저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 가치평가 없이 성장주를 사면 손실 가능, 가격과 가치의 괴리(안전마진)를 보고 ROE·성장률·요구수익률의 삼각형으로 적정가치를 판단해야 한다. [배경 사례] 2000~2018년 인포시스(연 25% 성장)는 PER 206에서 출발해 수익률이 낮았고, 마로(Maro)는 PER 16 수준에서 출발해 약 30% 수익률을 냈다. 가격 수준이 성장보다 중요하다는 사례이다. [가치평가의 중요성] 가격은 누구나 알지만 내재가치를 알아야 투자 우위가 생긴다. 가치 평가 역량이 있는 사람도 가치를 실제로 계산하지 않는 경우가 많다. 진지한 투자는 가격과 가치 차이에서 안전마진이 있을 때만 매수하는 것이다. [가치평가 방법의 역사] 1934년 증권분석, 1938년 가치이론 등장 이후 배당수익률 vs 채권수익률(1950년대), 이익 성장 중시, 버핏 등의 현금흐름과 이익의 질 중시 단계로 발전했다. 현재는 ROCE 등 새로운 지표도 거론된다. [핵심 프레임] 내재가치는 생애 잉여현금흐름의 현재가치이며, 핵심 변수는 ROE, 이익성장률, 자기자본비용(요구수익률)이다. 자기자본비용은 약 13%로 제시되며 인도 SENSEX 30년 수익률(약 13.5%)을 근거로 든다. 성장에 필요한 자본지출(growth capex)이 커지면 잉여현금흐름이 줄어든다. [성장과 ROE의 관계] ROE가 자기자본비용보다 낮으면 성장은 가치를 파괴한다. ROE가 자기자본비용보다 높을 때만 성장이 가치를 만든다. ROE 40%를 넘으면 추가 상승 효과는 제한적이다. 고ROE 기업은 성장을, 저ROE 기업은 ROE 개선에 집중해야 한다. [지속성] 1998년 ROE 13% 이상 기업 136개 중 2018년까지 살아남은 기업은 22개뿐이었다. 5년 이상 25% 이상 이익 성장을 지속한 기업은 극소수(HDFC Bank 등)이며, 고성장은 보통 5~6년 안에 끝난다. 성장 초기가 아니라 성장 말기에 비싸게 사면 큰 손실이 날 수 있다. [밸류에이션 지표 백테스트] 1998~2015년 3년 단위 분석에서 PER 10배 이하 매수 시 약 5% 알파, 시장 PER 이상(대략 50~70배 이상) 매수는 수익이 나지 않았다. PEG 1 미만 매수 시 알파가 크며 1.5 이상은 실패했다. PBR 1 미만과 PSR 1 미만도 유효했다. [시장 전망] 현재 시장 밸류에이션은 강력한 이익 성장을 요구하는데, 그것이 불확실하므로 시장은 약세를 보일 것으로 본다. 투자 시 예상 성장률과 ROE 조건을 명확히 따져야 한다. [결론] 기업 가치는 ROE > 자기자본비용일 때 성장이 가치를 만들며, PEG 1 미만이 건전한 초과수익의 거의 확실한 공식에 가깝다. 현재 시장은 높은 밸류에이션에 비해 실적 불확실성이 크다.
다듬은 글
I have a small quiz uh between 2000 to 2018 in last 18 years infosis and Maro two companies uh profit growth has been 25% for 18 years in infosis 25% compounded for 18 years is like a almost impossible kind of event but it has happened and Maro about 18% now what could be the return in both the companies starting from 2000 so 2000 to 2018 I'm giving a primer in terms of earnings growth what could be the return anybody has 30 30 for 18 for infosis Amo but so see the numbers it's 8% for fores and 30% for Maro it's all game of valuation and you know why it has happened the P differential in in 2008 it is not 2008 I'm sorry this is 2000 it's a it's a mistake is 2000 in 2000 the P was 206 that was a peak of boom and uh 16 is the p in 18 March from 206 to correct in 18 years it literally the overvaluation of the stocks I mean this actually makes you think because if you had a perfect foresight in 2000 that for next 18 years infosis is going to grow at 25% and yet you would have not made any money and forget about beating the market you would have been lucky to just save yourself at a fixed income rate if you're right for 18 years and look at Maro which was a kind of an good company known company small company uh it was very respected company even then at 10p when you bought and the reating of 54p 5x that is the game of valuation the guys who understood the valuation in 2000 they they kind of uh walked out of the stock and the guys who understood again the valuation of Maro they bought into it and I think we have a gentleman called sanay bachara he suffered as well as benefited in both the stocks that's why I picked up this two companies so uh just to set the background backdrop in the Bible it says I mean this is the best code on valuation ever heard in the Bible it says that love covers a multitude of sins well in investing field price covers a multitude of mistakes for human beings there is no substitute for love for for investing there is no substitute for paying the right price absolutely none so this is wenberg 95 year old uh Century Investment Management in H Houston I think he works out of Houston very old guy second uh second world war veteran so this guy you know is amazing in terms of his insights about investing but this price thing is so important you just saw the so it is very important to understand the uh I just wanted to give the uh the backdrop in which we have done the study and we'll get get back to this a little later so what is the importance of understanding value so identify value price Gap see in Market there is everybody knows the price all the time but very few know or they have the uh the inclination to know the value underlying value because price doesn't give any Edge how do you figure out what is the value so a lot of people have no no uh competence to figure out value and and a lot of people I mean at least the people who work in this Tower they have competence to Value but do they really bother about valuing companies because that's the biggest crisis the people who are competent they also don't bother about value they only bother about what has happened to the price so the way investing serious investing works is that price is always there figure out the value and buy only if there is a margin of safety there is a huge gap between price and value so we have done as I said we have done of the qgp we have taken care of Q we have taken care of growth we have taken care of Los longivity in last 23 studies and this is the time when we are looking at Price reasonable valuation related to Quality and growth Prospect with a high margin of safety so how the evolution of valuation itself has happened so in 30s and 40s when the when actually the first time anybody bothered to write about uh I mean there must have been some books but actually security analysis came in 1934 and in 1938 B William wrote the book uh theory of investment value at that point of time there was a formal some kind of writing in much more organized fashion about the valuation in the markets and at that point of time incidentally there was a recessionary time depression time I think probably one of the worst depression so that time people wanted to buy the stock they actually nobody wanted to buy stocks so the people wanted to buy stocks only post 1929 boom they wanted to buy at discount to the book value clearly if the book value is 100 I don't want to bid more than the whole Market was at discount then in 50s when the economy started coming this is in America when the economy started coming out of the recession they started saying okay we believe that compan is going to work but I don't want to buy equities unless the dividend yield is higher than bond yield dividend yield to be higher than bond yield in us so divid if the bond yield is 8% I want dividend yield to be 9% 10% then only I'll buy that went on for another 15 20 years then they realized that the companies are not Distributing all the earnings which they have so then they said let's look at the earnings growth because they're redeploying the profits so then there was a boom in the the valuation was based on the earnings growth IR respect to the Quality respect of cash flow and then Buffett and Manar came then said don't look at only uh profits let's look at the quality of cash flow quality of profit and there the quality investing is started Seas candy Coca-Cola American Express all sorts of thing uh they started buying and they started also writing about investing in Quality Companies and that kind of era lasted or even it is lasting now and uh investing in Quality Companies and thousands of book has come and then more recently this is a Robert hrm's uh summary he's saying that new emerging what you call Valu tool is Croy cash return on invested Capital we have not used this particular technique right now our own understanding is limited but I think we'll as we go along we are going to explore even this possibility so price is what we pay value is what we get so we can control what price we are paying only if we understand what is the underlying value so present Val see I think there is no there is no confusion that the correct value I mean the theoretical value or approximate intrinsic value whatever you might say the best definition and the only definition is present value of Lifetime cash flows the only problem in this definition is how do you figure out the lifetime cash flow and so uh we have tried uh everybody tries his own bit of trying to get approximately everybody goes wrong longer you go more wrong you are but I mean I would like to be wrong on the right side I mean I estimate th000 but it turns out to be 10,000 rather than I I estimate 10,000 and turns out to be 1,000 so the whole effort is to figure out that approximate valuation of the companies so intrinsic value for the bonds is very well defined because here what happens is that uh you know the coupon rate you know the tenure you know the uh you know the when are you going to get back the money so when you all the things there is no uncertainty you can actually Define a company a bond which is 8% yield 1,000 uh rupees uh if you want to have yield of 10% the price will be 877 you can you you just put the numbers and the number will come out so but then Equity is not that easy neither you have the fixed coupon nor you have the fixed tenure and you don't know even at what rate you should discount so everything is kind of Uncertain uh to in when you come to equity investing and uh it is your choice uh how you how what assumptions you have have for all the three things so we have uh we have tried to we have so you know basically we were looking for uh a formula where in fact we wrote in uh uh studies when we wrote about qgp we said we are looking at a triangle of 25% Ro 25% growth and 25p if we get this three we we knew that we are going to make uh 25% return without any problem and index is going to do 15% we'll have a nice margin of safety about 10% outperformance that's what the thinking uh but we didn't know why we are saying 25p I mean should it be 20 should it be 30 or 35 that now I think it will be much more clearer with the and we found that uh qg and P is the best discuss I mean uh through the discounted uh cash flow so here uh this is slightly busy but uh earnings growth of 20% Ro of 25 and these are the only two variables because you are continuing growth rate terminal growth rate is of 8% and cost of equity of 13 uh this just a so this is these two are so if your earnings growth is 20% and Ro is 25 you see the free cash flow every year after year year after year the free cash flow is being built because you can make profit but if your uh if your growth rates are significantly higher than Roe or Roe is significantly below the cost of equity so the free basically Market is looking for massive source of free cash flow year after year so here there if your Ro is 25 and earnings growth is 20% you get nicely uh laid out uh what you call free cash flow second is if your earnings the problem is here the earnings growth is 30% and Ro is 14% then you see the negative uh free cash negative flow of the cash you keep building up because your growth capex is building up at a very very rapid pace so what you are paying today of very high P multiple is for the free cash flow which is probably if at all it comes comes Beyond 10 years of the life of the company but people have in the mood of optimism people are willing to pay very high price for the uh free cash flow which is likely to come Way Beyond after 10 10 15 years that is what exactly is happening in lot of companies today so basically it is Roe earnings growth and cost of equity that determine the value triangle so you have the RO at the top earnings growth at the one end and the cost of equity once you have these three things that's what you give the value or you can determine value divided by uh price I mean the earnings earnings divided by price that gives you pe so this is the and all all of them I mean like cost of equ you can say is 12 133% 13% incidentally cost of equity at 133% is the rate actually we have the longest index is SX which technically started from 7980 but actually started trading from 1st January 1986 so the index calculation before that is not very healthy because the index moved by seven times Between 1979 and 1986 so obviously there is lot of uh it's not a good base so but from 1st January 86 if you do it till date it is about 135% compounded return for last 30 32 years so we are saying cost of equity is about 133% and even if you go by the other formula 8 + 5 8% disis free and 5% uh Equity premium that is about 13% but I don't have a big grip or this it could be 9 11% 12% that is matter of discussion but cost of equity is very important earnings growth Ro these three things you have to figure out and then uh that will give us a some kind of a numerical value number and the way it works is that how Roe and growth determines so so the growth cap X you know how do you where the free cash flow comes basically earnings growth minus the growth cap gives you the free cash flow so the growth capex if your Roe is at 20% or 25% 15% and if a growth rate is 20% Then Delta Pat is 20% and 20 Rupees to earn 20 Rupees at 25% you need 20 bucks at 20 rupees you need 100 bucks and at 15 rupees you need 133 so you actually have at one level of uh Roe you have free cash flow and at other level of Roe that is 15% you actually need to to put more money and these two makes a massive difference in the valuation of the companies which Market at times is not able to figure out the difference between uh High Roe company growing at the same pace and uh low Roe company which is growing at uh 15% or so that 15% requires lot of capital to be inputed so next Insight is about all growth is not good and this is very uh I mean at least I I didn't know about I was not so clear about this if roe is less than cost of equity high growth destroys value if if the company is uh destined to make 11 12% which bulk of the companies do they will never create value they will never create value and 60 70% of the market is there today we will show how big a portion of the market is uh struck below 134 p uh Roe so if your cost of equity is 13% if your cost of equity is 13% at 10% uh zero growth is the best because at zero growth everything is free cash flow there's no growth capex and hence 1 by 13 is 770 is your value but below that if you start growing you start destroying wealth at 133% irrespective of the growth rate if Ro is equal to cost of equity at 40% growth 13% Roe the lot of popular company today which are standing here 12 13% Roe and 40 50 60% growth actually the P multiple should be seven or 8 or 10 at best they are trading at 40 50 60p and that is where either the Roe goes up or the valuation collapses so so this is what exactly is the so all the growth is not good what growth is good sorry yeah so growth is growth adds value when Ro is higher than cost of equity so if you start with the third column which is 15% 20% 30% that is higher than 13% so every column at every growth rate it it starts creating value so if roe if growth rates uh so growth adds value only if higher than Ro is higher than cost of equity so this is slightly so there are three things Roe cost of equity Roe and growth all three uh Works in tendem so beyond a point increase in Roe does not add much value it took me some time to grasp this but if a company is at 133% of course there is no value creation but it goes from 13 to 26 look at the graph till about 40% there is an expon I mean very rapid increase in the P but after after that from 40 you go to 400% Roe or even 4,000% Roe your you the P increase is going to be minimal because free cash flow reaches Almost 100% of the profit and your profit your your free cash flow can never cross 100% of the profit so hence your gain in the value is going to be very limited your gain in the value can be only as much as you add in the free cash flow so one has so the so next is earnings growth and well are exponentially correlated the moment your Roe is higher than cost of equity you just got to push the growth because after that it is simply exponential 12% growth 24% growth 36% growth everything will be proportionately higher and there is no limit of course you cannot grow at a high rate for very high long time but earnings growth has that power and that's why markets goes crazy when for 3 four 5 years the growth rates go very high then the markets start giving crazy valuation with their right if the growth had continued but we'll talk about a little later so low Ro company should focus on raising the RO low Ro company should focus on raising the Roe and high Roe company should focus on raising the growth you know so look at the carefully 1% higher Roe gives you 1% higher Roe gives you to high Roe company 1% gain if you push the Roe Beyond 30% when you take it from 30% Roe company a to 31% it will give you gain of only 1% but Company B whose Roe is 16% you raise the Roe by 1% the value created is 12% now the next the 1% growth when the company is highly profitable but growth is low growth is at 10% you grow it by % it gives you 7% additional value when the company B where uh Ro 16% you but growth is 20% so 1% higher growth will give you only 3% so compan so basically the conclusion is if the company is below cost of equity the RO so basically what happens is all the new companies in India they push for right from day one for growth growth growth even we are we are also uh what you call victim of the same thing where day one people start building very rapid growth of 7 80 100% And then what happens is you have not built the what you call success success model for making the profits look at Dio what they did after acquiring for last 5 6 years all the analysts were pressing for growth they didn't bother about the growth they went about building the franchise and now this quarter they declared 20% it may not be sustainable but but still they are way above I mean they went about building it all product rationalization sales marketing branding everything they said it right now they will focus more on the growth so that is the way to go about it and most of the successful companies even I believe uh Avenue supermar first 10 years they built very few stores they tested the model and then when they found it to be working well then they rolled out so many more stores and they are going very very methodically in terms of rolling it out and so it is very important when you start growing and where the value when when the growth creates value sustaining High Roe is even bigger challenge I used to think that high high Roe companies will keep remaining High Ro forever and there are lot of companies so we started from 1998 the companies which sustain Ro above 133% only cost of equity so in 1998 there 136 companies and every year we kept on seeing the same companies at 30 about 13% how many companies are left there only 22 companies left and this is the story you start from any year so very few companies can sustain even 15 177% every year not for very long period and the companies which and then hyper earnings growth is even more difficult and this is another realization to me I used to think the companies which are growing at 25 30% in this growth economy you keep growing for 5 10 15 years I mean and and that's what the market thinks and that's how they build valuation of 100p 80P 90p thinking that growth will continue for very long time so here look at the in 98 in the five just look at the first half 5e period the companies with Pat growth up above 25% for 5e period so in 98 to 2003 they were uh companies with 20 crores profit there were about 188 companies out of that 28 companies had a more than 25% growth average growth for 5 years in the next bucket between 2003 2008 it became 8 and in third Bucket from 8 to 13 it became one so where is the growth I mean high growth it just doesn't sustain and you do it on any period 99 20002 2001 Everywhere by the third bucket no company survives and that one company is nothing but HDFC bank that was the only company which survived for 15 years of more than 25% growth so it just even if you do threee bucket you see what happens I mean first bucket second bucket by the time it is third bucket very little and by the time it is fourth bucket nobody survive so basically high growth phenomenon can last even in this high growth country for not more than 5 six years that is the highest now when do you buy these companies do you buy when the growth starts before that of course you are the best guy you'll be featured in the fastest growing companies and you will win big time but if you buy after growth has started and four years elapsed when the market is all there p is very high and you buy G+ 4 you know what is going to happen you are buying right at the cliff it will collapse literally you can say that the company which is growing at 30 40% for 3 4 5 years it's days are counted forget about the years you know just few quarters it is going to collapse and then the market will realize and uh uh collapse the entire entire thing so high Roe high growth you know I mean intermix of both is very very rare so we have seen uh we have seen uh this you see this slide is very simple this particular strategy Works without any Folly I mean qglp is a thought process around this line High Roe high growth bought at reasonable price so that trouble is still there we'll talk about it but high high growth has always is worked it is summarized here so high Roe high growth has given consistently between 98 to 2018 every single uh periods of 5 years it has given 27% return the second is most surprising but globally also this is a result high growth low Ro reasonably low Ro like more like 14 15% Ro has given 21% and third third lowest is the 14% which is high Roe low growth they give just about the market return because if you see average sensex return this period is about 14% so the only two outperforming segment is high growth High Roe high growth low Roe so that's the only way to make money so growth is very important component of uh outperforming in the marketplace so so that was about valuation let's look at the pricing you know I mean many times we are not able to figure out what is the valuation of a stock because we don't don't have clue about the uh what will happen what how much it will grow but let's look at just the valuation uh sorry pricing what works what doesn't so we have looked at price to earnings price to sales Price to Book price to relative Market Peg payback ratio all the possible whatever I have seen uh in my uh learning that we have done and here we seen if you buy if you happen to buy uh this is this is a this is a threee alpha from 98 to 20 15 so this is a 17e all the periods of three year we have taken and all the instances are given 4,000 instances are there so whenever you bought below 10p there is a there is a good Alpha of about 5% but beyond that it's all about market performance or actually at uh I mean various levels you see the level of underperformance so uh I mean if you buy above 70 above 50 60p you are literally not supposed to make money literally uh I mean I'm talking about if you buy all the there could be one exception here and there but if you buy above 50 60 70p I don't think over a period of time it is going to make money look at the price to earning related to the market if Market is 21p today and if you buy below that then if you buy less than one time of the market even that Lees little bit of uh uh the alpha at about 4% and the 2,000 observation 50% of wealth has been created during this period but this is kind of a significant I would say so most of the time we don't know what is the P of the market right now P of the market is 21 so if you can buy descent company below 20p or 18p I think you have a good chance of uh having some small Alpha the peg I mean I'll just explain this is the peg now those are those are the ratios which we kind of looking at today or past but this is the ratio which is going looking into the future where your earnings forecast is coming into play ttmp divided by future earning gagger today it is such an unfortunate time most of people don't know the what is the last 12 months ttmp I mean people all the analyst they talk about now I think we talk about 20p we don't even talk about 19p so in fact I have seen even my own analyst they don't know what is the ttmp and they know when they're sitting before me first thing they should talk about is ttmp so they have to do extra work to figure out what is the ttmp goam you have to be really observant about the ttmp so ttmp divided by expected 3 years p kaga and uh so the real problem is the ttmp right now ttmp is running at 50 60 70 so to make it look a little more attractive they look at 20p 21p whatever so uh so this is how you calculate your threee peg so if you do a peg of one it works very well it works just brilliant so at less than one peg the average theer Alpha not the return average the alpha is 19% and 33% of all the observation 1,300 observation out of 4,000 is uh is below one peg so whenever you find below one peg Pyon I mean this is going to give you massive amount of return but of course you need the growth inside and uh even up to 1 and a half Peg has worked very well but beyond that it's just a disaster uh and Peg one below one works across the across the time period so we chose three four of them 2000 to 2005 when it was kind of coming from the peak of the uh one of the bull runs at that point of time Alpha for 1 year was 13% 2 year was 38 3 year was 27 you see what has happened but then the discipline has to be uh I mean this is the period in which index did very badly still Alpha was I mean even the peg one companies were below but the alpha was high between 8 to 13 that was the only year one year between 8 and 9 one year there was a negative Alpha of 4% otherwise you look at across the segment the alpha is in double digit between 13 to 18 which is very recent look at the alpha if you if you could buy 177% 39% to year 3 years in 28 these are compounded Alpha uh uh during that particular uh period so this is staggering kind of a result provided we can practice it payback ratio is rehash of the uh p only uh but it is more stringent in the sense that uh this is next 5 years profit uh in in Peg you can have a Insight of 3 years but here you need 5 six years of uh growth estimates and here if you buy less than one peg I mean of course you have 17% Alpha Price to Book also works if you buy if you are able to buy stocks at about one below book so below book buying there are I mean this is like a Graham style very few worthwhile companies you'll find below book but if you can buy below book I think it works again 5 6% Alpha is there price to sales uh also works if you can buy uh good companies below uh one one price to SES so what works what doesn't in pricing is all uh given here in all the parameters if you are able to do it one time Peg one time payback one time Price to Book one time sales below 10p or price related to Market less than one time I think everything has Alpha of different order but the best Alpha is if you have one peg even one year inside forget about 3 5 years that's too long but if you are sure about next one year's growth and if you can buy it say 30% growth you can buy at 27 28p you'll still have a nice Alpha so this is what we have seen and what doesn't work is more powerful look at it anything you pay three times and it just doesn't work above 50p has never worked I mean there could be one exception here or there but what doesn't work is very clear three peg and uh this kind of thing so this is these are the few uh very you know uh I mean uh right at the top is Avenue supermar with 105p uh last 3 4 years growth has been fantastic at about 50% if this company can sustain incidentally chairman of this company sitting here so if it can sustain for next 5 years this kind of growth of course this price is Justified but if you look at other companies page 85 P this is yesterday's p uh United is 82 P hygiene so this kind of P multiples at least in the past they have not made money now this could be a different time and whenever we say this is a different time you know what happens so uh these companies are at crazy valuation are we buying at G+ 3 G 4 or we are buying G minus one I mean is it the start of the growth period we are buying today or actually bulk of the growth is done and we are buying at the end of it so we have to be a little careful uh nesle is 602p with 1% growth in last 3 years and 3% in 5 years 10 10 year is 11% so we have to be very careful in terms of what kind of a growth are there and whether these see these companies will not sink they will make a positive return but they will be far lesser than even 133% more like 8% 7% 12% but they will not SN you because they are such fantastic companies so in conclusion the two key drivers of intrinsic value of return on equity and earnings growth companies create intrinsic value only when they earn Roe higher than cost of equity low Roe companies must focus on increasing R Hari compan should focus on increasing growth Peg less than one is near infallable formula for healthy out performance current market valuations demand robust earnings growth to justify current valuation which remains illusive hence expect Market to remain soft thank you very much
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