저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 현재는 약세장 중이지만 역사상 가장 나쁜 약세장은 아직 오지 않았으며, 향후 더 큰 하락과 고금리에 따른 심각한 경기침체가 예상된다. 약세장 진단: S&P 500이 고점 대비 20% 하락해 기술적으로 약세장 상태이며, 최악의 약세장은 아직 남아 있다고 주장. 기존 약세장 하락폭(최소 50%)을 감안하면 추가 30% 이상 하락 여지가 있다고 봄. 부채·버블 근거: 2008년 위기는 과도한 부채 때문이었고 지금은 부채가 그때보다 훨씬 크다. 미국 부채는 2009년 이후 여러 배 증가했고 일본 등 다수 국가도 부채가 급증. 밸류에이션이 매우 높고 신규 투자자가 대거 유입된 점도 위험 요인. 침체 전망: 2008년 이후 13년간 큰 위기가 없었던 것은 미국 역사상 가장 긴 기간이며 이미 역사적 기준으로 조정이 늦었다는 주장. 2분기 GDP가 마이너스로 예상되어 기술적 침체 가능성이 있다고 언급. 단기 반등 가능성: 현재 비관론이 극단적이라 우크라이나 전쟁 해결 등 긍정적 뉴스가 나오면 주식·원자재가 포함한 큰 랠리가 나올 수 있다고 봄. 다만 이 랠리가 마지막 큰 상승일 가능성이 높아 매도 기회로 본다고 밝힘. 인플레이션 진단: 과도한 재정·통화 부양이 인플레이션을 야기했다고 2021년부터 경고했던 입장 유지. 2022년 물가 상승률 9.1%(40년 최고)를 언급. 1980년 국채 금리 20% 사례를 들며, 이번에도 금리를 매우 높게 올려야 하고 그 과정에서 심각한 침체와 파산이 불가피하다고 주장. 정책 비판: 연준·정부가 해법을 모르며, 금리 인상만이 해법이라는 입장. 감세 등 공급 측 정책에는 원칙적으로 찬성하나 통화 발행이 계속되면 인플레가 악화된다고 비판. 바이든 정부의 추가 부양(Build Back Better 축소판)은 인플레에 기름을 붓는다고 평가. 투자 조언: 자신이 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하고 TV 핫팁은 듣지 말 것. 인플레 환경에서는 농산물·에너지 등 가격이 오르는 자산이 유리하며, 공매도 역량이 있다면 전 세계 여러 주식을 공매도할 수 있다고 함. 그럴 능력이 없다면 현금(은행 예금)으로 대기하는 편이 낫다고 권고. 금리가 결국 인플레를 상쇄할 정도로 오를 것이라 현금 보유도 가능하다고 봄. 출연자 전망 요약: 약세장 지속, 단기 반등 후 더 큰 하락, 인플레 해결을 위한 고금리·심각한 침체 불가피.
다듬은 글
jim rogers presents his analysis of the latest movements in stocks gold and commodities he argues that when it comes to the ukraine conflict we should expect to see a positive development within a few weeks and that could cause a rally in stocks at the freedom fest 2022 conference in las vegas she spoke with kiko news editor-in-chief and lead host michelle mccoury the u.s debt and market and are we heading a serious recession michelle i make a lot of mistakes so i'm glad i heard something right but i know i've made many mistakes well it's good to see you but you are the bearer of bad news saying that the situation for u.s equities is about to get a lot worse how much worse well what i have said is we're going to have more bear markets we've always had bear markets now in washington they say no we're not everything is okay now no more bear market if you believe them don't listen to me but i know more bear markets are coming and what i have said is the next one is going to be the worst in my lifetime maybe we're in the minute now i i don't know you should watch kitko news to find out 2008 we had a problem with too much debt michelle since 2008 the debt oh my god look out the wonder the debt is skyrocket everywhere so the next bear market has to be horrible well assuming we're in one right now and we know that the s p 500 is already down 20 so sure looks like we are the ones that you have referred to as being the worst in your lifetime the s p fell by at least 50 percent so by that calculation we still have at least another 30 to go down here but before this bear market is over of course many stocks are going to go down 70 80 90 that's the way bear markets work no of course that's going to happen i just don't know when it is watch kit go news they will tell you well that's why we have you on kid conference so it's going to be worse because we have even more debt in the system first of all it's been 13 years since we've had big problems and that's the longest in american history could go for 30 years who knows who knows but it's already overdue on a historic basis and it's very very expensive and it always goes down a lot when it goes down we have very high valuations we have staggering debt we have a lot of new investors coming in michelle it's not my first rodeo i've seen this movie i know how it works they're all going to lose a lot of money i hope i'm not one of them well jim i'm not sure washington disputes that we're in a bear market hard to dispute that when the s p 500 is down 20 so by technical definition we're in a bear market but i do get your point that many in washington aren't acknowledging that we're in a recession although we may very well already be in one second quarter gdp estimates expected to be negative so then again by the technical definition two quarters of negative growth we are in a recession but to your point many in washington haven't quite come to terms with that or admitted that but what is your outlook at large especially as the fed tightens more aggressively i wish i could quote you all of the times washington and said we're not in a recession when we were they didn't even know it that the recession didn't start them and likewise central bank people my outlook is that if we have peace if something there's a lot of pessimism around right now huge amounts of pessimism whenever there's a lot of pessimism it often leads to a rally if something happens in ukraine there'll be a big rally oil will go down grains will go down stocks and everything will go up for a while i don't know what will cause the rally but we're probably going to have a big rally that rally is i hope i was smart enough to sell that rally because that's probably the last big route it could be very big rally but that's probably the last time and that would or could be triggered by a resolution to the conflict in the war in ukraine is what you could see as the possible trigger for a rally and the obvious for me would be if something happens in ukraine i have no idea i don't have any inside information but if something happens that would cause a big route but you're saying we're currently in a bear market but not necessarily the one that you anticipate will be the worst in your lifetime when it's worse in my lifetime you'll know it it's not now it's we're not in the middle of it now this is not the worst bear mark in my life this is nothing this is nothing oh my gosh you should have i have seen some astonishing bear markers not just in the u.s all over the world but you don't think that we're in the beginning of the worst bear market of your lifetime to define it that way yes but if there were peace we might make new highs but still that would not negate the bear market all right so we're in a bear market we could still see a rally on positive diplomatic developments out of russia ukraine but ultimately we're still owed another huge bear market worse than anything we've seen before even if it's not this one if i may recap how can it not be a horrible bear market you know what the debt has happened i mean the u.s has increased this debt by several times since 2009.
japan oh my god they can't even count the debt in japan many countries in the world the debt just goes higher and higher and higher 2008 was because of too much debt it's much worse now well it's uh apologies for the wobbly table here jim it's much like the economy it's wobbly like the economy so you were correct that you said that this unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus was going to cause inflation you said that uh in march of 2021 when you were on the show now we've hit 9.1 percent a new high over the last 40 years what is it going to take to tame this inflation to fix it for no they're not they don't know how to fix it the only thing michelle in 2000 sorry in 1980 interest rates on treasury bills u.s treasury bills were over 20 that's not a typo 20 it cured inflation it solved the problem finally no because we've made so many mistakes this time around interest rates will have to go very very high we will have a serious recession many people will go bankrupt we're going to have a lot of problems there's no other way to solve the problem other than to have double-digit vulcaresque type of interest rate hikes well we could have we have a choice we can raise interest rates a lot and have a lot of pain or we let people continue to print money and have horrible horrible inflation and cause even more pain there's not much not many choices well we've had uh the likes of art laffer and stephen moore on the show and they're saying that if you take a supply-side economic approach and you cut taxes for example that we could get out of the situation without a recession or certainly not one as ugly as would need to be to tame interest rates by just increasing to tame inflation by just increasing interest rates i am all for cutting taxes it's always better for any country any economy the fewer taxes the better fine if if order if steve thinks they can pull that off by all means but if we cut taxes we're going to have big push into the economy but while these guys are printing money it's just going to make inflation worse we i don't know how we solve the problem of too much inflation without pain right well and there is a call for even more stimulus by the biden administration democrats wanting to get through a watered-down version of the buildback better plan so that certainly is gonna perhaps uh or definitely pour more gasoline onto the fire there so jim what can an investor do in this environment well first of all investors should only invest in what they themselves know a lot about they shouldn't listen to hot tips on tv even on kitco news that's a terrible way to invest stay with what you know i can tell you some of the things i'm doing when you have inflation if you own the things that go up in price you make money i mean agricultural goods are going to go higher before this is over energy will go higher before it's over everything will go higher before it's over real good if you own those kinds of things you will do well if you know how to sell short then you can sell short many things many stocks not just in america all over the world and make a lot of money if you don't know how to do either of those put your money in the bank and wait it's better to earn one percent per year than to lose 20 per year and bear markets lead to big losses can you stay in cash in such an inflationary environment sure the interest rates will go high enough one thing about interest rates in inflation they will eventually go high enough to offset the effects of inflation
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