저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
Peter Lynch는 시장 공포와 예측의 무익함을 강조하며 장기 투자를 권한다. 과거 대공황, 1950년대 핵전쟁 공포, 석유 파동, LDC 부채, 일본 버블 붕괴 등 매번 '대폭락'이 예언되었지만 시장은 장기적으로 상승해 왔다고 주장한다. 1955~1985년 주가 상승분의 상당 부분이 월요일 하락 등 소수 날에 집중되는 등 단기 예측은 사실상 불가능하다고 본다. 1987년 블랙먼데이 당시 휴가 중이던 경험을 예로 들어 단기 시장 타이밍의 어려움을 설명한다. 하락장(10% 이상 조정)은 평균 2년에 한 번꼴로 발생하며 언젠가 반드시 온다고 인정하지만, 시점은 알 수 없고 장기 보유가 답이라고 말한다. 젊은 투자자가 공포에 덜 민감해 유리하다는 점을 강조한다. 질의응답에서는 해외 주식이 국내 주식보다 분석가 커버리지가 적어 저평가 기업을 찾기 쉬우므로 가치가 있다고 답한다. 핵심 메시지: 시장 예측에 의존하지 말고 기업을 꾸준히 발굴해 장기 보유하라.
다듬은 글
my big theory and i think it's valid if you look at 10 companies you'll find one that's mispriced you look at 20 you'll find two you look at 100 you'll find 10. okay now we'll get to the important stuff there's always something to worry about this is the difference this is what happens in the stock market because see everybody's got the brain power to dwell in stock market questions where they have the stomach for it that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about i grew up i went to school grew up with a kid in the 50s in the decade of the 50s there's this big theory that the depression was caused by stock market crash totally wrong less than one percent of americans owned stocks in 29 we had this big time recession in fact it was a depression that's what it wasn't caused by the stock market with the economy went down the federal reserve raised interest rates and we had a big time depression in fact we had several depressions like that from 1850 on we had this is only one of about eight depression since 1850 but people in the people thought the only reason we got the depression was world war two and they said once we get back next time every session we're gonna have a depression and it's gonna be a great depression i never understood that adjective in front of depression you might be crummy depression or bad depression but it was a great depression i never quite quite understood that one the uh so people weren't buying stuck in the 50s because they thought another great depression is gonna happen in addition people were very scared about nuclear warheads and nuclear war in the 50s people building fallout shelters slacking canned goods there's something about going to vermont building a fall shelter putting canned goods in it that you don't buy minnesota mining or you don't buy your garden they just the syllogism just doesn't work out with you buying uh lots of water buying a shotgun buying frozen food that will stay in the freezer with your own generator and you're looking at growth stocks it doesn't seem to work out that way you know and i remember in the 50s i mean i remember literally in classes i was in elementary school in the 50s and they'd come in they'd have one of these airaid drills somebody yell a hat and come they blow a whistle and you get under your desk even then i says i don't think this is going to do a lot of good you know yeah but people were worried about a depression in nuclear war in the 50s and then i mean the warheads they couldn't do much damage back in the 50s now one of these stan countries you know these kakistan and zakistan all these stan guys that have spun off these these freeman building spin-offs from them so i've been doing the uh the uh they didn't lead it was a co-deal with somebody else like goldman sachs they're on the left side of them the uh every one of these little countries says that war has to blow the world up 88 times right who's built a fallout shelter you know we stopped worrying about it i mean there's always something to worry about in the 50s it was depression and nuclear war the 50s was the best decade of this century the stock market except for the 80s only slightly better these are only slightly better people they expect a lot we don't okay it wasn't a great uh decade they just didn't expect much we made it through and uh stock market was terrific uh do you remember when oil went from four to forty remember that period oil went from four to forty and the expert said it was gonna go to a hundred and all the countries of the world gonna go bankrupt and then and the big banks go bankrupt and we're gonna have a great depression and the stock markets go down and you're gonna wind up selling pencils and apples you know the uh well i'm going to oil one from four to forty and the experts said it was gonna go 100.
within two years oil was at 14 the experts now much higher paid at this point are saying it's gonna go to four and we have a depression and people believe it again you know the uh i remember when the money supply was going too fast they said we have a depression that was going too slow we have a depression remember the ldc debt remember the ldc debt all the banks our banks are very smart they lend all their net worth to zimbabwe and botswana and bova and all these countries chile a lot of countries they can't pronounce this is chase manhattan and chemical and manufactures hanover these countries weren't doing so well then they were called undeveloped countries or less developed countries now you have to call them emerging countries it's not politically correct to call anybody an undeveloped country it's like i just found out the other day that the term for somebody that's overweight is laterally challenged you have to see something laterally challenged yeah but these are ldc debt they're all going to go bankrupt and we're going to have a depression uh then the mideast was going in the world remember that one the middle east around the world they weren't going to buy our bonds and market crashing would have depression then japan was going to work man japan was going to have all the assets and they weren't going to buy our bonds and we're going to have depression within three years the nikai dial had gone from 40 000 to 16 000 the banking system was in trouble and people said japan was going to collapse and we're gonna have a depression i mean people on their prayer list the other day they eliminate crippled children mother teresa they're praying for japan i mean you know it's a country with a 15 savings rate you know some bizarre you know commercial real estate global warming uh you know and i think it's the older you get the more nerves you get about these things i think it's very valuable i think while younger people are better investors is they're not worried they haven't heard about all these crises and they're with children i think if you don't have any kids you ought to rent some kids for the weekend you know get a seven-year-old and ask if he knows about the money supply you know how fast he's grown asking he knows about the shape of the yield curve is the wrong shape of the yield curve or that we're 48.3 months into the economic recovery and the average recovery is less 52.3 bucks you know ask an eight-year-old if they know about that eight-year-olds have a very high expectation about the next 20 years that's what you need to do the more you get away from eight rolls the more you weigh for living rolls the more you start reading these crazy things you read over the weekend the in fact from 1955 to 1985 the stock market uh went up a grand total of a thousand points but it was down 800 on mondays so it's down it was there for up 1800 on non-mondays it wasn't an accident the stock market went down october the 1987 was a monday people of the weekend become economists and portfolio strategists you know and they're a bull if they take their lunch on the way to work you know the in fact i knew very well the market was going down in october of 1987 uh dave ellson remembers that my first vacation is going to take in six years and we decided to go to ireland and uh we stayed all these little cottages and play golf and i left on thursday after the close of trademark was down 55 points which wasn't a good start but it was down 55 points and we got over there and because of the time zone we were able to do we wanted to do and get down to cork and called in the market was down to 118.
i said to carolyn if the market goes down on monday we'd better go back but we're already here so uh i'll stay for the weekend so as you know the market went down 508 on monday so i flew home because my fund had gone for i think from 13 billion to 9 billion in two working days and i uh it was uh the trend here is not positive like i could do something about it you know you know the uh but there's something when they call it they wanted to say well what's lingerie doing right now well he's on the tenth hole he's even part of the front nine but you know he's in a trap right now this could be a double bow this could be a quadruple bogey right here could could blow the entire front nine right here you know this is not what they wanted to hear you know so i have no idea when the markets can go down and uh no idea when it's gonna go up i'm totally shocked the market was four thousand two and a half years ago a little while ago it's eight thousand uh i had no idea about this uh very surprisingly but i'll guarantee you the mark will be a lot higher in 15 years it'll be a lot higher than 25 years what it's gonna do next one or two years i don't have any idea and if somebody in this room knows about it they're not telling anybody or they're not in this room they're down in palm springs somewhere you know they've made a billion dollars or they know anything about interest rates there's an interest rate if you can be right five times in a row and ten grand you can have two billion it's not that many people with two billion there's a lot of people predicting these trades do you ever think about that one yeah just five times right in the wrong ten grand two billion it's uh if you write sometimes row you can have the gnp of uh you know the united kingdom you know it's a big number at the uh so i don't worry about that i know we've had uh 96 years a century and the market's fallen 53 times we've had 53 declines of 10 or more so 53 declines in 96 years once every two years we have a 10 decline of the 53 declines 15 1 5 have been 25 so 15 and 96 years but once every six years the market falls 25 more that's what we call a bear market you know you know that and it's going to happen i don't care when it's gonna happen i would love to know i obviously would be very useful to know when it's gonna happen it doesn't make a difference to me corbett drives me a lot higher eight years from now a lot higher 16 years now a lot higher 30 years now that's what i deal with i'll be glad to answer your questions it's great enjoyed it and want to start the questions they don't get the question i'll read the calendar of offerings for free billings for the next month okay do you like international stocks uh uh the question is i always i found i was better overseas than i was domestic because it's just less coverage there's less people following these companies so i think my big theory and i think it's valid if you look at ten companies you'll find one that's mispriced you look at 20 you'll find two you look at 100 you'll find 10.
the person that turns over the most rocks wins the game overseas the numbers are much better it's just not that much coverage so i think international stocks are definitely worth looking at
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