저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 특정 종목·자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언 없음, 빌 애크먼 투자 체크리스트 8원칙 설명 영상. 빌 애크먼의 투자 체크리스트 8원칙: 단순하고 예측 가능한 사업, 지배적 시장 지위, 외부 위험(통제 불가 리스크) 노출 제한, 잉여현금흐름 창출력, 높은 진입장벽, 우수한 경영진과 거버넌스, 높은 자본수익률, 외부 자본이 필요 없는 강한 재무구조. 찰리 멍거의 체크리스트와 비교: 사업 이해 능력, 지속 가능한 경쟁우위(해자), 정직하고 유능한 경영진, 안전마진을 두고 싸게 살 것. 애크먼 체크리스트는 멍거의 첫 번째 항목(사업 이해)을 '단순하고 예측 가능한 사업'으로 일부 반영한다고 설명. 단순·예측 가능성: 워렌 버핏의 '멍청이도 운영할 수 있을 만큼 단순한 사업'이 언급되며, 복잡한 사업은 하락 시 회복 여부를 판단하기 어렵다고 설명. 치폴레 부리토를 예로 듦. 지배적 시장 지위와 외부 위험: 시장 점유율이 높고 해자가 있어야 하며, 콜라 사례 언급. 중국의 철강 덤핑, 아연 가격 급락, 석탄 관련 입법 리스크 등 통제 불가 외부 위험의 예시 제시. 진행자는 과거 아연 생산 기업 투자에서 손해를 본 경험을 소개. 잉여현금흐름: 순이익의 75%~100% 이상을 현금으로 창출하는 기업이 큰 해자 기업의 신호라고 설명. 치폴레는 외부 차입 없이 자체 현금으로 성장. 진입장벽: 정부 규제에 의한 독점(유틸리티, 통행료 다리형 해자), 전환비용(스위칭 코스트) 등. 애플·마이크로소프트·IBM 등이 예시로 언급되나 구체적 가격 전망은 없음. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 방향성 발언 없음. 장기 투자 원칙 중심의 교육 콘텐츠.
다듬은 글
here's the eight principles um i'm gonna run down all eight of them really quickly and then we'll come back and and take them kind of one by one so in no certain order i've sort of reordered these for my own purposes but in no certain order the business has to be simple and predictable a dominant market position limit exposure to extrinsic risk that we can't control free cash flow generative large barriers to entry excellent management and good governance high return on capital and a strong balance sheet that doesn't need outside capital so those are the eight eight things now when we talk about sort of our checklist what i look at is um the principal things that that we've been talking about on this podcast which is from charlie munger's checklist so to go back to charlie for a second in comparison he basically says four things number one you have to be capable of understanding the business number two it has to have a durable competitive advantage that's intrinsic to the company number three it has to have management with integrity and talent and number four you have to be able to buy it on sale you need a margin of safety now bill's checklist doesn't deal with the first thing that charlie said he doesn't deal with being capable of understanding the business well he does slightly in the first principle which is the business has to be simple and predictable so even one of the smartest guys on the planet besides charlie and warren requires that the businesses be simple and predictable because when he got off into businesses that were a little harder to understand that's where the errors started to creep in not necessarily that he didn't understand them or he wasn't capable of understanding them but that they weren't simple and they weren't predictable and the result is even though you understand them it doesn't mean they're going to keep doing what they've been doing so understanding the business that's that's kind of goes without saying uh on bill's checklist so we're going to sort of put that first thing aside but you have to remember that uh for a professional like ackman that's a no-brainer right you obviously have to understand the business but for amateurs oh man that's where we fall off the the wagon all the time is we fail to realize how shallow we have looked at this business we don't realize how deep we have to go so let's not put that one away permanently let's just remember that bill's a professional doesn't need to remind himself he better understand the business now the second one that charlie talks about is effectively what we call moat that is the business has to have some kind of protective mode around it to keep competition away now what what we talk about when we start to break out the understanding of the business is we talk about the meaning of the business and the mode of the business and these two things could kind of be combined under ackman's view so i'll look at it both ways so for example under what we would consider to be the meaning of the business you know understanding the business would be that it's simple and predictable that you know that it has a dominant market position and it has limited exposure to extrinsic risk so these are three of bill's eight elements so let's talk about each one of them simple and predictable means that the business is something that i mean one way to think about it is something that an idiot could run it i mean once it's got itself going you know you you don't want an idiot to run it but warren once said you want so simple that an idiot could run it because someday an idiot will and you want the business to survive the idiot so you can't have a business that's super complicated or you end up with a real difficult investment decision down the road if this business starts to falter then you don't know will it be recovering or will it require genius to get it back on on track so simple and predictable for me is something like chipotle burritos you guys know that from listening to this thing all right next thing dominant market position that means that this company has already done something that protects it from competition it is already has some sort of moat around it that lets it dominate its competition that means it controls the majority of this market or it's a very dominant piece of this market majority control is very rare out there usually there's two or three companies that have the total market control but dominance can be 20 30 percent of the market 40 of the market so when you think about colas and you think about a coca-cola and a pepsi there's a lot of other colas out there a lot of other kinds of drinks but those are the dominant guys in that industry and that's there because they have some sort of a moat so dominant market position is what we would put in trying to understand the business properly we need to know how well that stacks up and a couple of ways you can look at it dominant market position can be the biggest revenues in the market it could be although we don't lean heavily on that we could say yeah it's dominant and then we want to look of course at uh at other things in terms of understanding how good a business it is and then finally limited exposure to extrinsic risk that we can't control so an extrinsic risk that we can't control is something like a commodity business where china decides to just dump steel into the world uh into the world market it's an extrinsic risk that they might do that and we have no control over that if they decide to do it they can crush steel prices i invested in a company a while back where i really really got burned and it was a company that was the dominant producer of zinc in the united states and had by far the best cost position so it had a price moat and that price mode didn't matter when a big commodity buyer and a holder of commodities like copper and gold and silver a great big one just decided in order to shore up its cash position to dump zinc on the market and it dropped the price of zinc from a dollar 10 to about 60 cents all during the time this company was having other problems and that extrinsic risk that we couldn't control ended up shoving that company into a chapter 11 bankruptcy so extrinsic risk that could also be legislative risk if you're a coal company and the legislatures are going to they're going to make huge barriers to you to produce your coal then you have extrinsic risk you can't control it you may not want to be in that kind of a business so those three things simple and predictable dominant market position limited exposure to extrinsic risk those are part of understanding the business are you capable of understanding this business do you know where it sits in its industry do you know that it can avoid extrinsic risk to the degree that are reasonable and is it simple and predictable now we go on to the next thing that bill asks us to look at which is that it's free cash flow generative and we consider this to be a major sign of a big moat business big moat business very very good at producing cash flow and that means that it's producing cash flow in my view uh with at least 75 percent of earnings and ideally at 100 of earnings or more so that all virtually all of the money coming through the company is not sort of artificial earnings it's not sort of you know it we have earnings on our on our income statement we don't have any cash it is actually a cash generating business it doesn't it doesn't require a lot of money to just keep it going um so free cash flow generative that's one of the things i loved about chipotle it's just a cash machine produces a lot of cash they're able to build their business entirely out of their free cash never have to borrow money to do it the second thing the bill asks us about or that we put into the moat this is his fifth principle is large barriers to entry this is a classic definition of moat that they have the company has taken on a niche position and there are large barriers to entry so what are those large barriers to entry well um let's think about some of them one really big one is that there are no other businesses in this business because of of government regulations so this is what utilities experience as a kind of a moat which is what we call a toll bridge mode utilities are basically set up to have quasi-governmental control of their market and um and so very unusual one of those utilities has real problems like pacific gas and electric adam in california is an amazing experience of a utility going bankrupt a couple of times which has more to do with the legislature of california and their wishful thinking about what they can regulate uh in terms of the costs of energy um than anything else and then even then bad management although certainly badge management management is part of it so large barriers to entry um those are our typical moats so let's go down a couple more of them a switching mode makes it very difficult for companies to come in and compete with me if if i've locked up my client totally by having back room control this would be what emphasis and and ibm and microsoft have large barriers to entry apple uh has a similar thing switching mode very difficult to exit their ecosystem without a complete big deal change of software in the whole deal guys if you enjoyed this video and you feel it was valuable and teaching you more about how to invest hit the like button and please share the video with your friends and if you want more investing content subscribe to my channel and don't forget to click the button on the screen we got a free gift for you thanks again for watching you
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