There Are No Sure Things | Don't Outthink the Market | Howard Marks

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결론: 장기 인덱스 적립과 보유가 핵심이며, 단기 시장 예측과 매매 타이밍은 손실을 키운다. 시장 장기 수익률: 미국 주식시장은 약 90년간 연 10% 수준의 수익률을 기록했다고 언급. 복리 효과: 연 10%면 약 7년에 두 배, 세금을 내지 않는다는 가정하에 70년 동안 약 1000배가 된다는 예시를 제시. 실행 방법: 여러 주식 인덱스 펀드(S&P500, 러셀2000, 신흥국, 중국 등)를 분산 보유하고 그대로 둘 것을 권고. 중국 전망: 손주 세대가 성인이 될 무렵에는 중국이 세계 최대 경제가 될 것으로 보고 중국 노출을 권장. 매매 리스크: 시장에서 자주 사고파는 것은 장기 목표 달성 가능성을 낮추며, 바닥에서 매도하는 것이 가장 큰 실수라고 강조. 확실성의 함정: 확실해 보이는 것에 과도하게 베팅하면 큰 손실이 날 수 있다는 경고. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 없음.

다듬은 글

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01. if you can make 10 a year and if you can avoid paying any taxes so don't sell your money will double every seven years if you find something that you think is a sure thing and you bet disproportionately on it because it's a certainty and it turns out not to be a certainty that's how you lose a lot of money you shameless cloner want to track portfolios of famous value investors like warren buffett see their buys and sells current and historical holdings just visit valueinvesting.guru it is valueinvesting.guru link in the description the most important thing is to start an investment program while you're young continue it as you grow and don't screw it up that's my that's my most important recommendation how do you screw it up you tamper with it too much and of course as i mentioned some time ago the biggest screw-up you can do is to sell out at the bottom and so most people are not really suited for getting in and out of the market and i i i said that i think that it's if that's how you're going to practice defense it's very problematic if you look at the stock market the stock market has returned about 10 a year for the last 90 years and uh if you if you can make 10 a year and if you can avoid paying any taxes so don't sell your money will double every seven years money compounds at 10 a year it doubles in seven years so let's say your grandchildren are five and they're gonna they're gonna live to to uh to 75.

02. you've got a 70-year program ahead of them that means if you can do 10 a year and not pay taxes both of which are his heroic assumptions that it's going to double ten times so you put in a dollar today the kid is five right uh 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 a dollar deposited when the kid is five will be a thousand dollars 70 years from now just don't screw that up don't get in the way of of the compounding machine you know uh i think it was mark twain maybe i don't know albert einstein einstein said the greatest invention in history is compound interest just get out of the way don't screw it up so so i think that uh you don't have to get fancy you know with with other things they and and so uh that what and by the way that means index funds really an s p index fund a russell 2000 index fund you know you want to you want to get maybe a a emerging market fund uh you want to you might want to have some exposure to the emerging markets to smaller companies certainly to china which is probably gonna be look before those grandchildren become adults china will be the biggest economy in the world so you want to have exposure to china and perhaps the other emerging markets so i think my advice is a variety of equity index funds which complement and round out each other and then leave it alone you know they when when uh when automation uh began to make great inroads into employment as they did in the uh as it did in the in the arts and especially the teens they used to talk about the factory of the future in the factory in the future there's one man and one dog the dog's job is to keep the man from touching the machinery and the man's job is to feed the dog it's the same with the grandchildren my job is to is to create a portfolio for them and keep them from putting their hands on it and i think that that i think that that is a formula which is sure to work in the long run and anything you do in the short run to try to out-think the market is probably going to reduce your likelihood of achieving your long-run run goals my dad used to tell the story about the guy who was the habitual gambler and every week he would go to the track and lose all his money so one day he heard about a race with only one horse so he went out to the track and he put all his money down and halfway around the track the horse jumped over the fence and ran away the point is there are no short things and if you this goes back to the mark twain if you find something that you think is a sure thing and you bet disproportionately on it because it's a certainty and it turns out not to be a certainty that's how you lose a lot of money