📈(TSLA) Stock vs (NIO) Stock: Race To 100% | Part 3 📉

요약 보기

결론: 2018년 11월 이후 1년간 테슬라는 약 12% 상승, 니오는 약 -40% 하락 수준으로 펀더멘털이 강한 테슬라가 니오를 압도했다. 진행 방식: 2018년 11월 테슬라 1주(347.49달러)와 니오 1주(7.67달러)를 매수한 가상 포트폴리오를 1년 후 점검하는 형식이며, 실제 자금이 아닌 Yahoo Finance 포트폴리오다. 과거 흐름: 2019년 3월 시점에는 니오가 10달러 이상으로 약 30% 상승했고 테슬라는 52달러 하락 상태였다. 테슬라는 여름 170~180달러대까지 밀렸다가 실적 기대로 반등했다. 추가 매수 및 현황: 2019년 3월 이후 테슬라와 니오를 1주씩 추가 매수해 각 2주씩 보유 중이다. 2019년 12월 기준 테슬라는 335.89달러(평단 299.65달러, 약 +12%), 니오는 2.26달러(평단 6.21달러)다. 테슬라 펀더멘털: 최근 분기 실적 호조와 애널리스트 상향이 언급됐다. 순이익률은 적자지만 영업이익률은 흑자 근접, 현금 53억 달러 대 부채 146억 달러, 영업현금흐름 22억 달러, 잉여현금흐름 약 9.9억 달러다. 니오 펀더멘털: 순이익률 -239%, 자산수익률 -53%, 자기자본이익률 -611%, 부채비율 2,354로 매우 취약하며 영업현금흐름과 잉여현금흐름이 없다고 평가했다. 결론적 시사점: 발행자는 좋은 재무제표와 현금흐름이 기대감보다 결국 주가를 이긴다고 강조한다. 니오가 4.50달러까지 가려면 약 63% 상승이 필요하다고 언급했다. 추가 언급 종목: 페라리(RACE), GM, 포드 편입을 검토하겠다고 했으며, 시청자 추천을 받고 있다. 출연자 전망: 특정 대상 자산(삼성전자 등)에 대한 명시적 방향 예측 발언은 없고, 테슬라 장기 우위와 니오 열위 관점만 제시됐다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. what's going on everyone my name is Jeff and in this video this is actually a part three of two videos I made one going back about a year ago to November 20th 2018 and another one I made March 1st of 2019 so I've been going back through some of my old inventory so my older catalogs I know this was a video that a lot of people liked and fortunately enough I still have the yahoo finance portfolio set up in those shares I have been actively trading all on again this is a video about which stock can run to a hundred percent first neo or Tesla okay now I'm gonna go through part one in part two of those videos give you kind of a setup I'm sure some of you watching this probably do remember when I made these videos so I'm gonna give you this setup I'm gonna tell you exactly how I got to where I am and then at the end of this video I'm gonna show you where these two stocks are currently trading at from a year ago again guys keep in mind this is just a fun video this is not me being a Tesla fanboy this is not me being a neo fanboy this is just me making a fun type of video against two big competitors in the electric vehicle space and that's really all there is to it so we're gonna get into that this is kind of an old graphic but it will kind of help explain some of the fluctuations you have seen in neo and Tesla stock over the past few years the big point I want everyone to draw from this is that Tesla just had their best earnings report they've ever reported and they're becoming far more fundamentally strong as a matter of fact most analysts have turned fully bullish on Tesla giving them much bigger price targets then they had the big beat on EPS so the whole idea here I think the thing you're gonna see by the end of this video is that fundamentals good balance sheets and good cash flow is always going to beat hype even a low PPS like neo had where it's been trading it one in two dollars a share you think well is a no-brainer obviously neo is gonna run to a hundred percent before Tesla that's not always the case good socks get bought up and bad stocks get sold off even more that's really the point in the thing I want to focus on in this video use this video it's somewhat of a tool like I said I have over a year of data going into this idea the stock market rewards good balance sheets and they punish companies that can't make money so we're gonna jump into that in just a moment but first guys please drop a thumbs up on this video I appreciate all the lright the first video guys Tesla verse neil raced to 100% I published that video on November 20th 2018 and the whole gist of the video guys was to take a position randomly in Tesla and in neo and see which company would return a hundred percent share value first now keep in mind I did say that we will be cost averaging as we go along I'm sure I could have bought Tesla on a lot better date I'm sure I could have bought Neil on a lot better day like I said that was not the idea of the video I was just kind of randomly picking a day buying a share of each company and my cost basis on Tesla was three hundred and forty seven dollars and 49 cents and as you can see my cost basis on neo was seven dollars in sixty-seven cents this is a yahoo finance portfolio I'm at a full understanding that this is not my real money I got a lot of hateful comments last time if you want to know how I trade my real money head over to trade alerts Pro and you can see how I trade my real money every single day I'm not really gonna disclose a lot of that here on YouTube that is more of my premium content but anyways this is really where the first video kind of ended right here just me buying one share of Tesla 347 buying a share of Neil at seven dollars sixty seven cents at that time I think this story line was far more bullish for neo okay because it was shortly after their IPO this stock was returning you're gonna be surprised at the next graphic the next video that I show you because where we stand today Tesla is just by far the dominant company but neo actually was kicking its but when you go to March first all right video number two Tesla first Neil race to 100% part two this was published on March 1st 2019 as you can see right off the bat Neil was up over $10 a share you can see right over here at the total gain up 30% and Tesla was down 52 dollars a share as most of you probably do remember it got really really bad for Tesla over the summer training itself down into the 170 s in 180s and at that time I do have several videos where I've told everybody if you were holding puts or you're going short on Tesla please move out of those trades at the 170 to 180 level because just as soon as any coverage got bullish on Tesla this thing is gonna run like crazy and it did exactly that again guys nobody knows the answer to those questions my one thing is Tesla lost over 60% of its value and this was still a very good company that was having some bad earnings and some kind of poor delivery numbers meanwhile up NiO running to well over $10 share just kind of seen unjustified when you really looked at earnings okay so it was getting rewarded for poor earnings reports and poor fundamentals and I feel like Tesla was getting overly beat up and traded down to levels that just were not fundamentally accurate so at the end of this video I said that I was going to buy one share of both companies again okay I was gonna buy one more share of Tesla and one more share of Neil and did that about two to three weeks after I published this video said I wanted to wait till after Neos earnings report my cost basis is much different now let's go over to Yahoo Finance open up my portfolio and I will show you where these two are so I just want you to take a quick mental photograph or pause the video and come back Neil is up 30 percent here Tesla's down 15 percent alright so here's where we are at as of December 6 2009 teen so we're one year and a couple of days past the very first video and we currently own two shares of Tesla two shares of neo as you can see over here to the left Tesla's trading at three hundred thirty five dollars 89 cents and neo is down two dollars and 26 cents neo is really getting slaughtered has lost so much value again that was an IPO company and it hit the market at a time when I filled companies are really kind of flooding the market there's so many different IPO companies our average cost on Tesla comes out to $299 sixty five cents our average share price on neo six dollars 21 cents and I know there was a lot of people thinking neo was a bargain at six dollars our overall market value that really does not matter daily gain does not really matter but I want to go down here to the end this race to a hundred percent is gonna take a lot longer than I originally thought if you want to go off algorithms I would say Neil probably does have a better chance of running itself to four dollars and fifty cents here from two dollars and 26 cents however from our current cost basis it's gonna have to gain over 63 percent of its value while Tesla is twelve point zero nine percent in the green Tesla would have been the far better investment going back one year ago and then buying more in March so the race to 100% is still going I can think of a lot of other companies that have surpassed a hundred percent during that period of time auto manufacturing is a very difficult place to make money in the stock market I've been saying that for five or six years now Tesla's still probably the best place to put your money maybe other than Ferrari ticker symbol RAC II that's actually my favorite auto manufacturer in the stock market right now and maybe just for fun I'll throw a couple of different companies into the mix here what if I picked up a share of GM picked up a sheriff Ford and picked up a share of Ferrari if there's any companies you guys would like to see me add to this list go ahead and tell me I'm gonna go ahead and buy another share of Tesla and neo probably Monday or Tuesday of this week just to get in line a little better with the cost basis if you guys can think of any other companies you would like to be in on this 100% run let me know and I will try to add them for the next video guys real quick let's go over some of the fundamentals again I know is not the sexiest part about investing is analyzing numbers and analyzing statistics but the better you get at this the stronger your portfolios are gonna look so let's go over here to Tesla let's go look at a couple of their fundamentals so right here in profit margin and operating margin again they're not profitable yet but they're getting very very close their operating margin is slightly profitable while the return on assets is moving into the profit area and the return on equity is only down about 10 percent now if you compare these numbers to a year or two ago these numbers are a lot better than where I've seen the most work done is here on the balance sheet okay five point three four billion dollars with total cash compared to fourteen point six four billion dollars of total debt those are very healthy numbers especially for an auto manufacturer and this free cash flow operating cash flow at two point two one billion and a liter free cash flow of nine hundred ninety three point six seven million dollars now at one point in time it was reported that Tesla was gonna completely run out of cash and of course they cleaned it up and improve things a lot this is why you've seen such a huge move in the share price going back to the summer time and then get your barf bag ready because this is why neo is having so much trouble neo is negative two hundred thirty nine percent in the profit margin and obviously they don't have an operating margin they're down fifty three percent return on assets and the big one down six hundred and eleven percent return on equity guys this is absolutely terrible there is no operating cash flow there is no levered free cash flow and they have their total debt to equity ratio is a whopping two thousand three hundred and fifty four so from a fundamental standpoint neo is absolutely terrible they have so many things to improve in like I said the true growth company and a new IPO company getting support from Wall Street but now not getting support okay so it's went all the way from ten dollars seeing its way traded down to the one dollar range and I was returned closely to to on some bullish news but they have to bring earnings they gotta show better numbers and this is the reason why Tesla is kicking their butt okay so that is all I got for the video guys make sure to go down in the comment section tell me if there's some other companies you would like to see me add to this list if you would like some other auto manufacturers to get in on this race or are you just completely satisfied sing Tesla and neo raise to 100% neo has a long ways to catch up thank you as always for watching the video and have a great day