저자: 짐로저스 · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 이 영상에서 IMF를 폐지해야 한다고 비판하며, IMF의 예측이 번번이 틀렸고 관료 특권이 과도하다고 주장한다. 비트코인은 가격이 더 떨어져도 매수 의향이 없고, 정부가 통화 독점을 포기하지 않는 한 실질 화폐가 되기 어렵다고 본다. 농산물은 인플레이션 헤지로 여전히 유효하다고 보지만, 우크라이나 평화 시 곡물과 유가가 급락할 수 있어 그때가 매수 기회라고 한다. IMF 및 세계은행 비판과 관료 구조 문제가 핵심 주제다. IMF는 인플레이션이 내년쯤 잡히고 금리 인상이 2023년까지 이어질 것이라 전망했지만, 로저스는 IMF가 무엇에 대해서도 옳았던 적이 없다고 본다. 동남아 성장을 낙관하다 다음 해 위기가 온 사례를 들며 IMF 보고서를 다시 읽어보라고 조언한다. 비트코인에 대해서는 매수 의향이 없다는 입장이다. 과거 1달러나 5달러에 샀어야 했다는 발언은 후회의 표현일 뿐이라고 설명한다. 현재 고점 대비 70% 하락한 상태에서도 어떤 가격에서도 매수하지 않겠다고 밝힌다. 정부가 법정통화로 채택하는 등 극적 변화가 없는 한 입장은 바뀌지 않는다고 한다. 농산물 및 우크라이나 전쟁 관련 전망이 이어진다. 농산물 지수는 인플레이션 헤지로 여전히 좋은 선택이라고 보며, 최근 조정은 정상적 현상으로 본다. 우크라이나 평화 합의가 몇 주 내 나올 가능성이 높다고 예상한다. 평화 소식이 나오면 곡물과 유가가 크게 떨어지고, 그 결과 주식 안도랠리가 나올 수 있다고 본다. 통화 질서 변화에 대한 전망도 제시된다. 이번 전쟁으로 러시아와 중국의 관계가 강화되었고, 달러 독점 체제가 가속적으로 흔들리고 있다고 판단한다. 미국이 제재를 통해 달러 사용을 막고 자산을 압류하는 행태가 다른 국가들의 대안 모색을 부추긴다고 본다. 미국이 세계 최대 채무국이라는 점과 역사적으로 기축통화가 약 100년마다 바뀌었다는 점을 근거로 든다.
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james beal and rogers jr is an american investor and financial commentator based in singapore rogers is president of beeland interests inc he is the co-founder of quantum fund and soros fund management he was also the creator of the rogers international commodities index the global market ukraine war and are we witnessing the beginning of demolarization well in in terms of the outlook of the imf the international monetary fund they think that inflation globally will likely be tamed by next year when rate hikes start to work the imf saying that global interest rates will keep rising until 2023 and then heated prices will begin to cool in response to actions from central banks what do you agree i've been investing a long time i have never known the imf to be fighting about anything i don't even bother i mean the best thing we could all do is abolish the imf we're not because there are too many people who make money off the imf they've never been right about anything abolish the imf huh yeah we'd be better off that would be a way towards solving some of our problems we abolished their imf the world bank we'd be on the way why do you think that that would necessarily help solve some of the global economic problems we spend on the world bank and the imf every year huge amounts of money all those guys that are bureaucratic work they love working for the imf they get tax-free pensions they get high high salaries they get all sorts of perks they think it is heaven you know who's paying for it yeah us well taxpayers in the us global taxpayers just to play devil's advocate here don't we need uh global bodies to coordinate things on the world stage it would be wonderful if you can get a good one do it i am if ain't it you should go back and read some of the imf's annual reports some of the things they have said and you would be stunned stunned at how many times they said southeast asia is great and then the next year there's a gigantic crisis in southeast asia i could go on and on well i know the imf has taken a very aggressive position against bitcoin certainly no fans of bitcoin and you have in the past said that you would have bought bitcoin at a dollar or five dollars that's that's a quote from an interview you had um with the economic times of india bitcoin not quite that low but is on sale 70 percent down from its all-time high would you buy bitcoin now no no no what i said was i wish i had bought bitcoin at a dollar for five dollars michelle i wish i'd bought ibm in 1914.
i wish i'd done a lot of things i wish i'd bought amazon at a dollar no all i said was i wish well you you can't have it at a dollar or five dollars now hopefully not hopefully it doesn't drop to that level but is there a level that you would buy bitcoin at there's no level at which i would buy those cryptocurrencies uh unless something dramatic changes no the answer is no what would be something dramatic well i guess if suddenly the eu used bitcoin as its national global currency then you would have to then it's no longer cryptocurrency it's a computer currency backed by governments bitcoin is wonderful for people who buy it and sell it and trade it i know people who are having fun trading it nothing wrong with that but if it ever becomes successful as currency which they say it will no government's going to allow that nobody no government wants to lose its control they all love their monopoly they're not going to give up their monopoly i wish they would but they aren't all right not a fan of bitcoin but you've always been a fan of agriculture and last time you were in the show you said that a good inflation hedge was uh the rogers uh agricultural index it did perform well it didn't drop over the last month or so still up about two percent year to date why are we seeing a sell-off in agriculture now sure nothing goes straight up or straight down things go up like this there are always corrections along the way and maybe there's something else going on but in my experience corrections are normal and common they happen all the time so is investing in agriculture still a wise move if you're trying to hedge in against this current inflation my answer is yes but my plan is if there's peace in ukraine agriculture is going to go down all grain prices are going to go down for a while and that's the time to buy what is the likelihood of peace in in ukraine over the next year or so if you were to prognosticate how this plays out i would say the chances are very good it's a foolish war all wars are foolish but i mean mr biden's not getting mr food is not getting anything out of it the cranes aren't getting anything out of i don't see that it's doing anybody any good uh mr biden i miss putin may get what he wants or at least part of what he wants and then things would calm down but listen i don't have any inside information on a man a seasoned man of the world with insights across the globe so always like to get your thoughts on things i would suspect that there will be some positive development in ukraine in the next few weeks yeah if not before wow in the next few weeks and that would trigger a relief rally that would trigger a drop big drop in grains a big drop in oil which would cause a big relief rally in stocks because everybody would say inflation's okay now no more problems hooray buy stocks buy bonds what do you think a diplomatic solution to this war could look like would that involve territorial concessions to russia would it involve ukraine declaring that it won't join nato what do you think that would look like those questions are they complicated because ukraine you know is not a real country it's something that the soviet you all of those guys were part of the soviet union before and stalin or somebody said okay these are the ukraine and this is russia et cetera parts of what is now ukraine were really parts of russia before and then somebody when they were drunk or lost or confused said okay you're in ukraine now and this is russia so if you talk about territorial concessions if the previous russian parts of ukraine went back to russia is that a territorial concession that's what the ukraines would say but is it in the big scheme of history probably not and that's obviously a matter of perspective and a valid one at that would you say though that that is how this conflict gets resolved if you were to speculate well we certainly have to do something as i said it's a foolish war it's costing a lot of people a lot of money and lives of course so somebody's got to figure out whatever we have to do let's solve this problem and that may be a solution i have no idea what it'll take you know maybe if we all dropped billions of dollars into ukraine that would solve the problem something needs to be done in the meantime we do have this war creating a stronger relationship between russia and china and it has led to a discussion of the potential bifurcation of the global monetary system with perhaps some kind of commodity-backed central bank digital currency that is used by china russia some of the bric countries you have prognosticated about the ultimate collapse of the dollar as a sole global reserve currency has this war accelerated that yes unfortunate war has accelerated you know the world's international medium of exchange is supposed to be neutral you can do any anybody can do anything with it they want to but unfortunately washington is changing those rules washington says well if we don't like you you cannot use the us dollar and people say wait a minute an international medium exchange is supposed to be neutral that's not the way it's supposed to work so for many reasons many countries are now looking even our allies are now looking for something to compete because it could happen to them you know all of a sudden washington could say you're finished so for political reasons it's accelerating to move to looking for a competitor to the dollar and of course the economic reason we're the largest debtor nation in world history i'm not the only person who knows that the whole world knows that historically big currency major top currencies change every 100 years or so so for political and economic reasons it's already in process and this may make it worse because washington has said we'll take your money away from you if we don't like you many people have had their assets seized by the u.s because they don't like them now
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