저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
Raamdeo Agrawal이 Eicher Motors 투자 과정을 회고. 2,000~2,800루피대에 매수, 당시 시가총액 대비 현금이 많아 저평가로 판단. 트럭 세대교체 스토리는 실현되지 않았으나 Royal Enfield 바이크 수요 급증으로 회사가 크게 성장, 현재도 보유 중이며 매도 없음. 장기적으로 '누가 큰돈을 벌지' 예측이 투자의 핵심이라는 교훈 제시.
다듬은 글
now I'm requesting you let's talk about one real life example we need not talk about the current example but some story that you heard and not an Asian paints or not a hero motop if I can press you for something else some story that you heard which you thought okay let's start with aisher the story that you heard which got you interested in it see this is very easy because we have I have gone through that and I'm but uh disclaimer that stock is still in my portfolios okay which is fine but it's not a recommendation by any means we just talking about how you started off buying Aisha so uh I was having morning walk and uh one of my friend he's a automotive dealer so he he tells me ramdev uh this aisher my thi has the dealership and he's saying that interesting thing is going to happen in Aisha but Aisha I was already marking it because there was a change of parent H there was a change uh the Volvo had already come in but I was knowing I was thinking it is a useless company but now terrific guys have come sish have come and something is going to happen and that was my uh you know my memory and then on top of it this guy comes and says that there's something interesting happening now there is a meeting of two minds I said immediately we'll go next day we we sitting with that guy in opera house and uh we had wonderful discussion 2 hours he offered us Masala milk and rulah and all we sat for 2 hours and he was brilliant in in his uh uh telling the stories and the story was about the trucks that what is going to happen is that dominance of Ashan and Telco would be challenged by New Generation trucks once the bs4 and bs6 comes uh and that is going to come from because technology leadership is with Volvo and Benz so these two companies are going to take the leadership from these two that was the story years back sure so we said very good we'll uh so that time market price was about 7800 800 rupees and uh on a 30 CR Equity it was like 2,000 2,500 CR kind of market cap so I came to my office and uh I was very impressed I told the guys I said let and uh if you when I went to the balance sheet balance sheet had a huge amount of cash I mean half the market cap was in cash so I said I me you can't get deeper value than this so I said let's do research they said sir there is no trading there is no volume why should we do research they refused to do research on this I said send I me set some uh you know kind of uh analyst plan visit or something so finally I got a invite from the company for a plant visit after a year after a year after a year okay by that time the stock price already triple okay did you manage to buy it before the plan visit because my research is not complete so there's no question of buying so the 800 7800 stock went to about 1,800 and 18800 we went to pampur and we had a fantastic Global analyst meet it was actually Volvo Global meet out there okay so all kinds of FKS had come and wonderful presentation and all about the trucks and everything the range they are bringing and all we did we saw everything we said now we're going to buy we started buying we started buying it about the very first day I went to buy it was 2,000 plus so at 2,000 we started buying we bought till about 2,800 wow okay okay we kept on buying then research cover was hardly one or two guys very thin coverage was there there was not much coverage then all foreigners and all everybody started recing the moment it hit the billion dollar at 3,000 it hit the I think at $2,500 it hit the billion dollar then the coverage started coming what happened later on was the truck story never worked what happened was there was this Bike Company Royal infi so that was there on the back of our mind that so our my call was that if the worst in next five years going to be doubler and it is going to be doubler because of Royal infield but if if it works it will be a Lack company it was you had thought about it then that that time itself okay when be buying it 5 6,000 CR we had thought that it is going to be a 60,000 to a lak company basically if it works out if it doesn't work out it'll be a doubler so downside is doubler which is 15% very good for us okay okay that's how we started buying okay and later on what happened was the the moment we bought I think somebody told them that start I mean suddenly the bike demand just shot up shot through the roof and today they the most iconic company and they're close to I think 80 90,000 market cap and uh so and we have not sold single share wow so so you know the issue is that this is how uh but this is a kind of Lucky Strike of course actually what we bought for has yet not happened maybe uh the part two might be that so yeah so they're doing better now in the this thing ta also okay so you know this is how investing happens at times uh because you are investing into the future the current price is all what is the current price current price is summation of all the earnings in the future discounted for whatever okay so one has to figure out who is going to make a lot of money okay and you can make only that much money as much as the company makes yes so fundamentally we don't look at the price we look at the value at Le my job I have after a lot of thinking after 25 30 years and 20 wealth Christian Studies I have realized the only game in town is to figure out who is going to make a lot of money the moment you're able to figure out this guy is going to make lot of money just I mean you should be lucky to know first before others know yes and buy it okay you know that's that's a that's a really interesting learning
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