저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 린치가 자신이 25년간 쓴 투자 원칙을 소개. 1) 자신이 보유한 회사를 11살에게 2분 내 설명할 수 있어야 함 2) 경제·금리·주식시장 예측은 불가능하므로 시간 낭비 3) 사실(재고, 구리가격, 철도 화물 등)에 근거해 투자 4) 이미 많이 떨어졌다고 바닥이라 단정 금지(Kaiser Industries 사례) 5) 이미 많이 올랐다고 고점이라 단정 금지(Philip Morris 사례). 장기 보유와 충분한 리서치를 강조.
다듬은 글
Peter Lynch a legendary figure in the world of investing he's here to share some key insights and lessons from his successful career in the stock market I what do you do if this thing goes from 12 to 9 do you you buy more do you walk around the block I mean do you call your friends I mean what the hell you do with something like that people buy this stuff now if you own a piece of like that you will never make money never these are the key points that I I've been using for 25 years I think they're true then I think they're true today I think they'll be true in 25 years and I think that's what successful investing is all about and uh the first point is know what you own I can't believe how many people own stocks they couldn't describe to an 11-year-old in 2 minutes or less why they own this thing or what it is the only if you actually pin them down and you put a whip to them they'd say the sucker going up that's the only reason they have for own and this is the kind of this is the normal kind of company that people buy this is a a very simple story I own a lot of companies like this they make a relatively mundane product it's a 1 megabit SRAM Coss bipolar risk floating point g i processor with optimizing compiler 16bit dual Port memory Unix operating system four Wet Stone Mega flop poly silicone emitter with a high bandwidth that's important 6 GHz double metalization communication protocol asynchronous backward compatibility peripheral bus architecture four-wave inter Le memory token ring interchangeable back plane and they do it in 15 NS of capability now if you want a piece of like that you will never make money never Su come with more wet Stones less wet Stones big Mega flop what do you do if this thing goes from 12 to 9: you you buy more do you walk around the block I mean you call your friends I mean what the hell you do with something like that people buy this stuff I mean I buy stuff like Dunkin Donuts and uh stoping shop and CVS and made money in all those and no one looked at it so that's the kind of stocks I like to buy but I'm telling you people don't do this and I'm talking sophisticated people unsophisticated people they don't know what the company is what's the story and it's very important to know it because it doesn't always work and you have to keep posted now here's a big Point remember this point it's f child to predict the economy interest rates and stock market I mean people keep trying to do this I mean this would be useful I would love to know when going a recession I'd love to know when interest rates are go up or down I'd love to know when the stock market's going up that would be helpful I would like to get next year's Wall Street Journal unfortunately you don't get it Peter Lynch emphasizes several key points about successful investing in this passage he highlights the importance of knowing what you own in your Investment Portfolio and cautions against buying stocks without understanding the underlying companies he also mentions the futility of trying to predict economic Trends interest rates and stock market movements Lynch prefers investing in companies with simple understandable stories like Dunkin Donuts and Stop and Shop rather than complex technical companies overall his advice focuses on the importance of informed and long-term investing strategies I remember in 1982 we had uh 20% prime rate 15% long governments double digit unemployment double digit inflation I don't remember anybody telling me about that 1980 I don't remember anybody tell me about that 1981 but ' 83 I remember they said well the economy's bounced back recession 85 85 they said we have recession 86 they said for sure we have recession 88 they said' 89 for sure we have recession then 90 we're supposed to have the soall soft Landing which we never had so I've always said if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics you've wasted 10 minutes all you need to know about the stock market is it goes up and it goes down it goes down a lot and that's all you need to know again it'd be terrific to know what's the economy but I deal with facts if inventories are going up if copper prices are going down if room occupy is going the wrong way people building too many hotels I look at freight car loadings I own railroad stocks I deal with facts I don't deal what people tell me something's going to happen in the future you might as well call the psychic hotline for that so you got plenty of time this is through a Sally May this through Dunkin Donuts this through a stopping Shop people are so insistent I'm that way too I have to fight it they have to buy a stock let's say let's say let's see it's now 501 I haven't found a stock yet today you know I got to find a stock Before Sunset that you know the you could buy Walmart 10 years after Walmart went public let say you're a very careful investor you waited you said I don't know if this company can make it you waited for Walmart to roll it out could by Walmart 10 years after they went public and made 30 times your money 30 times your money 10 years after they went public they're only in 15% of the United States 15 they had saturated the5 you can say why can't they go to 17 why can't they go to 19 I mean why don't I take a leap of faith here why can't they go to 26 all they did for the next three decades was roll it out you could about Walmart if the day they went public body would made 500 times your M you waited 10 years in Walmart made 30 times your mon you got plenty of time in this business uh here's a good one it's gone down this much already can't go any lower I remember when Polaroid went from 140 to about 107 people said if you ever get Polaroid under 100 you got to buy it you just back up the truck buy the stock stock you get to 110 they rally you know fall 103 got 112 got 105 said gets under 100 bipolar Polaroid broke 100 people start buying it and within nine months the stock was 18 I saw the same thing with Avon products so just saying it's gone down this far you know how much I mean it's crazy but you know it can keep going in fact I tried this out Kaiser Industries I was a new Analyst at Fidelity and we were about to buy the biggest block ever of Kaiser Industries the stock had gone from 29 to 17 we're about to buy the largest block ever in the history of the American Stock Exchange we bought I know 10 or 15 million shares at 15 and 3/4 I said my God the Stock's gone from 29 to 17 how much lower can it go we bought this enormous block at 15 and 3/4 so I called my mother and I said Mom I guess like Ka un it's 10 so about 3 months later said you got to buy this it's going from 29 to 10 how much lower go well it went to 9 it went to eight it went to seven it went to six it went to five it went to four now fortunately me this happened very rapidly or I'd be working at the Stop and Shop bag and behind the lines state of fale so fortunately this was compressed in only about 6 months so I had to go to the fun and say I was a little bit early on this at 15 and 3 quarters said uh we call this premature in the business the uh had a correction which you know is a euphemism losing a lot of money rapidly so I said let's check this again the stocks 4 they own 45% of Kaiser Aluminum they own 59% of Kaiser steel they own 38% of kais cement they own all of Kaiser Electronics all of Kaiser broadcasting she had seven TV sets they own Jeep they Kaiser fiberglass said about Kaiser Santa gravel they had a bunch of other Kaisers and they had no debt now in this room because I know Freeman Billings is very interested in financial stocks no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt I think you have to give some kind of distinguished service award some did that but they had no debt I said it's not going to go to zero you know I was wrong when I said it can't go below 15 so we hung on and within three years they gave out the shares in Kaiser steel gave out the shares in Kaiser SP gave out the shares in Kaiser steel and aluminum and they sold off all the businesses you got about $55 a share but if you didn't know the story and the stock went from 15 to11 and you're just saying how much low can it go when it went to 9 went to8 you you would have gone so you can't just say you can't go any lower because I saw Taco Bell go from 14 to1 in 1974 and they had no debt and making 60 cents a share there's a coral are to that that's even more dangerous if it's gone this high already how can it possibly go lower uh higher sorry that Philip Morris adjusted for splits sold for 12 cents in 1951 then it goes to 60 cents in 1961 it it goes up fivefold and you say to yourself how much higher can this go g up fivefold they missed the power of Maro they missed the there's 220 countries in the world they miss the cash flow of the company they missed everything this stock was 100 bagger after going up fivefold but people sold it just saying how much higher can it go can't go any higher they did the same at Home Depot they did the same with Toys R R Us I did the same thing Toys R R Us just saying it can't go any higher it's gone this much already that's very dangerous and don't don't use that one it's a very bad thing to do if you enjoyed this content make sure to subscribe and hit the notification Bell to be notified of future videos just like this one to continue learning about investing watch this video right here in conclusion Peter Lynch reminds us to be cautious about common misconceptions when it comes to investing his stories about stocks going lower or higher than expected emphasize the importance of thorough research and avoiding knee-jerk reactions keep these lessons in mind as you navigate the world of Finance
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