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워런 버핏·찰리 멍거식 투자 원칙(이해 가능한 사업, 지속 가능한 경쟁우위, 신뢰할 경영진, 안전마진)을 실제 체크리스트로 풀어 설명하는 팟캐스트 대담이다. 핵심 원칙 중 '단순하고 예측 가능한 사업'이 이해 가능성의 핵심이라고 강조하며, 오만(자신이 다 이해할 수 있다는 착각)을 경계한다. 체크리스트 항목으로 ①단순·예측 가능한 사업 ②잉여현금흐름 창출 ③지배적 시장 지위 ④높은 진입장벽 ⑤높은 투하자본수익률(ROIC) ⑥외부자본 없이 생존하는 강한 재무구조가 제시된다. 지배적 지위는 니치 시장에서의 지배력과 잉여현금흐름 비교로 판단할 수 있고, 스프라우트 마켓(유기농 식품 저가 유통망)과 코카콜라(브랜드 장벽)가 사례로 언급된다. 진입장벽은 판단이 어렵고 시간에 따라 바뀔 수 있다는 점이 강조되며, 백과사전 사업이 인터넷으로 무너진 사례가 예로 든다. ROIC·ROE는 10년 이상 데이터로 두 자릿수가 지속되는지 확인하는 것이 가장 먼저 보는 지표라고 설명한다. 부채가 없고 현금흐름이 큰 기업이 높은 자본수익률로 이어진다는 점을 언급하며 영상을 마무리한다. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
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i mean we've done five years of podcasts around the basic principles that charlie outlined which are you know make sure you understand the business it's got a durable competitive advantage it's got management you trust and you buy out the margin of safety all right but if you're not careful these things just become words and yeah that's a great point soon you're not really attentive to what it means to be able to understand the business so what and i think that happened to bill honestly i think it happens to everybody well it i think it makes a lot of sense it's actually human nature because you're right they do turn into just words and then you start thinking about all the details of what goes into those four principles as we've done like crazy so i i really like it that he's he's made it clearer what charlie means by being able to understand the business by number one principle that it's simple and predictable yeah and that is actually better for us we we like that better than are we capable of understanding because hubris can creep right in there man it's like of course we are we're smart yeah also a great point yeah you're experienced i've been doing this for 40 years sir i am capable of understanding just about anything absolutely yeah but is it simple oh well hmm maybe not so but i'm so smart that i'm capable of understanding yeah no you're right that's such a trap absolutely simple and predictable those two things are so powerful just just remember those two things and go back to chipotle mexican grill listen a simple predictable business that's so powerful i'm going to give ackman a huge credit for that and and it means what it says i mean i don't have to really say anything about it it just means that yeah and it covers two actually covers both of those first ones from buffett and munger capable of to me it does capable of understanding and having a durable intrinsic competitive advantage could be boiled down into predictable yep and it gets boiled down to the next thing which is the second principle which is free cash flow generative it's just this thing's producing free cash flow that is a huge um symptom of moat if you will right you see huge cash flow you're seeing a moat of some sort now whether it's durable right that's that becomes a really critical thing and that's number three that it's dominating it's a dominant market position so i i gotta tell you this you can really get squirrely around that one i was gonna say that's one that that that is difficult for people who are interested in newer companies in more up and coming companies sure they're not dominant yet right right but you think they will be right or companies have been around a long time and have and here's where i get i get a little bit um off is that i i look at a company that's dominating a niche and and say ah dominant market position they're in a they're in this little niche and they can control that um and and keep everybody out of it for some reason right for some some way that's structured intrinsically into the business they can keep people out of it like it's sprouts market they've just have a dominant niche in buying organic food super cheap because they have a regional distribution system where their regional guy has got authority to go out and make deals with farmers and it's very difficult for a large group like whole foods at amazon now or a chain like kroger's or publix to do that they they're not going to give a regional guide that kind of authority they want to centralize everything to keep their prices down yeah are you saying that that's a useful way to think about it or that's a way that you've gotten in trouble with no it's very useful to think about a niche in terms of of its dominance so that and then you can see it by comparing its free cash flow generation to those other companies i mean if this is a really good niche it's going to generate a lot of free cash flow when other companies maybe won't and in fact sprouts does do that enormously free cash flow generative okay then the fourth one which helps you with your dominant market position and your free cash flow and is also very mode is large barriers to entry now this this is not easy here guys large barriers to entry you know how do you know that a company has a large does tesla have a large barrier to entry or not maybe i mean i would say that there's different ones like for example a very high capital intensive industry that requires a lot of money to get into the game i would call that a large barrier to entry or it's a lot of like the modi stuff you know or something a a business or an area where um everybody just buys the standard brand so like coca-cola is a fantastic example of that it's very hard to get into the what do you call that what does pepsi call distribution no but like what do you call like the dark cola that coke and pepsi both are there's some name for that i don't know i don't know um so if you want to make a dark cola and that's the niche that you're trying to get into it's gonna be really hard to get into that one because they've got the market yeah and they've got the market because they spend a tremendous amount of money and have for a hundred years on branding so they've got a piece of your head i don't and and the way the product tastes right is also you get a certain addiction yeah exactly and that's what you want i i want a coke i don't drink pepsi i don't even like pepsi right so so i don't like to go to taco bell even though i like tacos because they don't have cokes yeah right so i'll go eat crap let me just say for the benefit of the audience is 100 true and annoying when you want to have fast food of a certain type and you're in one car together it is so true yeah so um large buried entry is massively important and it's really easy to to make an error here particularly if the business isn't simple right yeah so you if you don't know what the barrier to entry is just assume that it's too hard the the company's too hard to move on and i gotta know it for me this is a place of really thinking about what is the future bringing down for this industry or this niche in this industry what kind of barriers aren't going to exist in five years and i'm thinking about the wrong stuff this is like one of those i'm selling encyclopedias question and it's really hard to get into making encyclopedias because you have to have such a great process of people to write them and then you have to have printers and you have to just have distribution it's a really great business with really high barriers to entry yep until nobody wants an encyclopedia all of a sudden right because everything's on the internet yeah 100 true large barriers to entry so figure that out that's super key um and this next one is super easy i mean free cash flow is super easy because you can just look it up and you can see it right there high return on capital also super easy just look it up it's right there on on every website so that's the next one oh no wait that's the second that's the next one yeah high return on capital so that thing is more also is a symptom of a deeper cause it's a symptom of a good moat if somebody's got a high return on capital they're making you 20 a year on your on your uh borrowed money and your equity in your company man they got something going on that's fabulous if they're doing that year after year after year after year in fact when i'm looking at a company danielle that is the absolute first thing i look at what is it absolutely i love process info first thing double digit return on capital return on equity if i don't see double digits there if i'm seeing 8.3 right or something like that i'm looking at at least 10 years of data all at once um which i why on on the toolbox i've got now got 30 years of data so i can look at it really quickly and see cool if these guys are double-digit return on equity and return on capital for 30 years like coca-cola is oh okay they've got a huge moat there's got to be a moat there i just got to figure out what it is hopefully it's simple enough that i can so high return on capital massively important now i'm going to jump one we'll come back to that to the number six but number seven is they don't need outside capital to survive that's a strong balance sheet what that means is they don't have debt let's just boil that down to that they don't have debt and they got a lot of free cash flow and those two things no debt high free cash flow almost inevitably mean high return on capital so if they don't have a lot of debt i do think that saying that equals no debt isn't necessarily the way he means it it's close like it could be that they're leveraging with debt for good reason but they have the funds to pay it off and it's not a big deal you know something like that you guys if you enjoyed this video and you feel it was valuable and teaching you more about how to invest hit the like button and please share the video with 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