저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
BMNR은 PMI 강세와 10년물 금리 5% 급등으로 단기 조정이 있었으나 주봉 추세는 여전히 강세라고 주장. 자체 개발한 일봉·2시간봉 지표로 과거 1년간 9회 매매를 백테스트한 결과 건당 약 13% 수익이라고 설명하며, 과거 데이터일 뿐 미래를 보장하지 않는다고 반복 명시. 장기 관점에서는 주봉 추세 전환 시 이익실현 전략이 보유보다 유리했다는 MSTR 사례도 제시.
다듬은 글
There was a small sell-off in BMR today to around $2,740, closing slightly higher. And why did this happen? Well, overall, the PMI index turned out to be hot. It measures the strength of business activity in the economy. When it exceeds 50, the economy is growing. And today in the report it reached 58, the highest in five years.
The 10- year bond yield rose by more than 5%, and traders got a little scared, so they started selling. So today I'm going to share something super- super-cool with you. Your jaw will drop. Nine BMR deals in the last year or so, and I'll show you on the charts what exactly triggers them. And you will like it.
And I'll show you that in a moment. And also I'm going to show you that you don't have to worry, I don't think, from a long-term perspective about BMR, because if you look at the charts, remember I'm talking to you from a long-term investment perspective. I look at the weekly charts and they are still bullish.
So, even though we had a sell-off today, I personally don't care because the weekly trend is still very, very strong. This is not tax, financial, or legal advice. So do your own research. But I'm going to jump right in and show you these nine BMR deals that are super cool. Not financial advice . And again, these agreements that I'm going to share now are nine historic agreements.
So , the past has no bearing on the future, but I'll show you nine out of nine deals on the chart. These nine deals total 207% over the last year. Again , this is just historical data. This has nothing to do with the future, but I'm showing you my technology that I wrote and built, and we're going to move on to that now .
The first thing we're going to look at here is this graph of these different deals. So, let's do 1-2-3 trades very quickly. The third trade, as you can see, targeted 13.27%. The second auction is 13.28%. So, you get the point. They are all targeted at approximately 13%. From four to six, the same. And then trading from seven to nine–the same.
So, we will look at two specific examples. The first one we're going to look at now is August 12, 2025, and I'll show you one from August 2025, and more recently, another one in 2026. So you can see two different perspectives on this. Now, if you look at the chart, it says that the buy signal appeared on August 12th at a price of $58.40.
I am often asked, “So, what determines or triggers a purchase for you?” How do you make decisions about this ? I'm just showing you how I make decisions about this. But I created these indicators because I didn't want to spend the rest of my life flying blindly into eternity, guessing where the market would go.
I want to be able to predict with a high degree of confidence where it will go. These are just probabilities. There are never any guarantees , but I think this one will drive you crazy. So, let's go over here and look at the daily chart. You can see this on the daily charts on August 12th. You can see that there was a purchase here.
Good. And this is August 2025. So, you can see on the daily charts, which is extremely important. On the daily charts, you can see the trend line turning from red to green. OK? So, these are indicators. I coded these indicators. When it goes from red to green on the daily chart, I get up and pay attention.
And you can see that this deal here, on the 12th, where I'm circling now, you can see that it happened on the 12th and it said "buy." Um, and this is right here, actually on the 12th . So right here, as you can see, on the 12th, where the line goes, that's where the buy happened, and it came in at about $58 to make the buy.
Then, about a day later, there was a sell-off and it went up 13%. So the determining factor for entering this trade at that time was to buy BMR when you watch it turn from red to green on the trend line . But there needs to be enough thickness on the trend line that, as you can see here, it's starting to get a little thicker to actually determine whether it's worth buying or not.
But this is also determined not only by the daily schedule. This is also determined by the lower timeframe, which is the two-hour timeframe, which should also be green, like this. So , coming back here, I'm showing you on my graph what we see on the screen, here are the numbers that show how this worked.
So if you see here how it worked on the screen, the buy price on the screen that I just showed you with the green graph was $58.40 back on August 12, 2025. The sale took place at $6,629. So each of these deals, for which I have figured out the pattern, codified it, put it into indicator targets, each of them is focused on approximately 13% profitability.
You can see this deal from August 12, 2025, bought for $58.40, sold for $66.29. The reason I'm showing this on yesterday's show is because I showed the take profit indicator for BMR. The day before yesterday I showed the MSTR take profit indicator. So, some people hold investments and then let them grow, and want to capture profits as they go.
The ones I showed yesterday showed that locking in the profits in what I created in my script was a better situation for me and personally for the future. Here's how I would do it, um, than just holding the asset. Specifically, it's just buying, selling, buying, selling nine times during the year. And each of these trades that I show brought in about 13% profit with the purchase and sale.
This is just historical data. This is what I just coded. So this is not a promise of the future at all . I'm just showing that patterns can be developed and captured in the market. You look at patterns in the market, and, uh , with the technology we have today, there's the ability to code indicators to actually do that.
Good. The next thing I'm going to show you is another graph, July 21, 2026 . So, we'll move on to the graphs. These are different. This is closer to the present. And on July 1st, um, there was a buy signal for BMR at $16.99, and then the exit was at $ 1929. So I'll show you that on the charts now so you can see the actual indicator.
We'll move on to, um, we'll move right here. Let's move on to the video. So, we'll go here, and we'll go to this particular date in July, and we'll go to July 20, 2026, because the last one we looked at was about a year before that. So, I would like to go to one for the present and just show you that the market is in a different time, but the underlying trend is similar.
So again, just to show you here on the chart, $1699 is a buy. Um, and the sale is $19.29. And you can see that it is July 21st. So, when we get to the charts, I'll show you the exact date here. Good. So, we'll move on to July 21st, and we'll look at July 21st. We move on to the daily schedule. And here you can see a similar pattern where you have thinning.
You have red and then it starts to turn green and you notice the thickness of the green, right? He is getting fatter and fatter . And then on July 21st, about here, about the thickness, there is a purchase on July 21st, 2026. And then a few days later you can see that the daily chart is still green .
See how long the daily chart stays green? And then there's a taker that triggers on this indicator, which again from the same indicator has reached about 13%, and you can see here that it's reaching 13%. $16.99 is a buy, and then the sell-off comes at $1,929. Okay, so the pattern here just shows different strokes for different people.
I'm not saying there's one way to do something. I'm just saying that out of the last three shows I've done , one is for people who hold stocks, it's just educational material to show a scenario where someone holds stocks and wants to lock in a profit . There is a way to win by doing this. And also with that, it's just buying and selling throughout the year, buying and selling throughout the year, buying and selling throughout the year.
And these are nine different examples of buying and selling. And you can see in the graph here, and this is really important, look. And by the way, if you want more data on this , I have coded these indicators. And so if you want to learn this, there's a video below on how to use indicators like this that shows how I use it daily, weekly, and monthly.
You can get it below. You click on the link below. You can get my book on cash games for free, and also check out this training which goes into much more detail on how I execute these types of trades on a daily, weekly and monthly basis. The purpose of this chart is to show you what you can buy and sell in this historical scenario , where nine different trades can be made.
And you see here, for all nine completed deals, the target for each BMR deal was approximately 13%. And each of these deals approached the 13% mark, showing better results. Good. Uh, and this is done by following these indicators. And this is done mainly using daily charts. So , the way I use daily charts, that is, when I use a daily chart like this, you can see that it's August.
We can even move to the present and we can move to the future. The way I use these graphs is very present, right? The market is closed right now if I look at the daily charts. So, daily charts, if I'm going to make moves over a month or two months, I look at daily charts. And so the moves that I just showed you, the average holding time of one of these trades, where you, as I showed you, could buy the stock then at, um, and sell at about 13% on each of these trades.
The holding time for these shares ranged from 3 days, one day to two weeks. So these weren't long holding periods, these were faster deals. So using daily charts, um, is the way I do it, um, to make faster trades and get in and out. If I'm using, um, a long-term time horizon, then I turn to weekly charts.
And weekly charts are what I look at to see long-term trends. So when we look at this, if you didn't watch the video the other day, you can see here on July 27th, the weekly BMR, um, or August 3rd, actually, the weekly trend for BMR changed. So, if I were holding this asset and looking at it from a long-term perspective, I would look at the weekly and think, " Wow, we just changed the weekly." And if you didn't watch the show yesterday , the reason the weekly is so important is because it hasn't changed that much over the past 10 months.
It changed color twice. Here, in a bull market, there will be a bearish one at $49. It turns red and stays red the whole time. And then, after the recent change, it went down from $49 all the way down to, hell , $12, $13, and down to about $18, $17, $18, it's kind of like, “Okay, the trend has changed; "you can see that the trend has changed." So , from a long-term perspective, I'm looking at the weekly.
So if I'm looking at long-term moves to invest in an asset, and then eventually when the bull run happens again, if I hold that asset when the bull run happens, if the bull run happens, I 'll look at the weekly charts for when to take profits. Of course? So, it's different steps for different people, you know; People have different lifestyles, different choices, different decisions.
I just know that for me, there are two things that I wanted to make sure of over the last, you know, almost 10 years of working with digital assets like Bitcoin, and then of course, you know, buying MSTR for the first time in 2020, watching the rocket go up and the rocket go down. I wanted to have different options to play with these assets because I like these assets, but they are extremely volatile.
Therefore, this chart shows a different scenario, not profit-taking. It's just nine different trades where someone buys and then sells, and the goal is a 13% profit. And that's what I just showed on the show. And you can see here these two deals that I just showed. These two deals, ahem, did just that.
And actually, all of these nine deals that you see here on the histogram, these are deals 7 through 9, 13.31%, 13.34%, 13.28%. These are trades six, four, five and six, 13.3, 13.28, 13.28, 28. You notice that they all seek the same take profit, because there is a certain pattern. And when there is a pattern in the market that you can identify and you can visually observe it, then you can identify patterns and actually know when to take steps based on the data.
And you know, that's really the main goal of me creating this show— to inform based on data, not what's just happening in the headlines. Um, and headlines can definitely tell us which way the price might go that day, because we can look at the charts here and think, "Oh, that's the way things are going, but certainly one headline like today that came out doesn't move the weekly charts." You can see that these are weekly charts.
So, one headline like today where, uh, the PMI comes back hotter than expected, um, that caused a little bit of a sell-off because people are like, "Oh, [ __ ]." Right? For example, uh, if the economy is really doing well, and, uh, we're creating a whole bunch of things, then the Fed can come out and say, "Hey, you know, maybe it's time for us to raise rates again, because things are doing really well and are strengthening, so we can raise rates." And that was a concern today, and that was partly the reason for the sell-off.
But you can see that this did not change the weekly trend. Um, and also, if you look at the daily trend, it didn't really change the daily trend much, did it? So, the daily trend is still hot and it is still bullish. So he has n't really changed. Hmm, even if you saw a price drop of four or 5%. Right?
So these are trend lines to pay attention to so you don't panic in a day or two. But certainly, when I consider making decisions about BMR in the future, I definitely look at what's happening on a daily basis. It was a worrying moment. But you can see that this was right when the Fed... This whole area here in red is the Fed.
And before that, you did n't have this with BMR. You had two months of just green green. Good. OK. So, that was the biggest breakthrough I made in investing. Hmm, you know, we've all made our mistakes, thinking that the price would go up forever. I created this because I made this mistake of thinking it would grow.
It will go up and up and then you're just amazed because the bull market is over before you can say, "Oh my God, we were in a bull market, and all you know is we're out of a bull market." Next thing you know, prices drop by 50–80%. So I wanted to avoid that, so I created data-driven indicators that allow you to watch what's happening in the market, see trends.
And you know, the other thing is, it's not much different from business. Just like in business, you look at the charts, you look at the trends and you see what's happening. So , if the graph is pointing upwards, it is a good indicator. If the graph is pointing downwards, it is a bad indicator. Hence the word " indicators".
And they can help identify trends and make better decisions. Good. I hope this helped you. Uh, just a quick summary. Uh , if you're just joining us on this, uh, this was an example of a few different trades happening, um, in a hypothetical scenario. None of this guarantees anything will happen in the future, but I was just running, if I applied these indicators, uh, over the last year of BMR, what would the results be?
And in historical testing of this, the results would be nine out of nine. I would buy from BMR every time. I would target a 13% deal, as you can see here. And in these nine scenarios, the indicator won, uh , nine different times, giving a really good result. Now, the thing about backtesting that you should always be warned about is that it doesn't guarantee that something like this will happen in the future.
However, having data about the past , applying patterns to the future makes much more sense to me than just acting blindly. And that's why I created this. And so, I hope these scenarios were helpful. If you want more data on this, you can just say, "Hey, Ted, I'd like to see something about this." I'm constantly coding different things.
Uh, different types of scenarios that I'm constantly considering. Uh , what happens if we take a profit here? What happens if we record a profit from BMR? What happens if I lock in a profit with MSTR? What happens if I just buy and sell ? So, I created all these different indicators. If you want to get more training on how I do it and how I apply it, it's below.
You can get it. Uh, tuition is free. It concerns indicators like this. Uh , and my book on cash games is also free. Uh , then you can see that the new version is coming out here. There is a free version below. You can just get it for free. Good. I hope this is helpful to you guys. Uh, this week I'll be back with some different stuff and show you different scenarios and, uh, different shots, different people.
Good. If you are not part of the channel, I am coming in. I talk about BMR, MSTR, Ethereum, and Bitcoin every time I'm here. This week was entirely dedicated to numbers and data. Uh, looking at different scenarios and mathematical calculations to see in this scenario in the past, if I had fixed the profit, where would I be?
Uh , yesterday, if you missed this video, watch it. It was, uh, a BMR take profit indicator. The day before, there was an MSTR take-profit indicator. Uh, MSTR1 produces a lot more, uh, data, uh, because it has a four-year time horizon, which I checked on the back. And the whole scenario that I wanted to look at would be , well, if someone held MSTR stock, buying it four years ago, and just held on through the ups and downs, ups and downs.
Where would they be compared to if someone held, sold, not at the top, but sold, using these indicators to determine when we were moving into a more bullish or bearish trend, and sold when the trend was dying or reversing in the other direction, I would say would they be better off selling, taking profits, or holding?
And in the scenario that I considered, again , historical, I'm not saying that anyone should do anything like that in the future. The scenario I considered, selling and paying the tax, turned out to be much better in this scenario than holding the asset. Okay, so this is what you can expect on this channel.
Subscribe if you are new to this channel. Uh, you 'll see more like this . Hmm, I will always look at these charts to share what is happening in the market, hmm, and see trends. And that's it. If you want to leave a comment below about what else you would like to see, let me know. And again, none of this is tax advice, financial advice, or legal advice.
These are simply historical examples where I like to notice trends and see how I can apply it to my future investing and trading. So I hope this is helpful to you. Have a nice day. And I hope you like the run that we're seeing on these assets, because it's really nice to see it, and it's really nice to see some bullish sentiment. Be healthy.
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