저자: Kevin · 외국인
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oh my gosh I think the banks are blatantly lying to us about the data that they just reported in their financial releases about the state of the economy and it could mean the economy is actually on much more of a Brink than they're letting on this is really bad and ordinarily I would think I don't know maybe I'm just reading into this too much but then I come across as I'm doing this research I come across a headline from 34 minutes ago Jamie Diamond finishes up his 1 million share sale of JP Morgan shares so 1 million shares that's like $180 million and then I'm like okay well that's fine maybe he's just taken some tendies right I'm sure he's done that before wrong this is actually the first time that he sold since be since joining the bank 20 years ago he has not sold any shares in his history instead now in February he selling 820,000 shares and he just sold another 180,000 shares oh man what's happening well in this video I'm going to break down exactly what I think is happening because at first don't get me wrong I go into this I'm like come on come on we've got GDP that's like 2.6% according to the Atlanta fed job numbers are coming in good things are looking Okay Kevin listen Kevin just this morning we had fantasti retail sales numbers okay and I covered them and I too this morning wrote wow what a blowout this is really interesting I I literally wrote it here it is blowout big beat all of the numbers came in higher than expected and the previous numbers were revised up more commentaries now appearing about the low Landing economy okay great but then we edit in the inflation adjustment later in the day we know these aren't inflation adjustment adjusted but I go in later and I'm like let's compare these year-over-year so I look at the year-over-year numbers I'm like hm motor vehicle parts are only up 1% in retail sales go wait a minute inflation right now is like 3 and half% that means motor vehicle part sales are actually down 2 and 1.2% but wait a minute motor vehicle parts are part of CPI inflation which has been skyrocketing motor vehicle part prices have absolutely been skyrocketing to some account they're up 40% where wages are up like 18% it's crazy so why would they say that retail sales are only up 1% oh well that could simply be explained by people being able to buy less because they have less money so you didn't actually get a 1% year-over-year beat you got 1% minus 3 and a half% inflation you're attive -25% retail sales for motor vehicle parts despite prices being up way more than wages same thing for furniture building materials and every single year-over-year category in the retail sales report the highest C category was miscellaneous retailers like pet stores and they were up 2 and a half% or 2.7% also negative when you adjust for inflation so then I'm like okay wait a minute so we get it like sometimes the numbers are presented in a cooked manner is this really a big problem so then I put my hat on and I go okay well are we ever negative on retail sales for a longer period of time and the answer is yes we are we're negative on retail sales in recession and now oh okay that's not great then of course we have gold at400 which some people have been saying is snuffing out something bad coming after all Ts Lombard suggests that gold 3x in 19 2 to 3x in 1972 78 in 2008 skipping thec recession okay that's not good so wait a minute so we've got retail sales numbers that are a little fugazi the banks are lying to us which I'm about to get to gold skyro marketing which could be because of geopolitical issues uh the Iran Israel issu is a problem that could also potentially explain what's going on with inflation expectations but we have not had an Iran Israel problem all year we've had an Israel Gaza problem all year but look since January inflation expectations have gone straight up we're on the fiveyear at 2.57% and we're peing we are skyrocketing and so the question is how long can Jerome Powell keep up the charade the BS charade that inflation expectations are going to remain anchored not to mention the inversion last year of the 2os 10 curve led to a lot of pain in the stock market okay but this is where a lot of people go but Kevin but Kevin listen Kevin I already went to metkevin.com lifee and I got my life insurance in as little as 5 minutes I already did that the reality is Kevin inflation just doesn't matter anymore rates they just don't matter anymore earnings are so Gucci right now everything's fine we don't have to worry about pricing and rates anymore because we're past that and this is an idea that we've actually brought up this morning we're like are markets just ignoring rates and is that healthy I mean since December well in December we're like oh yeah markets are pricing in seven rate cuts and now we're pricing in 1.5 rate cuts and the stock market's been mostly flat well until of course today see today we broke the 50-day moving average and we broke this long six-month Trend we've had on the S&P 500 that's not great neither of these are great we're topping out on BTC The Q's AI chips we're topping out on the S&P 500 everything's topping out right at the same time we're getting potential potentially in my opinion it's just my opinion straight up fraud from the banks and the banks lead earning season so my question is what happens when earnings all of a sudden aren't actually that good anymore and at the same time Jerome poell finally goes H yeah this is a problem well I'll tell you what happens all of a sudden the Market's going to go interest rates matter again uh well that's not going to be good that's not going to be good and that's not going to be pleasant it's not going to be pleasant at all but why could it possibly happen why would why would the economy have a problem well a lot of people have been asking me about vanon mises lately the Austrian Economist ludic Von mises German well he did all his writings in German so this is a summary I've been reading primers on lud Ludwick just to catch up what I always like to do is I like to read I read a lot of things and then you got to come back to it cuz you're going to forget so I'm like all right let's break out the texts again on ludvick and then listen I just want you to listen to this got I put it up on screen but just listen to this and then we're going to get to JP Morgan and the disasters at the banks and how they're lying to you okay listen to this all you have to do is listen when the quantity of money in circulation like inflation Rises for some reason people feel richer and spend more you know like stimulus checks but this extra spending merely drives up prices leaving nobody better off such is the story of inflation Mees and his colleague fredi saw that maybe it was actually worse than that though spending booms and these sort of inflationary booms actually lead entrepreneurs to believe that there's a real increase in demand for their products Tesla meanwhile the surge in credit makes loans cheaper so entrepreneurs borrow more to invest more and produce more but this is mistaken overinvestment known as malinvestment malinvestment which is based on false price signals and before long the public spending spree is curbed because things are too expensive like Auto rates which are absolutely insane right now and Auto Loan delinquent quencies are spiking at an increase of over 75% at least per the New York fed that's like 7% annualized right now but anyway by printing money governments can create an artificial boom but this must inevitably be followed by a bust a painful adjustment process takes place as malinvestments are liquidated that doesn't sound good but but but wait a minute like things should be okay right I mean things are getting better right the US has been resilient the UK is growing out of recession again Germany's industrial sector is growing again Bloomberg GDP forecasts are at about 2.9% China showing signs of rebounding things seem okay right okay that's true things seem okay on the surface but what if we start looking under the hood well we don't want to look at government interest payments because those look horrible but let's scroll past that and let's just go to the chart that has government interest payments as a percentage of GDP before we get to the bank disaster oh and that's more normal oh wait but there's a problem with this chart and see identifying problems like this are the kinds of things in perspective as well as what you're about to learn about the banks that I teach in the courses on building your wealth if you're not part of those yet we have a coupon expiring this Friday you ought to be part of them we're releasing new lectures this Sunday great new content and in the and sight group you get all my Buy sell alerts when I'm trading this morning we came up with some pretty solid strategies on how to trade for the day now I wasn't perfect with my trading exactly but we had about a thousand a thousand course members watching this morning as we came up with a strategy said look here's the game plan here's what happens if isra if Israel does this here's where to go if Iran does this came up with a game plan that if followed perfectly would have done very well today now what do we have over here this chart only updates annually so we don't actually get an update on this chart that's skyrocketing on interest payments by the fed the federal government as a percentage of GDP until guess when ah next march crap well if next march were in the middle of a recession and this number over here is like way up here what good does that do us as a leading indicator nothing it does nothing okay but Kevin you've shown us before that Consumer Debt Service payments as a percentage of disposable personal income are stable they're not actually way higher than at like do levels they're higher than where or at the highest points where we were pre-co but they're not like at extreme levels right like the mid 80s that's true but what screws up this chart remember this is a chart on consumer debt payments as a percentage of disposable income that's a way of basically saying if you have $100 left over after you pay your rent and your food and then you have $10 of debt you're at 10% all right that's the money you have left over how much is going to debt right now we're sitting somewhere around 5.7 5.8% just to explain that what could change that well if your $100 goes to 50 then that doubles well what's been the trajectory for January February of 2024 oh oh that's not good now you can make the argument that this real disposable income level is just being affected by inflation but then it should have been affected by inflation here and you can make the argument that maybe we're just going back to levels where we previously were but it's the trend that's the concern we're about to go negative again if this trend continues and what if we don't inflation adjust it because inflation numbers came in a little hotter in J and Feb right okay don't inflation adjust it crap the numbers going down as well nearly straight down as well that's not great and it leads into what we're seeing at credit card delinquencies which this only updates quarterly but we're way higher than where we were in the 10 years before the pandemic we're going back to 2024 levels on credit card delinquency delinquencies here okay so then I thought to myself but that's all old data it's all like Q4 data what data is going to give me some some juice about the trajectory of things going forward no it's not Q4 autol loan delinquencies where the fed's telling us uh you know we're seeing 8.5% of credit card balances and 7.7% of auto loans transitioning into delinquency on an annualized basis that's not great but we'll ignore that portion for moment let's go to the actual Banks and let's understand what the banks are saying because this whole video is based on the premise that the banks are lying through their teeth to us now you might be thinking to yourself but Kevin the banks always lie through their teeth how is that a surprise fine but this is even more blatant than I've ever seen before and that is what gets scary now first you have to know something when it comes to Banks there are these things called Provisions for credit losses that sounds complicated but it's basically kind of like doing this you and your girlfriend sit down and you go hey honey we're going to have to put some money aside just in case that water heater blows and we think that water heater is going to cost us $2500 to install because we don't know a good plumber so we're going to get ripped off we need to set aside $2500 for that water he okay honey well we'll set aside $200 a month for it and then we'll have nearly $2,500 and we'll just cut out some of the Christmas expenses and then we have $2,500 okay we'll get to it okay so that's a way of setting up an allowance for an expense that you think is coming with the banks you're actually allowed to lower your earnings by taking a write off for losses you think you're going to incur but if you just happen to think everything's going to normalize and be okay I guess you don't actually have to take those losses and you could use that to sort of manipulate your earnings now that would only be concerning if some other numbers were getting really bad right like like how about charge offs hm okay well let's see what's going on with credit losses versus Charge offs so credit losses are you saving for the water heater a charge off is kind of like this schmuck owes us $11,000 he's never going to pay let's just write him off and get him out of our life and forget that he owes us $1,000 that's a charge off okay so let's see what happens between the two ready for it you'll see exactly what I'm seeing and and it ain't pretty first JP Morgan H okay what does JP Morgan have for us well I want you to see this the provision for credit losses is plummeting look at this right here $2.7 billion of or credit losses provisioned in the fourth quarter of 2023 but then you go over here to q1 hey we need to pump up that net income so let's take fewer credit losses we'll take 1.8 nobody will notice that we just propped up the numbers by $800 million which wow that $800 million is exactly what we need to show a year-over-year growth number literally the difference in net income between q123 and q1 1224 is $800 million ah Shucks we are growing honey we're doing great or you're lying to yourself that's JP Morgan but wait it gets more worse let's look at the trend of charge offs so remember these are people you're saying hey schmuck I'm not going to get any money from you you suck I'll take the loss q1 2023 and we're going to go quarter by quarter here you ready for this card services charge offs 922 million 1.1 billion 1.2 billion 1.4 billion nearly 1.7 billion add up the totals same thing we literally increased charge offs from 1 .0 billion to 1.8 billion that's an 80% increase year-over-year in charge offs so you're literally saying hey schmuck you suck I'm writing you off 80% more than you were were at the start of 2023 let that snc in for a moment but wait a minute what about Card Services net charge offs so for Card Services we literally just went from 2.07% charge offs to 3.3 2% so we just increased those charge offs 60% and what's their response in their earnings call their response is literally we continue to expect 2024 card net charge offs to be below 3 and half% so think about that for a moment okay charge offs went up 60% and on the earnings call when they're asked about it they're like what we continue to think it'll be below this extremely high level and don't mind that the trend is skyrocketing nothing to see here but we're doing BuyBacks and don't mind that Jamie Diamond is selling okay now maybe that's just a fluke maybe that's just a fluke and maybe they're not lying to us oh but wait there's more I'm telling you by the end of this by the end of this analysis you will want to be with the thousand people that were in our live course member live stream this morning understanding how to trade this market and analyze the crap that's going on you pay once you get lifetime access need a bundle coupon email us at staff ATM kevin.com so what do we have right here Wells Fargo net charge offs were stable from the fourth quarter oh well that sounds good Kevin doesn't that violate what you just said wait for it net charge offs were stable from the fourth quarter and we repurchased 6.1 billion dollars of common stock so nothing to worry here we're buying back stock okay great so I go deeper into your financials what were your charge offs in the quarter ended q1 2023 so last year oh 5 $64 million hm okay $564 million what were they now oh $1.1 billion wait so your charge offs are up 105% from q1 but don't worry folks we're stable compared to the fourth quarter stable bad you're like stable at Double more than double what you were last year okay that's not great but look at this beautiful buyback oh and don't worry we made the provision for credit loss number look smaller in q1 the way we were able to do that is we took our net charge offs and then rather than taking an allowance for credit losses we actually gave us a smaller allowance for credit losses which is kind of like taking earnings back like basically giving ourselves earnings so we gave ourselves $219 million and now we're able to say hey look our total provision for credit losses were actually less than what they were last year because we just manipulated the books right in front of your face and nobody said anything I'm joking because the level of here is massive and we're about to get to the earnings call where you'll see some more but before we get there let's go to City oh okay what do we have here City Group cost of credit was up approximately 2.4 billion in the first quarter of 2024 compared with 2 billion in the prior year primarily driven by higher credit cards net credit loss partially offset by a lower allowance for credit losses wait a minute what oh okay your reserve for that water heater you normally grow that Reserve by 241 million or 397 million how much did you grow it by this quarter 21 million in other words you barely grew it while at the same time what happened to net losses oh last q1 1.3 billion this q1 2.3 billion a 77% increase in credit card charge offs at City Bank that's three banks in a row then of course we saw Jamie Diamond sell but wait folks there's more what did Wells Fargo tell us on the earnings call okay so their earnings call they get asked what are you guys thinking for a peak in net charge offs smart analysts you want to hear what the senior vice president over at Wells Fargo says and keep in mind there's salesy stuff in between this that I realize it's very salesy it is more bullish they're saying look everything's performing on top of what we would have expected maybe we're even doing better credit quality looks good things seem to be good great that's really bullish but what did they actually also right and that's what I want you to pay attention to and you have to sort of evaluate that yourself okay I just want you to read this red for a moment here we're seeing faster growth in new accounts and New Balances coming on okay well that's half bullish because it means Wells Fargo growing right but it also means people are taking on more debt okay that's not great so we got to do some reading between the lines here right then listen to this at some point charge offs should Peak and you'll start to see some normal behavior then we go bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish right because they're like saying hey we spent a lot of time looking at the underlying things we think things are going to like they're part in their normal phase of maturation we think things are normalizing and then listen to this line and as it Peaks we'll sort of let you know when we feel like we're there but it should be peing over the coming quarters in other words we have no idea when these charge offs are actually going to Peak but it should be peaking soon and as soon as we have more clarity on when the numbers are actually going to Peak don't worry we'll let you know too but in the meantime we'll be dumping our shares folks welcome to finance in America o burn that sucks so I'm shocked I just want to be transparent here maybe I shouldn't be shocked that the banks are lying but this is blatant this is like blunt lying now hey maybe everything's fine maybe everything's going to be a okay but let's just say it doesn't take many straws like Iran Israel combined with this sort of weakening at Banks to make me really grateful I've got some more cash on the sidelines now some people like to say things like oh well you're just trying to find a bearish point of view to reiterate why you're in cash I don't think so see I went to cash early March I wish I went to Mar uh cash a little bit earlier because that's when we really started seeing some red flags I've been bullish since the end of 2022 I started an ETF around that time and have been pretty bullish inflation was going away it was falling everything was going good now it's possible that everything that we had in the boom of 22 and three in terms of like oh wow earnings are beating in 23 over the 2022 hole right the pain of 2022 and the transitory inflation it's possible all of that was just fugazi backed up by who knows excess savings or whatever and now we got to pay the piper or as van you know Von Mei says we got to clear out the Mal investment that's not good so did the bad data and the bad indicators come first or did Kevin being bearish come first well I think the bad data came first I wish I went bearish first I wish I could take credit for that but let's just be real I'm using the data to try to be bullish to justify why I should take the risk and leap of faith of buying stocks right now and I'm looking at it and going maybe I need a a little more cash on the sidelines than it's not good so yeah I'm optimistic about two things right now an expiring coupon code on Friday email us at staff ATM kevin.com if you have a bundle code request which you can bundle up with our event in June it's going to be a big event about to announce some really major speakers so the price will be going up after we do that and of course get yourself lifee paid promotion but both Lauren and I use it and it's great never had a problem with it see you soon
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