저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
Cramer는 반도체 조정을 과도한 매도로 보고 Micron·AMD·Corning 저가 매수를 권함. Walmart 하락은 과잉이며 섹터 로테이션은 보통 2~3일을 넘기지 않는다고 주장. SpaceX 락업 해제(9억1150만주, 유통 증가율 141%)는 이미 주가에 반영됐으나 단기 변동성은 클 것으로 봄. 실업수당 청구는 19.9만건으로 노동시장이 강하다고 평가. 이후 AI 사이클은 수요 소멸이 아니라 공급 제약 국면이라며 Nvidia·Broadcom 인프라 수요를 긍정적으로 언급.
다듬은 글
take. And some of this is wrong, in my opinion , wrongly done because of Meta's turnaround in the data center space. I like Micron the most, as I explained last night. The potential for profitability is there. There is profit, but the price/ earnings ratio is too low. I like it. I also believe that the decline in Corning stock, GLW, was the largest of any stock in the S &P 500 index today.
Well, that seems excessive. Fiber can replace copper in all of these data centers. By the way, like connectors, and maybe one day inside the chips themselves, replacing that hot copper. I like AMD on this rollback. I know it's not that big of a pullback, but you almost never get this opportunity to buy these stocks with this mix of GPUs and CPUs, both of which are in high demand.
We recently had Gary Dickerson , CEO of Applied Materials, AMAT, on the show. And its semiconductor business is in a long-term bull market due to the chip shortage we keep talking about. It will take years and years to produce enough of this equipment to overcome the shortage. Okay, here's another one.
How about Walmart? Did you see this? Walmart fell 5%. Closed down 3.9% today. Do you know that they are in the red for the year ? The thesis here is this: oil has become cheaper, and gasoline will follow suit, so consumers will no longer need to shop at Walmart to save money. I think this is nonsense.
I know it's hard sometimes to pay 37 times Walmart's earnings, but they're already down 26 points from their high. This seems excessive to me. And you? Hey, by the way, TJX's drop is really excessive. But the point is that while rotations don't end in one session, they rarely last longer than two or three.
Now you get a chance to sell losers at a premium and switch to winners at a discount. So often in this market you look back and berate yourself for not taking advantage of breaks in the strongest stocks. I bet this is one of those breaks. Don't miss this. Don't miss a second of "Mad Money." Follow @JimCramer on X.
Have questions? Tweet Kramer #MadMentions. profits, and these companies are extremely healthy, doing very well, doesn't always mean that the stock price is going up. Yes. Moving on to the next big topic here on Wall Street, and that's the SpaceX lockup period, which is now ending, expiring. There will be several dates, even up until 2027 , when more shares will become available .
But what's most interesting about this, and Ben Emmons almost caught it, he said it's like a mini-IPO because of how big it is, because 911 million private shares of SpaceX are becoming available for sale, which increases the turnover by 141% from the current 646 million public shares. Very unusual.
Possibly the most of any S&P 500 company, I read that somewhere, though I can't confirm. This is a big event, isn't it? The restrictions expire today, August 6, with 911.5 million shares available for sale. Now it's important to understand that some of this is already built into the price. That's why the stock was trading at $108 at yesterday's close , not $150 or $200 as it had been before.
Much of this is already factored in, so be careful, and one more thing , Nicole, remember: just because you have the right to sell doesn't mean you will necessarily sell. Some stocks will be sold, and the stock may go through a rough period, but all of this will be absorbed by the market. Think about it.
911 million shares . This morning, 40 million were already sold in the premarket, and we haven't even opened yet. So, yes, I expect the volumes to be high. I expect trade to be, you know, somewhat volatile, as it has been. But yeah, this is a big day for SpaceX, how will the market perceive and absorb those 911 million shares, Nicole.
Yes, and look, he also mentioned shorts. He wrote that there is a major stock unlocking happening. He called it a historic event for an S&P 500 company, and it attracted large short positions. 35% of the shares in free float were sold short, according to data compiled by S3 partners. So, despite the short selling, it's like a mini-IPO.
So we'll have to wait and see what happens next. But it can really cause some volatility, it erodes the share, and right now the low for SpaceX was 104, I think. And the maximum is 225. Let's see what today brings . Next, what about unemployment claims , which came in at just under 200,000? Great numbers on unemployment claims.
They remain historically low, below 200,000 people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. The figure was 199,000. Last week's figure of 197,000 was revised to 198,000. So the four-week average of jobless claims is now below 200,000—198.75. The number of unemployed people continuing to receive benefits is 1.801 million.
So this is extremely strong labor market data . Those who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time. Now the question is, is this a continuation of the low- hire, low- layoff economy we find ourselves in? Or, Nicole, will we see, like last month, a decline in the unemployment rate? Is n't that right?
Remember, a month ago we had a decline in the total number of jobs outside agriculture, but unemployment decreased from 4.3% to 4.2%. It is now expected to remain at this level. They're forecasting about 88,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, but with claims data like this, you're involuntarily watching the screen, waiting for a possible further drop in unemployment, Nicole.
OK. Hmm, let's see. Last but not least, can we talk about oil? I mean, I want to mention AI Trading has just entered its next phase. Something has changed in the field of AI. Not necessarily fundamental indicators, but how investors view this opportunity. For months, the semiconductor sector has indeed been the easiest area for investment in the market.
AI spending was rising, demand for chips was exploding, margins were widening, and investors continued to buy the winners' stocks. Then this trend suddenly broke, and Micron, Nvidia, Broadcom and a number of other semiconductor companies experienced severe fluctuations. This created a much more serious issue.
Is the AI cycle really ending, or is the market simply shedding excess positions? The evidence increasingly pointed to the second explanation. The most important thing has not changed. Hyperscalers continue to expand, and they are spending money because they still are investing huge amounts of capital i is that these companies are not talking about the disappearance of demand.
They talk about capacity constraints, which is a completely different problem. If demand were to fall, investors would worry about excess inventory. Instead, the industry is trying to build infrastructure as quickly as possible. And that brings us directly to Nvidia. Nvidia has already . But after months of relatively weak stock performance compared to some sector peers, the company has finally started to show signs of life.
Then Elon Musk gave Nvidia another important support. SpaceX is preparing for a massive expansion of its AI computing infrastructure, and Nvidia is poised to receive a significant share of those costs. no longer limited to traditional cloud companies. It is expanding into new categories: aerospace technologies, sovereign AI projects, corporate computing, and specialized data centers for edge AI.
Even a new category potentially creates another source of demand for semiconductors. And that's why investors shouldn't focus only on headlines about the GPU market . The real opportunity may lie in a tight infrastructure ecosystem. Take Broadcom for example. The company is not just riding the wave of the AI trend.
Its specialized silicon networking infrastructure and connectivity products are becoming increasingly important as AI clusters grow and become more complex.
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