저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 재정적자와 부채 확대(약 4조 달러 증가 우려)를 경고하며, 기준 금리 상승 시 미국채 매도와 금·비트코인 선호가 나타날 수 있다고 주장. 신용등급 강등과 엔캐리 트레이드 청산 리스크로 국채 매도 확대 가능성 제기. 에너지 인센티브 삭감으로 전력 부족·인플레이션 우려. 비트코인은 단기 변동성은 있으나 장기적으로 유리하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
As rates go to those levels, you'll delever from the United States. You'll sell US debt. You'll own things like gold and Bitcoin. If you're curious about what's happening to gold and Bitcoin, they started to spike in the last few days. You'll have ratings organizations that add to this cascade by downgrading the United States.
That happened on Friday. You'll have very smart people starting to signal that this is a much harder problem than they initially thought. That's how I personally interpreted Elon's comments over the last few days. So, what was the house supposed to do? I think what they were supposed to do was implement some form of austerity.
They were supposed to, by the will of the people, pass a rescission bill. They were given that rescission bill. It was just $9 billion. Chamath, a billionaire investor and CEO, is here today to comment on the current and future status of the American economy. According to Chamath, the current state of the market is indicating more serious problems that lie beyond the surface.
Rising debt levels, slow consumer demand, and geopolitical volatility are the main causes of economic worry. He emphasizes in his most recent comments how institutional investors are preparing for the effects and why he thinks the Fed's actions might not be sufficient to stabilize the situation going forward.
Additionally, Chamath discusses Bitcoin and its role in this larger financial framework. He used to refer to it as schmuck insurance, but now he views Bitcoin as a calculated hedge in a risky environment. He clarifies, however, that volatility is far from over. Chamath thinks we're about to enter a critical period with markets twitching in response to every Fed decision and earning shortfall.
If you're intrigued by bold predictions and deep financial insights, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on notifications for more engaging content. Thank you for your support and enjoy the video. Some focus from the government that we would be have more austerity measures, balance the budget.
Now, it looks like we're going to pour gasoline on the fire. What are your thoughts? I think we have be careful here. So, Jason, the political calculus will be for the president to decide how much credit he actually wants to take for this bill. Because even though it has his name on it, the contents of the bill are different in actual facts than what I think he intended.
And what I mean by that is when you look inside of what happened in the 11th hour last night, it's disappointing. If DOGE was meant to be a reflection of the American voting population's desire for meaningful reform in government, cost controls, some form of austerity, and to get this debt spiral in check, this is the opposite of that.
What happened was in the 11th hour, you had a handful of people abstain. You had one person that passed away in the last few days. You had one person that fell asleep on the floor of the house, so he wasn't even woken up for the vote. And in the middle of all of that chaos, what happened was all kinds of things were added and attached and canceled at the last minute.
Because what happens is you have to have these puts and takes as Freeberg described. If you want to spend over here, you have to find a cut over there. But I think what happened was there was really not a lot of financial literacy used to decide what to actually put in and what to cut. And that lack of discipline is going to create, I think, a negative set of consequences.
So, what are those consequences? A set of things that I think will be hurtful to average Americans. Those are way beyond what most people thought was a reasonable place to be for the United States economy. And so, what will the implications be as rates go to those levels? you'll deleverage from the United States, you'll sell US debt, you'll own things like gold and Bitcoin.
If you're curious about what's happening to gold and Bitcoin, they started to spike in the last few days. You'll have ratings organizations that add to this cascade by downgrading the United States. That happened on Friday. You'll have very smart people starting to signal that this is a much harder problem than they initially thought.
That's how I personally interpreted Elon's comments over the last few days. So, what was the house supposed to do? I think what they were supposed to do was implement some form of austerity. They were supposed to, by the will of the people, pass a rescission bill. They were given that rescission bill.
It was just $9 billion. They couldn't even pass a $9 billion rescission. And instead, they passed a $4 trillion inflation to our debt. Now, you hand this to the Senate. The Senate is in a very difficult place as well. Do they want to {quote} {unquote} claim victory and say, "Here you go, President Trump.
Here's your bill." But, they'll further bastardize this thing, and it will be even further away from what I think benefits MAGA and benefits Main Street. So, who does it benefit? Current course and speed right now, this bill is about traditional Republicans and traditional Democrats circling the wagon.
You're going to see energy prices spike. You're gutting the number of electrons that will be available for things like AI. You're going to increase Medicare prices. And the math is wrong. So, when you sensitize this thing to a four and a half or five or five and a quarter rate, so meaning not what the CBO used, but the real conditions on the ground, this thing is an albatross.
And I think unfortunately for President Trump's agenda and for a MAGA movement, this is the worst of all conditions. The financial markets will punish this. Chamath has been informing investors for months that the necessary components for a significant market shift are coming together. He thinks a period of significant price increases is about to begin.
However, things are changing now. The market is preparing for a possible shock and investors are becoming more wary as worries about tariffs mount. While Bitcoin may likely experience short-term fluctuations, perhaps even as part of a wider downward trend, Chamath noted in a recent conversation that the long-term picture is still favorable.
He still believes there is room for big gains in the future, even with the market's volatility and pressure. To remain up to date on the most recent developments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and the digital economy, please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable post notifications.
And then the last thing I'll say is now to top it all off, I think that Jerome Powell will see the writing on the wall. Many aspects of this thing are inflationary and if they're not handled well by the Senate, he has a lot of room to actually increase interest rates. Oof. So, I would just say that the Senate has an incredibly difficult job.
I think the president has an even more difficult job about what to do right now, but the house did nobody favors. They did not do anybody a favor. But this is where I will say I'll put my money where my mouth is and I'll put the chips on the table to say this is the moment. This is the moment where we either re-underwrite what we voted for or we mistakenly pass this Christmas tree concoction.
It does have President Trump's signature on the top of it. It does have some features that he asked for, but what I hope he sees and realizes is the details here matter. And without some technical maneuvering in the Senate, this is a bad bill as constructed. And if it passes, forget what any of us think, the bond markets will act decisively and they're going to go in one direction and it's away from us.
And I just hope that we figure this out. Since 2007-2008, every now and then the markets give you free money. One of the most obvious free money trades was the yen carry trade. And in order to to execute that trade, you're effectively leveraging treasuries against the Japanese bond market. What he's saying is that there is risk that that trade unwinds.
When that trade unwinds, what you're going to have are net sellers of up to, as Freeberg said, a trillion plus dollars of US treasuries. What will that do? It will further exacerbate the markets' reluctance to own US treasuries, which means yields go even higher. Which means I think interest rates for businesses and individuals go higher.
Correct. only way to keep those interest rates low will be for the Federal Reserve to try and step in and buy those bonds, which will devalue the dollar. 81% of the incremental energy that's generated in the United States last year came from private enterprises that were investing in short-term forms of power that have a credit and a transfer market tied to it.
This is just the financial machinery. This is how Blackstone and Goldman Sachs and Brookfield and all of these big players move tens and hundreds of billions of dollars around. They changed those rules at the 11th hour. What is the impact of that? Elon foreshadowed it. Nick, maybe you can show the headline of the article.
He said, "We could be running into a power capacity issue by mid next year." Now, if we knew that, why would we take the short-term incentive away to generate more electrons? All the great things that David has done, that the president has done on AI, I mean, we'll talk about what happened in the Middle East.
But, when the rubber meets the road, and you actually have a shortage of electrons because these financial actors, they're not, you know, and in fairness to them, they're acting rationally. You take the financial incentive away, and you can't underwrite this thing. What are they going to do? They're just going to stop doing it.
So, in the absence of electrons, what happens? Prices go up. It's inflationary, and now you'll have to allocate electrons. Do the electrons go to an AI data center, or does it go to a home? In a different example, actually on the residential side, places like Florida, I think there was like an incentive for like batteries.
So, if you Batteries. to get hit by a hurricane, you can buy these big battery systems from Tesla, as an example, but there are other ones, Generac and whatever, train. That was cut out. And so, in Texas, all of these impacts will have negative consequences. My point is, I think you have to really look at what happened in the 11th hour, and fix those things because the problem with these plans is you can't look at gains that are in years six through 10 to justify pain in years one through five.
You can't do that because I understand how that mathematically makes sense. It doesn't make sense practically for the average American. It's just not how life works. You don't go into a J curve, you know, we do that as investors, right? But, you don't do that as a normal American, which is be on the wrong side of the economy for four or five years in the hopes that years six and seven are good.
That's the point. That has to get fixed. Finally, Chamath issues a strong caution. He's doing more than just studying the market. He's acting on his words. He asserts that we are at a pivotal juncture. A significant choice on a bill that appears to be positive on the surface, but has many hidden risks is going to be made by lawmakers.
Even if the law might be approved by the president, Chamath warns that it could cause financial ruin if significant changes are not made. He cautions that the bond market will respond quickly and adversely if this bill is passed in its current form. Global investors may start selling off US Treasuries, which would raise yields and ultimately interest rates.
The entire economy would be affected, making it more costly for households to borrow money, for businesses to operate, and eventually for the government to pay off its debt. He also emphasizes the potential for a once profitable financial transaction to go awry by borrowing cheaply in Japan to purchase US Treasuries.
The collapse of that deal might lead to a wave of foreign selling of US debt that could reach trillions of dollars. That is a threat to the financial stability of the United States, not just a technological problem. The Federal Reserve might be compelled to step in and purchase additional bonds as rates climb.
But doing so would probably weaken the dollar and increase inflation. In addition to banking, Kamath highlights the energy industry. He notes that private businesses have been deterred from investing in energy infrastructure by recent adjustments to financial incentives. The United States might experience a power shortfall in the absence of those investments.
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