저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 투자 관점에서 고품질 성장주를 선별해 오래 보유하는 것이 중요하며, 기업의 장기 이익 성장 잠재력과 자신의 정보 우위(edge)를 찾아야 한다고 강조. 포트폴리오는 주기적으로 모니터링하되 잦은 매매는 지양. 3년 내 두 배 가능성을 기준으로 종목을 고르고, 복리의 힘을 강조. 특정 종목/자산에 대한 단기 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
What to buy now what happens in this is that you are buying for the long term so if you buy a rickety car for the long term then it will surely cheat you so for the long term I will only buy quality thing that means high quality franchising which is going to have a life of 10, 15, 20 years like if you are buying a bank then what about a bank, in the whole world 100 years, 200 years is very less time for the life of banks so what are these banks typically like as an animal, as an entity it lasts for a very long time so conceptually it is a consumer company like your Nestle, Nestle is a 300 year old company, here in India also it has been 50, 50, 60 years so it means your next generation is also using national product today we are using national product in future also like Britannia so all the consumer products have a lot of longevity so you mean end to end quality of the franchisees is very good so you The company that you buy should have quality, it should be a very good business.
What is the long term economic value of these companies? We need to see how their economics are. I mean, right now it is earning Rs. 100, but after 10 years it can earn Rs. 10000, is that good? Yes, it is very important to understand that if the company earns 10 times, you will earn the same amount of money.
I mean, that much profit, it should have the potential to grow. So, if it is earning Rs. 100 now and after 10 years it earns Rs. 100, then how do you mean it will become 10 times? That's right, that means it can become 8 times or 10 times because of that. But it is very important to understand that can this company earn for that long?
Will it remain so long? First of all, to earn in 10 years, the company should remain profitable for 10 years. That's right, so you should look at that type of business. So, buying a high quality growth company and what ever you think is right, but I would Suggest that see here comes the style that brother, my style is good quality and growth, I do it, someone else's style would be that of a very big company, that is, a large, unpopular company, that is, a very fat company, but they are available in very less quantity because the times are going very bad, or like right now in real estate or road or some such infrastructure, very big companies are available very cheaply, but you understand that its work will increase a lot, so you can buy it anyway, but that is not my style, or many people buy small growth companies, that is the only thing that will remain, they buy a very small company and then that small company becomes very big, brother, if you buy 200, 400, 500 companies, then a company of 20, 25,000 becomes a company, when the fund came, a company of 2 lakh crores was listed in 93, that is right, and a company of 50 crores becomes worth 2 lakh crores, so every company has its own story, so what is your style, but your style, you decide what to do By the way, you won't get such ideas every day.
You wo n't get seven or five ideas in a week. You won't get them in months, years. Sometimes, if God blesses you, you get them. Understand that, and they do come. But keep this in mind. Keep confident. You will meet someone along the way. Someone will definitely give you that idea. You will meet a friend, someone from a channel.
It will be written somewhere in a magazine that you will get something. You will get it. Keep an eye on these. There is a prosperous economy. There are many experts here who are determined to become very rich. Who is there to catch you? Stock management is a very complex process because what happens in it is that you get only one thing, that is, price.
Is it just the price? What is its story hidden in it? How much expectation has the market built up and how much do you know about it? Do you know more than the market? If you know more about its story than the market? If you know more for some reason, then you are victorious. And if the market has already put the entire price in it, that whatever is going to happen is the reason for this, and that actually turns out to be true, then you will also remain at the same place.
You do n't have extra money. So, you will understand where your edge is. For example, if you have a pharmacy business in your house, by chance you will know about all the pharmacy companies, whose medicine is working, whose medicine is not working, whose medicine will become very big, will become a brand worth thousands of crores.
So, when you order, it arrives immediately. Who is fast in payment, takes delivery, see, new companies keep coming, so you know where a good new company is being formed. So, when you do pharma, then you have an edge because you get to know what is being sold in your shop. So, this extra edge which the market does not know.
In the market, people like us are roaming around, there they do a little bit according to what the analysts say and also meet the company people, but you know the counter. What is being sold and what is its prospect, the day you see that this company is going to be a very long race horse, then very few such ideas are going to come and when that type of idea comes in your hand, then you have to buy a big, big buy, like if you buy 10 at C2, it will multiply five times, then it will be 10, that is a different thing, but if you bought 10 in the beginning itself, then if you have one idea in two, three years, then it should become a habit for you that brother I will wait for the right or right opportunity and when it comes, I will not leave it, I will not leave it, all this is a wish, let me tell you, we have not been able to do it in the past, I mean, all this pain of ours kept on bothering us, whatever we could not do in the past, I am telling you this is process improvement, it is okay, so this is a formula that where confidence comes, comfort comes, one feels that reasonably confident, this will happen, yes, it has been there, okay, what is the problem with you in this that You are not buying one or two stocks, you are buying 10-15 stocks, if you are buying only 15 stocks then on average the position will be at 6-7.
First of all, you should not think in terms of number of shares, you should always think in terms of percentage. You should understand that you always have ₹1, I have to invest ₹ or ₹, according to that, suppose you have a portfolio of 100 crores to invest, then you can directly buy ₹, it is okay, otherwise generally what happens is when a new idea comes, you buy it for 25 lakhs, hey, what will happen to 2 lakhs or 25 lakhs in 100 crores portfolio, let's say it is five times, there will be no difference, it is okay, so these are vested ideas, vested opportunities, so location is very important in it because it is a twin engine plane, good idea, good location, when both go together, then your journey will be shortened, it is absolutely right to forget, in the same portfolio you There's no need to do anything every day, but you should monitor your entire portfolio, whatever it is, for 15-17 years.
Your statement should come once every month, saying, "How did you do? What happened in which company, how much, how is it going?" And what's happening in your company? I mean, you get the company's statement sheet, but the fact is, what happened? But you have to continuously monitor what's happening inside the company, how are their earnings?
Firstly, you've filtered so well and bought the best companies, you've bought all the best horses, but still, you have to keep checking whether it's a horse or a donkey. And if someone gets sick, or if someone goes bad, you have to isolate that and buy another company. So, you have to continue monitoring it.
Look, the money you give us, or the professionals I've hired, is by the minute, by the day, by the month, by the week. How many sites are there? And I think there's over-monitoring and less work. There is a lot of monitoring going on, but the private managers who manage private money, which we have a lot of, a lot of your viewers, they manage their own money, they are old too, their monitoring is weekly, it is okay, they themselves do not see how their earnings are happening like you do, you should also compare yourself, you should make your complete sheet that from April 1st to March 31st, for example, you had 100 crores, so 100 crores became 110 in the market, you also made 10, you also made 110 or you made 120, this is for you, on a one-year basis or two years, people have a little bit of a misunderstanding, active monitoring means that you do not have to churning out money every day, but you should always keep an eye on your investments at the right time, see how the target is that brother, you have to multiply 10 times in 10 years, but 10 years is a very long time, can I double in 3 years, double in 3 years, triple in 5 years And 10 times in 10 years is the same thing, that's all about 25, so I mean, and 25 in a year, there is no investing in a year, I mean, not every year, 10 years, so it keeps looking like this, 3 years should be the minimum, so is this some formula, you should pick such a company in which you think it can double in 3 years, see, as you come in the market, you will understand all kinds of things, someone will say earn money in this, do less investment, many such things will come, but you should not shoot till then, like if you go hunting in the jungle, you want to hunt an elephant, if you want to hunt an elephant, then what if you keep shooting at sheep, goat and dog, then you will not see the elephant, sometimes it is interesting, so you should shoot only when you see an elephant, focus, focus, one, you should know that brother, I have come for the elephant, it is very important that you understand this, brother, what is my useless work, if you want to invest in 10 years and find a stock which increases four times or three times Instead of that, I am not looking for a return of 3 times a day.
Yes, no, brother, I want to double it in a year and triple it in a year. I am telling you the way we think, double it in a year, double it in 10 years, 10 times in 10 years. Okay, if we write a story like this, but it will be 10 years, in three years, then our objective is completely set. First of all, does this company, this share have the capability to double in 3 years?
Well, it does not double in a year, yes, or it becomes 10 times or 5 times in 3 years, or it does not work at all, it turns out to be a fool, that is okay. Yes, if it happens like this, then it will be big, brother. We buy every company on the basis that it will double in three years. For example, we bought Bharti at 25, but we thought it would become 50-60.
People convinced us, yes, they even made us sell it at 30, but when we bought it, the price reached 1200 within 2 years, so it became 50 times, so you should not do this. You can imagine how much it will increase because earnings can also increase, P multiple can also increase, but you do not know whether P-rating will not happen or rating will happen, but according to your calibration and your understanding, even after leaving aside all this with margin of safety, it should double in a year.
So what if this Rs 100 crore was that we have 20 years behind us, now the time has come to think even longer than that. What is the problem that happens with the progress of a country, so when we started in 1985, the country was very poor, the income of people above 95 per cent was below power line, at one point per person per day per person was below 70 per cent, from there it has now reached 70 per cent, so this is the journey of the country, it is coming out of poverty modestly, that is, continuously, so there was an environment in which you meant that like you made money, we made it from zero to 1000, but now there is an opportunity, that from here, in the next 20 years, it will be even bigger than this in the next 20-30 years.
There is a bigger opportunity than this, but there is no use in just entering numbers. It is very important to start this journey and the thinking should be very long. What is this? It will definitely take time to earn a lot of money from very little money. If you see, if you start with 100 crores, it may take you 10-12 years to earn 100 crores.
But no one has 100 crores. The one who has 100 crores is not watching the show. Those 85 of us who did not have money, there was a glow in their hearts, there was enthusiasm. We could have made money. We did not know about firms, I mean, how it is made. We used to study and that was the only way to make money.
After that, we bought a few shares in 1980. Many times, we bought 300-500 shares for ₹1, for ₹1, so we have seen those shares double and triple. We had some difficulty too, but even at that time, money was made, that is, we saw that money was being made. Now, how to make big money, so slowly, slowly, we I started studying wealth creation and because of that my mind started becoming very organized, right?
In the beginning the mind is not that organized, there is not that much understanding, it gets confused everywhere, which book should I read, which magazine should I read, whom should I listen to, whom should I not listen to, what should my philosophy be, what should his philosophy be, here thousands of people make things in a thousand ways, whatever one person says, he cuts the other person down, so this means that those who are young get a lot of confusion because look, no one above has given you any such impression that if you enter the market then you will definitely become 100-50 crores, it is not necessary at all, what is your determination, how long is your goal and how much patience do you have, that is the most important point, right?
So keep thinking long term, do n't talk about 2000, keep 10000, keep lakh crores, what is the lack of such a thing, we think big, that is most important, so but then there should be a target, well what is the other one, you should do this You have to understand how much time I have. I am starting at the age of 25, so first of all see whether I have 30-40 years of time or not, I mean now I am in the journey of making money.
I am 25, 27, 22 years old. Today's kids are very bright, everyone starts earning money in 22-2 years, so a 20 year old, 22 year old boy has Rs. 1 lakh, 2 lakh, 5 lakh, he has a full 40 years clear, that means what is the formula of every 25, every 10 years your money gets 10 times, okay yes, so look at the power of compounding, if I tell you now, it becomes 10 times in 10 years and 20 times in 20 years, is it the same thing or it becomes 30 times in 30 years, it is not the same, there is a lot of difference, you know 10 times in 10 years is equal to 100 times in 20 years Oh, because money must become money.
If you multiply it 10 times in the first 10 years, then in the next 10 years that 10 will become 100. And that same 100 will become 100 times in 30 years and in 40 years it will become 10,000
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