저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거는 금 대신 생산적 자산인 우량 기업 주식을 보유하는 것이 낫다는 입장이며, 개인 투자자가 버크셔 주식을 금으로 바꿀 이유는 없다고 답함. 버핏은 금의 내재가치를 이해하지 못하며, 땅에서 캐낸 금속을 다시 땅에 묻는 것보다 좋은 기업의 미래 현금흐름이 낫다고 설명함. 예측에 대해서는 버핏이 시장과 언론에서 예측 수요가 크다는 점을 지적하며, 특정 대형 사건에 베팅하는 것은 현명한 정책이 아니라고 말함. 캘리포니아 대지진 등 재난은 보험으로 대비하지만 경제적 생존 방법으로는 보지 않는다고 함. 멍거는 극단적 상황(예: 1939년 빈의 유대인 상황)에서만 이동 가능한 부의 형태가 유용할 수 있으며, 그 외에는 금을 소유할 이유가 없다고 봄. 질문자는 재난 시나리오와 금 보유를 언급했으나 두 사람은 이를 명확히 지지하지 않음. 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
well i can't imagine ever exchanging any of my shares for gold coins good afternoon mr buffett mr younger kathleen lane from new york i have a question out of left field for you you say you like to be entertained this question will entertain you it's also a serious question i know you don't like to speculate about the future you won't do so i appreciate that but some people do for example edgar cayce was one he didn't pick stocks or investments but if he had he would have probably gone to that farmland that you were talking about earlier this morning because he had a dream that in the year 2158 omaha would be located on the west coast of the united states and you know how beachfront property goes so it would be a good bet it won't be good for our super catastrophe business if that happens as you both said earlier we're living in an extraordinary time financially especially you can't help it but here disaster scenarios concerning the impending collapse of worldwide financial markets about major physical changes in the world as we know it about a future when the world's resources will be better measured by their prospects for ensuring our basic survival then their value is speculative commodities that's where that farmland would come in again nobody does better what you two do but even if your investment acumen wasn't what it is i would invest with you because you're honest in short i came here to ask you what would you tell a single mother to exchange her berkshire sharehold for gold coins when under what circumstances well i can't imagine ever exchanging any of my shares for gold coins uh but you know i i would rather trust in the intrinsic value of a bunch of really fine businesses run by good managers selling products that people like to buy and have like to buy for a long time and them exchanging their future efforts the the money that comes from their wages four seas candy or coca-cola or whatever then take some piece of metal that people dig out of the ground in south africa and then put back in the ground at fort knox you know after transporting it and insuring it and everything i i've never been able to get it real excited about going on my dad was a huge enthusiast for a gold standard so i mean i grew up in a family where gold was revered if not possessed and i would i it it i i gave it its full chance but i just didn't i never understood what the intrinsic value of of of gold is and and uh um you know we'll sell you some at borsheims but i would never exchange the idea of exchanging a producing asset for a non-producing asset uh would be pretty pretty foreign to me and i would say this in terms of the of predictions and i know the spirit in which you ask the question but there's just there's a market out there all the time uh and and people love to hear predictions i mean if i said i was going to offer a bunch of predictions today i mean we would we would have a million people here i mean that they they're dying to have predictions and speeches at rotary clubs or trade associations or whatever that's they they just plain love it and that's what a whole industry is built upon you know the people coming out of washington that that talk about political predictions and the i don't read those in the paper at all because it's just it's space fillers uh basically and uh uh you mentioned edgar casey ben graham and knew edgar casey pretty well but i i just have never seen any utility to any of that at all there will be some huge surprises in the world uh there's no question about that but i don't i don't think that betting on any specific one is is a very smart policy in fact our we usually bet against him in terms of super catastrophes we know there will be a 7.0 or greater quake in california in the next 50 years we don't know where it'll be or when it'll be anything like that we're willing to pay out a lot of money if it happens tomorrow and because people do worry about catastrophe and in this case it's perfectly proper with with insured values but it it just isn't any way in in our view to get through economic life charlie well i suppose the one time when a single mother might want to own gold compared to anything else as if she faced conditions like a jew in vienna in 1939 or i mean there are conditions you can imagine where some form of transportable wealth would be useful compared to to anything else but absent those extreme conditions i think it's for the birds now silver it's hard to think of anything other than fleeing the country
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