저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥과 필라델피아 반도체지수가 동조해 상승 중이며 수익권 투자자가 많다고 진단. 숏 포지션은 휩쏘 위험으로 비추천, 이번 주 목요일~금요일 무렵 매도(수익실현) 타이밍 고려를 권고. 금리(10년물 4%, 2년물 4.8~5%) 상승 시 하락 전환 가능성을 경고하며 과열된 감정적 대응을 경계. TQQQ·SOXL·FNGU 추세는 양호하나 조정 시 이전 매수 구간이 지지선이 될 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
. The Nasdaq rose 1.53% yesterday, while the QQQ and SOXX rose slightly higher by 1.7% and 3.2%, respectively— meaning semiconductor stocks rose by over 3%. Also, since SOXX sometimes fell more significantly when the market declined, I have always said that the Nasdaq and the Philadelphia Indices are bound to move similarly; in other words, their trends move similarly.
Therefore, I have advised that there is no need to sell just because the Nasdaq has dropped significantly while you are in a good position, and that SOXX may actually move slightly more lagging behind the Nasdaq. So, looking at it from that perspective, the index has risen in this manner. However, as I have repeatedly emphasized, taking a short position at this timing is not helpful.
This is because it is much easier to push prices up than down right now. The more short positions there are, the more likely it is that whipsaws will occur—moving out all positions through movements like yesterday's. And actually... When a decline occurs, it is so brief and intense that it is difficult to pinpoint the timing for realizing profits in the current market situation.
So, I think it would be good to keep that in mind. What I want to convey in this video today is that the fact that the index has risen this high means there is a high probability that many of you are in a profit zone. If you are not seeing much profit right now, there is n't much I can say about that in today's video.
So, the fact that there are people currently making profits means that you have been investing well. Now, you are bound to have a lot of concerns about when to realize your profits. So, let me give you a little tip on that today. First, regarding last week, I mentioned that it would be better to hold on.
When we buy stocks, what I have learned from investing over the past year or the year before is that if you buy during a positive trend, the first priority is to pick out good stocks. There are certain sectors or stocks that rise during those periods. So, rather than saying you must hold on for a long time no matter what, this point is absolutely the most important.
You must be able to pick out good stocks, and in my case... Recently, most of the stocks I personally invest in or recommended for the membership regarding US stocks have risen by nearly 40%. Yesterday, another stock emerged that went up 12%. So, first of all, you need to select good stocks. Once you have chosen a good stock, the second step is to hold onto it.
This part is quite difficult. Since most people tend to struggle to hold stocks for more than two weeks, I want to emphasize that you need to be able to hold onto them for at least two to three weeks to achieve a return of over 30%—unless it is a stock experiencing a massive surge. Therefore, looking at the index itself, I would suggest that now that a full-scale rise is underway, it might be advisable to enter a profit-taking phase.
So, for those managing the overall display market, it is time to consider selling around this Thursday or Friday. However, even if the index trends downwards slightly, there will naturally be sectors or individual stocks that rise. But regarding how to invest in such situations—specifically when investing in stocks that are moving inversely to the index—I keep emphasizing that your weighting needs to be adjusted.
So, for now, please set your mindset in that way this week. If you frame it as a time when you might need to realize your gains at some point, and then establish a plan to adjust your position size accordingly, it can be a relatively safe investment. Since there are many people who think similarly to me, as you can see, stocks like VIX are doing a little bit.
Yesterday, it rose by 1.5%, so why do you think VIX spiked? Right? You should view this as us approaching a routine phase where short-term corrections are likely to occur. You can consider that the sentiment of many people is currently reflected in this area. That is why more people have entered puts, but in my opinion, even so, putting in puts right now is not very helpful.
If another 3% rise occurs tomorrow, or if another 24% rise happens the day after tomorrow, the return expected by those who held puts will have already been shattered, resulting in a -20% loss. In that case, even if a correction starts, there is actually a probability that it will end at 20%. Since the correction point itself can keep rising in an uptrend, I want to emphasize that it is essential to consider these factors.
In the case of Nvidia, it rose a little yesterday as well. In the case of Tesla, the trend is still alive. Now, Nvidia has entered a zone where it could slightly turn around, and in the case of Apple as well, ultimately, neither stock has managed to surpass its previous high. In other words, the inflow came in because the market performed well.
Tesla also has good energy following its gap-up, so it can still go a bit further. Therefore, even if you plan to watch this week or next week, it can still push forward, but I would advise that the time is coming when you should start thinking about timing your sell. So, various stocks are still showing a good trend.
However, what we need to watch now is that the rate of return itself is rising significantly. This means there is a possibility that this could act as a source of instability. Also, while interest rates are not having as much impact as before, if they reach a stage where we need to pay attention—for example, if the 10-year yield surpasses 4% again, or if the 2-year yield rises above 4.78 or 4.8%—then energy could shift back toward interest rates.
In other words, it seems this rally itself will not last very long, but interest rates are now almost 4%, especially If the yield on 2-year bonds reaches as high as 5%, it means energy could shift back in that direction, potentially leading to a decline. However, as if by magic, bad news is bound to break at that exact timing.
So, while we prepare for these aspects, I think it would be best not to get carried away by the festive atmosphere. What I always emphasize in my videos is that we shouldn't overreact. Right? If you get excited because it goes up a little, or panic because it goes down a little, there is a high probability that those who are overreacting are currently recording losses in the market.
Recording losses after such a rise means you overreacted excessively, so I think it is necessary to invest with a bit more gravity. Selling out of excitement because it's going up, then shorting because it's going down, or talking about a crisis coming even as it rises—there are many people calling themselves experts, but honestly, how can doing that make you an expert?
Anyway, we need to at least learn to acknowledge how the market flows. I consider this point very important. If you predicted it would go down but it goes up, I believe it is right to ponder why it is rising. Your certainty It does n't make sense for it to go up just to maintain a bias. I went through that process myself, and during the transition from a bear market back to a bull market, I often made half-circles.
Since overcoming and conquering that is ultimately the destiny of the market, I believe that, as I mentioned today, the time is coming for you to observe the market with a cool and neutral mindset to catch the selling timing. So, TQ, FNGU, and SOXL are all showing good trends, and even if a correction occurs, the upper point where you previously invested could potentially become a resistance line.
As I have repeatedly mentioned, this zone could become a support line rather than resistance. The basic principle in stocks is that previous resistance turns into support once broken through. Therefore, even if we short here, if this becomes support, it is not worth the risk we take just to profit. So, now is not the time to get carried away with joy, nor is it the time to fall into pessimism.
First and foremost, the most important thing is to protect cash, determine the correct direction for our investments, and how much I [deal with] various voices—even the noise I make. I believe it is important whether you can effectively filter out even the noise and turn it into your own principles.
Therefore, I will end today's video here. The reason I haven't been filming frequently lately is that the more videos I film, the higher the probability of me spouting nonsense. What I mean is, because I have to force myself to speak, I judged that the likelihood of nonsense tends to increase. That is why I have reduced the number of videos I provide to you, both in general and for membership.
Instead, I simply check the trends on a weekly basis and focus on my own investments. As a result, everything has improved overall. If you respond based on broad principles rather than scrutinizing individual stocks, you can see more profit and, above all, invest with a more at ease. I am just sharing this based on my personal experience, and with that, I will wrap up today's video.
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