저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 금리 상승기지만 인플레이션이 통제되면 금리 인하가 와 주식 매수의 좋은 진입 시점이라는 주장. 시장 상황: 2022년 약세장으로 S&P500 약 25%, 다우 약 20%, 나스닥 약 35% 하락. 10년물 국채금리는 2020년 여름 0.5%에서 약 4%로 상승. 핵심 논리: 금리는 주식의 '중력'과 같아 상승 시 주가에 하방 압력, 하락 시 '제트연료'처럼 상승 견인. 주가 적정가치는 미래 현금흐름을 금리로 할인한 값이며, 예시에서 금리가 5%에서 10%로 오르면 가치가 26% 감소, 2%로 내리면 크게 상승. 투자 전망: 1~3개월 단기 방향은 불확실하다고 명시, 3~5년 이상 장기로는 좋은 진입점. 분할 매수(평균단가 전략) 권고. 종목 선택 4가지 기준: (1) 단순한 사업구조, (2) 예측 가능한 실적, (3) 경쟁우위(해자), (4) 내재가치 대비 할인된 가격(안전마진). 예시로 Lowe's, Chipotle, Restaurant Brands, Hilton, Universal Music, Canadian Pacific 언급. 언급 종목 방향: 위 보유 종목들을 장기 우량주로 언급(방향 판단은 장기 기준으로 긍정적). 리스크: 인플레이션이 통제되지 않으면 금리 상승 지속, 단기 추가 하락 가능성, 과도한 집중 투자 시 실수의 위험. 출연자 전망: 장기 긍정, 단기는 신중. 영상 말미 광고: Candlestick AI 투자 앱(월 9.99달러) 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
I believe you can be very successful as a stock market investor if you find very high-quality companies and buy them at attractive prices. And I think today, you know, is a very good time. It's a pretty good entry point. However, it's no secret that this year has been difficult for investors in the stock market.
Stocks are in what's called a bear market this year, as prices have fallen more than 20% from their highs. The S&P 500 fell by as much as 25%. The Dow Jones fell by up to 20%, and the technology-focused Nasdaq was the most affected of all, dropping 35% from its peak. That sounds pretty scary to stock market investors, right?
What if I told you that this is actually a great time to buy? This didn't come from me. It comes from billionaire investor Bill Ackman. In this video, we're going to analyze why Ackman thinks now is an excellent time to buy stocks . We'll also reveal Ackman's four-step checklist for choosing great stocks to invest in.
But first, make sure you like this video and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already , because my goal is to make you a better investor by studying the best investors in the world. Let's start with the video. Look, it's much easier to make money in the stock market in a bull market environment, and, you know, a falling interest rate environment is generally a market where asset prices rise.
And so , a rising tide lifts all the ships. So if you only own stocks, I think, you know, we're ... well, right now we're in a rising interest rate environment . So that's obviously more challenging. And I really think what matters is whether central banks around the world are going to stop this runaway inflation.
I would say I think they will . Um, and we're ... you know, what's the new long-term level of inflation? Are we going to be in a world where it's hard to create, you know, with the Federal Reserve ... you know, just, I don't know, 24 months ago, central banks around the world were worried about deflation?
Um, and that has been a very, very dramatic change. And so I think... I think you can be very successful as a stock market investor if you find very high-quality companies and buy them at attractive prices. And I think today, you know, is a very good time. It's a pretty good entry point. Right, you know, March 2020 was obviously a very, very good entry point, and anyone who bought stocks in March 2020— something I advocated on television on March 18, 2020—I said this is a key moment.
I think this is another time when I don't know how well you'll do in the next three, six, or 12 months. It is a highly uncertain world. But in the next three, four, five, or 10 years, it's a pretty good place to be an investor or a good time to commit more capital to the stock markets. Although you have to choose carefully .
You want to own dominant, well-capitalized, super high-quality businesses that you know will still be here, you know, in 30 years. And that's why we own companies like Hilton, Universal Music, Restaurant Brands, and so on. So what you're saying is that whether or not there's a correction in the fourth quarter or whatever, that does n't really matter if you look at the long term, a few years, three, four, five years, now is a good time.
You'll look back on this day and think: yes, it was a good time to buy. Definitely. That doesn't mean the market won't fall further in the next 3 months, right? It is, uh, but yeah, I wouldn't commit all your capital today, right? Keep something in reserve, you know, a little of what they used to call average cost in dollars.
You know, the S&P has fallen, approaching 20% this year. And it wasn't highly overrated, uh, at the beginning of the year. So, I think the prices are fair or cheap. As Bill Ackman mentioned in the clip, the stock market has been hit hard this year due to high inflation and the higher interest rates that accompany it.
Inflation is at its highest rate in generations, and this is alarming the US Federal Reserve. In an attempt to control inflation, the Fed is raising interest rates drastically, and this is negatively impacting stock prices. The hope is that the increase in interest rates will help slow the economy and cool inflation.
In investment, the most widely used metric to measure interest rates in the economy is the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond. Yield is just a fancy way of saying interest rate. This would be the return you could expect to receive for lending money to the U.S. government for 10 years. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was just 0.5% in the summer of 2020 and has since risen to 4%.
This is an almost eightfold increase in just 2 years. Investing in normal times is already difficult, but if we add the increase in interest rates, things get even more complicated. That brings us to today's video sponsor, Candlestick AI. Candlestick is an investment app that uses cutting-edge AI technology to offer you stock picks, ratings, and analysis for just $ 9.99 a month.
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Now, let's go back to the video. In the words of Warren Buffett: " Interest rates are like gravity for stocks." "The higher interest rates rise, the greater the downward pressure on stock prices." Let me explain what I mean . A stock is valued based on the cash it will generate discounted to today using a given interest rate.
This so-called intrinsic value is what the stock is really worth. I know that definition sounds intimidating, but the math is quite simple. Let's see how rising interest rates affect the intrinsic value of stocks. Let's say we have a stock that will generate $20 in cash in the first year. In this example, the stock could increase the cash it generates by $20 per year for 10 years.
That is, $40 in the second year, $60 in the third, until reaching $200 in year 10. For simplicity, we will say that the company ceases operations in year 10, so you will not receive any cash from selling the stock. Now, to determine the value of this stock, we need to discount it using an interest rate.
Let's start with an interest rate of 5%. This gives us a stock price of $787. Now, let's see what happens as interest rates begin to rise. If we take the interest rate we use to 7%, this causes the stock price to fall to $695. Notice how the stock is worth less than before despite producing the same amount of cash.
The only thing that changed was the interest rate. If we raise the interest rate to 10%, we see that the price of our stock falls even further , to $581. Simply increasing the interest rate from 5% to 10% caused the value of our stock in this example to fall by 26%. But given that interest rates are rising, why does Bill Ackman believe now is a great buying opportunity?
It has to do with the fact that he believes the Federal Reserve will be able to control inflation. Once inflation is under control, the Fed can stop aggressively raising interest rates. In fact, the Fed could start lowering interest rates once inflation begins to normalize and the economy weakens. So, going back to our previous example, let's see what happens as interest rates decrease.
We saw that a 10% interest rate resulted in a stock price of $581. Remember, rising interest rates are like gravity for stock prices, pulling them down as rates increase. But on the other hand, lower interest rates are like jet fuel, driving stock prices upward. Let's see how this happens in our example.
Let's lower the interest rate to 8%. This raises our stock price to $654. Let's lower the interest rate even further, to 6%. This causes another increase in our stock price, bringing it to $739. If we go to extremes and lower the interest rate to 2%, the stock price jumps to $ 959. In the clip, Bill Ackman argued that those who buy stocks now will benefit from the boost from lower rates as inflation is brought under control.
As we saw in our example, the decrease in interest rates is positive for all stocks. However, Ackman was quick to point out that investors should not buy just any stock. One must be selective with the stocks one buys. This is because movements in interest rates are notoriously difficult to predict .
You want to buy the right stocks and let the falling rates be an added benefit. This naturally raises the question of what characteristics investors should look for in stocks. But fortunately for us, Ackman has provided a list of criteria he uses at his multibillion-dollar hedge fund, Pershing Square.
Here are Ackman's four criteria for what makes a stock worth buying. The first criterion is that the business must be simple. Observe the stocks in Ackman's portfolio. We have home improvement retailer Lowe's, fast-food restaurant Chipotle, and Restaurant Brands International, a holding company that owns brands such as Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs.
We also have the Hilton hotel chain and the Canadian Pacific railway company . Although these businesses belong to different industries, they all share the common characteristic of being relatively simple businesses. While Bill Ackman went to Harvard, you don't need an Ivy League degree to understand how these businesses work.
If you're watching this video, I guarantee you're probably smart enough to understand how a business like Chipotle works. Compare it to other companies, such as biopharmaceutical stocks, for example. You practically need a PhD in chemistry to even begin to understand the business side of that industry.
The next criterion is that the company must be predictable. This means you should be able to get a rough estimate of how much money the company will make in any given year. Think of predictability as a spectrum. At one extreme, you have highly predictable businesses, such as those that own real estate, for example.
You know that each year that company's profits will grow a little as rents increase. You could project what that company will earn in 5 years from now, and you probably wouldn't be far off . At the other end of the spectrum, you have companies like electric vehicle startups. In 5 years, these companies could be generating billions in sales, or they could be bankrupt and have no sales.
So, if you look at Ackman's portfolio, his stocks definitely fall toward the more predictable end of the spectrum. The third criterion is possibly the most important. The business must have what is known as a moat. Capitalism is brutally competitive. If a business is making a lot of money, someone else will want to come along and take away that business's profits.
A moat is what prevents competitors from destroying a company's profitability. Imagine a castle. In our analogy here, this is a company's ability to generate a large profit. The greater the profit, the more rival companies will go after that castle. The moat around the castle in this image is what keeps those competitors away and allows the company to remain highly profitable.
Let's take the railway industry as an example, Ackman's Canadian Pacific holding company. Canadian Pacific has a huge moat. The railway lines that the company uses to move goods took hundreds of years to build. As a result, if you are a business and want to move your products by rail through this part of North America, you don't have many options.
He has to decide between Canadian Pacific or its rival, Canadian National. If someone wanted to start another company to compete with Canadian Pacific, it would cost tens of billions of dollars. And this is assuming he could obtain government permission to build the thousands of kilometers of tracks needed.
This enormous moat allows Canadian Pacific to be extremely profitable and prevents any competitor from entering the industry and invading that profitability. Now let's move on to the fourth criterion. If the stock has met the first three criteria, simple, predictable and with a moat, it now has to meet one more: be sold at a discount.
As we discussed earlier, a stock is valued based on the cash flow it will generate. That is known as the intrinsic value of a stock. Think of intrinsic value as what the stock is really worth, which can sometimes be significantly different from what it is currently trading at. While going into detail about how to calculate intrinsic value is too much to cover in this video, here's how to think about it.
Let's say you determine that the intrinsic value of a stock is $100. You don't necessarily want to buy this stock when it's trading at $100. Instead, you might want to buy this stock when it's trading at, say, $70. That $30 difference between what the stock is currently trading at and its intrinsic value is what's known as your margin of safety.
This safety margin prevents you from losing money if your estimate of the intrinsic value turns out to be incorrect. A margin of safety is especially important when you have a concentrated portfolio like Ackman's. He only owns a handful of shares in his portfolio. This means that even if you make a mistake in just one of your actions , the results can be disastrous .
These four criteria have helped Ackman become one of the most respected investors in the world. Even so, they are simple enough that you can start applying them to your own investment strategy. You should look to invest in businesses that are, one, simple, two, predictable, three, have a moat, and four, are currently trading below their intrinsic value.
Although these four things may sound very simplistic and basic, practically nobody does them. As Charlie Munger likes to say, make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler. So there you have it. I hope you enjoyed the video. Be sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already , because our investor community is almost at 200,000 people.
It would be even better if you were part of it. Also, check out this other video on the channel; I 'm sure you'll learn a lot from it. Thanks for watching and we'll talk soon.
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