저자: PhilTown · 외국인
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결론: 미국 주식시장은 거대한 버블이며 폭락이 임박했다는 Jeremy Grantham 견해를 Phil Town이 지지하고, 현금 보유와 매수 목록 준비를 권한다. 그랜섬의 버블 진단: 미국 주식은 '멋진(magnificent) 버블'이며 1929년 대폭락·2000년 닷컴 붕괴보다 더 극단적이라고 주장. 일본 1989년 버블보다는 작다고 평가. 주택·채권 등 자산 전반: 미국 주택 가격/가구소득 배수가 2006년 주택 버블 정점보다 높고, 호주·캐나다·영국·홍콩·상하이 등 전 세계적 주택 버블로 봄. 해외 주식은 정상적 강세장 수준이라고 평가. 중국 부동산: 한 대형 개발사의 부채 3,700억 달러 등 중국 부동산 채무 문제가 중국 증시를 끌어내리고 있다고 언급. 약 5조 달러 자산이 회수되지 못할 수 있다는 추정 제시. 채권: 금리 저점·채권 가격 고점 상태로 본 '6,000년 만의 고점' 진단. 금리 상승 시 채권 가격 급락(대형 채권 붕괴) 가능성 경고. 구조적 원인: 전 자산이 유럽·미국 등 중앙은행 개입으로 부풀려졌고, 이 불안정한 상태가 오래 지속되기 어렵다고 봄. Phil Town 견해: 버블이 언제 꺼질지는 불확실하나 조건은 충족되었다고 판단. 2020년 6월 이후 S&P500 약 42% 상승 언급. 대응책으로 현금 대기, 좋은 기업 매수 목록 준비, 미국 외 저평가 시장 검토 제시. 리스크: 폭락 시점 예측 불가, 하루 또는 1년 내 발생 가능. 영상 자체는 특정 종목 매수 추천 없음.
다듬은 글
all right guys i'm phil town from real one investing and today i want to talk to you guys about why jeremy grantham says u.s stocks are in a magnificent bubble we've been discussing this a lot man the u.s stocks are in a gigantic bubble and legendary investor jeremy grantham says it's even crazier than the great market crash of 1929 that preceded the great depression if that didn't get your attention you probably don't have any money in the stock market in a recent interview on cnbc grantham said that the end of the stock market bubble is kind of like killing off a vampire and we are headed for a major crash so i want to take a look at this interview with you guys and then just give you my thoughts so let's dig in i spoke with investor and gmo co-founder jeremy grantham about the state of the market which he's been warning about of course for quite some time i began by asking him about his most recent comments uh that we had dangerously overpriced assets in the us and if he thinks we're in the biggest bubble he's witnessed in his entire career it's not as big as japan in 89 but it's bigger than anything in the u.s and that's partly because it includes real estate bonds of course stocks and commodities they're they're all overpriced by the way let me stop this clip right there when grantham says that it's it's not as big as japan you may not be aware this but the japanese stock market dropped and stayed down for almost 20 years uh from that point so that's a really serious accusation right there that it's it's in the ballpark of japan not as big as japan maybe it won't last as long but certainly gigantic okay let's go on oh and also by the way grantham's worth listening to you because he called the 2000 crash the 2007 crash and he's really good at long-term investing so take take a listen and what kind of metrics give you confidence that that is the case well pretty well every metric you could use the house price is a multiple family income which is higher today than it was at the peak of the housing bubble in 06 and it's even higher than the us in australia canada england hong kong shanghai you name it this is a global housing bubble more housing than equities it's more global the bubble in housing than equities equities is magnificent a magnificent bubble in the u.s but strangely overseas it's merely a routine bull market it's overpriced but no big deal but real estate is i'm going to stop jeremy right there for a quick second um because he was talking about the massive housing bubble that we're in right now being bigger than it was in 2007 and we got this amazing freeze-up in assets that that created a gigantic drop in real estate we won't see that again right we're fighting a different battle this time what's going on now around the world that grantham's talking about is that housing bubble in china is just massive one of their major developers found themselves with 370 billion dollars of debt that they couldn't pay this is more money out the door than exists in both bank of america and i think usb or wells fargo combined um gigantic amount of debt and it's just one of many developers in china there's several trillion i think the latest ballpark number was five trillion dollars of of assets that may not ever get paid back in china and so that market is starting to react to that now it's one of the things that's bringing down chinese stocks so we don't know how it's going to come about but we know that things have to reset let's go ahead and hear about the stock market but real estate is magnificently overpriced almost everywhere that has a real estate market that counts and the bond market of course is as jim graham would say at a 6 000 year high in terms of low interest rates and high bond prices by the way if that makes you seem that sounds a little strange that with interest rates very very low bond prices are very very high it's it's essentially what happens when you try to sell a bond that you own so if you put ten thousand dollars into a u.s treasury bond and they're paying you one percent you're getting you're getting a hundred dollars a year um and if interest rates go up to five percent then everybody's getting 500 a year on that same bond so your bond instead of being worth ten thousand is now worth two thousand in order to produce that same five hundred dollars at one percent so as bond prices go down bond interest rates go down those bonds are more and more valuable and if bond prices go up they become less and less valuable and that's why uh the potential here is for a gigantic bond crash so essentially that's i mean the setup which is that all the major asset groups are massively overpriced they have been jacked up aggressively by federal central bank intervention across the world both in europe and in the united states and other countries and in order to avoid depression or recession and the end result here is that they are very unlikely to stay in this extremely tenuous position extremely tenuous so i think grantham's got a real point and that is that you know if it can't keep going up then it's going to go down and we should be ready for that so let's take a look at when this magnificent bubble that jeremy's talking about of course he's tongue-in-cheek magnificent is very scary um when's this thing going to implode and how can we be ready for when this thing burst right you joined me on closing bell in mid-june of 2020 and called it then the fourth of rallied pretty strong since then 42 for the s p 500 since that interview so you knew it was going to be the real mccoy last year you didn't know if it was going to break next wednesday or a year later but one by one we've checked off every condition that a that a glorious bubble needs in in in terms of crazy behavior this has been crazier uh by a substantial margin than 1929 and 2000 in my opinion so uh we've we've met all of those conditions so any time now you can go and the end of a of a bubble is like uh killing off a vampire okay so when's this magnificent bubble gonna crash right that that's pretty much the big question there uh jeremy certainly defined that and he can't say when it's going to crash so as his commentator said things went up 40 since jeremy made the first call so what do we do i mean one of the things that we're going to cover when you finally get around to taking our workshop is what to do if you're sitting in the market right now with certain tools that you can use that they can't use as institutional investors because they're too big but they're very effective in getting you out if you're sitting in mutual funds or etfs before the next crash fully happens and that's important secondly what do you do if you're already a solid rule one investor you do what warren buffett's doing you do what i do and you do what good investors are doing and that is you're waiting in cash with a list of companies that you can't wait to buy when they go on sale i'd say that's pretty important and secondly uh jeremy goes on at other interviews to suggest that you take a look at companies that are on sale and if they're not in the united states be willing to take a look other places but the primary criteria right here is to get yourself into cash and just be prepared by knowing what you want to buy for when the market may crash it could happen in a day it could happen in a year i don't know and to get at that i would say a good place to start is my stock market survival guide you should you should take a look at that right away if you haven't already so now i'd love to hear from you guys what are your thoughts about jeremy's interview and are we headed you know toward a crash of this magnificent bubble what do you think so leave a comment below with your answer i'll be sure to follow up with you and thanks for watching now go play hey if you enjoyed this video and you feel it was valuable in teaching you more about the current stock market bubble hit the like button 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