저자: MoneyGame진행자—영상내주요인용인물:TomLee,Saylor · 외국인
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BMNR(Bitmain)이 MSTR 방식의 9.5% 배당 우선주(BMNP, 최대 3억달러)를 발행해 이더리움 트레저리를 늘리려 한다는 뉴스를 전함. 최근 BTC·ETH·MSTR·BMNR 급락 후 소폭 반등, ETF 자금 유출과 AI로의 자본 이동이 원인이라는 Saylor 견해 소개. 진행자는 장기적으로 BMNR·MSTR에 긍정적이나 단기 차트는 여전히 약세(일봉)라고 평가하고, 2026년 큰 상승은 기대하지 않는다고 함. Tom Lee는 ETH 25만달러 전망을 제시했으나 진행자는 과도하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
All right, let's jump in and talk about the crash that happened yesterday. Minor rebound today, but Tom Lee explains his new strategy moving forward, which is basically copying MSTR's playbook cuz they're coming out with a preferred stock and we're going to talk about that. And then also Saylor explains why he thinks capital is flowing to AI and flowing away from Bitcoin and how this is a temporary thing, but it is still happening and strategy drops all the way down to 121 yesterday, rebounds a little bit today.
None of this is tax advice, financial advice, or legal advice. Do your own research. Let's jump in right now and let's talk, okay? So, uh Saylor uh first off, Tom Lee has copied Saylor's playbook, but for Ethereum. Bitmain files for a $300 stock offering. Bitmain's launching a strategy-style preferred stock offering to raise fresh capital, expand staking operations, and buy even more ETH.
Probably a good time for be launching something like this to get some optimism up because it has been a bloodbath the last couple days and the last couple weeks in particular, okay? I'll show you some charts on this uh that that may indicate some interesting things happening in just a moment. Uh Tom Lee backed uh Bitmain uh has has filed to launch 3 million in preferred shares.
So, basically, what this means is BM and R is coming out with their own preferred stock just like strategy has their stock of stretch, which is a preferred stock, um and there's a up to a $300 raise and the proposed ticker for this is BMNP. So, just like you have strategy um has different products like stretch, STRC, and uh and other kinds of preferred stock, well, Tom Lee is copying the playbook to a T and he's smart to be doing this because in the future um these uh preferred shares that they're offering up in the marketplace, I think, are going to be a hit.
So, that's pretty cool. The move mirrors the financing strategy used by strategy, also known as MSTR. And the key terms are this, 9.5% annual dividend. Sound familiar? Sounds just like Sailor's offerings that he has in the marketplace with the with preferred stock as well. Weekly cash distributions, sound familiar?
Just like and similar to stretch and perpetual preferred stock structure. So, there you have it. BMLR coming out with a preferred stock. It was only a matter of time before they start started copying Strategy's playbook. The company is creating a new funding vehicle to support its Ethereum treasury expansion.
Similar to Strategy's preferred stock model, it's simple. They raise capital from investors. They put that capital into crypto assets and they generate yield through chat treasury operations. All right? If you're new to this and the understanding of it, the idea behind it is just like strategy with Bitcoin.
Strategy believes that Bitcoin is one of the most valuable assets on the planet. If they can create products like stretch and stride and strife and issue those in the marketplace and customers come and strategy says we're going to pay you 10 or 11%. The reason we can do this is cuz we're backed by Bitcoin and we think Bitcoin is going to go up by an average of 30% per year.
So, we can pay out 10% to our preferred stock holders. And BMLR is doing the same thing. They're basically saying Ethereum is super valuable. At least in the future it's valuable. We write and we know right now in the last several months it's been a bloodbath, but Ethereum is valuable. We know that the long-term infrastructure of the blockchain is not going anywhere.
Therefore, with Ethereum on our balance sheet, we can go out and offer up preferred stock in the marketplace, pay them 9.5% because BMLR believes that Ethereum will go up by more than that amount every single year. Therefore, they can afford to pay out 9.5% to their shareholders. And that's the basic idea behind it and that's what they're doing.
So, that is pretty big news that BMLR is creating a similar model to strategy, but of course instead of using Bitcoin like strategy does, BMNR is using the model for Ethereum. So, you know, needless to say 4 or 5 years these custom these companies are going to be giants. Their balance sheets are going to be huge.
BMNR with Ethereum growing and growing and growing on the balance sheet, MSTR with Bitcoin growing on the balance sheet. 4 or 5 years from now, 10 years from now, these are going to be extraordinary companies. They're just getting crushed right now and this is how these assets work. They're extremely volatile and they can sell off at any moment and if you were watching strategy during the bull run in 2024, you saw that strategy went up to $2,000 during the bull run.
Everybody was all hyped up. I remember this cuz I bought strategy at 79 bucks and then it went all the way up to $2,000 and then it dropped 50% down to 9950 dollars during the bull run. You watch in 2025, a similar story and you're seeing it now in 2026. Strategy goes up to 195 and it drops all the way down to 121.
All right? And BMNR all the way up to $23 and all the way down to $16.80 last night. There's been a little rebound on it. Now, if you want to look at what's happening with BMNR right now, and a little bounce, we'll take a look at the charts here real quick. So, if you look at BMNR on the charts, you can look at this on the 2-hour time frame.
You can see that there's a little bit of a move happening here on the 2-hour time frame. So, as I was analyzing this today and I'm looking at it, I'm like, "Okay, you look at this chart right here when they when BMNR is yellow, you can see like the sell-off was indicated here on the 2-hour chart. If you go all the way back, you look at when it started thinning yellow.
Uh and they're going yellow right around here. The price point for BMNR here was $19. So, that was another warning to get out on the daily charts that I've been showing you guys day after day here. Uh the warning was to get out of BMNR at like $21.70 and had one fall of that, they could have picked up a big game big gain and bought down at the bottom on the two-hour charts which update more frequently.
There was another warning get out at $19. It went all the way down to $16.80. Um, if you understand these charts at all or don't, don't worry about it. I'll just explain it. When it's yellow, you stay out. And when it goes below this green dotted line all the way down here, that's more like that's that's considered like pay attention that could be buying territory, right?
Now, I'm not recommending anybody do anything. I'm just teaching you the theory of how I use this. Again, this is TradingView technology and Invest Answers, so credit to our credit is due on the technology. And then when you start to see a signal like this where it's yellow and then it hits the bottom and you get a little buy signal in here.
This would have been a nice time to potentially layer in here around the the green buy and that was at a $16.99 price point and now it's up at $17.68. So, if one followed that move today, that would have been a 3% pick up. Okay? So, pretty simple on how these charts work. Yellow is good. Blue Yellow is not good.
It's like stay out of the asset. Blue is good. You know, when it's blue, you consider getting into the asset. Again, not financial advice on this. Just showing you how I use the charts. But, it's very very simple to use these charts. And so, BMNR, it's nice to see a a little bit of a turn happen on the two-hour.
We'll see what happens when we wake up tomorrow. But, if we look at the daily chart, the daily chart is still extremely bearish. Um, as you see it down here on the daily chart on BMNR. Um, and it is it is way but way you know, when it's way below this line down here, if you see the with this green line, it's below it.
It's It's far away from its average price. So, it's definitely sold off. Could it have been a bottom at $16.80? Maybe. Uh, but on the daily chart, it's still bearish. So, when I look at this, I pay attention to this line kind of sloping down here, the yellow. And it's still kind of tilting downward the the yellow like it's a little slope downward.
Uh it may eventually turn up, but right now we're still bearish on the daily and we have been since the price point was at 2160, $21.60 on BMNR. It was like just get out. So I follow the daily from a longer-term perspective I if I'm trading BMNR over like 2 weeks, a month, 2 months, I'm paying attention to the daily.
If I'm trading on a week-to-week or every couple day basis, I'm paying attention to the 2-hour charts here. As you can see there's a nice move here where it started to get blue again. That would have been a nice move to get in at least for the day for me and pick up some 3% here. And and so the charts are just easy to read.
Okay, if you want more on these charts, you can go down below. Highly highly recommend learning this. It's just one of these things where you know, you can have all the good news in the world. Like there's good news coming out right now on BMNR and how they're going to do a preferred stock-like strategy, but good news doesn't necessarily move a stock.
Um and who knows what's going to happen tomorrow. But if you follow the data and you follow the charts, it's much easier to interpret and interpret on data based rather than hyped headlines, you know? So I'll keep updating you on what's going on with this, but that's basically how I read these charts.
So there's a full video down below shows you how I use it on a daily basis. You can snag that. You just go click the link down below. You'll get my book for free, download my book and a video will come with it on how I use these charts, okay? All right, hope it serves you on that. There's more news coming.
So again, I'm reporting the news here. It doesn't necessarily mean we're going bullish interesting news for BMNR on a preferred stock. So it's good for the future, but right now obviously the stock price is as low as it's as low as it's been, right? So when they do come out with instead of Bitcoin, Bitmain is using the model for Ethereum.
Of course, they're going to issue this preferred stock backed by Ethereum on their balance sheet and proceeds may be used for additional ETH purchases, expanding staking operations, validator infrastructure growth, or Ethereum ecosystem investments, all right? So, the goal remains clear. BMNR is still sticking to their strategy, increase ETH exposure, and they're still doing it.
And despite the fact that the price is super low, uh he continues to be aggressive, Tom Lee. That not helping us in the short term or anybody who holds BMNR. Obviously, the news is crap, so I'm not trying to sugarcoat anything because the stock price is crap, right? The news on it on the other hand is good for the long term, but the stock price is crap right now, okay?
Despite billions in unrealized losses, BMNR is still expanding, right? And that's the game. Tom Lee isn't slowing down. He's building a strategy-style Ethereum treasure machine designed to keep accumulating ETH at scale. So, he's smart coming out with this, right? Instead Instead of issuing common shares in the marketplace, uh which he's been doing quite a bit to buy more Ethereum, he can now issue different credit-type instruments like his new preferred stock uh that he's going to raise 300 million with.
And there's going to be a hot demand for it, just like there has been for strategy, so I don't expect it to have much trouble at all raising the money to do this, and his products will probably become household names like strategies are starting to become, okay? But basically, Tom Lee now believes Ethereum could reach 250,000.
Probably not the news to state on the day that uh uh Ethereum is low and BMNR is down at its lowest. I don't think anybody's going to believe into that, but it's a nice projection for the future to show that he remains extremely bullish. I think that's uh a bit hyped up, but hey, there you go. That would represent roughly a 50x move from current levels.
I think people are just looking right now for a give me a 20%, give me a 40%, give me a 60% move, not 50x moves. But that's his belief in the future. I don't doubt that in the future we're going to be looking at BMNR and Ethereum at much higher levels, but what I'm looking for 5-year time frames, not 2026.
And I also think in 2026, and I've been saying this, that I'm not sold on the bullishness of 2026. I've been saying this for the last couple months because we've had typically had after bull runs, we haven't had great years at all. In fact, we've had bad years. So, the fact that this is an institutional type um uh kind of asset now like Bitcoin's becoming more of an institutional asset and so is Ethereum.
And the fact that the infrastructure changed in terms of the money flowing into it, it's definitely a change. It's probably why we haven't had the bigger drawdowns like we had on Bitcoin. Uh but at the same time uh we're still in a phase where, you know, the year after the bull run typically isn't a great year.
So, uh I'm not uh expecting anything major and by looking at the charts, um you know, who knows how long we'll sit down at this level, but we'll see. All right. Current market backdrop ETH obviously below 2,000 is at 1,700. Um 1,700 and change. Uh outflows have been accelerating. So, no surprise ETF outflows have been massive.
Bitcoin outflows on their ETFs have been massive. There's record short positioning going on right now and there's negative sentiment everywhere. Tom Lee's view is if you're bearish day, you're bearish at the bottom. So, Tom thinks this is the bottom. Again, we touched with Bitcoin, you remember a couple months ago at 62 K.
Uh Ethereum, I think we dropped down into the 1,700 level um a couple months ago as well. We're back down there. All right. And all of this comes to my point of what I've been saying uh for a while is just like I'm unwilling to sit here with sitting on my hands just watching the market do what it's doing, which is go up, go down, and ETH stay between 1,700 and 2,200.
How long have we been playing this game for 6 months now? Uh Bitcoin, same thing. Back you know, between 63,000 and $80,000. How long have we been playing this game for months and months now? If you look at MSTR, how long have we been playing this game for months and months now? So, I use these charts to make trades.
I make moves on this stuff all the time. And uh and it's just good data to have because we could be sitting like this throughout 2026 or we could have a move but when we have a move I'll know when we have a move you know so that's why data is important and that's why technical analysis is super important I know you sometimes hear from incredibly smart people who run these large large companies who say just buy buy buy and you know don't worry about technical analysis but that's fine for an institution that's going to buy billions and billions of dollars of Bitcoin or Ethereum it's not fine for an individual who needs to make decisions that are more shorter term sometimes or wants to pick up gains shorter term and is not willing to hold for four or five six years through the volatility okay so it's about managing the volatility not just sitting through the volatility just sitting through the volatility a lot of times can be emotionally crushing and financially crushing all right that's my personal point of view all right you do as you please I'm just sharing my personal point of view so that's what's going on again if you want access to these videos down below there's a video on how I utilize these charts and how I make moves on a weekly basis monthly basis and also daily basis okay all right so that's the story on that there's some news from Saylor what he's thinking about the the markets right now and I'm going to share that with you you know what Tom Lee thinks he believes the next wave of AI will require machine to machine payments instant global settlement settlement automated economic activity what does that all mean means we're going to need Ethereum we're going to need the blockchain okay AI AI agents will need blockchain infrastructure Ethereum becomes the settlement layer so he keeps building his case for why Ethereum is going to be the settlement layer I don't disagree with him at all I 100% believe that's the case that the blockchain will thrive into the future I think Ethereum will be one of the chains that absolutely thrives which is why I believe BMNR long term is a phenomenal stock doesn't change the fact that it hasn't done anything in the last five months and that's what I've been talking about here on the show how do you handle that okay Wall Street is increasingly moving assets on chain we know this so we know long term it's going to be good it's my personal point of view right It's going to be great four years in the future.
I think BMNR and MSTR are going to be phenomenal companies. We got stable coins, stocks, funds, real world assets all moving onto the blockchain. There's no, I think counter argument to be made that the blockchain isn't a real thing that's moving into the future and traditional finance is merging with digital finance.
It is happening, it is doing, it is done, it is going into the future. That is not the argument. It's just it's going to be volatile and it's going to be volatile four years from now like it is now. Maybe not to the same degree of volatility, but if you look at BMNR one year into its life or its shelf life as a company that owns Ethereum, to think that three years from now we're not going to face the same volatility, maybe not to the extremeness of it, but get ready.
I mean, MSTR five years later has been a roller coaster. BMNR will be in my opinion four or five years from now. That's why I learned to manage volatility and that's why I've been sharing this with you guys on the show and I will continue to show you the data on the charts on how I manage the volatility, okay?
Tom Lee believes Ethereum becomes the backbone of this financial transformation. Okay, all good. We know this and let's skip on to Saylor. AI is absorbing the market's capital and this is why he believes Bitcoin isn't running up at this time into the degree that it should be and why MSTR is not cuz AI is running right now.
There's a bull run going on with AI and it's competing for dollars right now in the crypto marketplace. AI is the hottest new thing and we are all seeing this. And so, according to Saylor, approximately 400 billion has flowed into AI infrastructure and related investments over the past six months. That's a big deal.
Capital chasing AI opportunities, less liquidity going into crypto, no dough for crypto or not as much. It's going to AI, okay? Increased pressure on Bitcoin prices. Since May 14th, roughly $4 billion has exited Bitcoin ETFs. Not good, okay? And if you go look at the charts that I was showing that I showed, watch yesterday's show cuz I showed you the charts on May 14th, that's when the signals were to get out.
It's no secret that when the ETFs start having outflows, you pay attention, you look at the data on the charts, and you can see that the charts are responding to these outflows cuz what drives often times the price moving up or down, a lot has to do with the ETFs. Yes, some of it has to do with sailor buying, but we also saw sailor buy like what, 2 weeks ago, $2 billion and MSTR tanked.
So, you can't just look at the headlines, you can't just look at this happening. You got to verify the state and go, "Wow, ETFs are having outflows, I should pay attention, the price might drop." Then, when you get headlines like that, you literally go straight to the charts and you go, "Great, what's happening on the charts?
Are we blue or are we yellow?" And when we're yellow, I make the move to get out. When it's blue, that's when it's more bullish, okay? So, today we had a little blue uptick on BM and R. It doesn't mean it's going to last, but you can see the blue uptick. We went from, you know, way down at 1680 up to $17.65, okay?
And you can see it on the chart. Make sense? All right, so there's that. So, that's the story. Uh that's what's happening. That's Saylor's reason for all of this taking place. Um and, you know, if you look at the down downness over, uh you know, the last week's 14% in 1 week, 23% over 4 weeks. No bueno, okay?
Sell-off has fueled concerns that institutional conviction is fading. I don't think institutional conviction is fading long-term, I just think it is definitely fading in the short-term by what we're seeing in the price action. Long-term, the infrastructure is strong, okay? So, that's basically why I had to show.
I got to run out to another meeting, but I did want to share this with you. There is good news in summary. Tom Lee coming out with preferred stock for BM and R. That's very, very good for the future, but of course, we had the sell-off. Um and the sell-off was not good at all. And, you know, 2026 um is 2026.
It's after the bull run, it's the year after the bull run. I'm not expecting big things to happen right now. Uh we're down in the in the gutter, and I'll show you the charts to see if we're going to have any turnarounds, and I'll keep updating you week to week and every couple days, all right? Hope this serves you.
If want my book Money Game, go get it down below. If you want to know how I'm using the charts, you can go snag that down below as well. I have a full video on how I use these charts on a daily basis. And of course, shout out to TradingView and InvestAnswers cuz this is their technology. I have no affiliation with them.
I just want to make sure they get credit, okay? Hope you guys have a good day and subscribe to the show if you're not subscribed. Talk to you soon.
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