me a 35% annualized return with the premium being used. It would make my adjusted cost basis around $364 and if you're looking at just how much that is in one month, it's a 2.9% return. Again, annualized that's 35%. So I like that potential trade. Another one that caught my eye if you want to be a little bit more aggressive is actually an at the money trade.
You can see right here at 400 is where Tesla is currently trading. Now if you took this sold put, it's riskier. You have to put more money at risk and if it drops hard, then you might be left holding this or be assigned the shares unless you roll the trade. But you can see right here it's paying 2180.
So that would be an adjusted cost basis of around 379. I think that's interesting because with the significant premium that I'll be receiving for this trade, it gets it down closer to the expected move. So this is just one way to consider if you want to play options and get the premium up front. And then if this takes off, then I get a lot more.
In fact, if I look at just the premium alone, that's a 5.45% return in one month which is a 65% annualized return. Again, if this pulls back on Monday with the heightened volatility, then it'll be even more. Now for those of you with smaller accounts, I like trading TSLL because there's more liquidity on this chain than what you'll typically see with a leveraged ETF.
It's because it's a very popular stock to trade so you can usually get in and out of your positions pretty easily. And so if you're going to look at trading TSLL over earnings, I like to shoot for somewhere down here at the bottom of the band. I like to give myself a little bit more room on these leveraged tickers because they're a little bit more dangerous to take assignment if you're going to end up having to hold it through continued downtrend.
So I like to be more conservative on my leveraged plays. So I'm going to shoot for something around $10. Let's see what we can get in premium. If you go in your option chain for 5/22, that's 33 days away, and you look at that $10 strike. Currently if you put up $10 a share, so that would be $1,000 in collateral, you would receive 23 cents a share for agreed to take the stock at $10 a share.
So that is $23 which would be about a 2.3% return on a monthly basis. And annualized, it's a 27% return. Of course you could be more aggressive if you want and do at the money. But like I said, it's really a risk when you're doing that leveraged tickers because the movement is twice as fast up. It is also twice as fast down.
But this is a good potential play for my smaller accounts that want to get into the game with T S L L. Let's talk a little bit more about Intel. Now, Intel is going into earnings in a completely different spot. It has experienced a significant run this year already. And what I have noticed is when you go into earnings with a stock that's already had a significant run, a lot of the potential is already priced in.
So, they have to not only beat earnings, but they have to far surpass earnings and have significant forward guidance to actually get investors excited about buying at the top. So, let's consider that as we're going into our analysis on Intel and see if you have the stock and it's in your trading account, what you might consider doing with it.
What a potential exit might be if you have it and you want to sell covered calls or if you want to sell maybe a leaps or a skip that you're holding and when you might want to buy back in. Let's go look at that now. Looking at ticker symbol INTC for Intel, it's at a different spot as mentioned. You can see it right here on the RSI.
We're at 78. This is something I really want everybody to consider because once you hit 70, you're overbought and we're at 78. So, if you own this stock, this is not a bad time to go ahead and take profit or at least consider selling covered calls. Now, the expected move for Intel is going to be 650 either way.
So, you're looking at 6150 all the way up to 7450. But, there's one other thing I want to show you. I like looking at fib extensions once a stock has reached close to its all-time high because it gives me a better idea of where it could potentially go. So, I like looking at this particular fib extension and that gets us right above 85.
So, sticking with my principles of trying to stay within the expected move or in this case, the fib extension, let's go look at what we could get in premium if we have the shares and we want to sell a covered call maybe at $85 strike. If we go out to 522, 33 days away, then if we look at the 85 strike right here and you already have the shares and obviously you're selling the 85 covered call, that's above its all-time high.
So, I know you'd be in profit at that point. Look at the premium. It's $1.66 at this point a share. So, that provides a nice little kicker for the call away at 85. Now, I would only do this in my trading account. If you are holding on to Intel for a longer-term hold, then you might not want to even consider selling covered calls at this point because like I said, earnings is a gamble.
You never know what could happen. This is only if you are trading the stock and you are wanting to generate income from the wheel strategy. Also, something to consider, if you are holding an option that expires within the next 60 days, maybe a call option, a skip or a leap, this is the point where you might want to consider taking profit on it because we are so overbought at this point with that RSI being at 78.
Now, if you do have your shares called away for any reason and you want to get back in, you'd want to consider stay over 50 on the RSI, you'd want to consider trying to get back in anywhere around the middle of the span. Currently, that is around that $53 mark. You could be a little bit more aggressive if you didn't mind this little gap right here and you could go maybe something closer to around $60 if you wanted to get in quicker because you're trying to get back in.
I hope that give you a few ideas as we get ready for this busy week. Now, I will be very active in the community this week calling out a significant number of trade setups. I've already looked at several different tickers and I am excited for what I can offer to the community this week on the way that I am looking at different tickers.
If we have that elevated IV, there's some incredible opportunities. We just cashed in on several of them that we took during the last big IV event. If you want to be a part of all of that, there is a link below and we can get you set up and in the community in the coming days. I'll look forward to personally working with you to help you navigate Wall Street.
Remember, if you're with me, trading with Ashley, there is in their trader left behind. Now, if you're interested in earnings and you want to get ready for earnings, I put together an entire playbook for you. I'm going to leave that for you right here.
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