저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 달러 기축통화 지위는 머지않아 약화될 것이며, 원자재 강세장은 장기간 이어지고 금·은은 조정 시 매수 대상이라는 주장. 달러 패권 약화: 미국이 제재를 남발해 달러의 중립성이 훼손되어 각국이 달러 대체 수단을 찾고 있다고 주장. 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이며, 과거 기축통화였던 영국의 사례를 들어 기축통화 지위는 영원하지 않다고 봄. 찰리 멍거가 100년 내 달러 소멸을 전제로 한다는 발언을 인용하며 동의하는 취지. 디지털 화폐: 모든 화폐가 결국 컴퓨터(디지털)상으로 옮겨갈 것이며 중국 등 여러 나라와 미국도 이를 추진 중이라고 봄. 다만 관료들은 통제력을 잃기 싫어하므로 정부가 대중을 통제하는 수단으로 쓸 것이라고 경계. 인플레이션과 경기침체: 유가가 1년간 100% 상승하고 휘발유 가격이 4달러를 넘은 점을 언급. 금리 인상과 인플레이션으로 향후 경기침체가 올 가능성이 높다고 전망하며, 미국은 12년간 경기침체가 없었던 만큼 시기상 이미 늦었다고 봄. 스탠스베리 리서치의 경기 예측을 참고하라고 권유. 우크라이나 전쟁과 증시: 전쟁이 곧 진정될 것으로 보며, 종전 시 큰 반등 랠리가 나올 수 있다고 예상. 다만 그 랠리가 마지막 랠리가 될 수 있어 매도 타이밍을 노려야 한다고 함. 러시아 주식은 종전 후 저평가된 기회가 될 것이라고 언급. 원자재 강세장: 원자재는 약 10년간 부진했으나 공급과 수요가 어긋나 있어 상승장이 오래 갈 것으로 봄. 각국의 통화 증발이 인플레이션을 부르고, 전기차는 일반 차량보다 구리·납을 훨씬 많이 써 수요가 늘어나는데 광산 투자는 오랫동안 부족했다고 지적. 금·은: 금이 온스당 2,000달러를 넘었으나 안전자산으로서 아직 더 오를 수 있다는 질문에, 본인은 현재는 매수하지 않지만 가격이 조정되면 금과 은을 더 살 것이라고 밝힘. 은이 금보다 상대적으로 싸다고 언급하며 은 매수 의향을 보임. 금은 달러 등 주요 통화 기준으로 사상 최고치라고 설명. 에너지 공급: 유럽이 러시아 대신 다른 곳에서 석유를 구할 수 있지만 세계 석유량은 한정적이며, 러시아가 가격을 낮춰 다른 구매자를 끌어들일 것으로 전망. 결국 누군가는 석유를 사게 된다고 봄.
다듬은 글
in this podcast we will discuss about the us dollar will die and it will fall from its position as the world's reserve currency sooner than expected says jim rogers best-selling author of hot commodities since the russian invasion of ukraine rogers tells our daniella campone that ukraine being inducted into nato is the underlying cause of russia's actions now we're paying a gigantic price for the actions taken by u.s elected officials he says and when the war is over russian stocks will be an undervalued opportunity other sovereign nations are frantically coming up with something to compete with the u.s dollar due to economic sanctions being ramped up in recent years rogers asserts i cannot see the world having 100 computer money he concludes saying governments will use it to control the masses for the dollar currency what's going on in the global right now and will the us dollar collapse i want to bring up a recent quote of yours gem um that struck me you know i just mentioned the us is expected to announce more sanctions on russia but you say what is happening with the u.s dollar is the end of the u.s dollar because an international currency is supposed to be neutral but in washington they are now changing the rules now if in washington does not like you they put sanctions on you and you cannot use u.s dollars yes it's outrageous everybody knows what the world's international currency is supposed to be anybody can use it for anything but now washington in the last few years has started putting sanctions on people danielle it is ruining america running parts of america because now everybody is frantically looking for something to compete with the dollar the chinese the russians the indians the brazilians there are the per the iranians are all working as fast as they can to come up with something to compete with the us dollar for political reasons also economic reasons i mean america is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world but we're shooting ourselves at the foot every day this means that now you know soon sooner than it would have been the us dollar will no longer be the world's medium of exchange in the international currency that's not good for the u.s it's certainly not it was not good for britain which used to be the world's international currency when they lost that status they lost a lot of things it makes me think of a recent quote i read from charlie munger who said he he's working with the thesis that in a hundred years time there will be no us dollar well no currency has lasted forever no currency no number one currencies ever lasted forever if you go back and look at history we've had international currencies of the world's medium of exchange maybe they lasted 80 years 100 years 150 years max they've all changed it's changed over and over and over ever since the beginning of time the u.s has been on top for a while but now as i said we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and now we will not let the u.s dollar stay neutral now we're using it as a political or an instrument of war so that means nobody in his right mind who thinks they might across the u.s someday is going to want to use us dollars you know i don't think i'm ever going to cross the u.s dollar are you at the u.s the state department but i worry now i've got to figure out something else some other place to keep my money jim do you think whatever comes next and replaces it will be in the form of a digital dollar in whatever currency well there's no question that everybody if all money is going to be on the on the computer soon in china you can't even take a taxi with money there you can't take attacks with their money you can't buy an ice cream with money you have to have your money on the on the computer every country is working on it including the u.s washington dc so soon all money is going to be on the computer but i am sure and yellow when the money is here and washington says okay this is money now i don't think that the bureaucrats in washington would say okay but if you want to use somebody else's money you want to use those things over there you can bureaucrats don't like to lose control they don't like to lose power they don't like to lose monopoly looking at oil prices are nearing 100 gain year over year and gasoline and prices in the us reached over four dollars and the highest level uh since 08.
so i was reading that in recent cycles when oil gained a hundred percent in in a one-year period including 08 a recession occurred the fears of a recession concern you of course it's been 12 years since we had the last recession in the u.s that's the longest in american history so we're overdue just on a time basis i mean it could last 20 years who said it has to couldn't go on forever but it never has so i am sure because of inflation higher which will drive interest rates higher we're going to have a recession in the foreseeable future uh i'm not trying to scare people and just tell them that's the way it's always worked since the beginning of time so yes we're going to have a recession probably fairly soon you you know you should watch to read stansberry they'll tell you when the recession is coming they're smarter than i am and when they when the recession comes a lot of us are going to get hurt i hope i'll survive i hope we all survive but some people are going to get hurt i believe you recently said jim that you know once the war is over the stock market could see another hurrah but then there'd be a downturn events well that's my view i'm not good at mark italia but my view is something is gonna cause this thing in ukraine to calm down fairly soon it's not doing putin any good it's not doing anybody any good so who knows what if he can find a way to save face things will stop that will lead to a big rally especially since central banks are not so aggressive right now we'll have to let the big rally be the last rally i hope that if it works that way that i'm smart enough to sell that that last rally big it'll probably be a big rally because then people say gosh nothing can point the stock market now and then it'll be the end well let's look at a commodities jim obviously uh you're probably the greatest commodities expert on the planet uh you know everything from wheat to nickel gold as we're speaking right now over two thousand dollars an ounce everything soaring in the commodity space how long does this go on for well probably for a while now commodities have been had a decade or so where they were in the tank for many reasons while people were putting their money into bonds and stocks and property in some in some countries um i was so i would suspect since supply and demand have gotten out of whack in most commodities that the commodity bull market will last a long time they're printing a lot of money they're going to continue to print money money printing has always led to inflation and if you own the things that go up in price you do well plus their fundamental change is taking place in the world electric cars use four times or several times as much copper and lead as regular cars so the demand for a lot of stuff is going to be going up and nobody has been opening lead mines or compromise in a long time daniella so we're going to see higher prices you know looking at gold i said we're over 2 000 an ounce a lot of investors saying that's great but you know why in this context context wouldn't gold be at three thousand thirty five hundred four thousand a lot of investors frustrated with gold um since shouldn't it be you know the safe haven bid right now of choice well i own gold i mean i've got you know a little gold right here right here on the table got a little silver right here on the table i'm an old peasant and us old peasants know we better have some gold and silver when things go wrong i'm not buying at the moment because you just pointed out it's going through the roof if i were buying anything i would buy silver now because it's cheaper i'm not buying either right now but when they go down again i hope i'm smart enough to buy more gold and more silver yes they have lagged what many people would think but daniella gold is at an all-time high it's certainly in your euros and most international currencies so it's not as old gold has been sitting in the corner doing nothing and i will buy more of both when they calm down do you think that the europeans will keep buying uh oil and counting on russia for energy or will this cause a change well i got about there well somewhere you have some you got some spare oil you can sell them uh you know the problem is there's only so much oil in the world and europe will buy wherever it can get it but somebody's got i mean if europe buys this oil from libya well that's okay but then the russians are going to sell oil to other people who were buying it from libya before well there's an international market and somebody we all need oil we all need energy so somebody's going to buy it somewhere the russians have already started cutting the prices and that's attractive to some people
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