저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
BMNR·MSTR이 저점 대비 반등했으나 주간 차트 회복은 불확실하다고 봄. 연준 금리인상 확률 하락, 미 10년물 금리 5.37%→5.12로 완화, 비트코인 ETF 유입 증가가 호재. 유가 상승과 ETH ETF 자금 유출은 부담. 장기적으로 약세장이 끝났다고 보며 2028년 반감기 전후 강세를 기대.
다듬은 글
BMR bounces back up incredibly. This morning it was down to $21.11. It is now worth over $23 . Same with MSTR—the low was 133. Today it rose to 146. So, this is not tax, financial, or legal advice. But the boom is back, and today we'll take a look at the charts to see if it will continue. So Tom says: BMR is rebounding, is this for long?
Well, it went up, um, at the time of the video it was at 22.81, but it's still over $23 now . So, today it has grown by over 6%. MSTR is now back at around 145. So it really has increased by over 6%. And you know, a rebound is not a full recovery. So, both stocks rose more than 5 or 6%. One day of recovery is good.
Please remember that this is not tax, financial, or legal advice. But this morning the minimum range was very low. Look at the difference between the low of $21 and the high of $23.46 . This is a significant move for BMR . So the next price tests will be at $23.46. Will he be able to break this level again?
See you sometime this week. MSTR low today is 133, high is 146.75, almost touched 147. This is definitely quite important. The reason is the greater inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs, and we are going to take a look at that. Will MSTR hold the $140 level? Well , we'll see. Okay, the main question is: will buyers continue to show up?
Well, here's the good news, okay? The probability of a Fed rate hike is now only 16.1%. If you look at a couple of weeks ago, it was around 50%. She fell. So, this is good news for cryptocurrency. In October, the probability of no rate changes is about 83%. It will simply remain at the current level.
And if you look at the decrease in fear, a week ago the probability was about 23%, yesterday it was 18.4%, and now it has dropped to 16.1%. So, less fear helps the rebound, and we're seeing that today . December still carries some risks, so people expect another rate hike this year. Now the probability that this will happen in December is about 87% .
In the future, everything may change. So, higher rates by December are likely. Why do high stakes matter? Well, it's very simple. Borrowing is becoming more expensive. So, rates are going up, businesses that want to borrow money, people that want to borrow money to invest in cryptocurrency or BMNR or MSTR, they need to borrow, and that's expensive.
So, this is not good for crypto, right? Also the 10-year Treasury yield , if you're following it: when the crash, or rather the sell-off, started, when MSTR and BMNR were high, around 170 for MSTR and 27-28 for BMNR, we saw the 10-year Treasury yield rise to 5.37%, the highest since 2022. So, this is a bad sign.
This has now eased somewhat, with the figure falling to 5.12% , down from 5.14% in the previous report. So, this is good news for crypto, when Treasury yields start to fall, it brings back investors and stimulates demand, which is good, right? So why might lower yields help? Less pressure on borrowing costs.
People want to borrow money, and if yields are lower, the rate for loans becomes lower, and people like that. So, that's good. Oil did not change its price significantly. Brent fell on Monday, but US crude rose on Monday. The Brent crude price was estimated at around 109 on Monday. This is 0.3% lower on the day.
US crude was at 103 on Monday, with WTI up 2.2% on the day. So, Tuesday's oil report: 111 for Brent, 109 for WTI. We see that this is growth, right ? Why does expensive oil matter? Fuel and shipping are becoming more expensive, which again puts pressure on inflation. This will potentially force the Fed to raise interest rates more quickly, and that’s not good for crypto at all , okay?
So if we look here, we see that Bitcoin funds received 526 million on Monday . That's why you see the rally and growth of the crypto market. Bitcoin topped 83,000 today as more money is being returned to ETFs . And that's what you should watch out for. If money flows into ETFs, that's good. But Ethereum released 103 million yesterday.
We'll see if that changes today. Tomorrow we will find out if there were any new capital inflows. So, if you look at Bitcoin: solid negative values, and only one positive day, October 19th, at 526 million. And Ethereum was in the red all week . Look at this. This is negative, negative, negative. Let's see if today changes that .
So, if you look at the charts, the only thing to look at that is really important is the weekly trend. This is what I keep talking about—the weekly trend. So you look at the weekly BMNR trend here, and when the weekly trend turns red, that's when I start to get really worried. Uh, if you see the weekly trend, it's been green here for a while.
And why this is important: If you look back, you know, the weekly trend was red for a long time, guys. Very long. So when you look at it, you know, you can trace it back to the beginning. I mean, look how far back. So, the weekly trend is significant when it changes. And we can trace this back to $50 on October 27, 2025, when BMNR started to turn red on a weekly trend.
This is important because he stayed like this for almost a whole year, dudes. It remained red for almost a year. So I'm watching it from an investment perspective because when it starts to turn green, it's a significant, very significant move, as you saw, because it hasn't turned a damn green in almost a whole year.
Look at this. Of course? By the way, if you don't have training on these charts, go down below, click on the link, get my book and get my video for free that will give you additional training on these charts. It's like flying blind without these charts—it's madness. That's where it turns green at $18.17 on August 3rd.
Look at this. On a weekly schedule. And now, you know, if someone walked in at that moment, look. All the way up. All the way up. And now we're green, but I'm not...If it turns red and stays red for a week, I'll be worried. But right now it's still green. And the best part of this is also about MSTR.
If you look at MSTR, MSTR is green on a weekly trend. Very good, right? So, this is good news from a long-term bullish perspective , as you just saw , okay? Now the other thing I look at is the daily schedule. So I won't be convinced that we're back in a " bull" market until the daily charts change.
And on the daily MSTR charts, somewhere around 150, you know, around 155, there was an exit signal. Maybe 152, 155. There was a signal to exit on the daily timeframe. As you saw, we were going down to 133. We are now at 143 on the charts. Almost 144. So when it turns green again and the weekly trend for MSTR is green, I'll be happy with that.
Same with BMNR. If it turns green, although right now it doesn't look like it will turn green at all, right? We definitely need a few more days of traffic to make it green. You can see how bright red it still is. And it started to turn around somewhere around $26 at the top, right? We knew it would decline somewhere around $26.50.
Does that make sense? So all of this is important, just pay attention. The reason I programmed these indicators is because I wanted to know what was happening in the short term, tired of a month going by and you getting a 20 or 30% drop in cryptocurrency. It's like, " Damn it. I wish I knew when this was going to go down." So the daily charts helped a lot with that.
And then of course, over the next year, or let's call it months, I wanted to know when the market was going to go up. And the green color tells me about it, okay? The green color shows me when we're getting " bullish," okay? So, as long as we stay in the green zone on the weekly chart, we're doing well in the longer term.
A longer term could mean months, maybe a year, etc. Just keep following the charts, okay? So, below are the videos and tutorials. You can get it for free. And you know , this will be especially useful for me for the next growth , because I currently hold positions in BMNR and MSTR. So for the next bull market, when we start to go up, which could happen, you know, next year, the forecasts for MSTR on average from analysts are about $229 over 12 months.
That would be about a 50 percent increase from where we are now over the next 12 months. Then, sometime in April 2028, when the halving occurs, we might expect a bull market to begin around that time. Again , I'm not a seer, but I expect a bigger BMNR rally and will be keeping an eye on these charts, specifically the weekly charts.
That's why I created this. So, below, go ahead and take this training. I think it really helps you understand how to look at these things in the short term and how to look at them in the long term, okay? Now, if we go back and look here, BlackRock's Bitcoin fund raised 665 million. So this is also a good sign for the trend.
When you see outflows from ETFs , that's when you say, "This is not good." When you see the tributaries coming back, that's good. And that's exactly what happened recently, okay? That's still not the case with Ethereum. Yesterday, $ 95 million was withdrawn from BlackRock's Ethereum fund. While Bitcoin in funds rose, Ethereum fell.
So we want that to come back for Ethereum as well, and I have a hunch that the inflows today were positive, judging by the movement that we saw, okay? Here's the story with this. BMR balance definitely needs to continue this trend. Its share price recovered this morning, but the withdrawal of funds from its ETF remains a cause for caution.
So we need to see this come back and come back consistently for ETH and BMNR to get more price growth. The CryptoQuant bullish score in the October 13 report is 80 out of 100. So, this is pretty good and solid news. Now the question remains: will we see any kind of surge here in October? Given that the probability of a Fed rate hike is now low, could we get a hike closer to the end of October?
People were expecting a surge, but we didn't get it in the first half of October. They expected this because after the typical bear market that we had in 2021, the year after the recovery in 2022, we had a nice growth in cryptocurrencies in October. And during the previous bull market, we also had a nice rise in October after a bear market.
So, as you can imagine, people were expecting some bullish activity in October. Hence the name "October growth." We did n't get that. We got the opposite. We got a sale, but we still have 10 days and we'll see what happens, okay? So, expected demand is still weak as inflows into ETFs are not happening right now .
Is the bear market over? This is the main question that worries people. I personally believe that the bear market is over, and the reason I think so is because the weekly charts are green. Um, for BMNR it's thin but still green and we can grow here over the next week or 10 days to make this green trend line stronger for BMNR.
MSTR is still pretty stable on MSCR, but remember, you know, when you look at what happened first, the breakout for BMNR happened first when we started to take off, like that move from $13 all the way up to $29. On the weekly charts, BMNR turned first. On the daily charts, BMNR turned first, while MSCR and Bitcoin turned later .
So, you know, there could be a break here on this weekly chart for MSCR where it gets even thinner, but let's hope that doesn't happen , okay? So, these are the charts I follow. I hope this video was helpful to you. If you like , subscribe and like the channel. I show up here about a few times a week.
I usually always do a video on Sunday that gets you ready for Monday, so stay tuned for Sunday's video as well. I'll probably do another one on Thursday. And then, if you want to get trained on indicators like these, you can click below, get my book for free, and also watch a detailed video training on these indicators, okay?
I hope you have a wonderful rest of the day, and may everything continue to go well for you. Be healthy .
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