저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 가치투자의 핵심은 IQ가 아니라 세상을 보는 태도이며, 기술주는 거의 공짜에 가까운 가격일 때만 관심 가치가 있다는 취지의 강연/대담. 버핏의 자본 운용 관련 논의: 버크셔는 보험사 플로트 덕분에 자본비용이 0~3~4%로 낮아 10~12% 수익 투자도 큰 가치를 더할 수 있으며, 주주에게 현금을 돌려주기보다 계속 투자할 가능성이 크다고 평가. 월마트 등 대형주 성장성: 장기 고성장 기업은 드물지만 배당할인모형상 5% 장기 성장만으로도 높은 밸류에이션 정당화 가능. 해외 확장 여지가 있다고 언급. 성장과 수익률 관계: 주가가 장기적으로 연 15% 성장해도 시장이 그 사실을 뒤늦게 인식하면 초기 1~2년에 30~40% 수익이 날 수 있어 촉매(실적 발표 등)를 고려해야 한다는 설명. 기술주 접근: 버핏은 기술 변화 예측이 어려워 기술주를 피하지만, 빌 밀러는 가치투자자가 외면하는 기술주를 저평가 영역에서 본다. 그레엄 본인은 현금 대비 저가이고 현금 소진이 적은 기술주를 ‘거의 무료 옵션’으로 볼 수 있다고 언급. 리스크: 사업 미래를 전혀 예측할 수 없으면 투자 근거가 없으며, 단기 시장 방향은 예측하기 어렵다고 강조. 개별 종목 추천이나 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
i can vouch for that it's not iq points being good it's really an attitude of how you look at look at the world and earn much greater returns so what is uh what is the reason for him to manage his ability with the most managing billions for the shareholders well he's worth 40 billion himself so you know i don't know who's giving it back to uh you know i guess he'd rather run it than somebody else uh sort of a it's a partnership that he has with his shareholders and he's running their money along with his and so i don't think he you know um he does have a benefit in size right now for instance he doesn't really look for stocks all that much although if he finds a large cap stock that's cheap he'll still buy it but he's really looking to swallow whole companies now which is at the stage he's at given the amount of money that he has to run um and so i don't i don't think that's a realistic opportunity for him given the fact that he's owned so much of the company he did say he's going to consider returning cash to shareholders if you can't find something a relatively new teacher which is i think the first time he said that right right it really depends uh you know a lot of his money is run through insurance companies and so if he can have uh if he can create in other words if if he can write insurance and break even okay in other words his loss ratio is 100 or less then his borrowing costs are next to nothing and so his cost of capital is very low because he he basically has all these insurance businesses and so his hurdle rate might not have to be 15 in other words because of sort of the leverage of using the insurance companies even if he takes investments that are earning 10 or 12 percent he's adding a huge amount of incremental value to the equity stake in in the firm if he can put it to work at that level and i would guess that he's not returning any money anytime soon i think i think that he'll always find something to put it to work in to beat his cost of capital which i think varies from zero to three or four percent so i think you know i don't see that happening but you can give me a call if it happens yes well i'm i'm not that familiar with the walmart story although i know they have a lot of international opportunities where they're expanding i think they can still expand here um and so i think you know when i when i briefly looked at their uh growth opportunities for the next you know five years i think they had enough uh if you have a if you use a dividend discount model uh it doesn't take the you know when rich business was here there are almost no companies that grow 15 or 20 percent a year odd infinite you know they're very few that can do it over a 10-year period and you don't really need that growth anyway because any if you throw it into any dividend discount model and say you know in perpetuity we're going to grow 10 percent a year uh you get some ridiculously high p e ratios that that are justified and you know even growing over a long period of time at five percent you you can have a pretty high valuation you can justify pretty high valuation right i mean there's natural growth in the economy let's say gnp grows two or three percent a year throw on some inflation you have some growth there and then if they can grow incrementally two or three percent you're getting up to decent size growth rate so yes it's not the same as any of these things that charlie 479 wrote up uh and that's why i was saying the large caps might um well it's an important concept because if you say listen i could see over the next five years uh walmart growing its value at 15 you know and then goes to a slower level you know a lower level uh if people perceive that and there are limited places to put your money when you can you'd only invest in a 10-year bond at four and change percent or even if we use our hurdle rate which is six percent uh you know people may discount that back and say i'll take an eight percent return and you may get a big chunk of this this year you may you may earn 30 or 40 on your money if you're following this if you're saying if if a stock will go from 10 to 20 in five years right which is about uh roughly a uh 15 14 annualized return okay and you're competitive you're you're competing with six percent annual returns or and you and someone figures out that they think it is going to be worth 20 in a few years you the stock may move to 13 in other words in the first year they may say look 13 to 20 in four years is still a good rate of return better than i can get elsewhere okay so a year from paying 10 even though you think it's going to grow 15 you in your first year of holding you made 30 percent because the market now agrees with you that hey this is going to be worth 25 years remember we discussed this and so therefore i i i can front load a lot of my profits in the first year or two as soon as people realize what i realized so this is a way that you figure out that it can only you know increase in value 15 a year or 14 a year which is really what this is yet you can still make 30 percent or you know 40 over two year a year and a half or something like that because people realize what you saw even though the growth rate is significantly lower in increase in value so it depends what discount you're getting it's important to keep in mind when you're making your projections that whether you have a catalyst that you think everyone will see what you see now the catalyst may be a year from now even though your valuation work is done three or five years out so if it's discounted back you can make that money you don't sometimes need a catalyst just say listen they're going to earn that money the catalyst is they came through with the earnings that i expected and you can get make the money that way you shameless cloner back in the day adam your circle of confidence was so expensive um well if you're asking warren buffett as opposed to me i would uh uh warren buffett does have uh very significant circles of confidence in you know financial stocks and uh in in all kinds of businesses that he can really understand uh over time and i think the way you you get that is really by researching them under you know picking businesses that are simple that you can understand he he's kept away from technology uh specifically because he doesn't understand where it's going he doesn't understand what's it going to look like in five years intuitively he doesn't get that now if you listen to bill miller has anyone heard him speak around here so it's a great opportunity to hear bill miller bill miller's bill miller said is sort of i'm going to look at technology because most because of what buffett has said uh most value investors don't even look at technology stocks so i'm going to apply value discipline to technology try to understand as much as i can and you know there's a great opportunity there so it's not buffett saying value investors don't buy technology it's that that's just not where he feels comfortable uh projecting the future and and bill miller takes the other approach saying look a lot of most value investors won't even look in these areas and i'm gonna try to buy cheap technology stocks the only way i personally joel would look at technology stocks in general is when we have cash situations where you're buying the technology almost almost for free and there's not a big burn rate and things of that nature um if there's a technology i think i can understand over long periods of time perhaps um but i haven't found that one yet so yeah joe so is the real issue with circle of confidence not the complexity of the business but the complexity of trying to figure out where that business will be in x number of years well if you understand the business you can understand that you can't understand where it's going in five years there's so many different things right you can understand that there's no one who knows right so that's one thing and if there's no one who knows you have no business investing in it uh so just understanding the business is one is only one component you can understand the business and and one of the practicalities of the business would be you know no one really can predict it's it's sort of over a short period of time i ca i can't tell you where the st you know i could say gee i'm finding a lot of cheap stocks out there but i really can't tell you where the market's going to be in a year or if i did i'd be being silly uh because even if it's cheap now it can get a lot cheaper over the next year i can't really tell you where it's going to go and if you don't know long term where a business is going then you really have no basis to invest i mean if you're buying something at even five times earnings but you don't know where earnings are going you know they could have or or go you know be down 75 percent uh over five years then you have no basis on which to invest other than looking at hard assets and things of that nature you know what i was talking about is a technology company which i know nothing about yet i think management management's incentive is not to dissipate the cash they have on the balance sheet it's selling at five dollars it's got five dollars in cash and it's got a business that's not burning money that may turn into something you know it's almost like a free option i might look at it or inexpensive option um and so there's different ways to approach it so there are ways to to to make investments there is a price that you might be interested in in almost anything even if there is uncertainty as long as the uncertainty isn't well it's it's you're gonna have huge negative returns over a period of time so it can be done uh it's not usually what i look for it's it's usually simple businesses that i understand steve um wow um uh i can't i can't answer for buffett other than i think that he is an incredible intellect who will still you know have a lot of horses running up there more than we do uh and will not be deterred by more competition looking for the things that that he's doing i i don't think he's particularly worried about that i mean there are certain principles of what he said he said it's really not iq points and i i can vouch for that it's not iq points being good it's really an attitude of how you look at look at the world
Comments 0