저자: Kevin · 외국인
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AMC 극장 재무 분석. 2022년 현재 분기 적자와 높은 이자비용으로 현금이 약 2년치 남았다고 평가. 아마존의 영화 투자 발표로 극장 시장 성장을 기대할 수 있으나 AMC 주가는 PER 약 127배로 고평가이며 APE 주식은 결국 휴지조각이 될 것으로 예상. 화자는 이전에 APE를 팔았고 APE 가치가 1달러 이하, 6~12개월 내 상장폐지를 예상함. 다만 시장 반등 가능성은 열어둠.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet Kevin here I think it's time to have an honest discussion about AMC in this video we're going to talk about how much ape AMC has sold we're going to do some projections to try to understand the AMC valuation we'll talk about what Amazon just announced and how much that could move the box office from a fundamentals point of view now look I've been a little aggressive about uh ape and I've mostly been aggressive about ape and AMC because I kind of thought that ape was a rip-off and was going to hurt a lot of people so I sold my own ape shares and kind of told everyone it'd probably be a good idea to do that as well and I want you to see the passion in that video clip which I'll show you right here let's make this very very clear ape is a ploy it is a ploy to hope that Meme stock Traders pump up ape stock to the moon so that way there's a sustained Market AMC can dump shares raise lots of money and pay off their debt and again if you want a free nft to Showcase how stupid it is to hold your ape shares make sure to go to the AMC investor connect website and get your free nft because let me tell you ape Shares are going to be worth as much as that nft is going to be worth zero in six to 12 months I expect to ticker symbol 8 will be worth one dollar or less that would be an 86 percent decline from today and it'll be worthless and delisted soon after that the hope is that AFC will have paid off all of their debt before ape becomes worthless but until 8 becomes worthless AMC will continue to use it as a free money printer and this is a brilliant farce so I got a lot of hate from the AMC Community for this I was called a shill a sellout a suit yet I sold my AP shares at over eight dollars and now it's trading for 1.21 cents we're almost at the one dollar that I predicted and I'm not trying to Pat myself on the back I'm just trying to help people see a red flag when I see it and people got mad at me for selling in January in hindsight I wish I never got back in right because I was right about selling and so when I see something fundamental I'm not suggesting you copy me exactly or do exactly what I say all I would say is hey let's have a reasonable dialogue and try to understand what's actually going on with that said let's talk about AMC the movie theater and let's talk about this Amazon deal that just came out so we're gonna incorporate these two things first in the last earnings Adam Aaron suggested that hey you know what we've had a soft box office quarter and so revenue is declined sequentially that means quarter over quarter okay uh In fairness they did and if you put the quarter over quarter numbers in red on the left you'd actually be able to properly compare the quarter over quarter numbers see we don't really want to compare to uh 2021 because people weren't going to movie theaters as much we kind of want to compare quarter to quarter and maybe even back to 2019.
back in 2019 we were doing around 1 to 1.3 billion dollars of Revenue and in Q2 it looked like we were kind of going back in that direction at about 1.16 billion dollars of Revenue however quarter of a recorder those revenues slipped in total 17 and you can see how the categories have declined here other theater Revenue down 24.
other revenues of course come from Those ads that you see before a movie plays and things like gift cards okay then we saw operating expenses stable in Q2 which is good we really don't want to see these explode because that would mean employee costs are going up right and then Q2 they were at 402.2 and in Q3 they were again stable 400.6 okay good so stable operating the industry just shrunk a little bit that's not necessarily AMC's fault that's just okay a bad box office quarter the biggest problem with AMC though is of course over here corporate borrowings corporate borrowings went up with the expense went up by about five million dollars as interest rates are increasing and AMC refinanced some of its debt presumably presumably at a higher interest rate leading to this higher interest expense in the quarter rising from 80 million dollars to 85.1 the operating loss if you just consider operations uh was only 16.1 million dollars but then when you take out other costs and depreciation and of course interest you get to a total loss of 226 million dollars and if you want to know what kind of cash burn that is in terms of cash flows since obviously depreciation isn't an actual cash expense cash burn is sitting at 179.2 million dollars which is a little bit of a problem given that right now AMC has 684.6 million dollars so how do we reconcile all of this and if you want to know the refinance information that's actually sitting right here they refinanced a 471 million dollar loan at 12.75 that by the way is why yes your interest expense is rising so you've got a company in an industry that is somewhat shrinking you don't actually have a lot of cash operating expenses are are stable and your interest expense is rising at 85 million per quarter you actually don't have a lot of runway in fact if we do some quick math we can see with 684.6 million dollars of cash assuming they get to a break even without touching their credit lines they have two years of cash and then they're out of cash then they have to start borrowing again uh if you don't go break even and you keep having these negative nearly 200 million dollar quarters you'll be out of cash at AMC in three months and then unfortunately it's either borrow more increasing that uh that corporate debt expense or it's go bankrupt but we have to talk about this thing called ape ape are the AMC preferred Equity shares uh I got a lot of heat for talking about these ape shares basically being a setup uh and a tool for AMC to basically just give the AMC Apes that is retail investors something to be excited about something to go to the moon for something to go fight for only to turn around and dump those shares on that retail audience using the money they raise there to pay off the debt at AMC now I personally actually thought this was a pretty creative Ploy because if they could rip off retail investors at least they would be able to pay off their debt and if they paid off their debt they could make sure that the 30 000 people who work at AMC don't go jobless if the company goes bankrupt unfortunately the company hasn't done a really good job at ripping people off I hate to say that because the stock has plummeted as I unfortunately predicted the stock has plummeted from where I sold it in the Eight dollar range all the way to as we see here a dollar and 21 cents but what bothers me the most is that this stock this is the weekly chart by the way let's zoom out to the day chart here so you can see this a little more you could see with every one of these ticks representing a day they this company AMC had plenty of days to dump shares all over here look at that you had almost all of all you had you had 30 days here 30 days that you could have sold this stock for over five dollars over five dollars they could have sold the stock for and dumped on retail and what did they decide to do instead well they didn't instead they decided to just sell 14.9 million shares raising only 36.4 million dollars which is a drop in the bucket relative to the debt they have 36.4 million dollars doesn't even pay for two weeks of Interest it's bad and if you divide these two it means as of on November 8th they've been selling at a 2.44 average now the Stock's only worth a buck 21.
so they have to sell twice as many shares just to raise more money and I think they're starting to panic because you even see that today which is really weird today AMC stock actually Rose 4.3 percent but ape stock which usually moves in conjunction with AMC stock fell four percent that's really weird and look at this massive volume boost all of a sudden you went from an average of 13 to 20 million shares traded all the way to 46 million shares that's a difference of about 25 million shares which In fairness if they sold if this was AMC selling they potentially raised another congratulations two weeks worth of Interest 30 million dollars except they pushed the stock more into the abyss that's the ape shares now I expect ape to be milk to dry and basically become completely worthless this is what I've been saying for a while now but sometimes people get mad at me when I talk about fundamentals so what am I going to do well no I'm not going to pitch you my program on fundamental analysis with a 60 off Black Friday coupon code which comes up in a couple days but instead I'm gonna talk dirty to you and give you some more fundamental analysis Amazon announced today that they plan to invest one billion dollars to produce 12 to 15 feature films a year that they would air in cinemas the box office according to Bloomberg intelligence is expected to grow by 18.4 percent in 2023 and could go up by another 15 to 20 percent because of Amazon that's because in 2022 we are uh sitting at about 1 or 7.6 billion dollars of a box office that'll go up to hopefully 9 billion in 2023 and maybe even another 15 to 20 on top of that if this uh AMC uh plan comes to fruition in 2023 so what do we want to do well let's take Amazon or um Amazon let's take AMC's revenue and let's just average out Q2 and Q3 and let's take about a billion dollars of Revenue just to make math easy let's just say that's about your average quarterly Revenue let's now try to understand some future projections for this company and what the valuation of this company actually looks like let's grow one billion dollars by 18.4 and 20 so in other words we're going with the best case scenarios here like this is a pretty bullish scenario that would generate about 1.4 billion dollars of revenue for AMC if we then subtract out the 27 percent that usually goes of total revenue that goes to the films they split those revenues about 50 50 to the film companies and we take out 65.4 percent for rent food and operating expenses keep in mind the actual operating expenses last quarter were about 70.4 percent but because rent should be pretty stable since you have a bunch of empty seats I'm actually taking a whole five percent off of that margin I'm giving them an extra five percent margin just because of the scale that they could get since they're paying rent whether the seats are full or not right so I feel like I'm being generous here I'm using the biggest numbers possible on growth and the biggest growth or or a larger margin here that would leave them about a hundred and seven point eight million dollars if we then subtract out about 85 to 82 million dollars of debt expense maybe even uh well I guess it'll probably be like 85 to 90.
somewhere around there since it's kind of trending up a little bit as they do refinances and such that would leave about 15 to 20 million dollars in profit per quarter for AMC in this potential best case scenario which if you divide it'll just say 20 million dollars of profit by the about 1 billion shares outstanding which I just want to show you so you don't think I'm making these numbers up the share is outstanding are right there these keep in mind are the diluted share counts so they consider AP and all that right so now if we take about 15 million in profit you'll be at about an EPS of 1.5 cents if you take 20 million it'll be about 2 cents so you're somewhere between one and a half to two cents of eps which if we annualize that forget seasonality for a moment just annualize it times four gets you to about six cents of earnings divided by the current share price is seven dollars or take the share price divided by that 7.64 cents you're basically in an optimistic scenario looking at a p e ratio of about 127 times which for a company that's not a growth company that's a startup and has really good long-term prospects the valuation is really high and you have to make some really optimistic scenarios to make this one work again the assumptions are that box office revenues and AMC would equally benefit from that or growing at 18.4 plus 20 percent uh revenue is about 1.4 billion per quarter the last time by the way they were around 1.3 billion dollars before the pandemic was 2019.
and they actually lost money like their margin was less than two percent except I'm assuming a 7.55 margin in this generous scenario I don't know like let's let's try to be positive here but this is very very risky if you now add to the fact that ape is failing because they're trying to sell it but they did it too late like the idea to rip people off and pay off the debt was there but they failed at it it's just just not looking good that's all I got to say that's it that's it look is it possible that if the stock market rallies going into CPI or into 2023 as inflation comes down is it possible that the stock meme rallies and risk rallies absolutely is it a good fundamental play I'll leave it up to you
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