저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프의 중동 추가 병력(1만명) 발표와 이란 관련 긴장 고조, 연준의 금리 인상 가능성 반영(연내 인상 확률 약 39%), 유동성 경색 우려로 증시·금·국채가 동반 하락. 나스닥100 조정 진입, QQQ 577 저항 주목. 메모리 관련주(SanDisk·마이크론) 하락 베팅, 특정 종목 급락 콜을 근거로 제시. 이란 전쟁 확대 시 미군 취약성 및 장기 리스크 강조.
다듬은 글
Ah, crap. Donald Trump talking about 10,000 more troops coming to the Middle East, but that's not the only reason markets are selling off today. We're going to break it all down. Not only do we have Federal Reserve concerns, quagmire concerns about troops being a sitting duck or a set of sitting ducks in the Middle East, but also, hate to say it, but Fed pricing.
Take a look at this. This is Fed pricing through December 9th of 2026. This right here indicates a broad consensus of about 60% that we will not change rates. Okay, well, usually even how the year started was that we were expecting to price in two rate cuts for the rest of the year, right? Yeah. Well, if you notice there's nothing to the left of this bar chart.
That's because the market has assigned a 0% probability of a single rate cut this year. And instead has priced in a 32% chance of one rate hike, a 6.2% chance of two rate hikes, and even a half percent chance of three rate hikes. So, when you put this cumulative effect together, you get about a 39.3% chance of rate hikes this year by December.
This does not bode well with market liquidity. Everything lately has been about liquidity. In case you're wondering, Kevin, hey, you know, you called it gold was topping out after Kevin was chosen, but why is it selling off during a geopolitical issue? This is weird. It has to do with the same problems that are coming up in private credit, the same problems we're seeing in gold, it's the same problem we're seeing in the Treasury market, it's the same problem we're seeing in the stock market.
It all has to do with the L word. No, not loser. Liquidity. Listen to Goldman Sachs here indicate, quote, "Another weak auction yesterday, a Treasury auction, which also suggests low liquidity." Quote, "And it's starting to feel like something isn't quite right. The clearer explanation is a cross-asset liquidity grab.
If producers can't monetize oil flows, they need to raise cash elsewhere, which could be contributing to a correlated sell-off across rates, equities, and gold. This is an unsustainable equilibrium. In other words, nobody got dough to keep spending because, wow, maybe we're realizing that margin levels, and these are net long margin levels, being 36% higher than the highest level we had during the 2021 boom, is not a good thing.
Maybe everybody going all in on Donald Trump taco after liberation day, yoloing it up on margin, just set up for the next big poopy doopy. Now, liquidity explains why we're seeing this pain across the board, but why is it getting worse? A lot of that, of course, has to do with Donnie T and what's going on with this 10,000 troops for Iran and the potential quagmire of being a sitting duck.
Talk about that in just a moment as Joe Kent talks exactly about that. We do have the 10-year Treasury, which pulled back a little bit since our pre-market, which was in our alpha report this morning. In our alpha report, we said look for the 10-year Treasury to go from that 4.48 level, where we were pre-market open, back down to 4.4 or 4.3.
We're at 4.43 now, which is fantastic, but it's still leading to the highest mortgage rates we've seen in roughly about 6 months. And unfortunately, the higher rates go, the more liquidity problems we end up having in private credit and elsewhere. So, all relates. Now, I want you to see this video from Joe Kent, because it really indicates what we might be up against.
So, we're going to watch this. But I do want to show you just a few of the calls we've made in the alpha report just in the last few days. Take a look at this. We're bearish into the Trump arc, and this isn't a pitch, it's really just an opportunity for for you to learn and kind of My goal is to teach you on this channel, so you can see the perspective.
We know the Donald Trump arc, we've been talking about it on the channel. So, it was easy to be bearish going, you know, starting Tuesday to Wednesday, we're like, look, by Thursday, Friday, we're probably going to be lower because of the Trump arc of escalation coming by Thursday, Friday. Sure enough, not only do we get paratroopers deployed, now we're getting 10,000 potential more troops deployed per the Wall Street Journal, which would be in in addition to the amphibious group, the USS Tripoli, which is arriving today.
Uh and and then, of course, the the second set of amphibious troops, which are showing up in about a week or two. We're now potentially getting an additional 10,000 troops to the region. But anyway, so we were bearish for the Thursday, Friday arc, which so far has been the fantastic call. We're watching for ceiling of 577 on QQQ, which would be bearish if we reject 577.
That's already correction territory for Nasdaq, mind you. We just lost 577 yesterday, which is officially the start of the Nasdaq 100 correction. We are also calling on a daily basis that every kind of bounce we're getting in the stock market is fading rapidly. This is pretty common. Traders get in, they try to make a buck, but it's really hard to actually ride any of these bounces because they're just followed up by more selling.
You get about to 10 minutes of rallies, and that's it. Then it keeps going down. It's sort of been the pattern, and so it's been a very challenging to trade to the upside, a lot easier to trade to the downside. Speaking of downside trades, SanDisk yesterday morning, we called a bearish momentum or called bearish momentum on SanDisk and Micron.
Micron was down about 5% yesterday. SanDisk dumped 11% yesterday. One of the reasons I made that call was, of course, because of the Google research. So, you know, I don't think you know, I'm looking into a crystal ball. I think we're looking at fundamental research and providing this in our alpha report every day before the market opens.
Which remember, you can get that. We've got our next coupon expiring March 31st. You can get that at meetkevin.com. Another thing we called in the alpha yesterday before the market opened up was that VCX was about to collapse. I actually have a $20 price target on it, and it was like $500 yesterday morning.
Well, yesterday, it literally collapsed 50%. 50% just yesterday. So, we made the call right here in the pre-market when it was sitting here at 400 I guess it was What is this? Yeah, 430 bucks, somewhere around there. Okay, fine. So, around 430 bucks off some of those highs we saw in the prior day. Dropped over 50% yesterday down to $182.
It's down another 37% today. And that was a call that we made in pre-market 2 days ago. It's documented. You can go see it. Uh we've done some fundamental work here on IonQ. We exposed some of the truth of the fundamentals of IonQ, some more fundamentals on Lennar, FedEx, Wynn, Supermicro, Rivian, Swarmr.
And we also, once Tesla started losing 400, called for a 347 approach on Tesla. Not great. Trending right towards that. But let's focus for a moment on Iran. What does Mr. Kent say? Kent was the counterterrorism uh assignee, if you will, by Donald Trump, who quit uh after Donald Trump U-turned on his promise of no new wars.
Uh he is vehemently opposed to new wars. Uh and his argument here is that we are setting troops up to be a sitting duck. And given that we're seeing more escalatory moves with actual troop movements, not with what Donald Trump is saying, but with what Donald Trump is doing, this does not look good. things through my enemy's eyes.
And so, if I'm Iran right now, a gift would be having Marines and paratroopers descend or take the beaches of any one of these islands. I don't care which one it is. I would let them come in. And then I I would make it very, very clear that but through the use of of mining, through the use of ballistic missiles, through the use of drone swarms, they are now our hostages.
Um so, this would be a stra- Remember yesterday what we talked about with the FPV fiber optic operated drones? These are now being used in conflicts against Israel in Lebanon by Hezbollah. Hezbollah starting to use them. Obviously popularized in Russia versus Ukraine with the Strait of 20-mile kill zone that we have.
Strait of Hormuz is the perfect width for fiber optic led drones. strategic disaster. Honestly, I think if if the the Iranians are smart, and they are smart, that they would let us take the island, they'd let us like, you know, do a do a victory video about how now we control the refining, and this is checkmate, and the straits are open.
And then I would just show them very, very quickly and strongly that they don't actually control the space. I'd use the drones, use the ballistics that we know that they have. I I think people have really downplayed uh how strong small craft are in war. Uh you know, yesterday, the US CENTCOM, and then following that, Donald Trump, J.D.
Vance, and Marco Rubio were all bragging about how we've taken out 92% or almost all of the Iranian navy. But what the data was was that CENTCOM actually said we've taken out 92% of the large vessels of the Iranian navy. That vast majority, likely, of the small craft, given that they're not bragging about that.
It's the same kind of data we got this morning suggesting we've really only taken out about maybe 1/3 of Iran's missile capacity to launch strikes against us, Israel, or allies in the Gulf. This is totally the opposite of what we were sold. 4 weeks ago, we were sold we're going to obliterate them. This is going to be over so quickly.
in fact it's already over I could declare victory right now if I wanted to. And here we are 4 weeks later and things are getting worse not better and wow we still have substantial capabilities from Iran what a surprise the country that's three times the size of Ukraine and has it over 80 million population is able to withstand our strikes.
Not only that but they maintain their offensive abilities and we've now got a potential readiness of Iran of 1 million Iranian militia and troops via both the besieged combined with the about 180,000 IRGC service members. That's a strong force that 10,000 people even isn't going to do even if you added up all our troops in the region which are about 50 plus to about 10 to 15 that we're sending to region.
We are way outnumbered to the tune of 12 to one. This is a no bueno. And hand or even a more of a disaster is is us committing troops to actually like the the beaches the land on the shores of the Straits of Hormuz inside of Iran because again what what we what they've learned the last 20 plus years is that when we get sucked into these land engagements all they have to do is win by not losing we will eventually bleed out blood and treasure and we will we will get sick of the equation and we will we will simply leave.
So this would be a golden gift to the to the Iranians and I and I pray that President Trump is smart enough not to fall for this trap regardless of who's in his ear. Nancy Mace and other representatives coming out Republican representatives coming out and expressing their their their their skepticism
Skepticism. of this that gives me some hope because all these guys are on the ballot here come November and they know they're going to hear from their voters on this issue. So I think I think people call That's the thing like this really can't last through midterms otherwise it's just going to be the pure shellacking for the Trump administration.
So none of this is great. Now let's go take a peek I want to show you what this individual is suggesting as well but before I do that I just want to quickly shout out my Instagram if you don't follow me there yet go check it out. My Instagram is at meet Kevin. Yesterday I posted that on April 3rd Lego is coming out with the Luigi version of the Mario Kart which is really exciting very excited about that.
But I also posted that someone I wanted this was really nice. Somebody handed Jack a Pokemon tin in the Pokemon store in the Topanga Mall yesterday. Cash cards or whatever they're called. He ended up pulling a $63 card out of that raw which is insane. I mean it really incredible so I mean Jack killed it I had some pretty good pulls yesterday too but boy Pokemon killed it yesterday.
But what's not killing it well our control of oil. So I get back over here. So here's the problem with oil. Basically this guy essentially I'm just going to summarize this for you. Okay he's author authored this piece called the escalation trap. Basically what he says is the United States for over 40 years has been trying to minimize Iran's ability to control oil flows in the Gulf.
Well what we've now done is we've shown that through force we can't actually control the Gulf and guess who actually has control of the Gulf Iran. And so you have really big egg on your face basically in America that exactly what you were trying to avoid you have now accomplished. Iran is in control.
That's not what people wanted it's not the goal and it's quite likely if you combine this with what Joe Kent said that frankly we're not in a great place for actually doing anything with troops in the region taking islands or otherwise other than setting them up to be sitting ducks which is bad. Now another thing to remember is that Donald Trump tore up the Iran nuclear deal the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that Obama negotiated a lot of people say solely because he hates Obama.
That deal limited Iranian uranium enrichment for 15 years and set up 25 year limits on other assets. You also had some Iranian assets returned which that's where people get this misconception that the United States gave billions of dollars to Iran this is sort of a Trump talking point. What it really was was Iranian assets that were seized and the United States said look we'll give you some of these assets back if you agree to weapons inspections and limits.
Donald Trump killed that deal because he said he was going to make a better deal for us. He never made a better deal because in 2018 he couldn't negotiate with Iran he was dealing with China and the Chinese sword initiative steel tariffs steel and aluminum tariffs then COVID hit then Joe Biden came in he tried to make a deal with Iran in fairness also failed right so I'm not here to try to shield Democrats okay I promise you I I dump on politicians equally.
Yesterday I'm in the freaking Pokemon store and these two ladies walk up nice people and they're like Kevin when are you going to run again and I'm like I don't even want to think politics right now okay like I appreciate it but I am so disconnected from politics right now because it is so toxic right now it's so bad right now.
But anyway at least what you had in the 2015 nuclear deal is you had IAEA compliance monitoring of nuclear weapons which now we don't have. So you've basically gone from we know how much enriched uranium you guys have and we know where it is and we can watch what you're doing Iran and there are limits on the heavy water that comes out of your reactors and what you could do with this and we can monitor all this so you don't you know basically store weapons grade plutonium you know byproduct the nuclear process.
Now we've gone from we had all that insight to now we don't have any insight and then you get Donald Trump saying well since we can't see anything we're assuming they have nukes let's attack. It's like we had all the visibility before. You never made a new deal so you kind of screwed us into this which a lot of people say is exactly what Jared Kushner and the Israelis wanted from the get-go.
They set this up BB and the Israelis played the long game and they knew and I'm not I'm not saying anything pro or con Israeli here okay I'm just saying BB played the long game with Trump realized hey if Donald Trump kills the JCPOA eventually the United States is going to lose visibility into those nuclear stockpiles and we're going to have a joint invasion and that's exactly what it seems like we're setting up for now which totally sucks because war sucks.
Anyway go to meetkevin.com utilize that coupon code it's actually coupon code flip flop thanks to Donald Trump's daily flip flopping and you can join that I look forward to seeing you there. Thanks so much goodbye and good &.
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