저자: Kevin · 외국인
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다듬은 글
everyone be Kevin here okay so some people were reading into my last video that had the words sold in the title and they're like oh my gosh here's Mr fudster Kevin oh my gosh here's Mr flip flop traitor Kevin who sells everything again uh so what I thought in this video is I would do a portfolio update after having paid taxes which was a big F and a big L depending on how you look at it actually it's probably both but anyway uh first I wanted to mention a few things about sort of my thesis on the market because I think some folks think that uh you maybe embarrassed when I'm not because I really am not I mean here come come with me so first of all here here are the negative catalysts that we have the yield curve inverted for literally like 36 hours okay big deal who cares we've got a rising 10-year uh this is uh this is a problem mostly in my opinion for Real Estate but real estate eventually will trickle to the consumer see the consumer might still be strong today and this is this is the biggest problem okay so whether you're a bear or a bull this is a sincere problem the consumer is uh not certain to be uh forever confident if home values fall now 66 of individuals maybe 64 of individuals are homeowners so you've got that other like 35 36 percent but a lot of people are homeowners home values start falling people start spending less money it's a problem I suspect though that people won't necessarily just overall spend less money I think people will spend less money on their homes which impacts Lowe's Home Depot and end phase and solar and companies like that right I actually personally think that in addition to supply chain issues that could be potentially one of the issues we're seeing slower solar deployments at solar but that might be a reach that's to come stay tuned uh and and I mentioned as well in January that this is we're going to see a rotation to Consumer stables and commodities and that's what we've seen now I'm personally not a big fan of investing Commodities because you know that I like being able to take the opportunity of buying the dip in my Longs and I don't actually like trading that much I like buying more of my lawn so these are issues housing's an issue the PPI huge disaster and we know the PPI the CPI we know these vastly understate the actual inflation we're seeing I mean just consider CPI for example you've got the fact that we use owner's equivalent rents which is literally like a survey of homeowners like hey how much do you think you could rent your property for it's like the stupidest thing ever because it way likes and first of all we know rents have done this while home prices have done this so it's like uh duh obviously we're going to have a huge CPI differential there that's a massive lighting indicator but uh then we also have this this stay-at-home issue Shopify Etsy Netflix these are all stocks that I don't own I've previously owned Etsy I used to love Etsy but as I've said I've rotated out of consumer discretionaries because it's not the place to be right now and I'm investing more in sort of the upper echelon of consumer discretionaries which I consider Tesla really and eventually I think it'll be a stable but anyway stay at home is obviously getting wrecked I mean we saw the Netflix numbers we don't have to go through it again and we know we have these really ugly catalysts I mean if you really add one over here you have uh April 18th which uh was tax day I mean I paid nine and a half million dollars of taxes it's it's ridiculous that saps purchasing power I mean if at the end of last year I you know bought a big property or bought a plane or something stupid I could have paid no taxes and I would have had more money to invest in the market right but most people pay their taxes on me too uh and so unfortunately that's what I do but anyway now we've got earnings and unfortunately we're led by a bank earnings which were good we were led by uh Procter Gamble which was good and Tesla which was honestly unfathomably amazing I cannot believe Tesla's not only growing at 50 but it's projected now thanks to Elon although he has Rosy projections it's been potentially be growing at a 60 clip and you have increasing margins in in this sort of environment insane but anyway uh earnings are potentially an issue and we're led by this this Miss on stay at home but I think we're going to see more misses on state home and this really creates questions like honestly Disney is probably one of those stocks I don't think I can do it upside down question mark but anyway is one of the stocks where it's like I don't know I mean like their parks are probably going to kill it but Disney plus could be a total loser right we have no idea so big big you know potential like I don't know over at Disney right because of Netflix but anyway you've got the fomc meeting on May 4th you've got jobs data coming out six you've got CPI data coming out on May 11th and then what do you have in between here come on folks May 9th is v-day Victory Day I mean you've got a sh-9t show coming up of catalyst it's terrible you I mean like come on earnings either come in acceptable and they meet expectations or they miss it's a disaster like beats don't exist in this market so you've got a lot of reasons to be bearish and I don't blame anybody for being a bear I was a bear in January back when I thought the Fed was egg in a rug pull us I thought we were going to get a one to two percent rate hike I thought they were going to force a recession why because we had a wage price spiral in January that wage price spiral is actually revised away in February we had War which reiterated the belief that maybe we shouldn't push for a recession because maybe consumers will spend less although ironically consumers have been spending more and the FED actually changed to a little bit of a game-changing dovish tone which is shocking because they've become very aggressive as of December right those minutes that we got January 5th and worst minutes I've ever read if you just type into YouTube meet Kevin worst Federal Reserve meeting minutes ever you'll see it January 5th terrible which Speaking of dates reminds me of the fact that today is still 4 20 and you can get the absolute best prices on my program that on any of my programs I'm Building Wealth that you will ever be able to get in the future I promise you there will never be a day that you could get these programs cheaper today is 4 20.
it's the last day that you can do that take advantage of that we'll be changing the pricing in the morning pricing will be elevating up so if you want to lock in the best pricing and see me and private course member live streams and get all of my updated content in the future which just uh between you and me and when we launched uh this new project we're working on we're also going to be launching some new lectures especially in our property management real estate and stock sections so stay tuned for those new lectures all the upgrades are totally free for those programs so check those out really good for building your wealth in the long term use that code down below I think it's cyber Kevin and that's really because so impressed with Tesla I still have my wristband on this is like two weeks old here I shower with it I anyway so this is all the bad over here but but look at some of the good that we have first of all people keep referring back to the 70s and 80s and they forget that wait a minute we we have something that's very different from the 70s and 80s which is the late 70s early 80s Paul volckering and the difference is unanchored inflation expectations back in the late 70s people thought that oh my gosh we left the gold standards the gold standard the dollar is going to zero if the dollar goes to zero will ship why would I hold the dollar this is terrible stupid this is worthless like inflation is just going to keep going to the Moon we're going to be wheelbarrows of cash like the Weimar Republic in the 20s in Germany complete disaster but no what do we actually have today is we actually have anchor one year inflation expectations completely flat what do we have for the five-year inflation expectations completely flat at three percent I mean this is incredible we know that consumers actually think that in about three years mortgage rates will be like eight to eight point two percent don't get me wrong I'm bearish on real estate right now but I will take that as an opportunity to go shopping for Real Estate but I know how to shop for Real Estate I know how to get deals below market value so that's that's easy that's a that's a cakewalk so uh core CPI fell this is mostly because of the Manheim index which is the used vehicle index and then we've got rental lodging air travel people are still spending money like crazy which I mean I just booked a trip uh many trips I mean I think we're going to go to Hawaii again we're going to go to Italy we're going to go to Germany we're going to I can't go skiing anymore I'd love to take the kids skiing but it's too late in the season but anyway people are still spending money like crazy and I'm not exempt from that we still want to travel travel is fun especially after this coveted nonsense and I've been exercising more so for those of you asking about the fitness challenge I now have a challenge of running four to this sounds crazy but eight miles a day like my shins are killing me shin splints they suck but it's it's great like I love getting out there again and I feel the same way about hanging out with folks whether it's uh at restaurants or bars or uh drinking at home I don't care it's fun but covet is over all right I know obviously covet still exists we saw that in Shanghai Tesla reopen blah blah blah whatever all the freaking comments see I gotta hedge like every angle every time I say something I have to I forget who cares freaking losers in the comments sometimes most of you though are really nice I really appreciate you like I see the nice comments and I'm like man the core audience these are good people I really like these people anyway so what do we got over here this this is probably the biggest thing right here so I might not believe this but back in January the uh president of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence uh survey uh said that we have a wage price spiral it's so much so that uh they they went out of their way to say that wait a minute when wages are growing at a faster clip then inflation is growing we're in a wage price spiral this is bad this is really bad this was one of the main core Theses that was the reason I made sort of a Titanic video like oh my gosh we're on the Titanic right it was terrible uh now fortunately that turned out to be a a nothing Burger thank freaking God and we were able to purchase lower which is also freaking wonderful but what are some of the other things we have the five year Break Even uh The Five-Year break-even rotating down is uh is is very very huge this is markets the markets inflation of uh sorry the Market's expectations of inflation going down consumer inflation expectations going down the 10-year mostly steepening although we did go from about uh 0.38 to about 0.28 after Netflix which wasn't great we had some flattening but generally we're on this trajectory of steepening let's keep that trajectory going okay we don't want to go back to inversion and and don't remember this but maybe a portfolio update as well okay because I have a little bit of margin right now but I'm going to give you some clarity about my margin I'm going to give you a portfolio update but consumer margin right now is is down 14.5 percent from October which is really good we've had a manufacturing feet in March but at the same time as we had a manufacturing beat in March we actually have less Freight and rail shipments which is a little bit of a sign that consumers are spending a little less money on things and maybe spending more money on Services which is the rotation that you would expect you would expect to see a pull towards the extreme of services over like certainly durables which are like washing machines and cars uh and other junk with the exception of of course Tesla which sometimes people like oh clearly see exception of tests like you have anything you invest in tests that you're just trying to pump it dude I can't I wish I could pump test the stock I can't maybe Elon can but I can only has to do is say funding secured oh uh but anyway uh look uh consumer discretion they're going to get hit but Banks Tesla Proctor and Gamble the earnings that we've gotten here with the exception of obviously the negative net Flex huge freaking beats across the board here I mean we're killing it with the consumer so I'm very optimistic now I promised you portfolio updates so let me give you one here okay and keep in mind use cyber Kevin the coupon code join me so you when you ask questions to me in person we can have a dialogue about what you think about what's going on in the market maybe what do you think like what would Kevin do in your shoes to try to get ahead and get to the next level whatever hey here's my real estate deal that I'm in escrow on Kevin do you think this is a good deal I'll give you my sincere feedback you all know I'm no BS I tell you what I'm thinking and sometimes I get hate for that and sometimes I get praise for that I mean it is what it is okay so portfolio update all right portfolio update is pretty simple right now uh I did just get tagged with nine and a half million dollars of taxes which is a complete disaster so tentatively I'm seven million dollars in margin but I have about 4.8 in cash uh which is very very nice uh but uh so so that that's a nice little offset there uh but if I go uh 4.8 cash minus the uh seven in margin I'm sitting at about negative 2.4 cash right now which means I'm actually in margin which sucks but I've got some real estate transactions closing which is nice because that those real estate transactions were going to clear out my margin so the point of this is I'm not trying to Advocate that anybody get into margin I think margin is a terrible idea you should not be in margin of this Market uh otherwise in terms of a stock position so I'm going to be clearing out my margin with real estate and then what I'm going to be doing is I'm going to be taking the extra cash and uh probably a large chunk of my stock portfolio we're going to be moving this over into a new corporation which is the metcaven.com series a opportunity there's not much I can really say about it right now but if you go to metcaven.com series a throw your information in there you'll be the first to know about it actually right after course members because course members are going to have the first opportunity to potentially invest with me so that'll be really cool thing so check that out metkevan.com series a and then of course if you want to become a course member metcaven.com join and use the coupon code cyber Kevin but anyway my portfolio's really kind of whittled down to very very few positions so uh in in anytime I make a transaction whether it's in crypto or stocks you get an alert if you join the courses but uh Tesla 16 000 shares Google 606 Disney 10 000 uh AMC I still huddle my AMC 2520 shares Ada 1 million shares or coins tokens of ADA and uh 25 000 shares of trade desk that's uh that's my entire portfolio so my stock portfolio right now sits about 21.4 mil my net worth left that's still captured in real estate is probably somewhere in the direction of about eight mil that's a lot of um uh well I have quite a few properties that are still paid off in cash that are like do I want to refinance them or just sell them and I'm selling them and I'm not selling them because I think it's a good idea to sell I think for most people it's not a good idea to sell I'm selling them because I want to move into this new opportunity so uh you know plus or minus depending on the day's fluctuations depending on how things open tomorrow I guess that puts my uh NW somewhere around 30 which is certainly less than where it was at the peak of the market in November but I mean you know anybody can compare like compare Kathy Wood and her fund at Peak to bottom and it's like oh God that's even worse that's bad but fluctuations in the market happens so I mean if if you're having that problem by the way where if like you're trying to compare yourself to Peak uh be careful of that because it's really toxic like it'll eat away at you one tip I can give you write it down like write down how you're feeling crappy about like I wish I did this write down I wish I did X but I didn't and I'm an idiot uh take that little piece of paper put it in a drawer and and write down even on how you're feeling about it like I feel crappy about this or whatever and now because you've written it down you actually never have to think about it again because you've written it down but of course you know you're never going to look at that piece of paper again so psychologically now you can get it so a little trick hopefully that helps you if you want more tricks like that I'm serious you I guarantee you I guarantee you otherwise email me and be like Kevin I didn't learn anything but I guarantee you you will learn something in the programs any of them uh I would personally at this point in the market recommend zero to millionaire real estate investing a lot of people bundle zero to millionaire real estate investing without cyber Kevin coupon code expiring today a lot of people bundle that with these stocks and psychology of money and then usually what I recommend is like don't don't go all in right now and get the property management course yet wait a couple months get through the real estate investing course then get the property management course the property management course is going to get some really sick updates within the next three to six months because our entire real estate plan is going in that course which is going to be really cool but you've got to go through zero to millionaire first to really understand that unless of course you're already exposed to real estate of course there's a you know entire program of course on building a YouTube channel as well or real estate sales company so check those out like down below thanks so much for watching look I'm bullish on the market so to all the FN Bears I'm sorry I'm not on your team Michael burry go f yourself and uh goodbye folks bye
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