📈Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Analysis Update | The Cold Hard Truth 📉

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엔비디아 주가 전망을 다룬 2018년 11월 영상으로, 결론은 크립토 붐 재고 조정이 앞으로 약 6개월 더 이어져 엔비디아·AMD 등 반도체주의 단기 흐름이 매우 불안정할 수 있다는 것이다. 엔비디아 재고와 실적 수치에서 크립토 붐의 영향이 약 2개분기(6개월) 더 반영될 것이라고 주장하며, 엔비디아와 AMD 모두 그 기간 동안 변동성이 클 수 있다고 본다. 진행자는 자신의 M1 Finance 포트폴리오에서 엔비디아 비중(약 99.8%)을 절반으로 줄이고, 그 자금의 5%를 반도체 3배 레버리지 ETF인 SOXL(USD 표기)에 배분하는 전략을 설명한다. 평균 매수가는 M1 계좌 기준 205.14달러, 개인 IRA 계좌 기준 126달러라고 밝히며, 현재 약간의 손실 상태이므로 손실 일부를 상쇄하기 위해 비중을 조정한다고 한다. SOXL의 최근 1년 차트 흐름과 함께 고점(크립토 붐 시기) 대비 조정 상태를 언급하며, 현 시점이 분할 매수에 적절한 구간이라고 본다. SOXL은 인텔, 브로드컴, TI, 퀄컴, 마이크론, 어플라이드머티리얼즈, 애널로그디바이스, AMD, 램리서치 등 반도체 기업에 분산 투자되어 있어 엔비디아 단일 종목보다 안정적이라고 설명한다. 배당 측면에서 연 0.95% 수수료와 분기 배당을 언급하며, 단기적 하방 방어를 위한 일종의 방어 전략이라고 정리한다. 진행자는 종목 선택에 정답은 없으며, 엔비디아를 유지하든 분할 매수하든 시청자 판단에 맡긴다고 덧붙인다. 요약하면, 단기 반도체 조정 리스크를 인정하면서도 분산된 레버리지 ETF로 일부 전환해 대응하는 것이 핵심 메시지다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. all right guys so I feel a certain amount of responsibility for NVIDIA uh here on YouTube I have a lot of videos I've made we've done a lot of coverage on Nvidia and of course uh a lot of my subscribers are very very interested in Nvidia stock so I feel like I have a certain responsibility to the public to um kind of go back change my analysis a little bit update it and uh kind of get it out there get my strategy out there how I'm going to play this position from here and uh share that with everybody on YouTube so they can adjust as well so I'm going to give it to you straight a lot of other YouTube creators are going to keep telling you lies uh I want to be the one or the one of the few that comes out here and tells you exactly like it is because I care more about you and I care more about your money than I'll ever care about any company okay I'm not married to any of these companies and uh as far as I'm concerned it's all about how can we make the most money uh so here is the cold hard truth about Nvidia guys it is going to take two more quarters um which is 6 months it's going to take six months to really correct the uh crypto boom okay as far as Nvidia uh inventory go show it is going to take another 6 months to correct that out of their numbers okay and so guys this also goes for AMD the same as it does Nvidia um both of these stocks uh it's going to take a half of a year to really filter out all the Crypt boom uh sales numbers okay so the road ahead for AMD and Nvidia it might be very very choppy okay and uh I feel is my resp responsibility to come on here and uh share my strategy of how I'm going to play Nvidia and AMD and the rest of the entire chip sector as a whole uh from here out so um I'm going to go over to my M1 Finance portfolio I'm going to explain um how I'm going to do that here on the channel then I'm also going to tell you how I'm going to do it in my personal IRA account all right guys so this is all the positions uh we have here for the uh M1 Finance portfolio that I manage here on the channel okay one of our biggest positions is NVIDIA okay so uh it's currently sitting about 99.8% uh of weight on our portfolio okay now let me just click on it and I can show you the average price that we have so our average share price on Nvidia is 20514 okay now I'm going to jam back here and tell you my game plan I'm going to do some portfolio realignment okay um we only have $30 invested into Nvidia so we're only at a $7 loss so this is not uh going to hurt this portfolio very much at all all it's going to do is kind of stop the bleeding and we cannot continue to invest through this dip Nvidia is going to be experiencing but I want to uh so I took my 10% position in Nvidia and I cut it in half and I'm going to realign it and put 5% into ticker symbol USD that is the semiconductor Ultra Pro shares okay and uh I'm going to break that down for you uh in just a moment but I just want to re just uh kind of go over that I'm cutting my position in Nvidia on the channel here 5% okay I'm cutting it in half and I'm devoting that money to the semiconductor Ultra Pro share uh ETF so I hope this little chart year here guys can kind of give you an idea of what kind of return this ETF has seen over the past 5 years it's grown very good uh like I said it's come from the $10 to$ 122 range and like I said it jammed up really high during the crypto boom you know uh June 1st of 2018 it looks like it was $50 a share and now it is pulled back like I said because the semiconductor industry as a whole is uh really hurting right now I think we're back in a very viable position so I'm sure these are the only metrics anybody is really concerned about so let's talk about this real quick uh they have a 0.95 expense ratio and 15 C dividend and the dividend frequency they pay out every quarter okay so let's go over the reason I want to get involved with this ETF guys and it is right over here check this bad boy out okay this thing is loaded with great companies like I said that represents the chip sector um in a lot better fashion than like I said just holding a position in Nvidia or AMD um what I want the message I want to get to right now guys is there's no right or wrong answer if you want to just stay along with Nvidia go for it add to your position in the dips if you're an AMD person if you try to play them all and play them both or you have a bunch of these different companies you know do what you do it's just the chip sector as a broad in a broad sense is not doing well right now so I think that's the time to start investing uh but look here guys we're going to get 133% exposure to Intel we're going to get 10% exposure to Nvidia 6.5% exposure to broadcom 6.3% exposure to Texas Instruments 6.16% exposure to Qualcomm and as you can see we got Micron Applied Materials Analog Devices uh AMD and Lam Research and there is actually more Holdings um than that but I'm happy with that that right there I'm happy with that family of Chip makers right there so right here guys I've got the one-year chart pulled up on USD and I'm going to talk about how I'm going to play this position position in my personal Ira retirement portfolio I'm going to do almost the exact same thing I did in M1 Finance okay so I was investing uh back in Nvidia back before the big crypto boom you know I was buying shares and I my my average cost per share on Nvidia was $126 okay so that's my cost basis on Nvidia so I'm going to be cutting that position in half and I'm going to be starting a position in USD okay like I said to offset some of the loss and also like I said get more exposure to the chip sector abroad so anyways like I said here's the one-year chart guys and you can see uh we're in a good place to start an investment okay we are dipped down if it goes lower we will buy more okay there's some companies in that uh in that fund that will help you know kind of keep this propped up like I said broadcom Intel uh you know Intel's a Dow Jones company and we all know about AMD the explosion AMD has shown over the past couple years that's also a stock I really really love but uh this is just a little bit of protection like I said going to be a little bit more stable um it pays a dividend and uh gives us plenty of exposure so that's all we got guys I'm basically doing the same thing across the board you know the M1 Finance portfolio and my retirement portfolio we're going to play a little uh we're going to play a little defense for now okay so thanks for watching guys uh drop me some comments let me know what you're thinking about Nvidia about the chip sector as a whole and I hope you enjoyed the video