US Stocks Are in a Long-Term Bull Market, Ed Yardeni Says

요약 보기

미국 경제는 제조업(상품) 침체와 서비스업 호조가 괴리된 상태이나 노동시장과 소비자는 견고함. 고금리 장기화는 정상적 금리 수준으로 보며 주식시장 강세 지속 가능. 장기 강세장 전제하에 IT·산업재·금융이 유망하고 중형주(S&P 400)가 대형주보다 낫다는 견해. 소형주는 이익 정체와 금리 민감도 때문에 비관적.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Look, I don't want to get too in the weeds at Dow Theory. I know there's some big believers in that and of course, a lot of naysayers. But one thing I don't think is debatable right now is that there had been this sort of disconnect, I think, between what was going on in the manufacturing part of this economy and the services side of the economy.

02. Is that a concern? It really hasn't been a concern to us. We've been anticipating and perceiving that we in a recession, but it's been a goods recession. You know, we had that massive buying binge after the lockdowns were lifted where people wanted to go out and shop. They couldn't really do much in services.

03. So we saw just record spending on goods. And then it all kind of came to a halt in around March 2021. So everybody got loaded up with goods above what they wanted. Then they started seeing the services were opening up. What's interesting is the goods didn't take a dive. They just kind of went sideways for a while and they're still going sideways.

04. And anything related to goods like trucking, like train transportation has been also kind of been in a stall state. So that's the weak part of the economy. The services is doing absolutely fine. Well, then that gets to the question though, too, as to which direction the signals are going. Are we learning more about the economy based on what we're seeing in markets or are we learning more about markets?

05. And that psychology based on what we're seeing out of the economic data? Well, the economic data still looks pretty good to us. The initial unemployment claims came down again. There was some concerns that maybe it was about to swing to the upside. But the initial claims, I think, are the key weekly indicator that we have on the labor market, which is the key leading indicator that we have on the consumer.

06. And the consumer looks fine. They're still getting jobs. There's still plenty of job openings. Small businesses are depressed not because their businesses are in good, but because it's hard to find workers. So all in all, I think we're looking at an economy that remains remarkably resilient. And while everybody's coming to conclude that maybe we're going to have higher for longer interest rates because that's what Fed officials are signaling, I view it as normal for a longer word, normal interest rates.

07. I don't find where these level of interest rates, as has the stock market. I think that's a great point. Normal for a longer that's a total mindset shift. It feels then like getting a few more cuts right in that environment. What still gives you the most value? Where can you still find value in a normal forever?

08. Well, I think at this point, my advice to people who've been investing in the market is stay with it. I still like information technology, industrials. Financials have done very well. I mean, there have been some laggards, I suppose, in the financials. Biotech has had a bit of a move here. But all in all, I'm kind of anticipating that the US economy is going to continue to do well.

09. We are starting to see some green shoots in the global economy. So I think all the stocks that are being sold today are probably the ones who are going to make a comeback. And maybe this is just a short term opportunity to hop aboard what I think is a long term bull market. Does that include small caps right now?

10. Well, it's interesting. We've looked at the earnings story and the small caps we're talking about. You know, there's the S&P has five 500. The 400 is the mid-caps and the 600 is the small caps. We're not big fans of the Russell because they've got like 2000 names in there. And a lot of them, quite a few of them aren't making money.

11. So the S&P 600, the small caps, their earnings are kind of flattish. I think they're still more exposed to higher interest rates. Without that are the large caps and they're, I think, having more trouble finding workers and they're finding it harder to use technology to increase productivity. So I think at this point, stay with the large caps.

12. But I think if you want to go down the cap range, I would go to mid-caps and they've done very well to information technology. Mid-Caps have been on fire.