저자: Jeff · 외국인
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결론: 엔비디아와 AMD를 장기 보유하며 하락 시 추가 매수하라는 입장이며, 옵션 투기는 비추천한다. 엔비디아: 2018년 10월 290달러대에서 12월 127달러 수준까지 급락했고, 원인은 2017~18년 암호화폐 채굴 수요 붐과 그 이후 재고 충당금 급증(3분기 7천만 달러, 9개월 1억 2,400만 달러)이었다. 현재 130달러 부근에서 반등 중이며, 이 구간을 진입 또는 추가 매수 기회로 본다. AMD: 1년간 100% 이상 상승했고 S&P500 최상위 종목 중 하나다. 미중 무역 갈등으로 반도체 업종 전반이 타격을 입었지만 AMD는 시장 점유율을 빼앗는 파괴자로 보며, 둘 중 하나만 고른다면 AMD를 택하겠다고 함. 인텔보다 AMD가 낫다는 견해에 동의한다. 비트코인: 1년간 약 52% 상승, 최근 14,000달러 돌파 후 하루 만에 10,000달러 아래로 급락했다가 9,600달러 부근. 2019년 채굴 물량은 2017년보다 많아 암호화폐 붐 재개를 시사한다. 과거 2016~17년 패턴처럼 장기 상승 전망이며, 2019년 말 25,000~30,000달러 가능, 일부 전문가는 50,000달러까지 제시. 수요 구조: 그래픽카드 수요는 현재 암호화폐 채굴이 아니라 AI 고객이 주도한다는 전문가 의견을 인용. 게임·AI·머신러닝 노출도 강조. 진입 전략: 엔비디아 160달러 부근 스타터 포지션 후 큰 하락 시 추가 매수. 엔비디아 목표 300달러 복귀 가능, AMD는 40달러 이상 상승 전망. 리스크: 하락기간이 길어질 수 있으며, 그래픽카드 수요 회복까지 6개월~1년 걸릴 수 있음. 단일 종목 몰빵 금지. 암호화폐가 하락해도 두 종목은 가치가 있다고 봄. 출연자 전망: 암호화폐 장기 상승을 확신하며, 주식보다 암호화폐 비중은 작지만 비트코인 가격은 수년간 상승할 것이라고 본다.
다듬은 글
what's going on everyone my name is Jeff in this video I want to talk about the importance of two stocks Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices so anybody that's been a longtime subscriber to this channel knows I've covered Nvidia a lot over the years through their good times and also through some of their difficulties those coming in 2018 we seen this big drop-off we're on October 1st 2018 and video was trading over 290 dollars a share then just two and a half months later was more than cut in half Nvidia traded down to 127 dollars eight cents seen its one year lows made a strong rebound into April 23rd but then just revisited the $130 level just two weeks ago and now is starting to see some level of an uptrend again now there's a lot of outside factors that have hurt Nvidia but obviously the most important one was the crypto boom from late 2017 early 2018 the huge demand for graphics cards where crypto mining was up at an all time high crypto prices went skyrocketing in just a matter of a couple of weeks and then of course crypto really traded down for the rest of 2018 and what we learned in that guys is a lot of Nvidia's numbers they were coming to earnings reports with those crypto numbers were not fully understood by the company okay the demand for Nvidia graphics cards was being pulled from the crypto craze end up once all of that slowed down the demand for graphics cards and Nvidia slowed down with it so I know a lot of people took a loss and got out of this stock guys I know people that were buying options and buying into the stock around the 290 dollar level but I do think right here at these current levels this is a great place to start or add to your position in Nvidia and I think Nvidia and AMD are about to go up quite a bit over the next six months to one year so do me a favor guys now AMD has seen a much different story over the past year up 100 and 11% one of the best performing stocks on the S&P 500 as a matter of fact I do believe it made the list of several companies number one stock of 2018 and is performed quite well of course it did take that big dip back in December with everything else in the market and Nvidia and AMD are seeing some natural headwinds from the trade deal between the United States and China however there is a very very compelling case why owning both AMD and NVIDIA long term and then leaving yourself to some money to add to these positions on any significant dip is going to be a huge returner I would say over the next six months to one year so let me reiterate guys I really don't suggest playing options on either one of these stocks and here's why because the chip sector is too unpredictable right now if there's been one sector that has got hit the hardest from the trade war it is definitely chips okay we've seen huge falls off in Nvidia micron Broadcom Texas Instruments and several others of course AMD has been one of the more steady ones but again this is disrupting much much bigger businesses and AMD's making this huge comeback if I had to pick and I had to say and I could only pick one stock AMD or Nvidia I would actually probably go with AMD just simply because it is the great disrupter in this space I seen a quote last night saying why own Intel when you can own AMD and I could not agree with that statement more I think Intel is still going to be a good company you're still going to see good return decent return if you own that stock but you're going to get a lot more return on AMD in in video so I'm sure most of you predicted that this is where this was gonna go right because over the past year now Bitcoin prices have surged around 52% we've seen just a couple of weeks ago Bitcoin get itself over $14,000 a coin and so the crypto craze is coming back why is that significant well 14,000 dollars per coin that is only $4,000 off of its all-time high and it's holding pretty steady of course we do see some of these big up trends in crypto then we see these peer time like for example last night Krypto dropped under $10,000 a coin looked like about 6:30 this morning Bitcoin was around 9600 dollars and I did see a lot of different videos pop up on YouTube where the Bitcoin crowd was starting to panic and of course you just have to remain confident if you do believe crypto is gonna go up then obviously you have to look at these as opportunities to buy more now what does all of this mean for AMD and NVIDIA it means that a lot more people are mining crypto again and there's so much more crypto in 2019 than there was in 2017 and even this week coin based introduced ticker symbol link2cell concei that i have actually been investing in since it was around 30 cents okay my only regret was not buying more at that time but I do have a nice little stash of coins that I have been holding like I said my position is up over 1,100 percent in just a couple of weeks okay so this one is starting to see some mark koep it's over about 1.2 billion now and it's safe to say that the crypto craze is officially back so what are we putting together here okay the real message I want to send out in this video is that we're predicting the trend okay because we've seen the big pullback in Nvidia stock price as a matter of fact we have seen it two different times this year and those honestly would have been the best place to make an entry but we can't all read into the future we have to take the data we have and make the best decisions we can with it a lot of people especially us long-term investors we would almost pray that it does pull back sharply again and according to experts the demand for graphics cards is currently not driven by crypto mining it is actually being driven by artificial intelligence interested customers so this is a really this is a play on the long term success and the long term price trend on Bitcoin aetherium litecoin and the crypto currencies is that as the price continues to go up higher and higher unbiblical a will come back very similar to 2016 and 2017 where I remember at some point almost everyday clicking I'm Bitcoin taking a look at it and it would be at maybe twenty or thirty dollars next thing you know it was up a hundred dollars then next thing you know it's up a hundred percent then two hundred percent then a thousand percent and then right there at the end of 2017 you seen Bitcoin hit that eighteen thousand dollar mark we're just a few months ago it was just a couple of hundred of dollars so there was a several thousand percent opportunity for a return in there now the difficult part probably would have been selling in the middle of that or having the common sense to sell while that was going on but and so I also believe that all the crypto members have been properly cleaned out of Nvidia's inventory and that is no longer showing up at earnings reports they are back just to typical GPU and CPU driver points okay when they release their earnings report back in November that's when they reveal the drying demand for their graphics cards processing units so a lot of people are gonna sit here and go okay well that dried up so what this really is is it's a long-term belief that the price of Bitcoin is going to continue to rise that's why I am investing more money in nvidia AMD at these levels okay of course we are not seeing the price explosion that we did a couple of years ago but since going back to January for six months we have seen gradual progression in the price of Bitcoin and guys it is came from roughly $3,000 to up making it high over $13,000 so still about a 400% return in six months and I think it's very safe to say that the crypto hangover is officially over for Nvidia again this is all news I just do want to go over it a little bit is that the companies provisions for inventories purposely expanded to 70 million in quarter 3 of 2018 having more than tripled for the first nine months of the current year to 124 million and guys I think a lot of people lost faith in videos capability of forecasting earnings okay they did not properly understand that this huge boost was 75 to 80 percent of their sales okay so this is when also the margins dropped it also attributed fifty seven million dollars in charge later the company's previous generations of chips following the plunge Crypton mining demand so in my humble opinion the real advantage to investing in both of these companies is that you are going to get exposure to crypto but you're also gonna get exposure to gaming artificial intelligence machine learning so much other stuff I think you are safe to invest in AMD in a video but do not go all in in one position and guys I also unless you are just supremely confident in your ability with options I would not play options on either side of one of these two stocks I think this is an investment that you just let come to you it might be six months or a year before the demand of those graphics cards really starts coming back again and who knows in six months or a year Bitcoin might be up around 25,000 30,000 I know some experts are predicting up as high as 50,000 just keep in mind that these two stocks AMD and NVIDIA are both gonna still hold pretty good water and a very large amount of value even if Bitcoin was to trade down again like I said I would invest wisely I would buy in on lows in any significant dip if you did take a starter position around 160 dollars within video I would just suggest either making some money adding to your positions if and when it drops but going forward I don't see this company having any problem getting itself back to $300 a share and like I said the sky is the limit with AMD I've been a believer in that company for a long time and I think it's headed back to $40 a share and much much higher than that but anyways guys thanks for watching a video that's all I've got go down to the comments section share your thoughts and opinions on this situation again this is a play on cryptocurrency but you also have the comfort of knowing these stocks do hold quite a bit of value if crypto does trade back down for a period of time now me myself I'm a big believer in crypto I don't have nearly as much money in crypto currency as I do the stock market but I do believe the price of Bitcoin will continue to grow as the years go on so thank you as always for watching a video and have a great day
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