저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거는 현재의 대규모 양적완화와 재정적자가 전례 없는 위험이며, 역사적으로 이런 통화 팽창을 오래 버틴 나라는 없었다고 경고한다. 제로에 가까운 금리와 초저금리 장기채 발행은 기이하다고 평가한다. 앞으로 10년의 주식 수익률은 지난 10년보다 낮을 것이라고 전망하며, 실질 수익률이 하락할 것이라고 본다. 과도한 참여자 증가와 광기, 어리석은 보상 체계 때문에 이런 투자 환경이 지속되기 어렵다는 논리다. 나스닥의 버블 여부에 대해서는 버블이 언제 터질지는 아무도 모른다고 답한다. 다만 나스닥이 과거 같은 급등을 다시 보일 것이라는 보장은 없다고 하며, 애플의 가치 등 최근 금융 역사상 전례 없는 현상이라고 언급한다. 중국에 대해서는 지난 30년간 어떤 대국도 기록하지 못한 실질 성장을 이뤘다고 평가하며, 자신도 중국 투자 경험이 성공적이었고 앞으로도 그럴 것 같다고 말한다. 중국의 사례는 통제적 정부와 자본주의가 공존할 수 있음을 보여준다는 견해를 밝힌다. 자산별 구체적 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 제시하지 않았고, 대부분 장기적·거시적 관점의 발언이다.
다듬은 글
nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing we're doing now for a very extended period without some trouble so paul goodson who was a bachelor's degree in science in 1975 asked you expect the next 10 years to have lower returns in the equity markets than the last 10. it doesn't give us an idea why the answer is yes could you give us a hint as to why that might happen yes because so many people are in it and the frenzy is so great and the systems of management the reward systems are so foolish that that i don't think it's going to work at all i don't think i i think the returns will go down yes in real terms the returns will be lower so uh schuler coolin bachelor's degree in 1995 uh is is going to ask about political economy so two different questions what do you think of the combinations of quantitative easing and large fiscal deficit and where are they going to lead us well there i've got a very simple answer and that is it's one of the most interesting questions anybody could ask and we're in very uncharted waters we have nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing we're doing now for a very extended period without some trouble and i i think we're we're very near the edge of playing with fire it is remarkable how much we've expanded the money supply how low interest rates are and how little initial response there's been on remarkable not too strong a word astounding would be more like it i will let you choose the adjective charlie it's unbelievably extreme some european government borrowed money recently for some tiny little fraction of one percent for a hundred years now that is weird so kind of a lunatic would loan money to a european government for a hundred years less than one percent so can i can i ask you a question that sort of falls out of this but from a different perspective which is that for a lot of time a lot of the policy making in the world was because capital is scarce for a long time the world economies were poor and since world war ii we've been creating wealth at a very very high rate have the rules change to some extent because in some sense the developed economies are just very wealthy well of course it's changed to some extent because the developing county economies are very wealthy it's changed enormously in my lifetime advanced civilization has gotten ahead faster than any century that exists before and nothing else is even close it's utterly without president in real terms it just it's unbelievable i watched the whole damn thing practically because i've lived so long and it's been absolutely astounding i can remember having a five-course filet mignon dinner in omaha for 60 cents when i was a little boy the world has really changed so our our next question which is the converse wealth can be high because we've accumulated a lot of wealth or because the value of that wealth is high so doctor uh so david whitner who is an associate degree in 1975 asked is it nasdaq in a bubble and will it blow up and do we know when is the nasdaq in a bubble well i i nobody knows when bubbles are going to blow up but just because it's nasdaq doesn't mean it'll have another run like this one very quickly again this has been unbelievable again there's never been anything quite like it if you stop to think about it think what apple is worth compared to john d rockefeller's old oil empire it's been the most dramatic thing that's almost ever happened in the entire world history of finance the other thing that's really remarkable the last 30 years of china they have had real economic growth at a rate for 30 years that no big country has ever had before in the history of the world and who did that a bunch of communist chinese now that is really remarkable so so if you're studying finance you got a lot of strange things to account for so bob regenthoff who has a phd in 1979 from marinara engineering asked so how would you rate investing in china with the current political tensions or you invested in china through the ownership of american companies that do business in china well i'm of course i'm invested partly in american companies that do business in china including coca-cola but i'm also invested very significantly in china through the uh the uh management of lilu whom the monger family backed heavily when he formed a little private equity firm to invest in china and he has had a very successful record and that's made me follow very closely the leading companies in china and of course i've had very successful experience there and i think it's likely to continue china the chinese story is the damnedest thing that it's a damn decision that ever happened to a big country in terms of economics no other big country ever got ahead this fast for that long and does that say that sort of the politics don't matter so much or yeah that's a very interesting observation what that shows is exactly right who would have guessed that a bunch of communist chinese run by one party would have the best economic record the world has ever seen of course it's extreme and i think it proves that you know it doesn't we americans would like to think that our free expression and allowing all kinds of opinion and all kinds of criticism of the government is totally essential part of the economy and what the chinese have proved is you can have a screamingly successful economy with a fairly controlling government all the government has to do is is a is create a lot of smithy and count smithy and capitalism if you do that having a sort of a controlling one-party government doesn't matter that's not a fashionable thing to say but i think it's true
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