저자: Kevin · 외국인
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코로나 확진자 급증으로 주 경제 재개가 흔들리고 있어, 고용지표보다 확진/검사 추이가 더 중요하다는 주장. 실업수당 $600 연장 및 2차 부양책은 7월 25일 만료 위험으로 의회 조치가 시급하다고 봄. 1.4억 달러의 부양금이 사망자에게 지급된 사례, 래리 커들로의 V자 회복 주장(그는 회의적), 연준 스트레스 테스트 발표 예정 등을 다룸. 변동성 장세에서 공포 시 매수 및 특정 증권 계좌 가입 홍보.
다듬은 글
ne 25th I got rid of that hat from this morning so welcome back to normal Kevin with that messed up haircut the outbreak is going to be the single biggest determinant states that we're likely to see more state quarantines in response to the growing case counts in many states within the country yesterday we had our highest daily increases that's June 24th through the entire day yesterday was the highest daily increase in case counts that we have had in the country and Scott says that even though it looks like we're around for about 40,000 cases per day we probably have around 200,000 cases per day in our country right now because only about 1 in 5 to 8 actually get tested and diagnosed that means we could really see substantially more cases and more spread especially as testing ramps up this comes at the same time as Donald Trump is looking to withdraw or close down federal testing sites put that burden onto States despite the fact that states are complaining that they are out of money and are having to prepare to lay off more staff now this means that the actual outbreak again might be worse than it is right now and we might get even worse data over the next month or two which why that's important and related to stimulus is because there are a lot of folks talking about stimulus whether it's in the news or on YouTube about how important the next jobs report is going to be for the next round of stimulus people are saying mark your calendars for next week I respectfully and highly disagree when you lose 23 million jobs it's usually pretty easy to add back the first half of those that is the first 11 million are going to come back generally fast but what really matters for our recovery and the economy is the second half the second half of those job losses and I mean think about that for a moment we could literally see job reports for the next few months every month going yay we've added two million jobs and even if we added two million jobs for the next three months you'd still have 50 ten million people unemployed due to the pandemic HEC next month's job report could say hey in June we added six million jobs yay biggest growth ever well yeah but that's because we just lost 23 million jobs and we'd still have 65% of the people who lost those jobs unemployed from this kovat crisis so in my opinion the jobs report is not the data to look at instead kovat cases are exactly what we should be paying attention to and the increasing rounds of testing that will be seeing especially if states have to start taking over testing are they going to increase testing are they going to drop the ball because they don't have any money and stop testing what happens with testing and what happens in states is going to be much more important than looking at a backwards looking jobs report in fact today we had some unemployment data come in that showed that actually more people filed for unemployment than expected one point four eight million people filed for unemployment verse 1.3 million who were expected to file for unemployment now maybe that extra amount of people are the folks who were watching my YouTube videos where I suggest that if you have not yet applied for unemployment and do so because you can get retroactive pay but you have to apply before the unemployment pay expires which by the way the $600 per week of unemployment pay at least according to the USA Today today might actually end up expiring as soon as July 25th because the way the cares Act is written is such that you're not supposed to get any kind of unemployment pay beyond July 31st and unemployment is usually paid on a Friday so because of the way the calendar Falls July 25th might actually be the last day that people receive the sort of $600 boost which does put more urgency on Congress to act and renew this unemployment especially with how many people continue to go on to unemployment and how few jobs relative to what we lost were actually gaining back but always remember all of the data that's coming out regarding jobs is backwards looking and right now we've got the governor of Texas suggesting that well while we might not shut down again we might pause the reopening at the same time as Apple is closing a7 Houston stores because of a spike in cases and at the same time as the Governor of California is saying we might have to quote revert back to the previous shutdown that we had thanks to the spiking happening so paying attention to the outbreak is much more important in my opinion than paying attention to job stata all of this anxiety by the way is also creating anxiety in the stock market which is why you have these crazy turbulent opportunities to buy stocks on read days today for example is a Green Day now I still encourage you to open up a weeble account use that somebody mentioned when they signed up they got an offer that if they deposited like ten to twenty five thousand dollars they'd get anywhere between ten to twenty five bonus stocks worth up to fourteen hundred dollars so I guess there are a bunch of bonus offers going around too once you're actually in use that link down below it to join but anyway if you have and this is a good rule of thumb if you have that feeling of fear on a day like yesterday where a lot of things were read today a lot of things are green that's usually a good sign that you're in the right place to buy remember buy on those fearful days by the moments of fear and just do that consistently and hold on to the companies that you love the federal government accidentally sent 1.4 billion dollars of stimulus money to dead people yesterday we talked about the federal government sending money to people in jail and then trying to get that money back and now we have a new tally that 1.4 billion dollars of stimulus checks went to folks who are no longer alive now technically that money is supposed to be returned to the IRS it's unclear how they will enforce let's say family members depositing those checks into let's say the people who passed away into their trust and then redeeming that money from theirs if for themselves it's unclear what the IRS is going to do about that but it is technically owed back to the IRS in other news Larry Kudlow the director of the National Economic Council and pretty much one of Donald Trump's right-hand spokespeople says that the odds of a strong v-shaped recovery are still there he cites quote very strong new business applications and says that 80% of small businesses have already reopened and therefore we can clearly see the V and that's his quote see the V this is despite Macy's cutting about three percent of their entire workforce today about 3900 jobs and saying that there are going to emerge from this pandemic significantly smaller Larry Kudlow goes on to say that he believes we're going to see a snap back in quarter three quarter four and have a great 2021 although this may be politically inspired after all we do have an election coming huh now I also wanted to clarify some things about the trip act I mentioned that yesterday is the first kind of written version of the four thousand dollar exploreamerica Tax Credit the trip Act would actually allow you to take a tax credit dollar for dollar of your travel expenses outside of 50 miles of wherever you live so for example let's say you book a hotel 50 miles away because I don't know you drive to Disneyland whenever it finally reopens and you book a hotel down there and you spend a thousand bucks at Disneyland and at the hotel so you wanted to go you would actually get a tax credit for that thousand dollars if this Act passed the exploreamerica tax credit would say if you spent a thousand dollars you'd only get 50% as a tax credit now obviously any time you deal with taxes it's always good to check with your but this act is better as much as we don't plan on traveling right now it is even better than we had originally thought but I guess even when a bad things better it doesn't make it less bad I don't know if that makes any sense anyway The Wall Street Journal had a huge article today about a lot of fraud in the PPP and so this might lead to more audits in the world of the PPP especially the more the media reports on it so heads up keep your books tight if you took PPP money now regarding the timing of the next stimulus check remember that yes Congress is on recess between July 3rd and July 17th however always remember this when Congress is not in session it just means the Senators are not at Capitol Hill however a lot of senators take this time to go do interviews to negotiate deals to meet with people to meet with their constituents to do their election campaigning whatever so expect a lot of news about the next rounds of stimulus especially during that July 3rd to July 17th period so that way when they go back to Congress hopefully we already have an idea as to what they're going to actually negotiate at Capitol Hill finally expect a big update from the Federal Reserve on the bank stress tests at 4:30 p.m.
Eastern Standard Time today and this is basically when the Fed says how stable our banks are and whether or not we might actually see another financial crisis now the Fed has already indicated that they might not reveal as much information as normal which is kind of weird that they might be hiding I shouldn't use the word hiding because that implies deceit but they might not be disclosing as much about the banks as they usually do and this is leading a lot of professors and economists to call for full disclosure again those stress tests come out at a 1:30 a p.m.
Pacific Standard Time or 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time and I'll be sure to report on those so hopefully you enjoyed this update please consider subscribing to the channel share it we'll see you next time get those two free stocks and your life insurance link down below those links are really awesome life insurance super easy to sign up for as well at least get a quote see how much it cost you see you folks thanks bye
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