저자: Kevin · 외국인
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스페이스X IPO가 약 750억 달러 규모로 1.5조 달러 가치 추정, 리테일 배정 명분 뒤에 자금 조달 목적이 있다고 주장. 로빈후드·소파 배정 배제 이슈, 모건스탠리·E*TRADE 연결을 지적. XAI 월 약 10억 달러 소진, 스타링크 ARPU 과장 의혹, 낮은 유통물량(float) 전략으로 밈 급등 후 덤프 가능성 제기. 이란 전쟁이 경기침체로 이어지면 IPO에 불리하다는 견해. 개별 종목 매수/매도 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
Elon Musk SpaceX is expected to file its initial public offering IPO paperwork within the coming days. What should you know about it? What should you know about the valuation, it's licensing for air spectrum. This is really important. What should you know about what the NASDAQ just unlocked just for SpaceX, which was a nice handout.
And what should you know about what's going on with Robinhood, SoFi, Morgan Stanley, debt expenses, and everything else? Well, in this video I'm going to break this down. Quick bias out of the way, I do have a venture capital fund that did get into SpaceX around the $300 billion range. At that point I thought some of the valuation forecasts were a little on the rich side, but I had a lot of faith.
And let's just say now it's expected to IPO for roughly 5x that valuation, which is crazy. I don't know how that will end up working out with all the dilution that happens in these IPOs, but let's just put the bias out there. Got exposure, but I have concerns. That's where my bias is, so we'll start with that.
And now let's just stick to some of the facts. Let's start with some of the interesting facts. First, we know that Elon Musk wants this IPO to potentially have three times as many retail investors in it as a usual IPO, which is interesting because it makes it seem like Elon Musk is Robinhood. Like, ah, the man, he's just trying to help out the regular people like you and me and our friends and our neighbors.
What a nice guy. But is that actually what's happening? Because after all, we just heard from Reuters that both Robinhood and SoFi might be getting cut out of the IPO allocation market. And this is leading a lot of people to scratch their heads and go, "Wait a minute. I thought Elon was going to take care of us retail folk.
How are you going to go about cutting out Robinhood and SoFi and say this is supposed to be a retail IPO? What the HE double hockey stick, step bro?" Okay. So, first of all, you have to know a little bit how these IPOs work, okay? So, SpaceX wants to raise money. We're going to talk Terafab in just a moment because that relates to obviously Tesla and XAI and, you know, how much is that Terafab going to cost?
I didn't do a breakdown video on the event, but I'll give you my honest opinion on the Terafab in just a moment. But, let's put it this way. SpaceX needs to or wants to raise about what's currently rumored $75 billion from the IPO. Now, what generally happens is SpaceX is going to go, you know, kind of show their junk to a bunch of Wall Street firms and say, "Hey, can y'all give me a firm commitment?" This is a way of a bank like JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley, an investment bank of that side of banking, which investment banks technically aren't banks, but we don't need to get too nuanced here, okay?
The big Wall Street suits are going to come in and go, "Mhm, sign us up for $400 million. Sign us up for $200 million. Sign us up for $100 million." And now those investment bank arms are going to go around and they're going to pick up the phone and they're going to start trying to pre-sell. "Hey, I could get you into some pre-IPO shares of Teradyne International.
Can I get you to commit?" That's essentially what happens. And so, people wire their money and it gets pre-sold and the goal is by the time you actually have the IPO, SpaceX already has a commitment of that $75 billion in the bag because SpaceX doesn't want to go public and then all of a sudden the stock drop off a cliff because they're trying to sell shares to the public on the open market and you get these giant red candlesticks because they're selling shares because they're trying to raise $75 billion.
This is why companies go public to raise money. It is to access liquidity. XAI just raised 20 billion bucks in January and rumor has it that was kind of hard to pull off. Elon now wants to raise $75 billion. While private credit is in shambles. One of the best ways to do that might be to suck up to a retail audience and make it seem like you're bumping elbows with the normal guy who's going to write you a $100,000 check times, you know, however many thousands of people to get to your $75 billion level.
Now, you might be saying to yourself, "Wait a minute. I don't have a $100,000 check to write to this." And that is exactly why they are probably cutting out Robinhood and SoFi. I hate to say it, but Robinhood's and SoFi's average account balances do not sit anywhere near other companies like E*TRADE.
You can actually take Robinhood's total platform value or total platform assets from their own filings of about $324 billion and divide that by about 27 million users and you'll find that Robinhood has about an average Robinhood account has about $12,000 in their account. The average SoFi account, they don't disclose for their brokerage side, but their average like savings account or like checking account is somewhere around like $2,737.
I'll have to fact-check me on this one, but they're both pretty low. Compare that to E*TRADE. E*TRADE sits at about $70,000 in each average account. Hmm, interesting. So, which retail customer do we really want to bump elbows with? The Elon Musk brokies or the richies? Now, I'm not trying to call you brokie.
They're the ones making the decision, not me. I'm just saying the way they're marketing this as trying to get retail in there is kind of like you're allowed in as retail as long as you got money, which seems a little shystery, but that's the point. That's how they're trying to get to this $75 billion, which I think the whole timing of this Well, you'll see the point by the end of the video.
Now, before I move on from this, I want you to know this. Morgan Stanley has been a really big proponent of Elon Musk. Morgan Stanley & Co. have frequently lent money to help finance the X acquisition with Twitter. They lent money to XAI. They're frequently involved in their underwriting deals. They write these bullish research pieces on Tesla, FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus.
I mean, I've seen so many of these headlines. Morgan Stanley, you know, bull calls for, you know, this price target on Tesla because Robotaxi is going to take over the world and then Optimus is going to take over the other world. And, you know, what's kind of crazy, Morgan Stanley wants to lend Elon more money.
And, boys and girls, guess who owns E-Trade? Hmm, wait a second. E-Trade, the the one that that they are not cutting out? So, they're cutting out Robinhood and they're cutting out SoFi, but they're not going to cut out E-Trade. You know, that that platform that we don't actually really hear that much about in retail communities.
Wait, they're not getting cut out, but who owns E-Trade? Oh, Morgan Stanley. No Yeah, you kind of start seeing how the game gets played. Now, why would they do that? Because I thought Elon's just trying to be a nice guy to, you know, give us all a chance to have a bite at the apple. Isn't that what he's trying to do for us?
I mean, after all, we're going to go intergalactic based on that terrafab announcement and presentation. I mean, come on. We got to get to a level three civilization here. Well, here's why. Elon Musk desperately needs dollars. There's probably no way that SpaceX, as much as we love SpaceX, could pull off raising $75 billion to actually get this terrafab going.
SpaceX, and we haven't actually seen the IPO paperwork yet, but from what we know, SpaceX has an EBITDA of about $8 billion. Now, XAI burns about a billion dollars per month. So, let's assume that for example for a moment SpaceX had an EBITDA of $12 billion for the year. And let's assume their taxes, depreciation, amortization, and interest were zero.
If XAI burns $12 billion a year, then the company makes zero dollars. In other words, XAI burns more than the money that SpaceX generates. This is probably also why Elon's been firing a lot of people, including co-founders at XAI, because he's really got to reduce that burn because while their burn rate's a billion dollars a month, their revenue is only about less than 5% of OpenAI's revenue.
This is because there's been a lot of talk about how XAI has trouble actually selling to enterprises, and they don't have the correct sales teams, or whatever. Who knows? I'm I'm trying to bag on Grok. I'm just passing on reporting that I'm seeing out there. You can verify that all yourself, but the information had a big report on this and there were, you know, of course Morgan Stanley swoops in and says, well, you know, we're doing a big enterprise test with xAI and I'm like, of course you are Morgan Stanley.
You have you they basically have you by the, you know, what? The huevos because, you know, you lent a lot of money to Elon. You need to say nice things about them. So, but anyway, like what we have to remember is Elon needs money. And while they're advertising Starlink like crazy, almost any airport you go to now, you see Starlink advertisements, Morgan Stanley told institutional investors that Starlink would probably have an ARPU or average revenue per user of about $170 per month on average.
Yet the reality is SpaceX ARPU is probably closer to $50 per month. That is a more than 3x misstatement. So, you can kind of see how Morgan Stanley, E-Trade and Elon are sort of in bed together, but so far they don't have the best reputation at actually giving us accurate information. Despite all of this, you have to give them credit.
Their valuation has been going up a lot. Take a look at this. In January of 2023, they were worth $137 billion. SpaceX goes profitable. 6 months later 150, 6 months later 180, 6 months later 210, 6 months later 350. Somewhere between these two rounds is when my venture capital firm got involved. Uh, and then, we ended with I guess now at the end of last year an $800 insider secondary offering.
And then, of course, they're targeting 1.5 bill- sorry, 1.5 trillion dollars, 1,500 billion dollars, uh by you know, this summer in in their IPO. Now, why does this matter? Well, it matters because like I said, Elon needs the money. Not just because of XAI, but Tesla Well, Tesla might have an extra 20 billion dollars lying around outside of their bills to pay, right?
Because if you just look at the cash line, you know, you have to subtract the bills they have to pay. They've probably got 18 to 20 billion dollars of free cash sitting around. That's nice, but it's not really going to pay for a terrafab. My guess is a terrafab is going to cost somewhere between 100 to 200 billion dollars.
Though, I have to say, there are some semiconductor analysts that I have to add like you know, I'd I'd be misleading you if I didn't give this information. Elon Musk's terrafab semiconductor project could cost 5 trillion dollars, Bernstein claims. A Herculean effort would cost more than 70% of the total yearly US government budget.
All right? That's their POV. But, let's just say for a moment it cost 200 billion dollars to build a terrafab. Okay, fine. Sounds a little bit like real estate, right? So, let's go ahead and type in 200. And how much are we going to put down on this puppy? 40%? 35%? Let's go with 35% down. 35% down.
Oh, I need 70 billion dollars. Well, hot damn. How much should we raise from the SpaceX IPO? How about 75? Plus some money from Tesla. Essentially, enough money to cover losses at XAI. About 12-ish billion dollars a year. Yeah, offset with obviously some net income, you know, maybe 5-6 billion from SpaceX.
So, you're maybe losing 7 billion a year over there. This combined with Tesla's money, you know, plus the 20, you got about 90 billion bucks, right? So, we could finance up the terrafab and pay some losses over at XAI. Elon needs that money. Now, Elon could, and he's alluded to this on X. He's asked, "Hey, should I, you know, uh give back and sell some Tesla stock to pay some taxes and pay my fair share?" And he'll quote like Elizabeth Warren to do this stuff.
Let's be real. The the guy ain't going to sell Tesla stock to pay his fair share. He's going to sell Tesla stock, if he's going to sell it, to do something with that money. Last time in 2022, he sold like $25 billion worth of Tesla stock so he could buy X. Now, if he were to sell, it's so he could build his terrafab, because he really believes in the terrafab, right?
Anyway, he needs your money. And an IPO is frankly probably the easiest way for them to do it. $20 billion raised for XAI, which some say was hard to accomplish in January, might mean a lot of Elon's investors are a little bit tapped. And who knows how many of those people who helped fund the $20 billion, you know, got a little nudge nudge wink wink from Elon that it was about to convert into SpaceX shares.
Just give me some money now, and I promise to make it up to you, because you'll be part of the SpaceX shares, and I'll let you dump early. Yeah, who knows? There there is talk that there will not be a lockup at all for the SpaceX IPO. In other words, it'll IPO, and insiders won't have a lockup. So, all the people who gave him money in January to bail out XAI are now getting SpaceX shares, and they're being promised no lockup.
To be determined. We do not have the filing paperwork yet. Elon, please don't sue me, bro. Not been sued by Elon yet. Just adding perspective. However, I think I might be one of the only YouTubers who could say they have been blocked and unblocked by Elon Musk. Musk. Where's my Elon? I feel like I need an Elon hat for this.
Let's Let's see here. We need a We need to put like an Elon ink hat on. I'm sure I've got one in here somewhere. Uh but anyway, uh nope, Deer Valley Montage, that's not going to cut it. No, we need a Tesla hat. There we go. Okay. So, let's like actually get into some of the weeds here for a moment. If you add for a moment or up, how many people are typically allowed to sell in an IPO?
You usually have a restricted float of how many shares that the company puts up and then a limit on people who can sell. Okay. What you actually have here is a completely different setup. SpaceX is probably going to go for a low float. They're going to probably allow people to dump right at IPO and as a result, they're rushing to get SpaceX included into Nasdaq indices, probably like the triple Qs.
You know, Nasdaq 100 and then underlying stocks have to go buy it as well, like the QQQ, right? Okay. Nasdaq has a typically 90-day requirement. In other words, you have to be a public company for 90 trading days, about, you know, a little over 3 months. And you have to have a you have to have 10% of your shares outstanding on the market.
Now, if I lost you there for a moment, let me just clean that up for a moment. Nasdaq is a stock exchange. You can list your company there. But, they have rules. They say, "Look, if you want to join our index, our Nasdaq 100 index, we are going to require that you prove that your price can be stable for 90 days and you have more than 10% of your company on the market uh available for people to buy and sell." Well, Elon apparently got Nasdaq to change the rules for him, probably because he threatened to go list on the NYSE.
See, you might not know this, but the stocks you trade, they can actually choose, do I want to go ring the bell at the New York Stock Exchange, or do I want to go push the button at the NASDAQ in Times Square? One's on Wall Street, one's on Times Square. You have a choice. They compete against each other.
NASDAQ, they say, "Oh, we're the we're the tech guys. We're the cool kids on the block." And NYSE has the the classic traditional brokerage, right? And you you see the bell, the building, right? It's beautiful. You know, I rang the bell there. I've nothing but great things to say about NYSE. That said, I bet you NASDAQ changed the rules for Elon because Elon's like, "Oh, you know, I can go list somewhere else, you know, there are other options here.
This isn't a monopoly. It's kind of a duopoly." Although they're talking about a stock exchange in Texas, too. But anyway, if you now think about this, wait a second. NASDAQ says, "Oh, well, you only need to be public for 15 days, and then we'll put you in an index. Oh, and we're going to remove the 10% float requirement." Huh.
So now, theoretically, what you could do is you could go out and issue a very low float. You know, kind of like that stock VCX did. VCX is an NAV fund. This is really a topic for a different video, but it's it's a company that basically is supposed to trade at a net asset value of about $18. Uh but they floated so few of the shares uh that so many people thought they would get exposure to OpenAI and Anthropic or whatever, that they paid whatever for this thinking it was a stock that was going to the moon.
But this isn't a stock. This is literally just an NAV fund. And so it's going to go back to some level around $18. My expectation is it might actually fall even below that because it's just, you know, it's going to have a horrible track record by the time it gets to 18. People are going to be like, "Why would I buy this $18 stock when it was trading for $575, right?" But anyway, Fundrise I think really screwed up on this.
They tried to play the meme game, and I think they're going to get burned on this. But the point is, one way you can pump an IPO is by having a very low float. Another one that did this recently was Swarmr. They only put out 15 million dollars. That's it. This is a company that basically has no revenues.
They lose money hand over fist. They've got like 12 employees. And somehow the company is worth half a billion dollars because they Trevor Milton I'm sorry, I didn't mean to say it. They pitch you drone AI. Okay. All right. What Whatever. They low floated this, memed up, and people are trading this with very few dollars.
It's probably going to collapse and be a penny stock worse than Lucid in the future. I wouldn't touch this with a 10-ft pole until they actually generate revenues. Sorry. I I I told you I'd be blunt in this. But my point is, Elon Musk could theoretically pull something like this off with SpaceX. Because think about this.
What is 75 billion divided by 1,500 billion? It's 5%. So to raise 75 bill, he could probably just sell 5% of the float. And maybe if he's got another 1 or 2% of the insiders like himself or employees who want to sell, fine. He might only put out 7% of the float of this entire company. So in other words, instead of 1.5 trillion dollars of the company actually being available in trading, you'll actually probably be closer to something like 100 billion dollars, about 7% floating and trading.
Which means a lot of people are likely going to be tempted to have those shares, and you could actually see it meme move, much like both Swarmer and VCX. So, in the short term, this low float strategy and sell to retail first is potentially going to make Elon look like a king because he's going to dump the bags on retail first, then he low float issues.
So, when it actually goes public, people lose their crap, and they want the shares, they pay any price for it, and then the insiders who helped bail out Elon and J Crew are going to be like, "Thank you, Elon." Sell. Kind of see how it's all getting built up? Oh, wait a minute. For you to actually pull off that kind of hype pump, you're going to need a story.
Now, do I have a story for you? Introducing, I really feel like I need I need some music for this. Do I have any music for this? Yeah, probably something like this. Welcome. Nice to have you. So, you want to talk about love making, right? the wrong one. Okay, how about this one? Introducing the Terafab.
We need 1 terawatt of compute per year, which is more than 50X what the world has today. Yeah. All right. It's true. Uh, we estimate that right now, uh, through AI compute, we only generate about 23 gigawatts of compute, and Elon says we basically need, uh, well, 50X that, which would be about 1,000 gigawatts.
Now, obviously, SpaceX cannot afford that with what's probably now negative EBITDA unless they really clean up SpaceX, uh, or sorry, XAI, in which case they're probably close to break even. And of course, they'll do some fancy financial engineering to try to make this IPO really pop, right? But, their their profitability probably isn't fantastic right now with the inclusion of XAI.
Fine. So, instead, we need a story. How about this? Quote, "We're going to create economies 1 million times the size of the Earth economy." Who even wants to invest in the Earth economy when you can invest into an economy that is 1 million times the size of the Earth economy? How are we going to do that?
Duh. We're going to climb the Kardashev scale. That's right. We're going to become a level three civilization. Mhm. You know what we are now? Level one. Mhm. I'm going to get us to level three. And we're going to control intergalactic energy in the space-time continuum. Folks, institutions are going to be like, "Yeah, bro.
Morgan Stanley told us $170 average revenue per user. You guys are at 50. I'm out." Retail's going to BE LIKE, "THE SPACE-TIME CONTINUUM?" BYE. I'm sorry. I I I don't know if if you can get where I'm going with this yet. But anyway, um there is something good here. Okay? EchoStar did sell $17 billion worth of licenses to SpaceX at the end of 2025 for about, again, $17 billion.
Uh EchoStar has a lot of exposure to SpaceX stock, and it's one of the reasons why EchoStar has been, well, performing quite well as a stock. Uh that is uh EchoStar, it's uh ticker SATS. And uh basically, the only reason they've been pumping is because of their exposure to SpaceX. Which is fine. You can see the stock basically did nothing until it turned out, you know, "Oh, here.
They sold licenses to SpaceX, and they got SpaceX stock in exchange." And then we hear the IPO rumors and people are like, "Oh my gosh, well EchoStar has exposure." So, people are sort of buying this as a proxy. But anyway, if if SpaceX is truly going to send a terawatt of AI compute to and from orbit, they're going to need insane wireless spectrum and bandwidth to send all of that back to the United States.
Now, you know, there's some talk and and I don't really want to speculate on this, but I'll just say there's some talk going on right now that satellite 343, which is sort of like the guilty sparks Halo, but anyway, satellite 34343 apparently exploded from SpaceX and people are like, "Oh my gosh, this is weird.
What happened? Did a fuel tank explode? Did a propulsion system explode? Why why is there debris floating around? Like what's going on?" We don't know. But now we know why SpaceX wants wanted these licenses because they need these licenses to send that data from a terrafab back to space and back and forth or, you know, from base stations around the country, wherever those might be or, you know, whatever.
Because the terrafab is really the manufacturing of chips for, you know, Optimus or cyber cabs and then obviously and presumably data center chips that would go into space, which has its own issues. You have to deal with radiation, you have to deal with thermal control. Obviously, we're going to need, you know, delivery.
I think SpaceX has pretty damn well worked out, but but maintenance, right? These that running a data center in space is going to take a lot of work to actually get that functioning and then a lot of time. So, it's a good idea, it's a good sales pitch, but again, for right now, it's probably merely a sales pitch.
In the short term, you know, what you might be able to do with those licenses is provide direct, you know, cell phone connectivity and that's probably why Apple partnered with SpaceX and T-Mobile for direct-to-cell service, which they had that partnership back in November of 2025. Now, EchoStar back in November was a $26 billion company.
Today, it is a $32 billion company. And again, it's pretty much moving as a proxy for SpaceX. Obviously, Rocket Lab is another one that people have been getting very excited about because of these movements at SpaceX as well. It is currently trading down from its highs of nearly $100, but you can kind of align the more SpaceX IPO hype there is, the more these two stocks tend to do really well.
Now, a lot of people are also wondering like, is is this why Elon Musk is getting involved with Trump again? I would say, yes. After donating $290 million in 2024 to help get Trump elected, he added about 10 to 15 million at the end of last year to get Republicans elected in these upcoming midterms.
This is after he said he's done enough with politics and he might not do any more, but then 3 days ago he was on the phone with Modi from India, the Prime Minister, and Donald Trump, which is making a lot of people wonder, is Trump inviting Elon back on again to basically get Elon's pocketbook? So, Donald Trump can get the same fundraising for midterms because otherwise Trump might be worried that he'll get obliterated in midterms.
Now, I don't know. But, the only thing that could really, in my opinion, derail this insane sales pitch is the war in Iran. So, I would highly expect that the war in Iran needs to at least show some sign of a negotiated truce before the IPO. But, Elon Musk is trying to beat Anthropic and OpenAI. And one of the reasons is, this is going to be a massive IPO.
Last year, in the entire IPO market, we raised about $77.5 billion. And this is expected to raise $75 billion, which basically is as much as every single IPO combined in 2025. And nearly twice as much money as what was raised in IPOs in 2024, which was about $41.4 billion. So, basically, Elon Musk is trying to suck up to rich retail.
He doesn't care about poverty retail. He needs money. He needs your money because we are going intergalactic. Now, Elon Musk has obviously been called crazy many times before, and he's pulled off some wonderful things. Reusable rockets, low-earth satellite, frankly, still the best consumer available ADAS technology ever.
I hate driving other cars that don't have self-driving. I do expect that at some point in the future other manufacturers will have self-driving technology that is comparable to Tesla, but right now Tesla's the moat. So, uh, you know, obviously, Optimus and robo-taxis, whether they're geo-mapping or what, all of these things to be determined.
It's really a topic for a Tesla video. But, really, this massive SpaceX IPO, I think, is a giant hope bag to get Elon as much money as possible so he can go build his Terafab. So, they have to tell you whatever you want to hear to part with your money to help Elon fund what's probably going to be a multi-hundreds of billion of dollar Terafab.
Now, what actually could work out in Elon's favor is if, for some reason, there's some kind of other AI crash and memory prices collapse because OpenAI struggles or AI becomes commoditized or whatever, then it might actually end up being easier to get to his goals without investing as much money into a Terafab.
I do have faith that Elon will pivot as necessary. I think a lot of the Terafab claims, at least today, on a numbers basis are completely outlandish, and they're really just designed to hype people for this IPO. Like, why do a roadshow where you go pitch investment banks when you could just throw a retail event and get retail to throw money at you.
I kind of think that's what's happening here. So, I have to say I think this is setting up for a really big pump and the dump. That is outside of the war in Iran. I think that if the war in Iran drags us into a recession, the timing for Elon's IPO will be very unfortunate because the market probably won't reward it as much as it would otherwise.
That said, I do think there'll be insatiable demand for the IPO both beforehand and once the stock is public. And I can't wait to actually see some real financials and maybe we'll be surprised. But I'm a numbers guy. I bought a lot of Tesla back when it was very unpopular to do so in 2017 and 18 Model 3 crisis.
Everybody hated Tesla. I bought a lot of Nvidia at the bottom in 2022. Everybody hated that I was buying Nvidia at that time. They thought it was a scam. And both of those stocks returned me over like many multiples of seven figures, which is fantastic. And you know, today we're setting up for other stocks that I think will do that over the next 10 years.
You know, I can't guarantee that, but I've got a top 10 11 list of stocks to buy that I think have a high likelihood of of performing very well over the next 10 years. I'm very excited about that. If you want those, remember go over to meetkevin.com. You can use the expiring coupon code that's over there. And folks, I love you. Either way, consider sharing and .
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